EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[vsivarama]

Not sure ! I have seen people being dems before getting GC and moving to red camp the day GC arrives

Yes, you are right and I have seen those people. I do not see things as D's vs R's issues. That's why I commend the old timers in this group like Q, Spec and others who are principled and consistent on issues (immigration here). And just because people flip from D to R does NOT necessarily mean they are anti-immigrant. It just means some other issue has taken up no 1 priority in their life since they do not have to worry about immigration anymore. There are plenty of issues in the world and frankly to a third party, they are all more important than someone's immigration status. But to most people in this forum immigration is probably one of the top priorities. Does that make us bad people? I don't think so.

[vsivarama]

I suppose everyone is pissed off with the Bulletin, especially the EB2-I folks . For EB2 , if we assume a backlog of ~1.5K GCs per month until April 30th 2010 , we will have about 15K GCs that they will need to issue to clear the 2012 backlog.
So with 30K extra green cards in just EB2 and moving dates by just 3 weeks , they will certainly waste GCs again as it won't go past April 2010 . This is just another stalling tactic by USCIS to prevent India from getting GCs. Who ever gets elected is not going to lift a finger for us. The 120K SO is an unintended consequence (so lets not praise anyone) and looks like they doing everything to prevent the issuance of this SO, or the most of it .

BTW for the last fiscal did they issue 144K GCs or did they waste 20K as reported ?

Your argument might have merit when it comes to EB2 as most of the cases are prejudicated. As far as EB3 is concerned, People from May, 2010 just applied for 485 this month. So it does not really matter if the FAD moves past May 2010, No one is getting greened in a month of applying 485. Not throwing in the towel yet.

[AceMan]

All fair points and by mid 2021 lotsa Q1 filers (like us) would be mostly done with admin. processing of adjudications and could be click away when the visas become available (assuming no interviews by then). Obviously painting an optimistic scenario here.

2009 might have little over 4000 applicants remaining.

2010 has little over 22,500 approved 140’s from India. If if you take the most optimistic count the total numbers for 2010 from India is not going to be less than 30,000.

Under one month movement for Eb2 and 1 and half month movement for Eb3 is way below the par rate for 2021. We got 10 more months to see if things speed up by 2nd quarter.

[delguy]

I don't understand your extreme pessimism here. The filing dates were never moved this aggressively in the past decade. This is already unprecedented, I would give a couple more months before doom scrolling here.

Most likely the Filing Dates moved because uscis need money to survive plus they have planned fee increase for adjustment applications to go in effect from Oct 2 which got striked by a court on Sep 30th. So to me this was simply an exercise to mop up money. The way FADs didnt move as per the Spillover from FB is an indication that they still prefer to waste visas than issue them to backlogged countries.

[vedu]

That's not a rule. Its been a general practice with exceptions.

So far, I didn't see any exceptions to general practice this year. Hope things change in the second quarter for everybody's benefit. Until then, I would like to stick with the most conservative scenario and not be disappointed afterwards. Some of this optimism/pessimism also springs from the fact that people on this forum who filed their I-485 recently are in a different state of mind (happy, so optimistic) than other people like us who have filed our I-485 ten years ago (sad, so pessimistic)!

[vsivarama]

Most likely the Filing Dates moved because uscis need money to survive plus they have planned fee increase for adjustment applications to go in effect from Oct 2 which got striked by a court on Sep 30th. So to me this was simply an exercise to mop up money. The way FADs didnt move as per the Spillover from FB is an indication that they still prefer to waste visas than issue them to backlogged countries.

Putting things in context here -

Sept 2019 Visa Bulletin EB2 FAD - 01 JUN 2009
Sept 2020 Visa Bulletin EB2 FAD - 08 JUL 2009
Oct 2020 Visa Bulleting EB2 FAD - 01 SEP 2009
Nov 2020 Visa Bulletin EB2 FAD - 22 SEP 2009

Maybe you are right but the stats so far are encouraging.

[suninphx]

Yes, you are right and I have seen those people. I do not see things as D's vs R's issues. That's why I commend the old timers in this group like Q, Spec and others who are principled and consistent on issues (immigration here). And just because people flip from D to R does NOT necessarily mean they are anti-immigrant. It just means some other issue has taken up no 1 priority in their life since they do not have to worry about immigration anymore. There are plenty of issues in the world and frankly to a third party, they are all more important than someone's immigration status. But to most people in this forum immigration is probably one of the top priorities. Does that make us bad people? I don't think so.

Just to be clear, I don't paint people as good or bad people based which political party they belong to. Both parties have some outstanding leaders.I was simply countering your point by saying that dems may not have much to loose if they choose to benefit more on FB side than EB side, as EB people tend to change the political affiliation based on GC situation (this is just my observation and may not be general phenomenon. Neither I am suggesting it's good or bad. It's just a personal choice people make). And I certainly don't think either party is anti-immigration.

