EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[H1b2006]

Here are the Approved I-140 numbers for EB2/EB3 India for 2010/2011/2012/2013/2014/2015/2016

In 2010
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-15,308(On a ballpark number lets say 6000 EB2 approved numbers from Jan 2010-May 2010 who will not port from EB2 to EB3). There is chance of 9300 EB2 applicants ported to EB3.
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-6,677 (

In 2011
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-22,286
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-6930

In 2012
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-22,308
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-4108

In 2013
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-21,444
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-3,457

In 2014
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-25,635
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-3,879

In 2015
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-32,699
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-6,453

2016
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-49,035
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-10,177

[usvisas]

These are only Consular Processing statistics. "

Terrible oversight on my part (as I expected). A 127% increase in EB3 CP - wow. That doesn't bode well for EB3 when consulates open, I would think.

EB3I - 36,524!!

[texas_]

Terrible oversight on my part (as I expected). A 127% increase in EB3 CP - wow. That doesn't bode well for EB3 when consulates open, I would think.

EB3I - 36,524!!

Agree but as of today US consulates are working very slowly plus the travel ban thru March 2021. That might impact new PERM filings. So my assumption there would be good spill over as well to EB next FY. However from FY 2023 there will be significant set back to all employment categories as consulates starting to function normal business and would take significant chunk of yearly allotted EB visas and backlog would linger for a lifetime

I may be wrong on my assumptions

[longwaitgigu]

Wow
If we assume in 2010- eb2 to b3 downgrade r 9300 then adding to 6677 pending eb3. That should be around 15977 primary applicant and around 31000
Including dependent. That also means If consulate open all over world with full fledge( which might not happen till June or July)then very limited lateral spillover will happen.

[H1b2006]

With 100K spillover from FB to EB in Q1 2022 FY finial action dates will move 6 months for EB3 and 3 months for EB2 but the Question is whether filing dates open again in Q1 2022 FY.

guys like me who changed employers will we be able to file again in Q1 2022

my only hope is how much Q4 2021 spillover moves dates for EB3 and then Q1 Final action dates moves for Q1 2022 peiod.

[AceMan]

With 100K spillover from FB to EB in Q1 2022 FY finial action dates will move 6 months for EB3 and 3 months for EB2 but the Question is whether filing dates open again in Q1 2022 FY.

guys like me who changed employers will we be able to file again in Q1 2022

my only hope is how much Q4 2021 spillover moves dates for EB3 and then Q1 Final action dates moves for Q1 2022 peiod.

I think looking Q1 2022 beyond a potential spill of 100K+ from FB is too early now. Any kind of valid predictions can be done only after July 2021 bulletin.

Regarding filing date accepted for FY 2022. For it to happen if Eb2 final dates has to go past 2010 and Eb3 has to pass 2014. Big ask.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

With 100K spillover from FB to EB in Q1 2022 FY finial action dates will move 6 months for EB3 and 3 months for EB2 but the Question is whether filing dates open again in Q1 2022 FY.

guys like me who changed employers will we be able to file again in Q1 2022

my only hope is how much Q4 2021 spillover moves dates for EB3 and then Q1 Final action dates moves for Q1 2022 peiod.

If they follow the law as written, they will use all the spillover. I know I am skeptical too because of the massive amount of numbers available to use, but let's give the new admin a chance before we start throwing bricks at them. We can either be hopeful and optimistic or miserable moving forward. I admit I also get into these dark phases periodically where I think it's all going to get wasted and honestly I am not thinking this just from my perspective; I am in a lot better shape with May 2010 PD than other in 2012, 2013 etc who are looking at extraordinarily long wait times compared to those of us in 2010 so that's whom I have concern for. So hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

[usvisas]

If they follow the law as written, they will use all the spillover..

I agree. the last bulletin forecasted movement until May. I'd be patient until then. By then, I am expecting the new admin to get settled in with clear directions provided to dhs, uscis, etc..too

[Zenzone]

I think looking Q1 2022 beyond a potential spill of 100K+ from FB is too early now. Any kind of valid predictions can be done only after July 2021 bulletin.

Regarding filing date accepted for FY 2022. For it to happen if Eb2 final dates has to go past 2010 and Eb3 has to pass 2014. Big ask.

I think EB2 clearing 2010 is not that big of an ask after all. I don't know about 2014 for EB3 that can happen if it pours cats and dogs.

[Zenzone]

Bingo...Just now our 765/131 statuses both changed to "case was approved".

Jus a quick update folks...we received our EAD/AP card combo (1-yr. validity) by mail on 1/22.

Here is my timeline (so far...) -

RD - 10/22 - EB2
Biometrics - 1/8
I-765/I-131 case approval - 1/14
EAD/AP Card received - 1/22
National Benefits Center

[Palver]

I think EB2 clearing 2010 is not that big of an ask after all. I don't know about 2014 for EB3 that can happen if it pours cats and dogs.

I have the same view about EB-2 but for EB-3 I think it is not possible that it advances so far out compared to EB-2. If it does, aren't they going to get 1000s of concurrent filings from EB-2 folks who haven't already downgraded? Maybe it will happen for 1 month and retrogress severely?

