Around 260k. They stated that approx 67k visas remained unused.
Originally Posted by srisri
Around 260k. They stated that approx 67k visas remained unused.
Thank you Spec.
74000 is a good dent on the super big India backlog. I hope another 100000 gets processed in 2022.
28k EB2I isn't big compared to the huge backlog in that category, and I hope that this year at least 60k-70k of EB2I gets approved.
What doesn't make sense to me is if only 28,246 visas were approved for EB2-I then how at the end of FY-2021, the final action date for EB2-I was at September 2011? And further it now continues to move into 2013 towards 2014. 28,246 constitutes only about 6-7 months of demand being met for EB2 (including dependents), and if prior to FY 2021 EB2 final action was stuck in 2009 then it should now realistically be 6-7 months or so ahead and not 3-4 years (from 2009).
I suppose maybe that implies a lot of people dropped out/left the country or moved to EB-1 or something else, and the demand is much less than then theoretical number of I-140s?
Last edited by gammaray; 04-14-2022 at 12:57 PM.
Good catch Gamma. I thought about the numbers and progression as well and have some addition to your explanation.
Apart from regular things like people moving to eb1, and many of early PD folks have multiple i140 and have both spouses approved i140.
Also there are a lot of job changes in 2020 and 2021, so some people have been waiting for perm even though dates are current.
Other explanation apart from above-
2021:
I think ROW demand became more than what state dept expected in 2021 in both EB1 and eb2. So together with the wastage and higher ROW demand, the FAD in India EB2 was ahead than how much it should have been.
2022: (my guess only and nothing else)
A good chunk of eb3 processed in 2021 were eb2 downgrades. So that reduced the inventory to some extent.
This year the expectation of carry over from EB1 to EB2 is much larger.
They are also expecting to process significantly more visas than last year so EB2I can benefit as most of the higher count should fall in eb2I category after vertical and horizontal spillover.
They are expecting higher ROW and PH demand in EB3, hence minimal horizontal spill over into EB3, so limited movement.
I understand that but the math doesn't still quite make sense. There must be a missing piece. Assuming a mean of 55K/year demand for EB2-I -- from 2009 (FAD before 2021) to 2014 (current FD) is 5 years which amounts to 5 X 55k = 275,000 (+/-) demand. In 2021, 28K EB2 visas were granted so the current pending inventory till 2014 = 247,000. I believe about 30-40K downgraded to EB3, plus maybe some percentage upgraded to EB1, plus some duplicate/abandoned applications. There would still be about 180K or so demand left I would think. Even if all of the 140K spillover for FY2022 was granted to EB-2 (which of course is not true) even then the date shouldn't reach 2014.
An explanation could be a much higher number of downgrades to EB3 occurred, maybe in the 100K range ( which would mean almost everyone from 2013 and 2014 in EB2 downgraded to EB3 when the FD was Jan 2015 in EB3).
Last edited by gammaray; 04-15-2022 at 11:17 AM.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/15/polit...ion/index.html
Sen Lee's role in efforts to overturn the election.
And then to think that this was the same guy who was used by his own party to advocate an immigration bill that his own party member held back and eventually the bill died.
Why is this important? It's because some of the backlogged folks mix up Indian right wing politics with American right wing. To be honest I have personally ZERO sympathy for either. However I don't care about personal politics.
For their own benefit, EB backlogged folks will do well to not mix Indian and American right wings. It is in your own own interest folks to understand that Democrats are much more immigration friendly compared to GOP.
You don't need to be a democrat supporter. But just be wise enough to know which horse to bet on.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q,
I agree with you in these views in general. But I have been avoiding commenting on politics for sometime as I saw relations/friendship getting destroyed over rise of increasingly rabid form of right wing across world in 10 years. India's case is going wrose from bad.. with majority (electoral majority from North/West combined, not all) trying to force their views/form of belief on everyone. Food, language, religion, how to do what, painting everything with us vs them, with religion and what not.once again, this is not by commong indians from these regions but the politicians from these region bringing up and poking people there to keep their emotions stimulated for votes.
Here in USA dangerous trends are there but democratic pillars like judiciary, media are still strong even if they can be stronger on side vs another. But freedom is fiercely defended here. In India dominance and super powerful man trait is liked and prayed by many.
I will possible try to delete this post in few mins or try to edit so it gets auto deleted
Sebiswaiting said:
Today 11:03 PM
Hi Gamma,
Refer this report from USCIS.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...-JONYKHsFxMX-h
Your estimated number seems much higher.
Total i140 for India from 2009 to 2014 is around 110000. Now assuming below scenarios it changes like this...
