EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[rabp77]

Whats surprising is no one asks why does it need to be this way? Is application of spillover May onwards helping achieve the spirit of the law? Shouldnt an immigrant friendly admin have a plan that is better than a repeat of what has been done (& failed) before? I mean, we are issuing EOs to allow folks sitting in other countries come to USA but cant fix the USCIS Lockbox processing for receipts?

I may sound PO but that is because I can see lot of wastage happening in Sept. Genuinely hope that I am wrong and Biden-Harris are able to achieve what they are capable of.

We need to make a distinction between spillover from FB-> EB, and horizontal and vertial spillover within EB.

FB->EB is applied immediately at the start of the year. This spillover is spread to all countries, so the impact on any individual country is not much. However, they have been cautious applying horizontal and vertical spillover within EB, and have applied the horizontal spillover only towarads the end of the year. Although we know based on history this spillover is likely to be big, they have been extremely cautious just in case there is an unexpected surge in applications from ROW. So the cautious approach has its valid reasons and is in keeping with how its been done before, and the spirit of the law which allows horizontal spillover only after its certain it will not be used by ROW.

The good thing is if the applications have been adjudicated, the approval process is actually very quick once the dates are current. So the biggest factor now is just how quickly the cases are pre-adjudicated. If its like previous years, there should be an increase in pace of movement in the later half or last quarter.

[idliman]

Thanks for you inputs. I believe if we hire experienced attorneys 485J is their day to day activity and can draft JD that matches the old JD

What do you think?

Boss, it is not a Rocket Science and does not require an experienced attorney. If I were you, I will collect the approved PERM and match the SOC exactly and Title as much as possible. That is 50% or more of the "same or similar" justification. Then look at the job description in your PERM and make sure that you capture two or three points from that. That's it.

I work in a core engineering field. So a "Mechanical Engineer" cannot do an AC21 to a "Electrical Engineer" or "Civil Engineer". However there are Structural engineers in both Civil, Mechanical or Electrical Packaging side. Just match SOC and Job title as much as possible. Imagine you as an adjudicating officer who has no idea of what your IT position is. The AO is going to look for some common language to be comfortable to approve your I485J application. If you pay big bucks and hire an experienced attorney, they can probably justify that all are "Engineers" and eligible for AC21. It all depends on your situation.

That's why I have repeated a few times that everyone needs to have a copy of their PERM for later use in AC21. That helps a lot in AC21. You probably can write an excellent justification yourself and pass it on to your attorney as a start.

Also everyone needs to have the confidence to do an immigration form. Imagine a paralegal who is assisting an attorney. While most are excellent, there are some in the beginning stage and can do a lot of mistakes. It is our applications / forms and we need to make sure that we go through everything. I have asked for corrections in forms prepared even by an experienced attorney. You are paying for their services so your should make sure that the end product is worth it.

[phkb2020]

So how is spillover supposed to work? I know inventory data is non existent since last 2-3 years, but can the number crunching gurus in the forum have an idea (using Trackitt/PERM/USCIS annual data) to make sense of the pre May 2011 demand for EB2I & EB3I?

Going back to spillover question - Are horizontal spillovers applied quarterly or in Q4? EB1I has moved multiple years in matter of months - if USCIS/DHS is not applying horizontal spillover - then does it mean that there is virtually no EB1I demand and all demand is being satisfied by 7% country quota EB1I numbers (~5200). If this is true then EB2I should see bumper movement in Q4 - which also means massive wastage as the admin wont be able to process all applications in time.

I think we are seeing horizonal spillover is being applied, which then begs the question why EB2I is not getting the benefit of similar spillovers? Surely there isn't such a huge demand to EB2I dates that only allowed the movement of a couple of months after application of Q1 horizontal spillover !

[bookworm]

We need to make a distinction between spillover from FB-> EB, and horizontal and vertial spillover within EB.

