EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[bones20]

You are talking of odd ball scenarios. There is always the rarest of chances of the above situation happening. From what I have read and seen from my friends, usually you get a GC interview notice anywhere between 2-4 weeks in advance. If ever in such a situation, it's best to consult a lawyer.

thanks. I guess this one we cross when we get there.

[qesehmk]

Thread is open.

Happy Republic Day to all.

Happy-Republic-Day-Images-Wallpaper-2015.jpg

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

If the consulates remain closed until at least March as planned and possibly longer, shouldn't more FB flow over to EB again in FY2022? One would think that would be a minimum of 60k or so considering we had 120k spillover.

Also the new UK, South African and Brazilian variants are cropping up now in places. The SA and Brazilian variants are especially dangerous so hoping for everyone's good health in the coming months. Don't take it lightly, we have had tremendous number of transmissions in the Indian community who got tired of the restrictions and relaxed their guard.

I am just going to assume in the near term there is not going to be any legislative solution for the backlogs with the narrow majority and split committees, so the spillover is going to be the only factor moving forward for this FY2021 and FY2022.

[19YRSNOGC]

If the consulates remain closed until at least March as planned and possibly longer, shouldn't more FB flow over to EB again in FY2022? One would think that would be a minimum of 60k or so considering we had 120k spillover.

Also the new UK, South African and Brazilian variants are cropping up now in places. The SA and Brazilian variants are especially dangerous so hoping for everyone's good health in the coming months. Don't take it lightly, we have had tremendous number of transmissions in the Indian community who got tired of the restrictions and relaxed their guard.

I am just going to assume in the near term there is not going to be any legislative solution for the backlogs with the narrow majority and split committees, so the spillover is going to be the only factor moving forward for this FY2021 and FY2022.

What does one think of this analysis from trackitt .At least some one spent time
https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...1-with-121k-so

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

What does one think of this analysis from trackitt .At least some one spent time
https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...1-with-121k-so

Wow, that is one long read! I guess the gist is it all depends on how efficiently they can process GCs in the last quarter? Considering I don't have an EAD/AP after applying in the first week of Oct, I am not very optimistic at this point.

[Moveon]

What does one think of this analysis from trackitt .At least some one spent time
https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...1-with-121k-so

Thanks "19YRSNOGC" . This is a great article posted by gcseeker1999 (1461) on trackitt.com (Link to his/her analysis ) . I am copying the summary below . What is scary here is that if they do the SO only from July to Sept they will be only issuing a fraction of the SO. The interview requirement will make sure that a majority of the Visas are wasted . All Please reach out to your members of congress to help expedite the process, I have a template pasted in my last post (01-23-2021, 06:24 PM). Without the USCIS moving FAD from next bulletin looks like we might not go beyond early-mid 2010 this fiscal . The trakitt thread by "gcseeker1999 (1461)" has played out 4 scenarios that are worth reading . Its about 7-8 mins read .

Summary:
"By law allocation of Family Based(FB) SpillOver(SO) GC gets added to entire Employment Based(EB) and proportionately divided across each category with 28.6 Percentage of total to EB1/2/3 and 7.1 for EB4/5. Further then the spilt of ROW/I/C/P/M/V depending on each Category. Most of allocations will be towards Rest of World(ROW) in each category and Oversubscribed country get limited to 7 PCT. Later on if there is unused/leftover in ROW , will be then distributed in last Quarter[July to September 2021] to oversubscribed countries. Hope it make sense. Say EB2, at the end of Quarter what ever EB2-ROW unused GC will go to both India and China and India will gets lions share as being the most retrogressed country. The signs of SpillOver(SO) to Oversubscribed countries if any, will be seen from May/June 2021 onwards."

[AceMan]

What does one think of this analysis from trackitt .At least some one spent time
https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...1-with-121k-so

He is registered here, he recommended me Q blog few years back.

[bookworm]

He is registered here, he recommended me Q blog few years back.

Good article. But one thing that needs to be added to the analysis is the USCIS step of getting a Visa Number allocated before issuing the GC. Extract from "THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM"

"At the beginning of each month, the Visa Office (VO) receives a report for each consular post listing totals of documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants in categories subject to numerical limitation. Cases are grouped by foreign state chargeability, preference, and priority date. No names are reported. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) demand for adjustment of status cases awaiting forward movement of the applicable cut-off date are reported to VO as the cases are preadjudicated. During the first week of each month, this documentarily qualified demand is tabulated."

