EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[Zenzone]

Great. This means people will not know whether the filing dates will be honored in November 2020 or not. USCIS usually takes a week after the VB to update its website. So anyone who is thinking of sending applications based on "DF", hurry-up and send the applications on or before 29OCT2020.

I think USCIS will continue to honor the DF charts in the Oct bulletin through Q1 21 fiscal. But that's not to say that you have to file to Idli's point above! Its always prudent to get it done as fast as you can!

[Spectator]

What I really want to know is can USCIS keep all other countries "current" even after they reach their 7% limit for this year, basically siphoning the extra visas to other countries rather than India. I keep hearing "hidden demand" in philippines and South korea in EB3 category.. but ideally that demand should not matter because those countries should get capped off at 7% ( ~5K visas) for this year.

I’m not sure what you mean by “all other countries "current" even after they reach their 7% limit for this year”

There isn’t a 7% limit for the category “All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed” (sometimes called ROW).

ROW refers to over 200 individual Countries, each of which has their own 7% limit.

If one (or more) of those Countries reaches their 7% limit, then they will be shown separately in the VB with their own Cut Off Dates.

ROW will retrogress in a category when the overall demand is more than overall visas available for that category in the FY.

If overall demand for ROW is less than the number of visas available to them, then horizontal spillover will occur.

As someone else has mentioned, the 7% allocation does not necessarily mean exact prorated numbers in each category.

The 7% figure is calculated based on the total EB & FB allocations
e.g. (271,500 + 226,000) * 7% = 34,825.

Lower use elsewhere can allow more use in a category, so long as total use across all categories (both EB & FB) does not exceed the total 7% figure.

You can't make the blanket statement of "those countries should get capped off at 7% ( ~5K visas) for this year" because it doesn't quite work like that.

Only a handful of Countries even approach 7% overall use.

[inspired_p]

I’m not sure what you mean by “all other countries "current" even after they reach their 7% limit for this year”

There isn’t a 7% limit for the category “All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed” (sometimes called ROW).

ROW refers to over 200 individual Countries, each of which has their own 7% limit.

If one (or more) of those Countries reaches their 7% limit, then they will be shown separately in the VB with their own Cut Off Dates.

ROW will retrogress in a category when the overall demand is more than overall visas available for that category in the FY.

If overall demand for ROW is less than the number of visas available to them, then horizontal spillover will occur.

As someone else has mentioned, the 7% allocation does not necessarily mean exact prorated numbers in each category.

The 7% figure is calculated based on the total EB & FB allocations
e.g. (271,500 + 226,000) * 7% = 34,825.

Lower use elsewhere can allow more use in a category, so long as total use across all categories (both EB & FB) does not exceed the total 7% figure.

You can't make the blanket statement of "those countries should get capped off at 7% ( ~5K visas) for this year" because it doesn't quite work like that.

Only a handful of Countries even approach 7% overall use.

Thank you Spec. This explains a lot. I did not know 7% is for overall visas and not calculated per country per category. This would mean that Philippines South Korea high demand in EB3 may use up available visas if they don’t have any other visa allocation in other categories
Thank you for clarifying this.

[rabp77]

Thank you Spec. This explains a lot. I did not know 7% is for overall visas and not calculated per country per category. This would mean that Philippines South Korea high demand in EB3 may use up available visas if they don’t have any other visa allocation in other categories
Thank you for clarifying this.

yeah...of late it looks like per country cap is being applied across the EB + FB. But as i recollect, a few years ago, the per country cap used to be applied separately to the EB and FB.

[inspired_p]

yeah...of late it looks like per country cap is being applied across the EB + FB. But as i recollect, a few years ago, the per country cap used to be applied separately to the EB and FB.

Yes. Considering this, the horizontal spillover to EB3-I will be considerably less, also EB3-philipines and EB3-Vietnam might be current for the whole year allowing as many as 34K- other demands). And even when USCIS knows this, they moved the dates for EB3-I to Jan 15 2015. It really just baffles me, but its a step forward for all who can now apply for EAD/AP, even if FAD don't reach that date.

[optimista]

My understanding is that if you lose your job before 180 days after filing your I-485, you have to redo your PERM and I-140, but get to keep your priority date. So assuming many of you who are eligible sent out your applications to reach in the first week of Oct, you will be free in April 2021.

https://www.alllaw.com/articles/nolo...rocessing.html

No, I have not heard anything like this before. Please see my other response on this. I have been told by 2 lawyers to the contrary. Cheers.

[longwaitgigu]

Yes. Considering this, the horizontal spillover to EB3-I will be considerably less, also EB3-philipines and EB3-Vietnam might be current for the whole year allowing as many as 34K- other demands). And even when USCIS knows this, they moved the dates for EB3-I to Jan 15 2015. It really just baffles me, but its a step forward for all who can now apply for EAD/AP, even if FAD don't reach that date.

