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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #576
    Yoda
    Join Date
    Dec 2018
    Location
    TX
    Posts
    323
    Quote Originally Posted by newyorker123 View Post
    Gurus,
    Question about EB2 NIW and EB3.
    Lets say I have an older EB2 approved with a 2012/2013 PD, and recently got my EB2 NIW approved.
    Can I file (EB3 I140 + I485) with my employer without PERM ? I have not yet started PERM with my current employer. Please advise.
    If you have a petition approved with EB2 NIW then you cannot downgrade to EB3. As my attorney put it, NIW applications do not have an associated PERM and hence you cannot downgrade to EB3 as you do not have a PERM.

  2. #577
    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    If you have a petition approved with EB2 NIW then you cannot downgrade to EB3. As my attorney put it, NIW applications do not have an associated PERM and hence you cannot downgrade to EB3 as you do not have a PERM.
    And NIW is only applicable if you file for EB2.

  3. #578
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Oct 2020
    Location
    California
    Posts
    19
    Gurus,

    Do you know anything about email from NVC for LIVAOS IV fee.
    Does that tell anything about FAD?

  4. #579
    My apologies if this has already been answered. What is the rule for allocating the Spillovers this year? I read a few posts that say it is EB1-> EB2 -> EB3. Another post says that they will just be used to clear out the earliest PD's irrespective of EB Category as long as the 7% Per Country limit is respected. Please clarify.

  5. #580

    How will the Spillover be distributed?

    Quote Originally Posted by YTeleven View Post
    The purpose of having 2 dates is to avoid uncertainity or frequent retrogression of FAD.. FD can move back and forth but FAD should have only forward movement except during last month of the FY.
    What is the rule for allocating the Spillovers this year? I read a few posts that say it is EB1-> EB2 -> EB3. Another post says that they will just be used to clear out the earliest PD's irrespective of EB Category as long as the 7% Per Country limit is respected. Please clarify.

  6. #581
    Its the 26th Noon and still no VB yet. Are they waiting for S.Miller's blessings from the COVID ward? Twitteratis any inside scoop on what's going on?
    LPR Since 07MAY2021

  7. #582
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Feb 2020
    Location
    IL
    Posts
    22
    Folks - What is NIW(National interest waiver) ? I read somewhere this is filed to maintain EB2 standing when requesting a downgrade to EB3. Is this correct ?

  8. #583
    Quote Originally Posted by Viking View Post
    I have seen a lot of folks suggesting keeping H1B status active after getting EAD (pending I-485). The reason I heard is the worst-case scenario if I-485 is denied you go out of status from the day you filed I-485. Can someone provide more perspective, because getting a job with H1B is very very difficult and whats are some other considerations if even after getting EAD you want to keep H1B. Also how it is quite often to get I-485 rejected if you move jobs?
    I am at similar point -I applied concurrently this October first time.
    For me, I am trying to gain some statistical data by general googling. main questions that I am trying to get answered
    1) How likely is it that I-485 will be denied ?
    2) What are major reasons for I-485 denials?

    No real statistics on offer anywhere; but denial rates are very low in EB categories in general.

  9. #584
    Quote Originally Posted by GCMirage View Post
    Folks - What is NIW(National interest waiver) ? I read somewhere this is filed to maintain EB2 standing when requesting a downgrade to EB3. Is this correct ?
    EB2-NIW does not need a PERM as the work is in the national interest of the US. There is no special quota and it also comes under the EB2-I so you won't get any benefit of filing early. There is no requirement to do that while downgrading to EB3. You can't downgrade an EB2-NIW petition to EB3 as there is no underlying PERM.

    https://www.visalaw.com/downgrading-...ed-immigrants/

  10. #585
    How soon should I expect the premium processing check cashed ?
    I assume the premium processing clock
    Starts on the date of receipt number generation ?

  11. #586
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    Its the 26th Noon and still no VB yet. Are they waiting for S.Miller's blessings from the COVID ward? Twitteratis any inside scoop on what's going on?
    Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?

  12. #587
    Quote Originally Posted by gcconnect View Post
    Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?
    That seems to be the only logical explanation. There must be Tens of Thousands applying with a majority to downgrade and I am not sure if they are equipped to handle this volume of work .

