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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #876
    Quote Originally Posted by mar2010er View Post
    Hi guys, My priority date is exactly March 15th, 2010. Did I miss it by one day? or does it include the 3/15 as well?
    Unfortunately you missed by 1 day. As its FAD, I hope you have already filed for your EAD which you can do so any time (DF is 2014 till Nov-30, 2013 from Dec-1 onwards)

  2. #877
    Hey good news is that they are accepting DF for December.

    https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...-visa-bulletin

  3. #878
    Quote Originally Posted by monsieur View Post
    Unfortunately you missed by 1 day. As its FAD, I hope you have already filed for your EAD which you can do so any time (DF is 2014 till Nov-30, 2013 from Dec-1 onwards)
    Thanks Monsieur. Yes, I have EAD already. Hope to get it next time (sigh)

  4. #879
    Quote Originally Posted by mar2010er View Post
    Thanks Monsieur. Yes, I have EAD already. Hope to get it next time (sigh)
    You have waited patiently for 10+ yrs, this one month shall pass too. One more reason for you to look fwd to 2021

  5. #880
    Quote Originally Posted by monsieur View Post
    You have waited patiently for 10+ yrs, this one month shall pass too. One more reason for you to look fwd to 2021
    Yes, 2020 was a complete wash-off including immigration! More reasons to look forward to 2021.

  6. #881
    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    February bulletin is one to watch out for Inauguration is Jan 20 which is Wed. Maybe they will open the FAD floodgates that Fri as a welcome present.
    Watch out for April bulletin. That would be the beginning of the 3rd quarter, and EB1 India would be current or close to current in the next 3 months. EB2 and Eb3 India would have to move further.
    Last edited by AceMan; 11-20-2020 at 07:05 PM.

  7. #882
    Quote Originally Posted by monsieur View Post
    You have waited patiently for 10+ yrs, this one month shall pass too. One more reason for you to look fwd to 2021
    As long as there is cut off date, some body would always miss the cutoff. This month it is him, next month it is going to somebody else.

  8. #883
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    As long as there is cut off date, some body would always miss the cutoff. This month it is him, next month it is going to somebody else.
    There have been reports that DT admin (S.Miller) is working overtime to issue new regulations before they leave office on 20Jan. Among those are H1B, H4, etc., type regulations. I am even surprised that they moved the EB2 days by 9 days. DT admin will try to burn everything before they leave. So we should not expect anything before Feb VB. Hopefully it will be issued after Jan 20th and not before Jan20th. I really thought that the DOS career officials will move it. Seeing how DT is firing anyone and everyone, I think DOS/CO will try to stay under the radar and invisible till Jan20th.
    LPR Since 07MAY2021

  9. #884
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    Talking

    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    There have been reports that DT admin (S.Miller) is working overtime to issue new regulations before they leave office on 20Jan. Among those are H1B, H4, etc., type regulations. I am even surprised that they moved the EB2 days by 9 days. DT admin will try to burn everything before they leave. So we should not expect anything before Feb VB. Hopefully it will be issued after Jan 20th and not before Jan20th. I really thought that the DOS career officials will move it. Seeing how DT is firing anyone and everyone, I think DOS/CO will try to stay under the radar and invisible till Jan20th.
    Did your friend’s friend’s friend’s friend said this?
    Last edited by EB32010; 11-20-2020 at 07:52 PM. Reason: Added icon

  10. #885
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    There have been reports that DT admin (S.Miller) is working overtime to issue new regulations before they leave office on 20Jan. Among those are H1B, H4, etc., type regulations. I am even surprised that they moved the EB2 days by 9 days. DT admin will try to burn everything before they leave. So we should not expect anything before Feb VB. Hopefully it will be issued after Jan 20th and not before Jan20th. I really thought that the DOS career officials will move it. Seeing how DT is firing anyone and everyone, I think DOS/CO will try to stay under the radar and invisible till Jan20th.
    If we think Miller is working overtime to stop the visa movement to prevent some exceptionally skilled and regular skilled people who are here in the country even before he hit puberty, then I think we should be writing conspiracy theory novels :-)