FB->EB is applied immediately at the start of the year. This spillover is spread to all countries, so the impact on any individual country is not much. However, they have been cautious applying horizontal and vertical spillover within EB, and have applied the horizontal spillover only towarads the end of the year. Although we know based on history this spillover is likely to be big, they have been extremely cautious just in case there is an unexpected surge in applications from ROW. So the cautious approach has its valid reasons and is in keeping with how its been done before, and the spirit of the law which allows horizontal spillover only after its certain it will not be used by ROW.

The good thing is if the applications have been adjudicated, the approval process is actually very quick once the dates are current. So the biggest factor now is just how quickly the cases are pre-adjudicated. If its like previous years, there should be an increase in pace of movement in the later half or last quarter.

Thank you Rab for the reminder of the process. I agree that there is a reason to be cautious at USCIS. However this approach ignores historical data or any kind of forecasting.

At present folks who became current in Oct & Nov are still waiting for RFEs. Folks who have responded to RFEs in Nov & Dec time frame are waiting for a decision. It indicates that USCIS takes on an average 4 months to process after dated become current. This is based on normal demand patterns.

OTOH there are no environmental factors that seem to suggest a surge in EB ROW filings.

Assuming processing capacity is a constant it really seems impossible that USCIS will rise upto the challenge of processing a record number of GCs in Q3 & Q4 of FY 21.

On a lighter note - the race is between getting the Vaccine and GC (in some cases EAD renewal receipts).

[vedu]

So , the Admin just needs to prioritize this task and someone needs to tell them that , else it will get drowned in the illegal immigrants talk .

Don't use derogatory words such as "illegal". Please call them "undocumented". How will you feel if people call you "alien"?

[texas_]

Is your new employer a large org or a smaller org? Having a experienced attorney helps but they are expensive. The biggest hurdle in my experience is HR. If you can navigate that then you are as good as gold. Usually your hiring manager has a big role to play in detailing your duties. So make this a part of your hiring process and you will have an easier time later on. Once you are in you have limited leverage.

The new employer is government agency.

[vsivarama]

Going back to spillover question - Are horizontal spillovers applied quarterly or in Q4? EB1I has moved multiple years in matter of months - if USCIS/DHS is not applying horizontal spillover - then does it mean that there is virtually no EB1I demand and all demand is being satisfied by 7% country quota EB1I numbers (~5200). If this is true then EB2I should see bumper movement in Q4 - which also means massive wastage as the admin wont be able to process all applications in time.

I think we are seeing horizonal spillover is being applied, which then begs the question why EB2I is not getting the benefit of similar spillovers? Surely there isn't such a huge demand to EB2I dates that only allowed the movement of a couple of months after application of Q1 horizontal spillover !

There was this section below in the presidential proclamation that suspended entry to H1's and other visa types with cited EB2 and EB3 specifically. Maybe this is just reading too much into making sense of the VB movement disparity between EB1 vs EB2 and EB3.

"In section 5(b) entitled ?Additional Measures,? the executive order states that the Secretaries of Labor and Homeland Security will consider passing regulations or taking other action ?to ensure that the presence in the United States of aliens who have been admitted?or who are seeking admission or a benefit, pursuant to an EB-2 or EB-3 immigrant visa or an H-1B nonimmigrant visa does not disadvantage United States workers in violation of section 212(a)(5)(A) or (n)(1) of the INA (8 U.S.C. 1182(a)(5)(A) or (n)(1)).?

[Moveon]

Don't use derogatory words such as "illegal". Please call them "undocumented". How will you feel if people call you "alien"?

Honestly I don't care if they call me Alien . Calling us by some fancy name does not change anything unless reform is passed. Its all been lip service for the last two decades.
Anyway , we need to have one focus and that is to get the USCIS to honor Spillover ever fiscal. Lets not digress.
Please reach out to your members of congress asking them to inquire the USCIS on what their plan is to fully allocate the EB Visas.

