EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[AceMan]

Not sure how updated this data is. EB2I & EB3I have the same pending inventory of 4.2K for 2009 in the above table. EB3I, 2009 was FA current at least 3 months back and EB3I FA 01OCT09 was current for 6 months or more. All the 2009 EB3I folks should have shown up in the system by now with increasing porting cases from EB2I. Yet, EB3I had leaped ahead of EB2I. If they are allocating visa's quarterly, it does not make sense considering the total visas are only 5200. Just curious. Have I missed something major about why EB3I had jumped for quarterly allocation scenario?

Additional Thoughts:

1. OP. Thanks for posting this valuable information.
2. The ratio of EB2I to EB3I varies anywhere from 3:1 (33%) to 6:1 (16%).
3. For folks in 2010 to 2012 it is a no brainier to downgrade to EB3I. Even with porting EB3I should be faster for the next 2 years.
4. Anyone and everyone in 2009 to 2012 with EB2I should consider clogging the system with two I140's. EB3I folks in 2012+ or so may prepare with an additional I-140 (in-case they end up wasting majority of GCs this year).
5. ROW is FA current for both EB2 & EB3. If ROW EB3 has FA cutoff after the pandemic, that may slow EB3 in 2022 or 2023.

Porting is not recommended as you are presenting. EB1 is having rapid movement and expected to be current within next 2 bulletins. The 3rd quarter of 2021 EB2 should get the long awaited vertical spillover which has been absent for the last 4-5 years. Eb3I is expected to get only the horizontal spillover. So if you look at the numbers provided by Spec,
(E1 --------------- 5,246 -- 74,932
E2 --------------- 5,245 -- 74,932
E3/EW ------------ 5,245 -- 74,932*
E4/SR ------------ 1,302 -- 18,602
E5 --------------- 1,302 -- 18,602)

Eb2 I should be in a position to clear all the numbers till May 2011 before the end of the Fiscal.

[kuku82]

Nope no updates on the online case status for me either.

No it did not for me. But the I-485 and I-765 statuses got immediately updated as soon as the fingerprint appointments were done.

Got my biometrics appt notice today. The application forms were delivered on 10/23 processed by NBC.

[MidWestMaverick]

Hello everyone. I have been following this blog for a year and just want to thank you all for the information and analysis.

I have a basic question about the current situation - Since there are going to be a lot of people with I-140s in both categories, would USCIS try to keep parity in EB2-I and EB3-I dates? Looking at the data FarAwayfromGC, in the absence of large scale downgrading, EB3 might remain ahead of EB2 in the near future.

[AceMan]

The fact is , there are too many of us in the line, if you look at the pending inventory for India as of March 2020 . CO being cautious is not a surprise.

This was posted on twitter by David Bier . Not sure if this data is accurate but, I follow David on Twitter and he is a reliable source of information.

https://twitter.com/David_J_Bier/sta...431284738?s=20

The dates mentioned was March 2020 and that was released just before the Covid situation. My interpretation is as follows.

For October 2020, Eb3 filing dates moved up to January 1st 2015, and E2 dates moved up to May 15th 2011. It looks like they have decided to accept 25,000 primary 140 applicants and their dependents in. They kept the tap open for November 2020 bulletin also, and in December they throttled it back to January 1st 2014 for Eb3, which means they would have received enough downgrades from May 2011 - Jan 2015.

The speed at which Eb1 India moved from May 2020 to October 2020 appears to have processed around 20,000 primaries for Eb1 at that time. Eb1 candidates generally use up 2-3 dependent visas, so that was a really good movement.

All of this points to some good movement in the offering from April bulletin.

Usual disclaimer, I rarely got my predictions right.

[alpha0]

The dates mentioned was March 2020 and that was released just before the Covid situation. My interpretation is as follows.

For October 2020, Eb3 filing dates moved up to January 1st 2015, and E2 dates moved up to May 15th 2011. It looks like they have decided to accept 25,000 primary 140 applicants and their dependents in. They kept the tap open for November 2020 bulletin also, and in December they throttled it back to January 1st 2014 for Eb3, which means they would have received enough downgrades from May 2011 - Jan 2015.

The speed at which Eb1 India moved from May 2020 to October 2020 appears to have processed around 20,000 primaries for Eb1 at that time. Eb1 candidates generally use up 2-3 dependent visas, so that was a really good movement.

All of this points to some good movement in the offering from April bulletin.

Usual disclaimer, I rarely got my predictions right.

If EB1India is current, how many more will try to file 140 and 485 this year and take advanvage of the movement? I doubt even CO can predict those numbers.

[alpha0]

Just to share how ridiculous this has become. I came to know about someone who came here to do masters and got married in 2008/early 2009 or so, got gc, became citizen, filed for parents who got gc. Parents filed for their other unmarried son/daughter who also got gc in F2B. That son/daughter got marrried and now spouse is going to get gc soon as F2A is current.

Luckily Covid related consulate shutdowns helped and i got my EB gc 2 months back else i would still be waiting while 4th link of the family based immigration chain would be getting GC before me. And they still complain that US immigration system is very slow.

[ak7419]

Just to share how ridiculous this has become. I came to know about someone who came here to do masters and got married in 2008/early 2009 or so, got gc, became citizen, filed for parents who got gc. Parents filed for their other unmarried son/daughter who also got gc in F2B. That son/daughter got marrried and now spouse is going to get gc soon as F2A is current.

