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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #1526
    Quote Originally Posted by H1b2006 View Post
    well. 4-5 months will pass by in a jiffy by June 2021 we should be knowing if eggs are hatching are not..hope so they will hatch. 120 K spillover is once in a lifetime never happened before and might not happen before aswell from FB to EB. if this 120k doesnt help us, then we need divine intervention to change GC country cap limits removal.

    Just Keep praying!! Just like Gabba fortress is breached, we can Breach our Immgration backlogs!!
    Been current since November 2020 with Sep 2009 PD. No RFE so far and last RFE was back in 2016.
    TSC; EB2-I: PD: 17-SEP-09; I-485 RD: 25-APR-12

  2. #1527
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    Quote Originally Posted by ak7419 View Post
    Been current since November 2020 with Sep 2009 PD. No RFE so far and last RFE was back in 2016.
    That's strange given your file is at NSC. That center is quite proactive.
    What steps have you taken to address this? Raised SR? Involved Congressman office? Anything else?
    I am asking because many people will be in same situation sooner or later.

  3. #1528
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    2009 are out of equation they are bound to get GC sooner or later!! we are only talking abt 2010 eb2 eb3
    you are guaranteed to receive GC with 120K spillover

  4. #1529
    Quote Originally Posted by suninphx View Post
    That's strange given your file is at NSC. That center is quite proactive.
    What steps have you taken to address this? Raised SR? Involved Congressman office? Anything else?
    I am asking because many people will be in same situation sooner or later.
    Raised an SR and got standard response that they are reviewing the case and should hear from them in 90 days. In the meanwhile, I had to renew my combo card and got its approval last month.
    TSC; EB2-I: PD: 17-SEP-09; I-485 RD: 25-APR-12

  5. #1530
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    good job ak7419 soon ur gc will be at in your inbox

  6. #1531
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    Quote Originally Posted by ak7419 View Post
    Raised an SR and got standard response that they are reviewing the case and should hear from them in 90 days. In the meanwhile, I had to renew my combo card and got its approval last month.
    Okay.. I have heard (no first hand experience) that contacting local representative offices sometime helps. May be worth exploring that option.
    Are you being represented by a company attorney? Do they have follow up methods at their disposal?

    All the very best!

  7. #1532
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    Discussing RFE
    I read in trackitt back in December, apperson with march 2013 eb3 got rfe for medicals
    He already received ead and ap, applied on oct 2020 and PD 2010 is still waiting for receipt
    Lol

  8. #1533
    Quote Originally Posted by longwaitgigu View Post
    Discussing RFE
    I read in trackitt back in December, apperson with march 2013 eb3 got rfe for medicals
    He already received ead and ap, applied on oct 2020 and PD 2010 is still waiting for receipt
    Lol
    Unfortunately they do not process the applications according to PDs .. they process FIFO ( read random in the lot received in the month)
    PD EB3-I 10-28-2010; RD 10-23-2020 LPR 08-26-2021

  9. #1534
    I did not see anyone post I-485 data for 4th quarter.
    https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...y2020_qtr4.pdf

    Looks like USCIS approved a total of 121,890 applications last year. Looks like Consular processing was around 15,283. So total approval = 137173. Wasting a total of 18,800 GCs as the total allocation for last year was 156,000.(Am I reading this right?)

    Past reports:
    Q1: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...y2020_qtr1.pdf
    Q2: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...y2020_qtr2.pdf
    Q3: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...y2020_qtr3.pdf
    Last edited by rocketfast; 01-28-2021 at 11:42 PM.

  10. #1535
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    Congrats on your EAD/AP approval. Welcome to the Trishanku status. Make sure that you browse through our EAD/AP thread to setup reminders for timely renewal in 6 months time.
    Thanks man. I will definitely set-up those reminders. But for now, we also plan to renew our H1Bs....More revenue of attorneys and USCIS (the outcome everyone else wants)

  11. #1536
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    For a category which has been moving few days every month for more than 2 years, it is a big ask to pass 2009, let alone 2010. 4 days is what it moved for February 2021. If you count from October 2020 for 5 months it moved 48 days.

    It is a huge ask.
    That's because its clear now that FB SO will be applied only in the last quarter or from May (at best). So why is it a huge ask to say EB2 will clear 2010. Visa numbers are there. If not, why would they even allow us to file? I understand the nervousness behind USCIS ability (given its shaky record) to be efficient and use atleast most of those SO visas in Q4. But to write them off completely, is a big mistake too. Let's take the middle ground, even if the PD moves to Sep-2010 and not Dec-2010, what's there to lose and feel its all gloom and doom. A year ago we were saying 2010 will take 7 years to clear and even to file?? My 2 cents here is no prediction no matter how outrageously optimistic or pathetically pessimistic can be correct entirely because USCIS has never been transparent. Truth is always somewhere in the middle but I'm more hopeful now because this admin. is sure to crack the whip on bringing back agency efficiencies. So even if 65% of SO is used actually, we are talking about significant movement in Q4 and that's based on data.
    Last edited by Zenzone; 01-29-2021 at 09:43 AM.

  12. #1537
    Quote Originally Posted by H1b2006 View Post
    May2010 EB2 india got RFE for medicals. Indication that EB2 May2010 FAD movement very much on the cards.
    if EB2 I moves to May, shoudnt we add 6 months --Nov 2010 for EB3.
    <Meerkat standing up from the cubicle>

    Someone in May 2010 got an RFE?!

    As others said, USCIS ki leela is only known to USCIS and there is usually no rhyme or reason, so hoping things move forward in the next few months.
    GC Approved 7/29/2021

  13. #1538
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    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    As others said, USCIS ki leela is only known to USCIS and there is usually no rhyme or reason, so hoping things move forward in the next few months.
    The only thing that brings hope to me is the USCIS projection of very minimal movement. They somehow seem to mix up between rapid and very little movement. It's usually the reverse of what they say ends up happening. And we had to take English proficiency tests like TOEFL to prove our English speaking skills.