[vedu]

Honestly I don't care if they call me Alien . Calling us by some fancy name does not change anything unless reform is passed. Its all been lip service for the last two decades.
Anyway , we need to have one focus and that is to get the USCIS to honor Spillover ever fiscal. Lets not digress.
Please reach out to your members of congress asking them to inquire the USCIS on what their plan is to fully allocate the EB Visas.

You got the point. I will certainly do my best to reach out to members of congress about this issue. I was very optimistic at the beginning of the year. But 5 bulletins after and 7 bulletins remaining in the year, I am not so sure any more. I have a sinking feeling like many others on this forum that visas will be wasted in massive numbers due to USCIS waiting until the last quarter and then not having enough capacity to process visas. You still have some hope since your priority date is in December, but people with PDs in 2010 should not take anything for granted at this time.

[bones20]

Hi Gurus,
Have some GC related questions (PD: 04/29/2010, Category: Eb2, i485 filing date: 10/28/2020, EAD/AP: Awaiting finger print notice). I am waiting for 180 days to lapse so I could change employer (badly need to). Assuming I have a new job to start on 05/01/2021, below are my questions:
1. What if I become current just after h1b transfer is done and I provide a notice on 04/15/2021. Is there a risk, GC interview falls right at the time when I am in the process of leaving the sponsoring employer? Changes of this specific example are negligible, but the questions is generic.
2. Will the new employer be able to file a downgrade to eb3 if that becomes current after I join? It seems the new employer will have to file a new labor to do be able to file the downgrade?
3. Any guesses as to when 04/29/2010 eb2 is expected to become current? It seems 04/29/2010 eb3, might become current in June bulletin.
4. How soon after I receive the GC, can I quit my employer?

thank you!

[Positive]

It is amazing that the advocacy group that is so vocal about country cap removal has crawled under a rock now that an opportunity of least resistance has materialized to benefit thousands of people in the backlog. It does not require legislation or executive action but simply lobbying the executive branch to timely process the legally available visas. But hey, that kind of advocacy does not present the opportunity to raise thousands of dollars, lord over a hapless tired backlogged community, and swat down with full force anyone else daring to organize on behalf of the community using a virulent army of trolls that would shame the QAnon and Proud boys. It's as if they would rather have these thousands of visas get wasted so they can continue to make the case for S386 to an ever growing number of backlogged people and collect dollars from the rubes. Considering that utilization of these visas would reduce backlogs and potentially decrease the resistance from ROW, because they will not be looking at as large a backlog as before, one would think that said advocacy group would vigorously pursue the powers that be to ensure that at least the current windfall of visas is fully utilized. If ever one needed proof that the advocacy group exists just for the money and power trip of a few vested interests, it is plainly visible now to all willing to view things objectively.

I am highly skeptical that USCIS will be able to use up more than twice the usual EB visas given the pace of movement of the visa bulletin and the pace of processing. The fact that Charlie Oppenheim, who is well versed with our plight, did not bother to move dates more aggressively and has no plans to do so, even though there has been a change of regime and Stephen Miller is no longer breathing down his neck, does not inspire much confidence. If we do not get our act together and lobby hard with the Biden administration to ensure they make USCIS use up the currently available visas, I do not see what would be the point of advocating for visa recapture or anything else. Time is running out. It will be logistically impossible to process the remaining visas in the last 3-4 months even if the USCIS somehow miraculously found the will to do so.

[Moveon]

You got the point. I will certainly do my best to reach out to members of congress about this issue. I was very optimistic at the beginning of the year. But 5 bulletins after and 7 bulletins remaining in the year, I am not so sure any more. I have a sinking feeling like many others on this forum that visas will be wasted in massive numbers due to USCIS waiting until the last quarter and then not having enough capacity to process visas. You still have some hope since your priority date is in December, but people with PDs in 2010 should not take anything for granted at this time.