Luckily Covid related consulate shutdowns helped and i got my EB gc 2 months back else i would still be waiting while 4th link of the family based immigration chain would be getting GC before me. And they still complain that US immigration system is very slow.

Oh, I have bunch of friends whose priority date was only few months apart from mine in the same category. They are now citizens and I am still waiting for green card - to be precise, still waiting for RFE

[texas_]

Got my biometrics appt notice today. The application forms were delivered on 10/23 processed by NBC.

What is your appointment date?
Were online cases updated when uscis sent your fingerprint papers via mail?
Just trying to understand
Please guide

[sudiva]

Please do not depend on online case status. It is not updated for primary and dependent case numbers though appointment date communication has been dispatched from NBC (receipt numbers start with MSC / Missouri Service Center) to reach our mailbox on or before Wednesday 12/30/2020. Interview is scheduled (same date and time for family) about 2.5 - 3 weeks away from receipt of mail from USCIS. Looks like online case status is not updated to reflect most recent activity.

[texas_]

Hmm.. just called USCIS over this
Agent said the biometric application hasn’t sent out as of today however she said there should be some kind of update on my uscis case status when they send out notice for biometrics appointment

Just wanted to make sure I didn’t miss it as my apartment mailbox cluster is being replaced over this week

[kuku82]

What is your appointment date?
Were online cases updated when uscis sent your fingerprint papers via mail?
Just trying to understand
Please guide

It's late Jan. There was no online activity on cases regarding the notices being mailed.

[raradhya]

I applied in EB2-I on 10/28/2020 and received my receipt notices on 12/3/2020. now waiting for bio metrics appointment.
however few of my friends in Eb2 to Eb3 downgrade have not received any notices so far. have people in this forum who downgraded in last 2 months have you heard back from uscis?

[android09]

Hmm.. just called USCIS over this
Agent said the biometric application hasn’t sent out as of today however she said there should be some kind of update on my uscis case status when they send out notice for biometrics appointment

Just wanted to make sure I didn’t miss it as my apartment mailbox cluster is being replaced over this week

USCIS case status does not change when biometrics receipt is sent. I received my biometrics notice earlier this week and my status on USCIS still says Fingerprint fee was received.

[longwaitgigu]

Has anyone read on trump extension of ban
It is extended to march 31st

[android09]

President Trump extends ban on family based green card issuance at consulates until March 31, 2021. Though it can and will be reversed by President Biden, if it doesn’t, then another 6 months of spillover to EB.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN2951VK

[Palver]

Hi everyone, I am a new joiner here. Hoping someone here can share some insights. My PD is Sep-2012 in EB-2I and my employer declined to downgrade to EB-3 in October and I did not push for it at the time. Am regretting that now but do I have any options now? If EB-3 FAD moves beyond Sep-2012 this year, can I file a new I-140 and I-485 concurrently? (assuming I can persuade my employer)

[texas_]

President Trump extends ban on family based green card issuance at consulates until March 31, 2021. Though it can and will be reversed by President Biden, if it doesn’t, then another 6 months of spillover to EB.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN2951VK

Does that means no H1B candidates coming until April 1, 2020 ?
Then there will be very minuscule PERMs filed for the entire year from March 2020 thru March 2021. This would push more spill overs to next FY 22 as well.

Just my guesstimate.

[texas_]

Thanks Android for updates. I spoke with USCIS customer services lady and she said that there's nothing sent out yet for me and my wife
But I would keep an eye on the mails starting Monday 1/4/2021

[rabp77]

Does that means no H1B candidates coming until April 1, 2020 ?
Then there will be very minuscule PERMs filed for the entire year from March 2020 thru March 2021. This would push more spill overs to next FY 22 as well.

Just my guesstimate.

With that kind of spillover, if visas are not wasted, we should see a very significant movement next year also.

New admin may end the executive order. But other rules (such as public charge test) may be difficult to undo, and are likely to stay. Mostly all this should help EB India.

[shivab55]

Today received FP appointment notice, scheduled for 01/22. First time filer EB2 category RD 10/21/2020

[Palver]

New joiner here with a question. My PD is Sep-2012 in EB-2I and my employer declined to downgrade to EB-3 in October and I did not push for it at the time. Am regretting that now but do I have any options?
If EB-3 FAD moves beyond Sep-2012 this year, can I file a new I-140 and I-485 concurrently? (assuming I can persuade my employer)

[aGCHopefull]

Hmm.. just called USCIS over this
Agent said the biometric application hasn’t sent out as of today however she said there should be some kind of update on my uscis case status when they send out notice for biometrics appointment

Just wanted to make sure I didn’t miss it as my apartment mailbox cluster is being replaced over this week

Do you mean live chat (Emma) or did you really have a call with someone? If call with a real person, how do you initiate it? Can you please let us know?

I have not received biometrics appointment yet. (Receipt date 10/9, notice date 11/25, receipts received on 12/2, MSC - NBC). How can I check for the status on biometrics, please advise.

[aGCHopefull]

Today received FP appointment notice, scheduled for 01/22. First time filer EB2 category RD 10/21/2020

Can you please clarify if your file date is 10/21? What is your notice date?

[shivab55]

Receipt Date: 10/21, Notice Date: 11/17, FP Notice Date 12/22, FP physical copies by mail: 01/02

[rabp77]

I had a question. Executive orders are easy to roll back by subsequent presidents. What about rules? As rules are not that easy to roll back, is the public charge rule for gc likely to stay. What is the likely impact of this of future movement?