  14. #1539
    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    The only thing that brings hope to me is the USCIS projection of very minimal movement. They somehow seem to mix up between rapid and very little movement. It's usually the reverse of what they say ends up happening. And we had to take English proficiency tests like TOEFL to prove our English speaking skills.
    HA ha ha ha!!

    It always comes down to Accountability, right? If you or me tell someone in the office that yup I will get that done by the end of the week and continue to not do it for three weeks, we will probably get fired. USCIS/DoS can say "Rapid forward movement until January" and move the dates 2 weeks and there is no one to challenge that and hold their feet to their fire.
    GC Approved 7/29/2021

  15. #1540
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    For people who have changed jobs recently, and need to restart their PERM process, does anyone envision any improvement in performance of PERM processing ?
    Looks like they are taking 7-8+ months, and overall including prevailing wage etc it might take a year or more.
    I sincerely hope this route gets faster with Biden admin.
    Thoughts ?

  16. #1541
    Quote Originally Posted by H1b2006 View Post
    May2010 EB2 india got RFE for medicals. Indication that EB2 May2010 FAD movement very much on the cards.
    if EB2 I moves to May, shoudnt we add 6 months --Nov 2010 for EB3.
    I'm March 30th 2010 and I haven't gotten any RFE. On EAD since 2012.

  17. #1542
    Quote Originally Posted by Zenzone View Post
    That's because its clear now that FB SO will be applied only in the last quarter or from May (at best). So why is it a huge ask to say EB2 will clear 2010. Visa numbers are there. If not, why would they even allow us to file? I understand the nervousness behind USCIS ability (given its shaky record) to be efficient and use atleast most of those SO visas in Q4. But to write them off completely, is a big mistake too. Let's take the middle ground, even if the PD moves to Sep-2010 and not Dec-2010, what's there to lose and feel its all gloom and doom. A year ago we were saying 2010 will take 7 years to clear and even to file?? My 2 cents here is no prediction no matter how outrageously optimistic or pathetically pessimistic can be correct entirely because USCIS has never been transparent. Truth is always somewhere in the middle but I'm more hopeful now because this admin. is sure to crack the whip on bringing back agency efficiencies. So even if 65% of SO is used actually, we are talking about significant movement in Q4 and that's based on data.
    Let us forget the spillover. india is expected to get minimum 2803 visas for Eb2 in 2021. Did they even attempt to issue that so far? Covid stains are attacking the country from different places. Even then morons are sending medical RFE’s
    PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
    I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
    I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21

  18. #1543
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    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    The only thing that brings hope to me is the USCIS projection of very minimal movement. They somehow seem to mix up between rapid and very little movement. It's usually the reverse of what they say ends up happening. And we had to take English proficiency tests like TOEFL to prove our English speaking skills.
    They have been providing potential movement projections every quarter. And the movement has been pretty consistent with their projections. Assuming the last projection was till end of this quarter, the earliest we can expect dates to start moving is in the april bulletin. The april bulletin and the projections provided in april is the next thing to watch for.

  19. #1544
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    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    Let us forget the spillover. india is expected to get minimum 2803 visas for Eb2 in 2021. Did they even attempt to issue that so far? Covid stains are attacking the country from different places. Even then morons are sending medical RFE’s
    if you see the last visa inventory release (which is quite old now), the inventory was around 1-2 thousand per month on an average for EB2 india in 2009. Assuming this approximately holds true even today, around 5K visa available for EB2 india without horizontal spiillover will produce around 3-4 months movement in EB2I. This is exactly what we saw in terms of movement since september of last year.

    So data clearly points to the fact that movement so far is purely based on spill over from FB that has been spread across all countries, and no horizontal spillover has been applied so far for EB2 and EB3. But going by past ROW applications for EB2 and EB3, we should see a substantial horizontal spillover being applied in Q3 or Q4 of the FY (april-September 2021). So its reasonable to expect pace of movement to pick up significantly in the 3rd or 4th quarter.

  20. #1545
    Based purely on Trackitt data (and comparing it to last quarter of 2020's trackitt data and eventual real approvals), USCIS has approved a total of 30,000 I-485 applications in the last 4 months.

  21. #1546
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    Has anyone come across this? What does this even means?
    https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...orAOSAndDA.pdf
    Last edited by suninphx; 01-29-2021 at 02:15 PM.

  22. #1547
    Quote Originally Posted by suninphx View Post
    Has anyone come across this? What does this even means?
    https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...orAOSAndDA.pdf
    Don't believe this concerns people seeking EAD as part of an I-485 for EB. This could be addressing people seeking asylum (https://www.uscis.gov/policy-manual/...rt-a-chapter-5).
    GC Approved 7/29/2021

  23. #1548
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    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    Don't believe this concerns people seeking EAD as part of an I-485 for EB. This could be addressing people seeking asylum (https://www.uscis.gov/policy-manual/...rt-a-chapter-5).
    Ok thanks for the link.

    Saw this on trackitt and document mentions c(9) category - so was wondering

  24. #1549
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    Quote Originally Posted by suninphx View Post
    Has anyone come across this? What does this even means?
    https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...orAOSAndDA.pdf
    I just checked my i485 form. INA-245 is not checked. So I think it is safe to say that this does not apply to us.

  25. #1550
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    Quote Originally Posted by suninphx View Post
    Saw this on trackitt and document mentions c(9) category - so was wondering
    The article shared states "on 8 CFR 274a.12(c)(9) (pending application for adjustment of status under INA 245)". so clearly it is not across the board c(9).

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