Yes Vedu, I agree that I am ~2 months away on my PD, but if they issue the 120K GCs, 2010 should get cleared easily. I sincerely hope that it does . Reaching out to your representatives and senators is very easy . There is a form where you put your name and address and in a text box your grievance . Copy paste the same for the two senators and your congress person. Takes less than 10 mins in total . I just did it today .

Senators : https://www.senate.gov/general/conta...nators_cfm.cfm
representative : https://www.house.gov/representative...representative

[qesehmk]

Just a few observations:
1) The FB to EB spillover is mandated by Law. So Trump administration did not do EB any favors.
2) USCIS processes over 1M GCs per year. So processing bandwidth is not the issue.
3) Biden Harris have all the good intent. But the 485 interview requirement is going to be a huge impediment to USCIS utilizing all numbers. It's almost as if that requirement is designed to stop EB-I from getting more numbers.
4) #3 leads to the uncertainty that still exists in utilizing the numbers.
5) Consequently it is important that EB backlogged folks do something - even on their own - to let USCIS and Biden admin know that the numbers must be used to alleviate some of the chronic backlogs.

[vedu]

Yes Vedu, I agree that I am ~2 months away on my PD, but if they issue the 120K GCs, 2010 should get cleared easily. I sincerely hope that it does . Reaching out to your representatives and senators is very easy . There is a form where you put your name and address and in a text box your grievance . Copy paste the same for the two senators and your congress person. Takes less than 10 mins in total . I just did it today .

Senators : https://www.senate.gov/general/conta...nators_cfm.cfm
representative : https://www.house.gov/representative...representative

I submitted the forms today, thank you. Everybody should do it. Is there a way we can directly reach out to Biden admin or may be Charlie Oppenheim, since he is directly responsible for setting the dates?

[bookworm]

The new employer is government agency.

Just use a lawyer. Think of it as an insurance policy if there are questions over 485J.

[vsivarama]

CO has already mentioned very limited forward movement for EB2/3I for the next next few months. So, that's that.

On a fun note actually CO saying that maybe for the best. In the recent years, I am yet to encounter an instance when CO was right. It usually turns out to be opposite of what CO projects. Just very recently in Oct VB it was projected that we would see rapid forward movement. . But one thing is true, the new admin can take off the interview requirement by the stroke of a pen. Let's see if it materializes by next month. I guess it's more than enough time to gauge the actual will of the admin.

[alpha0]

Because republicans don't want dreamers bill or EB bill (remember how republicans required UC for a bill that democrats supported)!

So instead of blaming democrats - our Hindu nationalist fascists should try to cajole their American counter parts in GOP.

https://www.as-coa.org/articles/char...ntial-election

Did you notice that Trump got 32% latino votes in 2020 compared to 29% he got in 2016? That is despite all the actions he took on immigration.

Florida - cuban origin people favored DJT over Biden, but even among non cuban latinos, votes split between DJT and Biden.

Nevada- More latino men voted for DJT than Biden.

Texas - 43% of latino men and 38% of latino women voted for DJT.

After 2012 elections, republicans felt that they will need latino votes to win next election, there is no such pressure now. And DJT has brought so much hardliners to front that any 2024 republican hopeful will need support of those DJT hardliners more than latinos, so they will have to oppose any major immigration overhaul otherwise they will not get thru republican primary in 2024.

[AceMan]

IMO- Hindu nationalism has nothing to do with American immigration. You own this forum and you can write what you want but it doesn't really fit well with general sanity we have been having on this forum (in my opinion). The way you bash Hindu nationalism , I think any ideology can be bashed but it wouldn't help the cause. You (or anyone else) like it or not, BJP is in power with huge majority and they are in power in multiple states in India. If you want to oppose them you need to do it on ground. India still is a democratic country. Bashing them here won't help anyone.
Again, it's your forum and people who don't like what you write have option of visiting forum less frequently or not visit at all, I get that. But as a long timer here wanted to put forth my opinion none the less.

I have a clear Republican view and I have no problem in expressing my views or opinions here.