Original - 110,000
Minus 5% duplicate - 99000
Minus 15% both spouse w EB2 - 84000
Minus 20000 downgrade to EB3 - 64000
Minus 12000 upgrade to EB1 - 52000
Minus 1000 found love - 51000
Minus 6000 out of race/dead/moved - 45000
Multiply by 2.5 family count - 112000
Minus 28000 processed in 2021 - 84000
If actuals are somewhere near my assumption, and EB2I gets 85000 slots this year then 2014 can be cleared.
Few nuances..
Upgrade to eb1 may be less.
Downgrade to eb3 was surely more than 20k but many would interfile so considered 20k those who got in EB3 or for EAD so sticking there. Percent of spouse having sponsorship may be more too.
Q/admin - There is an issue in mobile version of this blog on page edit. If I try to edit, and click anywhere, let's to edit a word, the delete button gets pressed. It happened many times in past and happened today as well. So Inreryowd this whole post again
I saw it in my HTC and now Galaxy s21
Any day Republicans are better than Democrats. Extreme left and extreme right have their elements in each parties.
PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21
I agree, hadn?t been for Trump?s policies slowing down EB1 usage, EB2I wouldn?t have benefited from the spillover resulted from COVID shutdown.
Selfish me taking side, 20 year wait is making me take sides.
I recently had a discussion with a friend of mine who is an active BJP supporter in India. He was pointing some things from the new world from his Indian perspective. The Pakistani/Iranian college students leaving Ukraine using Indian flags to get away is a powerful sign of time to come. Pakistan supported US and just see where they are with Imran Khan crying about Indian self-respect. We never heard that from a Pakistan premier before. India buying crude oil from Russia at a discount and US cannot do anything about it. No blockade, no threats not even a murmur from US. I asked him why still Petrol/Diesel/Kerosene prices are high, he mentioned India has to focus on having money which may be used in Sri Lanka to get them out of debt and we get better authority with them compared to China.
Great points, finally I asked the H1 limits for 2023 is 85,000 and the applications received is 420,000+. How many of them would you think are Indians? He said it doesn't matter, most of them are nationalist anyways, and not traitors like you who make fun of Indian leaders after settling in US. I again asked what do you understand about the word traitor? Did you mean to say a person with a different opinion is a traitor? Is it like L K Advani from your own party, whose views does not matter anyways for you guys now. Finally I realized our view points are now poles apart, meaning it will be very difficult to have a sane conversation on a these topics with him in future.
PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21
It is never a discussion when people get anxious and start calling names. I have seen people who are from US and have their share of solving problems by engaging volunteers at grass root levels and alleviate poverty. Helping farmers and families of farmers who have committed suicide quietly. It is just resolve to solve problems that drives them. Most of the keyboard warriors get anxious and call people names but in reality they don?t do anything.
I used to do that in India till 2018. For the last 4-5 years i support at local churches, temples and local pantry. Those places i can volunteer in person as well.
PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21
The url doesn't work. Assuming that number is from uscis, it's only primary applicants. 110000 in 5 years is 22K/ year which sounds right (range is generally 20k - 24k per year, much higher 2015/2016 onwards). If you factor in dependents and multiply 110K by 2.1 to 2.5 is where you get close to the number I was using.
I'm not sure how anyone can make that statement, generally, but especially after Jan 6, 2021. People naturally (inbuilt or a product of their environment) have a right or left leaning in matters of fiscal policies and social preferences, et al; and that is okay, but to say group of political people are better just because they generally concur with certain views, while completing ignoring what nonsense they spew in the media and otherwise , is really ridiculous (and this not just the extreme right it 's a majority of the party). No President and party in modern US history has ever not conceded the election, spread blatant lies and conspiracies (yes even Kevin Mccarthy, house minority leader refused to acknowledge a Biden win for several days). And I won't even get into the Jan 6 insurrection, or the shambles the previous admin was, with blatant nepotism of family and friends holding cabinet and advisory positions of running a country with absolutely no qualifications or experience in the field (Miller was a speech writer and next step was immigration czar, because of course that's logical) -- and the party supported, fought and lied for such an administration.
No matter what political views people hold, but if anyone can still believe and count such a group of people as "good" then I guess there isn't much else to say. It's painful that 30-40% of the country already is so brainwashed and partisan to the point that they completely ignore and minimizes what their side does, and believes the evil is on the other side, but to think that even future citizens are of a similar mold is just sad.
Also, for folks that support a particular side just because of an untended consequence of an anti-immigrant stance adopted by the previous administration, helped them get a gc sooner, is imo, self servient, short sighted and, well, pathetic. I would hope that the US gets better future citizens that think about the state of the country and all it's people and not only what just what helps them. It's like people saying coronavirus was a good thing, or hoping it doesn't go away, because 20 year gc wait time was too much, but nevermind the almost 1 million people dead in this country and 6 million plus dead worldwide.