[srimurthy]

Hello folks - I am in a strange situation and do not know how things will transpire. I am current in Nov bulletin with EB2I PD Sep 2009. My EAD/AP is going to expire on Dec 12, 2020. Will they be issuing me a new EAP/AP combo card? My DL is going to expire on the same day Dec 12, 2020 and I am not sure how I should proceed. I
am worried that I will have to be off payroll if EAD is not issued on time. Any suggestions?

I guess you don't have to be off payroll as you already applied for EAD extension and after you receive the receipt it can be considered and can continue working.

[srimurthy]

So far, I didn't see any exceptions to general practice this year. Hope things change in the second quarter for everybody's benefit. Until then, I would like to stick with the most conservative scenario and not be disappointed afterwards. Some of this optimism/pessimism also springs from the fact that people on this forum who filed their I-485 recently are in a different state of mind (happy, so optimistic) than other people like us who have filed our I-485 ten years ago (sad, so pessimistic)!

Vedu - I missed the boat in 2012 as my PD is late 2010 (Sep), and I am still pessimistic that anything will materialize in the next one year. Ideally USICS could have left the FADs in Dec 2011 or 2012 to get any idea of the filings for both EB2I and EB3I.
It is ridiculous playing around by moving dates to 2015 without the ability of moving the FADs sufficiently last year. They could not plan and move to Apr'2010 for EB2I and EB3I where most of the applications have been lying in Q for 10 years, so expecting FAD to clear 2011 and get into 2012 this year is plain fantasy.

[idliman]

Well this is an interesting read from Sheela Murthy and other senior attorneys of her law firm.

Why was there so little movement in the November visa bulletin? Is there any chance that the dates will move more in the coming months?

Answer

We are not sure why there was not more movement in the November 2020 Visa Bulletin. Our best guess is that the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has been receiving a flood of I-485 filings over the past several weeks, and the U.S. Department of State (DOS) – which is in charge of the visa bulletin – is waiting for more data before determining how far to move the cutoff dates. Our hope is that, within the coming months (and perhaps as soon as in next month’s visa bulletin,) the USCIS and the DOS will be able to take stock of the remaining immigrant visa numbers for this fiscal year, and then continue to advance the cutoff dates. In the meantime, we are hoping to hear input from Charles Oppenheim, the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the DOS, as to what we should expect from the coming visa bulletins. (29.Oct.2020)

We can sit here analyze the heck out of VB. Surely things are happening that are beyond our control. An indication might be seen in recent interview of S.Miller in NBC for his plans for the 2nd term of his president.

[rabp77]

Congratulations to all who are current in the Nov 2020 VB. Could you please post your updates regarding your case in this google spreadsheet. This will help monitor progress, and answer any questions.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

[rocketfast]

Congratulations to all who are current in the Nov 2020 VB. Could you please post your updates regarding your case in this google spreadsheet. This will help monitor progress, and answer any questions.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

I am curious on why there is a trend of creating google spread-sheets when there is already a trackitt tracker for I-485 applications here:
https://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigra...ackers/i485-eb

[eb2jun2010]

I got to know yesterday that my company will be acquired in 2 weeks by another company. My pd is June, 2010 eb2 and we sent the 485 package on Oct 20th. I am still waiting for the receipts and hope to get them before the acquisition. Is my 485 in pending status even though I did not receive the receipts?

If the job responsibilities and location remains the same, do we need to amend 140?
What if the company name changes?

I will be reaching out to our existing company attorney to understand my next steps.

Thanks in Advance!

[gaurim17]

Hello gurus,

I have been a lurker on this forum since 2012 when my PD became current for the 1st time. PD is 12/10/2009. Great information here and always love to read the analysis. I was hoping the dates would move closer to my PD in Nov bulletin but unfortunately that has not happened. Still hoping to be current in couple of months. I have a question regarding 485 J. I have not received any RFE since I applied for 485 in feb 2012. I have changed jobs in the last 8 years, applied AC21, etc. Recently I was promoted and the immigration lawyer said that new position is not more than 20% change in duties, so he doesn’t see an issue.

In the past when I have asked the lawyers to apply for 485J, they have asked me to wait for RFE. Given that I am so close to being current and if 485J takes a couple of months to approve, do you all suggest that I insist that the lawyers apply for 485J?

[EB2IndSep09]

Well this is an interesting read from Sheela Murthy and other senior attorneys of her law firm.


We can sit here analyze the heck out of VB. Surely things are happening that are beyond our control. An indication might be seen in recent interview of S.Miller in NBC for his plans for the 2nd term of his president.

Well I agree with your statement Idliman that things are beyond our control.