The objective of forum is to share views in a respectful manner. If you think he is bashing Hindu nationalism, counter it with points on why you think it is the right way to go.

[vsivarama]

We need to have a more objective view than that of a democratic or republican views. Yes, everyone have our biases and our own echo chamber but outside of it the situation is not that dire as it is portrayed in the media. e.g. A lot of republicans ignore the hardline immigration rhetoric as nothing but hot air. Just because they support DT despite hardline immigration rhetoric, does not mean they are racists, fascists or xenophobes. Similarly, a lot of people fear Bernie's rhetoric as socialist and as the beginning of the end of America. But a lot of democrats who voted for Bernie know it's hot air. They do NOT want a socialist country. It's easy for our politicians to start a culture war by fear mongering about AOC/Ilhan Omar or Jim Jordan/Taylor Greene than actually bettering the lives of people. They are all lazy folks who want to get by, by doing nothing.

[bones20]

Sorry for interrupting the political conversation. If someone could please help me find (or point to the right thread) answer to the below questions:

Hi Gurus,
Have some GC related questions (PD: 04/29/2010, Category: Eb2, i485 filing date: 10/28/2020, EAD/AP: Awaiting finger print notice). I am waiting for 180 days to lapse so I could change employer (badly need to). Assuming I have a new job to start on 05/01/2021, below are my questions:
1. What if I become current for final action just after h1b transfer is done and I provide a notice on 04/15/2021. Is there a risk, GC interview falls right at the time when I am in the process of leaving the sponsoring employer? Changes of this specific example are negligible, but the questions is generic.
2. Will the new employer be able to file a downgrade to eb3 if that becomes current after I join? It seems the new employer will have to file a new labor to do be able to file the downgrade?
3. Any guesses as to when 04/29/2010 eb2 is expected to become current? It seems 04/29/2010 eb3, might become current in June bulletin.
4. How soon after I receive the GC, can I quit my employer?

thank you!

[bikenlalan]

Are the monthly checkins with CO by Aila still happening? I have not seen any updates in the last few months, those can give at-least some insight on what is going on in terms of SO utilization.

[vsivarama]

Hi Gurus,
Have some GC related questions (PD: 04/29/2010, Category: Eb2, i485 filing date: 10/28/2020, EAD/AP: Awaiting finger print notice). I am waiting for 180 days to lapse so I could change employer (badly need to). Assuming I have a new job to start on 05/01/2021, below are my questions:
1. What if I become current for final action just after h1b transfer is done and I provide a notice on 04/15/2021. Is there a risk, GC interview falls right at the time when I am in the process of leaving the sponsoring employer? Changes of this specific example are negligible, but the questions is generic.
2. Will the new employer be able to file a downgrade to eb3 if that becomes current after I join? It seems the new employer will have to file a new labor to do be able to file the downgrade?
3. Any guesses as to when 04/29/2010 eb2 is expected to become current? It seems 04/29/2010 eb3, might become current in June bulletin.
4. How soon after I receive the GC, can I quit my employer?

thank you!

Here are the responses below.

1. Technically if you leave the employer after 180 days of filing i485 you should be fine. Its always better to maintain the right optics. It's always advisable to initiate any moves after the 180 days. What if your employer is willing to let you go from a couple of days when you server your notice? As long as you file the 485 Supp J and have proof to show that you followed the proper process, it should not matter in the GC interview.
2. No. He will have to restart your application for downgrade.
3. God knows. No one has any accurate information on pending inventory numbers or USCIS bandwidth to process GCs. Hopefully by end of FY2021.
4. There is no hard and fast rule. Even the lawyers differ on this some saying 180 days while the others say you can move out the very next day as long as you have spent enough time with the employer to prove to USCIS that it was not a fraudulent job offer solely extended for the purpose of GC.

[bones20]

Here are the responses below.