[idliman]

Jus a quick update folks...we received our EAD/AP card combo (1-yr. validity) by mail on 1/22.

Here is my timeline (so far...) -

RD - 10/22 - EB2
Biometrics - 1/8
I-765/I-131 case approval - 1/14
EAD/AP Card received - 1/22
National Benefits Center

Congrats on your EAD/AP approval. Welcome to the Trishanku status. Make sure that you browse through our EAD/AP thread to setup reminders for timely renewal in 6 months time.

[ak7419]

Jus a quick update folks...we received our EAD/AP card combo (1-yr. validity) by mail on 1/22.

Here is my timeline (so far...) -

RD - 10/22 - EB2
Biometrics - 1/8
I-765/I-131 case approval - 1/14
EAD/AP Card received - 1/22
National Benefits Center

One thing I am unabe to understand is why are we seeing combo card approvals with one year validity instead of two year? Is not that being non-productive since most of these candidates may not receive their green cards by the time their combo card expires?

[idliman]

One thing I am unabe to understand is why are we seeing combo card approvals with one year validity instead of two year? Is not that being non-productive since most of these candidates may not receive their green cards by the time their combo card expires?

This is USCIS standard practice. Even 2012 EAD filers also got only 1 year EAD/AP, the first time.

Consider it like this. The reason why you are doing "DF" based AOS application is the expectation/prediction from USCIS that your PD will become "FA" current in one year time. So using that logic they approve only 1 year EAD/AP for the first time. For renewals, you can request a 2 year validity if your "FA" is not current.

[ak7419]

This is USCIS standard practice. Even 2012 EAD filers also got only 1 year EAD/AP, the first time.

That is not entirely correct. I am a 2012 filer and all my combo cards were for two years except the most recent one which was approved last month.

[idliman]

That is not entirely correct. I am a 2012 filer and all my combo cards were for two years except the most recent one which was approved last month.

My comment was for the very first EAD/AP that is sent together with I485 package. Was your very first EAD issued for 1 year or 2 years? If it was for 2 years consider yourself very lucky.

[AceMan]

I think EB2 clearing 2010 is not that big of an ask after all. I don't know about 2014 for EB3 that can happen if it pours cats and dogs.

For a category which has been moving few days every month for more than 2 years, it is a big ask to pass 2009, let alone 2010. 4 days is what it moved for February 2021. If you count from October 2020 for 5 months it moved 48 days.

It is a huge ask.

[H1b2006]

May2010 EB2 india got RFE for medicals. Indication that EB2 May2010 FAD movement very much on the cards.
if EB2 I moves to May, shoudnt we add 6 months --Nov 2010 for EB3.

[AceMan]

May2010 EB2 india got RFE for medicals. Indication that EB2 May2010 FAD movement very much on the cards.
if EB2 I moves to May, shoudnt we add 6 months --Nov 2010 for EB3.

Let the eggs hatch my dear. We can talk about chicken Biriyani?s later. Lot of people from 2010 got RFE in 2018 and we had planned a buffet with lot of chicken dishes. Little did we know USCIS chickened us out.

So when the dates actually move, then we can start cooking.

[inspired_p]

Let the eggs hatch my dear. We can talk about chicken Biriyani?s later. Lot of people from 2010 got RFE in 2018 and we had planned a buffet with lot of chicken dishes. Little did we know USCIS chickened us out.

So when the dates actually move, then we can start cooking.

Ha ha ! Can;t stop ROFL ! We are too gullible lot .. these small indicators/ hopes keeps us sane... don't take this away from us ! Lets enjoy till the next visa bulletine crushes our soul again.

[Chilli19]

Has anyone got the rescheduled biometrics notice for the office closed dates of Jan 19th and 20th? Mine was initially scheduled for 19th but the office was closed. Called USCIS and they told to wait for 2 weeks to receive a rescheduled notice.

[inspired_p]

May2010 EB2 india got RFE for medicals. Indication that EB2 May2010 FAD movement very much on the cards.
if EB2 I moves to May, shoudnt we add 6 months --Nov 2010 for EB3.

Now only if someone with EB3 -I Nov 2010 also receives an RFE you would be onto some trend . I will let you know as soon as I get an RFE

[mcmilers]

Also, all these RFEs are really random. My PD is Feb 2010 and received RFE for 485J/medicals in 2018. But haven't heard anything from USCIS this time around. Yet.

[AceMan]

Now only if someone with EB3 -I Nov 2010 also receives an RFE you would be onto some trend . I will let you know as soon as I get an RFE

I think I will take a Hariyali Kabab :-)

If the person from March 2010 got an RFE, the response should be the copy of the February visa bulletin where they have indicated forward movement of about a week.

[H1b2006]

well. 4-5 months will pass by in a jiffy by June 2021 we should be knowing if eggs are hatching are not..hope so they will hatch. 120 K spillover is once in a lifetime never happened before and might not happen before aswell from FB to EB. if this 120k doesnt help us, then we need divine intervention to change GC country cap limits removal.

Just Keep praying!! Just like Gabba fortress is breached, we can Breach our Immgration backlogs!!