The answer to me looks biased and this is my take based on experiences of my known associates and me.

The law firm helping my employer and employees did not send the AOS documents till last day possible (the signatures were taken in the middle of this week). And we all hundreds and hundreds of people got confirmation yesterday 10/30 that the files were sent out to USCIS. I heard same story from many of my friends that were dealing with big law firms across the board that the petitions were not sent out up until 10/28 through 10/30.

So my take is law firms tried to keep the two organizations in dark as far as possible (to keep the dates status quo) and the organizations just retaliated by not moving the dates as we all expected them to. Hope in next 2-3 weeks the flood of applications are going to be reviewed and more appropriate data will be available for the organizations to take an informed decision on FA Dates.

[mesan123]

Well I agree with your statement Idliman that things are beyond our control.

The answer to me looks biased and this is my take based on experiences of my known associates and me.

The law firm helping my employer and employees did not send the AOS documents till last day possible (the signatures were taken in the middle of this week). And we all hundreds and hundreds of people got confirmation yesterday 10/30 that the files were sent out to USCIS. I heard same story from many of my friends that were dealing with big law firms across the board that the petitions were not sent out up until 10/28 through 10/30.

So my take is law firms tried to keep the two organizations in dark as far as possible (to keep the dates status quo) and the organizations just retaliated by not moving the dates as we all expected them to. Hope in next 2-3 weeks the flood of applications are going to be reviewed and more appropriate data will be available for the organizations to take an informed decision on FA Dates.

This might be true too... As USCIS would not be able to guess the load... yeap i heard same story from most of my friends using big law firms... i dont know what they gained doing this , as many were so stressed with their cases not filed till last date...

[gkjppp]

Hello folks - I am in a strange situation and do not know how things will transpire. I am current in Nov bulletin with EB2I PD Sep 2009. My EAD/AP is going to expire on Dec 12, 2020. Will they be issuing me a new EAP/AP combo card? My DL is going to expire on the same day Dec 12, 2020 and I am not sure how I should proceed. I
am worried that I will have to be off payroll if EAD is not issued on time. Any suggestions?

Congrats, getting GC in hand may take a couple of months for you. At least in Texas, they approve DL for a year while you are waiting for your EAD/AP renewal. Take an appointment and check with the DL office, you should be good.Congrats once again.

[EB20112021]

EB3 2011 here as well. Thx for asking

[inspired_p]

Question (EB3-I oct 2010) - how many months after the PD becomes current in FAD the GC is issued ? Filed 485 in October; and assuming FAD becomes current may 2021 will the GC issued before Oct 2021

[rabp77]

I am curious on why there is a trend of creating google spread-sheets when there is already a trackitt tracker for I-485 applications here:
https://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigra...ackers/i485-eb

I believe it's mainly because trackitt data cannot be downloaded, people find it easier to follow in google sheets.may be we should just contact the admin of trackitt so the can add this feature, and we can have one source.

[rabp77]

Once it becomes current, the time to approval can vary from 3weeks to 3 months in most cases. The major factor impacting the is wheather there is an rfe. If there is no RFEs, mostly approvals come within 3-6 weeks. In some cases with rfe, it could even take 5 months. But those are exceptions. Also assuming here that the rfe is responded to in a few days.

[newsletter1978]

Gurus, do you think FAD EB2I will advance by one month or more in next bulletin

[SINCE0909]

EB2i movement in Oct VB - 7 weeks
EB2i movement in Nov VB - 3 weeks
EB2i movement in Dec VB - 1 week?
Let’s hope for the best

[bluelabel]

Gurus, do you think FAD EB2I will advance by one month or more in next bulletin

As per July 2018 EB2I pending inventory there are 10727 cases from July 2009 to April 2010. Out of 261000 GC available for FY 2021, EB2 quota is 74780 and India gets 7%(5235) plus spill over.

DOS can issue maximum of 27% of available EB GCs each quarter. If the spillover from 27%(20191) of EB2 is applied quarterly to EB2I then dates should move to May1st 2010 in December Bulletin otherwise 2-3 weeks is the minimum movement we should see.

JULY 968
AUGUST 801
SEPTEMBER 1006
OCTOBER 1127
NOVEMBER 1000
DECEMBER 1148
JANUARY 1086
FEBRUARY 1074
MARCH 1273
APRIL 1244

[ak7419]

This statement from CO is patently false. There is tens of thousands of people from EB-India who are simply waiting for a visa. No processing is needed. All they have to do is simply allocate the visa.

I am one of those but still processing is needed to issue RFEs, isn't it? Almost all of them have expired medicals and we also need to submit 485J. Staff needs to open all of these cases, identify the ones that need RFEs, issue them, wait for their response, re-process the case and then issue GC. Perhaps that is what CO is referring to?