"USCIS requests visa authorization for adjustment of status cases only when all required case processing has been completed."

The last step adds wait time to the process beyond USCIS control. There are many posts on Trackitt of folks who are current but have received a SR response stating that USCIS is waiting for Visa Availability.

[kumareb2]

Boss, it is not a Rocket Science and does not require an experienced attorney. If I were you, I will collect the approved PERM and match the SOC exactly and Title as much as possible. That is 50% or more of the "same or similar" justification. Then look at the job description in your PERM and make sure that you capture two or three points from that. That's it.

I work in a core engineering field. So a "Mechanical Engineer" cannot do an AC21 to a "Electrical Engineer" or "Civil Engineer". However there are Structural engineers in both Civil, Mechanical or Electrical Packaging side. Just match SOC and Job title as much as possible. Imagine you as an adjudicating officer who has no idea of what your IT position is. The AO is going to look for some common language to be comfortable to approve your I485J application. If you pay big bucks and hire an experienced attorney, they can probably justify that all are "Engineers" and eligible for AC21. It all depends on your situation.

That's why I have repeated a few times that everyone needs to have a copy of their PERM for later use in AC21. That helps a lot in AC21. You probably can write an excellent justification yourself and pass it on to your attorney as a start.

Also everyone needs to have the confidence to do an immigration form. Imagine a paralegal who is assisting an attorney. While most are excellent, there are some in the beginning stage and can do a lot of mistakes. It is our applications / forms and we need to make sure that we go through everything. I have asked for corrections in forms prepared even by an experienced attorney. You are paying for their services so your should make sure that the end product is worth it.

couldn't agree more. Having a copy of PERM,140 & 485 would greatly help you in replying to SUPJ, etc., In my case, my company changed our immigration attorney, and it seems like while changing the law firm they didn't transfer the old files to the new law office. I got the RFE last month for medicals & SUPj, and the new law office asked me whether I had a copy of PERM & 485 so that they can start preparing the response otherwise I have to wait till they get my file from the old law office. It has been over a month and a half and we are still waiting for the information :-(

[usvisas]

Spec / Gurus - isn't this recent report from usci s almost like the pending inventory:

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...em_2020_vF.pdf

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Spec / Gurus - isn't this recent report from usci s almost like the pending inventory:

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...em_2020_vF.pdf

These are only Consular Processing statistics.

"EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCES
It is important to note that normally about eighty-five percent of all Employment preference
immigrants are processed as adjustment of status cases at USCIS offices. Cases pending with
USCIS are not counted in the consular waiting list tally which is presented below."

Good to see this reiterated again:
"Immigrant Waiting List
By Country
Immigrant visa issuances during fiscal year 2021 will be limited by the terms of INA 201 to no
more than 226,000 in the family-sponsored preferences and approximately 262,000 in the
employment-based preferences. "

[Palver]

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2020_Q3_Q4.pdf

[qesehmk]

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2020_Q3_Q4.pdf

Spec perhaps you can help us. You always made me believe USCIS are the bad guys of immigration. What explains this when there are 140K extra visas available this year. Why do we only see allocation as if only regular quota is available?

[usvisas]

Why do we only see allocation as if only regular quota is available?

there's no allocation in those numbers. they are just approved 140's, 360's and 526's by pref category by country of birth.

(note that dependents are not included)

[H1b2006]

Guys Scenario 2 in Qtr 4- July to Sept
25235, Visa numbers will be available for EB2 -Nov/Dec 2010 FAD move
25235, Visa numbers will be available for EB3- Whole of 2011 will be cleared

How many of EB2 guys moved into EB3 queue with downporting
is the question how much eb3 FAD will move with all the downportings.

any rough idea guys

[AceMan]

Guys Scenario 2 in Qtr 4- July to Sept
25235, Visa numbers will be available for EB2 -Nov/Dec 2010 FAD move
25235, Visa numbers will be available for EB3- Whole of 2011 will be cleared

How many of EB2 guys moved into EB3 queue with downporting
is the question how much eb3 FAD will move with all the downportings.

any rough idea guys

You can discount the people who already have an EAD from 2012 with May 2010 from down porting. The chances of them still in H1B or with the same employer to initiate a EB2-3 downgrade is very rare.