  11. #886
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    If we think Miller is working overtime to stop the visa movement to prevent some exceptionally skilled and regular skilled people who are here in the country even before he hit puberty, then I think we should be writing conspiracy theory novels :-)
    I think you guys missed two articles that came out quoting Jessica Vaughan. I found the CNN one. I think there was one in Hill also. They said that the admin is calling conservatives asking them what can they do before leaving office. Mind you that DT fired Christopher Krebs for going against him. I think it is reasonable that DOS is trying to stay low. There is no check-in with CO articles recently. No word of what happened to the 25K GCs that were announced in June 2020.
    LPR Since 07MAY2021

  12. #887
    Pandit
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    I don't know what USCIS is thinking. The EB-2 India FAD should be at May 1, 2010 or close to it by now. The more time it takes to reach May 1,2010 the more visas will be wasted in FY 21. Even the new applications should have receded by now so much less workload. What else is stopping them to approve the cases that don't have interview mandate?

  13. #888

    Thumbs up

    Quote Originally Posted by EB32010 View Post
    Did your friend’s friend’s friend’s friend said this?
    No CNN and The Hill articles did.
    LPR Since 07MAY2021

  14. #889
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmys View Post
    I don't know what USCIS is thinking. The EB-2 India FAD should be at May 1, 2010 or close to it by now. The more time it takes to reach May 1,2010 the more visas will be wasted in FY 21. Even the new applications should have receded by now so much less workload. What else is stopping them to approve the cases that don't have interview mandate?
    Interference. There is no other way of explaining this at all. We have spent enough time here to see what's the math and what's happening.
    LPR Since 07MAY2021

  15. #890
    Quote Originally Posted by skpanda View Post
    Was there a live person in the chat? If yes, what options did you choose to get it?

    I am chatting with a bot and it just says

    You will have to wait for your receipt number to arrive in the mail, or be sent to you electronically if you filed G-1145 along with your application/petition. If it has been more than 30 days since you submitted your application/petition and you have not received your receipt notice, please check to make sure your payment was cashed by USCIS.

    If your payment was not cashed, your application/petition might have been lost in the mail or rejected by the Lockbox for some reason. Please email the Lockbox at lockboxsupport@uscis.dhs.gov to inquire about your application/petition.

    If your payment was cashed, please call the USCIS Contact Center at 1-800-375-5283 or 1-800-767-1833 (TTY).
    I called USCIS ph no, didnot ise chat, the no i called 800-375-5283

    Mentioned 485 status check, it asks for reciept number, told ‘i dont have one but i have A#” .. after couple of repeats connected to live agent

    By the way when did your application reach USCIS

    Mine was in Dallas texas service center..

  16. #891
    Pandit
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    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    Interference. There is no other way of explaining this at all. We have spent enough time here to see what's the math and what's happening.
    Interference only in EB-2 and EB-3 categories? In the last 3 months EB-1 India moved 10 months. I find it hard to believe. Most, if not all, of these EB-2 and EB-3 backloggers are already in the country and employed (Well paid too). Kicking the can down the road for only two categories don't make much sense to me.

  17. #892
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    I think you guys missed two articles that came out quoting Jessica Vaughan. I found the CNN one. I think there was one in Hill also. They said that the admin is calling conservatives asking them what can they do before leaving office. Mind you that DT fired Christopher Krebs for going against him. I think it is reasonable that DOS is trying to stay low. There is no check-in with CO articles recently. No word of what happened to the 25K GCs that were announced in June 2020.
    25 K was allocated to Eb1 India. In 2018 we had about 34,000 Primaries waiting for approval till March 2018

  18. #893
    Since this is a predications thread - here's a shot at trying to determine why EB2 is not moving as much...

    Eb2 today has Eb2 + Eb3 > Eb2 as part of the queue. People with PDs < Apr 2010 have had a lot of time to move to EB2. The pending inventory simply does not reflect this. For someone in that group, who originally filed in Eb3 and ported to EB2, they have a choice to make. Either wait in the EB2 queue or go back to EB3. However from what I know going back to EB3 means they need to file a new petition. Which will take time. So for those who are prior to Apr 2010, they may not be keen on starting a downgrade at this time.