Based on this explanation
How much horizontal spillover can we expect in eb3 and till what dates would be moved beginning of 2011?

[inspired_p]

Based on this explanation
How much horizontal spillover can we expect in eb3 and till what dates would be moved beginning of 2011?

Considering that EB3 Philippines and Vietnam were current in Oct 2019 and not current in Sept 2020, they used up more than their 7% overall quota of 34K last year , we should not be surprised if they use that up this year as well albeit more in EB3 category and less in FB category.
I really do not know how to make sense of these numbers obviously. Hope we get better answers from the gurus.

[richie.rich]

One of my friend is planning to downgrade and his lawyer sent him this. Anyone hear something similar?

“We wanted to make you aware of some issues arising from EB-2 to EB-3 downgrades in today’s immigration environment.

Some immigration attorneys are reporting that I-140 EB-3 downgrade cases are being returned by the USCIS. Apparently, if we mark that it’s a ‘new’ case and not an ‘amendment’ of a previously filed and approved I-140 EB-2 application, today’s USCIS doesn’t consider the underlying PERM labor certification to be valid for the EB-3 case.

This is contrary to law and past practice in these types of situation. The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) is currently challenging this USCIS procedural issue and we will keep you posted on the outcome.

Having said that, we want to make sure everyone makes an informed decision based on the above, so please note the following:

If we file the I-140 EB-3 downgrade as a ‘new’ case, there is a decent possibility USCIS will return it, along with the accompanying I-485 application(s). If this happens, the employee will still retain the EB-2 I-140 approval and will have to wait until they are eligible to file their AOS under EB-2 and/or when clear guidance is issued by USCIS for EB-3 downgrades. If we file the I-140 EB-3 downgrade as an ‘amended’ case, the USCIS will likely accept it and the accompanying I-485 application(s). As previously discussed, if the USCIS denies the amended I-140 petition, the I-485 applications, will, in turn, be denied. The employee will, however, still retain the I-140 EB-2 approval. If the USCIS approves the EB-3 I-140 as an amendment, the employee will lose the EB-2 approval and will be in EB-3 for the rest of the green card application process.”

[Zenzone]

Yup same here, only started posting since last year. I used to post in Murthy forum a long time back (~2005-2006) and used to remember JoeF lecturing everyone though he did always provide accurate information. I lost interest in GC and other things after that and only picked it back up last year. I do plan to hang around and post and help others after I get my GC. Barring any immigration reform, there is going to be another decade of suffering on the horizon for backlogged EB2/3-I folks, and I plan to provide them with help and support through their difficult times as others have done so here.

For someone who started posting just last year, that's a pretty good run rate of posts I appreciate your thoughts!

[chhablsa]

You just made me login and write something, I have been a loyal reader of this forum. I drifted away for some time because nothing was moving in the GC world for Indians but it seems COVID brought new hope for Indian citizens for GC. So spending a little more time nowadays on this forum. Always appreciated the wealth of information and intellect I see here, no other forum is civil and respectful like this one. I am not knowledgeable enough to advise someone and I think you and many other gurus are doing a darn good job. Thank you for that. I am one more count in EB2 from June 2012. My company declined the request to downgrade, so waiting to see how things are going to turn up in the next six months. As redsox advised I will keep pushing my organization and if a change of heart happens I will jump on to EB3 boat because it seems that's the only way I may get greened soon enough. Again Thanks for all your wisdom it certainly helps to keep nerves under control

[longwaitgigu]

Any predictions for eb3 india by gurus after spectator post

[qesehmk]

You are absolutely correct COVID has certainly opened up a window that otherwise just was not possible at all.

I just want to say the COVID effect is going to spill over into 2022 as well i.e. next October we will see some more spillover. Imagine this. The consulates won't be operating fully well at least until Feb next year. If biden is elected they will start operating at full capacity IMHO if it's trump, they will find any excuse to stifle FB visas. So EB will be benefited regardless.

There is one more ray of hope for EB folks. That is removal of country caps. Both senate and house are quite educated on country caps and so you should expect to see removal push regardless who wins.

You just made me login and write something, I have been a loyal reader of this forum. I drifted away for some time because nothing was moving in the GC world for Indians but it seems COVID brought new hope for Indian citizens for GC. So spending a little more time nowadays on this forum. Always appreciated the wealth of information and intellect I see here, no other forum is civil and respectful like this one. I am not knowledgeable enough to advise someone and I think you and many other gurus are doing a darn good job. Thank you for that. I am one more count in EB2 from June 2012. My company declined the request to downgrade, so waiting to see how things are going to turn up in the next six months. As redsox advised I will keep pushing my organization and if a change of heart happens I will jump on to EB3 boat because it seems that's the only way I may get greened soon enough. Again Thanks for all your wisdom it certainly helps to keep nerves under control

[qesehmk]