However the people who applied for EAD after October 2018 might be still on H1 or with the original employer can be substantial and they can and will down grade. That is the reason EB3 has reached only April 1st 2010 for Feb bulletin. People after April 2010 got a chance to file for EAD only in October 2020 and many of them are still waiting for their receipts even today.

Any movement for this category is expected to happen only in the last quarter of 2021.

May 2010 - May 2011 filers in EB2 are the people who is on fence. If the spill over from EB1 happens, it will push the dates beyond Eb3 for a while.

[qesehmk]

there's no allocation in those numbers. they are just approved 140's, 360's and 526's by pref category by country of birth.

(note that dependents are not included)

I know that. My question was why do we see such levels of approved waiting for Visa when 140K extra visas are available.

[H1b2006]

Thanks Aceman, your PD and mine is almost days apart. iam 13 days ahead than you.

PD: EB2-I, 11 FEB 2011 i coudnt apply for 485 as i changed employer,

new employer applied for PWD, expecting PWD to be issued in Feb, onto Perm in EB3 by new employer in April, By Oct 2021 i should be ready to apply for I140 IF conditions favour if FAD is current by Nov/dec time periods for EB3, i can apply it and wait for GC.

FB to EB starts kicking in from Oct 2021.there should be some 75k-100k Spillover in 2022FY aswell.

[cool_dude]

I am debating whether to apply for i140 premium processing.
Filed a concurrent 485 with eb3 downgrade.
My Priority date is may 25 2011

[AceMan]

Thanks Aceman, your PD and mine is almost days apart. iam 13 days ahead than you.

PD: EB2-I, 11 FEB 2011 i coudnt apply for 485 as i changed employer,

new employer applied for PWD, expecting PWD to be issued in Feb, onto Perm in EB3 by new employer in April, By Oct 2021 i should be ready to apply for I140 IF conditions favour if FAD is current by Nov/dec time periods for EB3, i can apply it and wait for GC.

FB to EB starts kicking in from Oct 2021.there should be some 75k-100k Spillover in 2022FY aswell.

Good luck dear. Let?s hope this is our year. This would be the most favorable time because every other category except for China is current and with the consulates not processing visa, people are not expected to come in quickly.

I agree we might get similar numbers for 2022 as well, but with covid vaccination and open consulates the demand can go up. Also factor in lot of H1?s from 2020 and entire 2021 H1?s along with 2022 H1?s are going to be available by October 2021. This years H1 lottery might be an interesting watch in my opinion.

[texas_]

You can discount the people who already have an EAD from 2012 with May 2010 from down porting. The chances of them still in H1B or with the same employer to initiate a EB2-3 downgrade is very rare.

However the people who applied for EAD after October 2018 might be still on H1 or with the original employer can be substantial and they can and will down grade. That is the reason EB3 has reached only April 1st 2010 for Feb bulletin. People after April 2010 got a chance to file for EAD only in October 2020 and many of them are still waiting for their receipts even today.

Any movement for this category is expected to happen only in the last quarter of 2021.

May 2010 - May 2011 filers in EB2 are the people who is on fence. If the spill over from EB1 happens, it will push the dates beyond Eb3 for a while.

If spillover applies (god knows) then USCIS/DHS would try to bring eb2/eb3 closer to each other
Guessing eb3 dec2010 and eb2 oct 2010 for India

[H1b2006]

I just looked up Approved I140 numbers for EB2/EB3 India for 2010/2011/2012

In 2010
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-15,308(On a ballpark number lets say 6000 EB2 approved numbers from Jan 2010-May 2010 who will not port from EB2 to EB3). There is chance of 9300 EB2 applicants ported to EB3.
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-6,677 (

In 2011
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-22,286
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-6930

In 2012
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-22,308
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-4108

[H1b2006]

I would expect untill May 2011 EB2 downporting will be less, since they are able to Apply 485 AOS in Oct-Dec 2020 periods in EB2 itself.
it costed 10000$ per family to downport from EB2 to EB3 i thiink only 25% of folks might have spent 10K USD and applied in EB3 in those 3 months.

[Palver]

Yeah, I'd agree. Most of the downgrades will be after May 2011. But for one data point, my PD is Sep-2012 and I couldn't/didn't downgrade. If I were to guess I'd say maybe 50% downgraded after May-2011 with the proportion increasing with the year of PD

[usvisas]

If I were to guess I'd say maybe 50% downgraded after May-2011 with the proportion increasing with the year of PD

I think so too