    This would imply that EB2 has all those applications that need to be processed.

    Granted there are EB2 users who ported to EB3 back in 2018 - 2019. But those were not much. Most who did that were the ones who missed the 2012 window to file.

    I am not an expert in calculations but a quick back of the book calculation with perms split at 1:2:3 ratio, 70% EB3 > EB2 porting, 2.5 dependents per application and 0% EB2 > EB3 porting tells me there are about 23k applications in the EB2 queue till it hits Apr 2010.

    Considering EB2 gets 5.9k before any spillover calculations which in theory should be available Oct 1st, even my calculations are convervative.

    Long story short - I think the Eb2 > Eb3 factor may only play out for PDs after Apr 2010. EB2 will continue to lag till it clears this hurdle. This also means, anyone with PD > May 2010 should look into the EB3 downgrade

  19. #894
    Sensei
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimmys View Post
    I don't know what USCIS is thinking. The EB-2 India FAD should be at May 1, 2010 or close to it by now. The more time it takes to reach May 1,2010 the more visas will be wasted in FY 21. Even the new applications should have receded by now so much less workload. What else is stopping them to approve the cases that don't have interview mandate?
    another slightly strange thing is the slowing pace of movement for EB2-1 and EB3-1 over the last 3 bulletins. EB3 movement was 106 days in Oct, 44 days in Nov, and 14 days in Dec. EB2 moved 55 days in Oct, 21 days in Nov, and 9 days in Dec. Similar slow down can be seen in movement of EB2-China and Eb3-china also.

    They have been approving cases at a decently fast clip based on trackitt data. So a slow down in FAD movement does not look to be processing capacity related, but more related to visas numbers usage itself. Its difficult to make any sense when so little information is shared. Hopeing the new quarter will result in better news, and that pace would pick up after all applications have been received for the year.
    Last edited by rabp77; 11-20-2020 at 11:03 PM.

  20. #895
    Quote Originally Posted by monsieur View Post
    Unfortunately you missed by 1 day. As its FAD, I hope you have already filed for your EAD which you can do so any time (DF is 2014 till Nov-30, 2013 from Dec-1 onwards)
    why/how did he miss? his date is 03/15/10 which is now current for FAD, no?

  21. #896
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    i dont see dec visa bulletin any more on state website

  22. #897
    Quote Originally Posted by bones20 View Post
    why/how did he miss? his date is 03/15/10 which is now current for FAD, no?
    It's everyone 'before' that FD.

  23. #898
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    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    I think you guys missed two articles that came out quoting Jessica Vaughan. I found the CNN one. I think there was one in Hill also. They said that the admin is calling conservatives asking them what can they do before leaving office. Mind you that DT fired Christopher Krebs for going against him. I think it is reasonable that DOS is trying to stay low. There is no check-in with CO articles recently. No word of what happened to the 25K GCs that were announced in June 2020.
    Can this mean they can pass the H4 EAD revoke rule by jan 20?

  24. #899
    Quote Originally Posted by Justmyself View Post
    Can this mean they can pass the H4 EAD revoke rule by jan 20?
    I doubt if they will do that as they have not done that for the last ~4 years. About the date movement , I had mentioned a couple of weeks ago that we will need to wait for the Biden Administration to staff these departments and give them the green signal to start issuing the GCs. So it will be the Feb or probably the march bulletins where dates will move
    The Current administration will do what it can to stop/slow the issuance hoping that there will be less time for the depts to issue the 265K GCs. This windfall of GCs is an unintended consequence of the consulate closures and they will do what ever they can to "poison the well" and see to it that issuance will get harder for the Biden Admin as they need to complete it by sept 2021.
    Those in the govt depts will not move dates until they feel its safe as they don't want their heads to roll given that the current administration has less than 60 days left. They will just wait it out till the coast is clear or they fell the threat no longer exists.
    So it will be the Feb or probably the march bulletins where dates will move as the departments will not feel the heat from the admin to stop/slow the issuance .

  25. #900
    Quote Originally Posted by kbakshi View Post
    i dont see dec visa bulletin any more on state website
    PLease clear the cache or go incognito . Firefox has issue with caching for the state website

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