You just made me login and write something, I have been a loyal reader of this forum. I drifted away for some time because nothing was moving in the GC world for Indians but it seems COVID brought new hope for Indian citizens for GC. So spending a little more time nowadays on this forum. Always appreciated the wealth of information and intellect I see here, no other forum is civil and respectful like this one. I am not knowledgeable enough to advise someone and I think you and many other gurus are doing a darn good job. Thank you for that. I am one more count in EB2 from June 2012. My company declined the request to downgrade, so waiting to see how things are going to turn up in the next six months. As redsox advised I will keep pushing my organization and if a change of heart happens I will jump on to EB3 boat because it seems that's the only way I may get greened soon enough. Again Thanks for all your wisdom it certainly helps to keep nerves under control

And welcome! You said quite aptly that while none of us have any ability to accelerate GC for anybody else, we can certainly soothe nerves by sharing information and experiences in a cooperating and respectful manner.

[chhablsa]

You are absolutely correct COVID has certainly opened up a window that otherwise just was not possible at all.

I just want to say the COVID effect is going to spill over into 2022 as well i.e. next October we will see some more spillover. Imagine this. The consulates won't be operating fully well at least until Feb next year. If biden is elected they will start operating at full capacity IMHO if it's trump, they will find any excuse to stifle FB visas. So EB will be benefited regardless.

There is one more ray of hope for EB folks. That is removal of country caps. Both senate and house are quite educated on country caps and so you should expect to see removal push regardless who wins.

Thank You Q - Yourself, Spec, YTeleven, redsox, Kanmani you all are the studded stars of this forum. Even though my wait (like many of us) for GC is forever, I always find my solace here on this forum. "Turbulent_Dragonfly" inspired me to come out of my "read only" mode by delivering > 200 messages in a year, that rate is actually "turbulent fast".
After COVID first time I am hopeful that I may get GC in this lifetime and if a per country bill passes then that day will be true for many of us. Fingers crossed

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Some chatter about aggressive movement of dates in Nov bulletin:

https://twitter.com/wstock215/status...06680431329280

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1319651350532247552

[mesan123]

I had submitted my 485 application package on Oct 5th, USCIS received on Oct 6th. On Oct 19th I received text notifications with case numbers for all 3, 485, 131 and 765. USCIS tracker shows that the applications were received and notices are in the mail.

Congratulations. Could let us know Which service center? I m guessing your date was current and filed 485 and not a downgrade?

[tomhagen]

Some chatter about aggressive movement of dates in Nov bulletin:

https://twitter.com/wstock215/status...06680431329280

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1319651350532247552

18 months jump ??.. aapkaa muhmee sakkar sarkaar .. That will be a blessing of the century

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

18 months jump ??.. aapkaa muhmee sakkar sarkaar .. That will be a blessing of the century

Yeah I am a bit surprised that Siskind supported that 18 month prediction. He is usually cagey about making VB date movement predictions.

[redsox2009]

One of my friend is planning to downgrade and his lawyer sent him this. Anyone hear something similar?

“
Some immigration attorneys are reporting that I-140 EB-3 downgrade cases are being returned by the USCIS. Apparently, if we mark that it’s a ‘new’ case and not an ‘amendment’ of a previously filed and approved I-140 EB-2 application, today’s USCIS doesn’t consider the underlying PERM labor certification to be valid for the EB-3 case.”

If you are downgrading with an existing approved EB-2 then you have to file as an amendment. On the I-140 application Part2, Checkbox in Part 1.e should be selected and Part 2a should be selected and provide old EB2 Approved Case number.


The rest of the required info is straight forward as old I-140.

[mcmilers]

I don't think either Siskind or Stock spelled out 18 months. They are simply saying the FAD movement will be big... lets hope thats true.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I don't think either Siskind or Stock spelled out 18 months. They are simply saying the FAD movement will be big... lets hope thats true.

Yeah true that. I thought Siskind was responding to another reply which made the 18 month prediction. He was just responding to Stock's post. I sure hope they move the filing date for EB2 at least another year or so.

[incredible]

Yeah true that. I thought Siskind was responding to another reply which made the 18 month prediction. He was just responding to Stock's post. I sure hope they move the filing date for EB2 at least another year or so.

I have asked our attorney about the movement and what he thinks for my PD (02.10.10) for EB2 FAD. He mentioned that it will be current in the November bulletin. I am keeping my fingers crossed.

[newyorker123]

Gurus,
Question about EB2 NIW and EB3.
Lets say I have an older EB2 approved with a 2012/2013 PD, and recently got my EB2 NIW approved.
Can I file (EB3 I140 + I485) with my employer without PERM ? I have not yet started PERM with my current employer. Please advise.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I have asked our attorney about the movement and what he thinks for my PD (02.10.10) for EB2 FAD. He mentioned that it will be current in the November bulletin. I am keeping my fingers crossed.

Wow, that is pretty optimistic! 5+ month movement will be insane and obviously welcome!