1. Technically if you leave the employer after 180 days of filing i485 you should be fine. Its always better to maintain the right optics. It's always advisable to initiate any moves after the 180 days. What if your employer is willing to let you go from a couple of days when you server your notice? As long as you file the 485 Supp J and have proof to show that you followed the proper process, it should not matter in the GC interview.
2. No. He will have to restart your application for downgrade.
3. God knows. No one has any accurate information on pending inventory numbers or USCIS bandwidth to process GCs. Hopefully by end of FY2021.
4. There is no hard and fast rule. Even the lawyers differ on this some saying 180 days while the others say you can move out the very next day as long as you have spent enough time with the employer to prove to USCIS that it was not a fraudulent job offer solely extended for the purpose of GC.

thank you!

Re:#1
Lets say If I fufill the safe harbor period of 180 days, give a notice right after that. Is there a possibility that I may be scheduled for GC interview in the notice period before I join the new employer (so no chance of filing 485j)?

[Moveon]

Hi All ,
Looks like we are have an ideology clash here between folks . Its fine to have different opinions but currently we all need to have one focus and this is to get the USCIS to issue the 120K extra GCs. This will sent the tone for the next year too when there will probably be an equal number of GCs spillover to EB.
I believe GCs with PDs upto April 30th 2010 can be issued w/o the interview as most were applied before 2017 .

As Vedu mentioned we need to have both political and Biz pressure . I will repeat this Please mail your members of congress , it won't take more then 10 mins .

If some of you are working in Google, MSFT, Adobe , Facebook, Amazon etc then you can request your HR to escalate upto the CEOs . These companies are sympathetic to such causes and can help pressurize the admin to get the ball rolling . Again , we are only requesting the USCIS to do its job of issuing GCs which they are duty bound to and nothing extra .

If it helps you guys , I just framed a response that you could copy paste . So should not take you more than 2-3 mins to send this out . Please do send it ASAP .


Senators : https://www.senate.gov/general/conta...nators_cfm.cfm
Representative : https://www.house.gov/representative...representative
There is a web form where you put your name and address and in a text box your grievance (Pick "Immigration" from the category drop box) . Copy paste the same for the two senators and your congress person.

Dear <Name of your Representative /Senator>
I would like to draw your attention to the plight of backlogged Indian and Chinese immigrants in the Employment Based Categories 2 and 3 (EB2/EB3) . Hundreds of thousands of us along with our families have a predicted wait of 10s of years due to the broken immigration laws that put legal immigrants coming from India and China at a severe disadvantage. Many of them will sadly age out by the time they get their Green Cards.
This Immigration Fiscal (Oct-2020 to Sept-2021) there is a Spillover of 120K Green Cards into the Employment Category that must be utilized by September 2021, effectively making this a "use it or lose it " case. Sadly the USCIS has been not advancing the dates for Employment Based Categories especially for EB2 India that comprises of Individuals that have highly specialized skills who have been contributing to the success of the country in multiple fields. I kindly request that you use what ever is in your power to enquire the reason for USCIS to delay the forward movement of Green Cards for India EB-2 and EB-3 as with the current rate it seems highly unlikely that they will be able to issue the 120K extra green cards in the employment based categories by September. We are not requesting any extra Green Cards or for a special legislation. We are only requesting the USCIS to commit on not wasting a single employment based visa this fiscal and the coming . I hope that you would be able to contact the USCIS and get their commitment to not waste any employment based Green Cards and to advance the "Final Action" dates for India and China EB2/3 from the March 2021 bulletin .

Sincerely ,
<Your Name + dependents>

[vsivarama]

thank you!

Re:#1
Lets say If I fufill the safe harbor period of 180 days, give a notice right after that. Is there a possibility that I may be scheduled for GC interview in the notice period before I join the new employer (so no chance of filing 485j)?

You are talking of odd ball scenarios. There is always the rarest of chances of the above situation happening. From what I have read and seen from my friends, usually you get a GC interview notice anywhere between 2-4 weeks in advance. If ever in such a situation, it's best to consult a lawyer.