  13. #588
    Sensei
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Location
    Riverside CA
    Posts
    94
    Quote Originally Posted by Moveon View Post
    That seems to be the only logical explanation. There must be Tens of Thousands applying with a majority to downgrade and I am not sure if they are equipped to handle this volume of work .
    i think this is probably one of the latest in the month its come out. It should come out this week, we have never had an instance that i know of where the visa bulletin has not be published in the prior month. But its unusual times, and nothing is surprising anymore :-).

  14. #589
    https://twitter.com/ReichlinMelnick/...05551262097408

    This is the kind of 'Service' that is being provided by USCIS. They need to drop the S at the end, pathetic morons. All they know to do is cash our checks and then deny the services.

  15. #590
    Quote Originally Posted by gcconnect View Post
    Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?
    I wonder if it's one of 3 cases:

    1. Lets move the dates extensively for a month and then move to pull the Filing dates back again to get a pipeline of cases to process.

    2. We need the money flowing given other applications have sort of curtailed and we really need to keep this funding going.

    3. We really have green cards to give and the dates lend themselves to be moved forward significantly to help people waiting for years.

  16. #591
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Sep 2019
    Location
    Maryland
    Posts
    26
    Gurus,

    Please comment.

    https://ambals.blogspot.com/2020/10/...l#comment-form

    It says, if USCIS is able to process the cases at scale, there will not be spillover from EB4/5/1 to EB2/3.

  17. #592
    William Stock preposterously predicting India to move to January 2016, please ignore that. Seems like clickbait.

    Siskind replying:
    https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1320858448901361669
    https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1320862173975977987

    @gsiskind
    Replying to @wstock215 and @cyrusmehta
    I don't even want to put my negative prediction out lest the messenger get blamed. I see modest improvement in EB-2 India and bad news for EB-3 India. But Bill is one of my more pessimistic friends and I would very much like things to play out as he's forecasting.

    @gsiskind
    Replying to @ejtaub
    Or Charlie knows there is a tsunami of applications coming this week and wants as accurate an assessment of demand as possible.

  18. #593
    Quote Originally Posted by gcconnect View Post
    Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?
    I don't see any reason for taking time for FD dates as they should be pre-determined. They might need time for FAD dates to plan as they have to print 22k+ GCs every month till Sep to meet the target of 261k..

  19. #594
    Quote Originally Posted by YTeleven View Post
    I don't see any reason for taking time for FD dates as they should be pre-determined. They might need time for FAD dates to plan as they have to print 22k+ GCs every month till Sep to meet the target of 261k..
    It's good that USPS has ramped up operations to support the extraordinary number of mail-in ballots being pushed through. Will help in mailing all those green cards out, eh?

  20. #595
    Just for fun, Q can delete if irrelevant.

    IMG_3752.jpg

  21. #596
    Hello!!

    Question for all who have filed this month, have you gotten the receipt yet?

  22. #597
    Sorry it was a bad copy paste , I think that is what the lawyer was questioning; USCIS rejected I-765 but accepted everything else as if the no fees are in effect

  23. #598
    Quote Originally Posted by inspired_p View Post
    Filed concurrently last week, received I-140 receipt # and both checks (485 and I-140 premium processing ) debited from bank today

    Is your case of Eb2 to Eb3 downgrade ? If so , is premium processing allowed for such downgrade ?

  24. #599
    Quote Originally Posted by rohanvus View Post
    Is your case of Eb2 to Eb3 downgrade ? If so , is premium processing allowed for such downgrade ?
    No. I was in a unique position where PERM was approved but 140 was not filed yet; so I had the option of concurrent filing with premium without any issues
    Last edited by inspired_p; 10-27-2020 at 11:23 AM.

  25. #600
    Quote Originally Posted by rohanvus View Post
    Is your case of Eb2 to Eb3 downgrade ? If so , is premium processing allowed for such downgrade ?
    But What I understand , premium is allowed for downgrade applications as well , just there is a possibility of USCIS not finding the original PERM quick enough to complete the adjudication in the 15 calendar window.

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