This is just a vent and I definitely won't want to get into a discussion on this matter so I'll refrain from any other future responses.
Last edited by gammaray; 04-18-2022 at 01:09 PM.
Right Gamma, the list is from USCIS. I used a multiplying factor of 2.5 as well. What's your take on the assumptions, and flaws/misses. I am pretty sure EB1 upgrade is less than what I considered, both spouse having EB app might be more than my assumption and but there might be few more who aren't in the race any more.
Agree. And I also think that generally all powers that be are united against EB immigration. The slavery works well for the corporations, the lawyers, the USCIS, the politicians. The only mild difference is that dems actually in principle are pro immigration and have consistently advocated for all immigration.
Whereas - republicans are rabidly anti and only made a show of being for EB India and used Sen Mike Lee for that purpose.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
It has become absolutely difficult to have any conversation. So it is best to stick to immigration!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q, unfortunately I have to disagree here. Yes, you are right that democrats have a pro immigrant rhetoric. But they have zero intent to help the immigrants as we have seen over the years. They will not pass any meaningful legislation even with majority across all chambers. So apart from the rhetoric which doesn't help anyone. I would say the intent to make a difference for legal immigration for Sen Durbin = Sen Lee = zero. Republicans show us the wolves that they are while democrats are wolves in sheep's clothing.
Last edited by vsivarama; 04-20-2022 at 06:24 PM.
Not just rhetoric - they have always passed legislation for immigration reform only to be met with republican wall.
In case of sen lee - a republican - they supported his legislation - and his own party - republicans failed his legislation.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
One recent legislation which has proved to be real gift for us backlogged focks is around i140 180 days. Obama admin also tried for EAD. Without the clarity on priority dates being locked after the 180 days of i140 irrespective of it the employer i140 after that, it would have become a long long waiting game of almost forced relation with your employer.
It is pure politics where Dems use Rs as cover for their inaction. Obama had super majority in first two years and did not pass any pro immigration legislation. Later he entrusted the immigration bill to the gang of 8 where Lindsay Graham and Rubio (the definition of bad faith actors) royally screwed the immigrants. Dems where fully aware of Rs intent but still let the s***show continue. More recently they did not pass immigration related provisions through budget reconciliation because the Senate Parliamentarian objected to it. When Rs want to pass a legislation and senate parliamentarian objects they just fire the parliamentarian. (happened when Robert Dove objected to tax cuts in Bush regime). Legal dreamers where left high and dry when they issued DACA. Maybe the nonchalance of the Dems when it comes to passing meaningful immigration reforms had made me this cynical. I don't think they deserve the support of immigrants because they are 5% better than Rs when it comes to legal immigration. Not doing something and keeping the status quo going is easy. That's why you see the politicians cough up 1000s of excuses for not improving the lives of their constituents. Doing something to help their constituents is hard and there is only ever one reason to do it. Because it's the right thing to do.
Last edited by vsivarama; 04-20-2022 at 10:00 PM.
can't agree more with @vsivarama, Obama was disastrous on his last tenure with immigration, had raised very high hopes of EAD with I-140 and instead threw a paltry H4-EAD.Pureplay vote bank politics.Atleast Rs are clear they will get nothing done....sheep in wolve's clothing is even more dangerous
SRC; EB2 -> EB3; I-140 approved ; PD 06/2013; RD 11/05/2020; BM -- Sep '2021; EAD 03/22; I-485 Xferr NBC -- 04/25
You are ignoring reality that dems have time and again pitched immigration reform - every time shot down by reps.
I can't fathom how you can blame obama for doing something and equate that with republicans who are utterly racist and are on the record saying they are open to immigration from norway but not from other parts of the world.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
This is true.
It's amazing how some immigrants believe the world revolves around them. Obama picked healthcare as first priority when the dems had the super majority. But apparently having universal healthcare for 330 mil citizens of a country is not as important as legal backlog of 1M. That makes perfect sense. Ironically he was crucified for healthcare anyways with the fight to Supreme court continuing 10 years after the law passed -- why you may ask? because the other side terms it as "Socialism". No one should be forced to pay for healthcare because well we are "free" folks in this country. But we are willing to keep paying for uninsured folks because hey that means we are protecting "freedoms" (I always wondered why that doesn't apply to car and house and other insurances where there is no "freedom" to choose, or retroactively to social security for that matter). But that digressing. Obama faced unprecedented obstructionism (mostly for the color of his skin imo even though he's half-white, but that's a separate matter) especially after the first two years, when the house was lost. The house refused to simply pass anything of note, including immigration, which the Senate had passed. His last few years essentially turned into lame duck for that reason with only the executive orders going through which is where some of reforms were made for legal immigration.
There are currently 10 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 10 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
