EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[Palver]

Hey everyone, I have an approved I-140 with PD-Sep2012 from my previous employer (A). I am about to join employer A next month in a similar but different role. How similar must the new job be for me to use the existing 140 and not have to go through perm/140 again with A? Given that I may be able to file I-485 in November if USCIS accepts DOF chart, I'm trying to see what options I have at this point.

[sling10]

Boss, you just made an answer back into a question.
Yes.

Haha, that's my way of double checking

[Sebiswaiting]

I have a theory...
Charlie reads all predoctions in all the formula, and then puts a date that is not in any prediction for eb2,eb3 India
Such a sad day today with current visa bulletin. It doesn't make much sense either. There should not be much downgrades from eb2 2010,2011 into eb3. So practically 0 movement for eb3 this year even with the spillover.

[Transformer]

Boss, you just made an answer back into a question.
Yes.

140 approved as well

[sling10]

140 approved as well

Yes, Approved I-140, FAD current, 485 filed

[gsingh]

Now that all the dates are settled around 2012, will most people in 2009/2010/2011 get Green Cards by 2022 ?

What happens to people with 2012 PD - Get Green cards, or endless wait with EADs ? [My PD: Jan 2012]

Any calculations, anyone ?

My PD is April 2012.

What are the thoughts of the wise minds here ? Are we back to just a few days of movement per month like in 2019 and before ?
Can we expect any forward movement for rest of the fiscal year for EB3 ?

[newyorker123]

Now that all the dates are settled around 2012, will most people in 2009/2010/2011 get Green Cards by 2022 ?

What happens to people with 2012 PD - Get Green cards, or endless wait with EADs ? [My PD: Jan 2012]

Any calculations, anyone ?

I am still in EB2 by the way. [PD: Jan 2012]. I was thinking there is some chance I might get GC in 2022. But you never know. EB2 Final Action Dates have to move couple of months, and thousand other stars need to align.

[sling10]

I am still in EB2 by the way. [PD: Jan 2012]. I was thinking there is some chance I might get GC in 2022. But you never know. EB2 Final Action Dates have to move couple of months, and thousand other stars need to align.

From a visa bulletin / DOS point of view, Jan 2012 should become current in the next couple of bulletins as it has already reached Dec 2011. Getting the GC is a different story, but, I feel that is possible for Jan 2012 EB2 in this fiscal year as the FAD will reach Jan 2013 by the end of this fiscal year.

[Immig7]

@qsehmk, Experts - Trying to make some rational sense of the now Nov bulletin and that consistently proves there cannot be one.. But still trying.. So based on the below chart which is the most current available on uscis, together between EB2I and EB3 I, there were roughly 25K-27K I140s applied in 2011, 2012, 2013 respectively. Assuming a factor of 2.5, it's roughly 190K.
With the spillover we received last year and this year, and USCIS approving close to 170K 485s (which i assume will be mostly India), how are we still where we are? Shouldn't we have been in 2014/2015 this year? Is my math completely screwed up or am I missing some key point?

Can anyone help please?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2021_Q1_Q2.pdf

[qesehmk]

@qsehmk, Experts - Trying to make some rational sense of the now Nov bulletin and that consistently proves there cannot be one.. But still trying.. So based on the below chart which is the most current available on uscis, together between EB2I and EB3 I, there were roughly 25K-27K I140s applied in 2011, 2012, 2013 respectively. Assuming a factor of 2.5, it's roughly 190K.
With the spillover we received last year and this year, and USCIS approving close to 170K 485s (which i assume will be mostly India), how are we still where we are? Shouldn't we have been in 2014/2015 this year? Is my math completely screwed up or am I missing some key point?

Can anyone help please?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2021_Q1_Q2.pdf

Your direction seems good and I don't really think you need my advice. Sometimes we can do all the right calculations and VB still doesn't make sense. I have been doing this for about 10 years now and I can tell you that there are too many moving parts and that's why I finally built WhereismyGC. Don't mean to use this as a plug for the commercial service. Just saying that linear math works for the most part when there are not too many moving parts. But when there is dynamic between different countries, categories, visa spillover, downgrades, upgrades, and of course USCIS DOS idiosyncrasies that is where you need simulation rather than linear math. There also is a dynamic of time lag between labor filings, PD assignment, 140 filing and 485 filings. So that's what makes forecasting and predictions an art rather than science.

p.s. - VB movement is extremely difficult rather impossible to predict because VB operates on the razor edge of demand vs supply. It is controlled very tightly. The variance/error in any predictions or forecast model is much much higher than that razor edge. And predictions on somewhat larger scale are more trustworthy.

[Sebiswaiting]

Only thing you may need to consider is, there was backlog in eb1 as well. 'mostlt India' is also not sure. On a usual year eb2, eb3 india has been getting just the regular 7%, so rest of world was consuming the remaining, so row was consuming 110-120k at least, and same might hold true this year too.

@qsehmk, Experts - Trying to make some rational sense of the now Nov bulletin and that consistently proves there cannot be one.. But still trying.. So based on the below chart which is the most current available on uscis, together between EB2I and EB3 I, there were roughly 25K-27K I140s applied in 2011, 2012, 2013 respectively. Assuming a factor of 2.5, it's roughly 190K.
With the spillover we received last year and this year, and USCIS approving close to 170K 485s (which i assume will be mostly India), how are we still where we are? Shouldn't we have been in 2014/2015 this year? Is my math completely screwed up or am I missing some key point?

Can anyone help please?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2021_Q1_Q2.pdf

[gammaray]

@qsehmk, Experts - Trying to make some rational sense of the now Nov bulletin and that consistently proves there cannot be one.. But still trying.. So based on the below chart which is the most current available on uscis, together between EB2I and EB3 I, there were roughly 25K-27K I140s applied in 2011, 2012, 2013 respectively. Assuming a factor of 2.5, it's roughly 190K.
With the spillover we received last year and this year, and USCIS approving close to 170K 485s (which i assume will be mostly India), how are we still where we are? Shouldn't we have been in 2014/2015 this year? Is my math completely screwed up or am I missing some key point?

Can anyone help please?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2021_Q1_Q2.pdf

Well, the PD was in 2009 before the spillover so you are missing including 2009 and 2010 demand. Additionally, if USCIS approved close to 170K last year, not all went to India. The normal quota is 140K of which India gets 7% plus any spillover from ROW. Assuming the spillover from ROW was substantial last year but obviously not 100%, India would have gotten 7% of 140K + few thousand ROW spillover + 30K (all visas above 140K would go 100% to the most backlogged country, assuming all the ROW demand in met in the 140K which it was). SO it was nowhere close to 190K-200K.

[rohanvus]

Check out my signature. I am still waiting. What about you ?

Mine is being done by company's lawyer and they said they are almost ready with the application and will be filing early next week .
Last year it took 3/4 months for downgrade folks to get receipt numbers . Hope this has become better now .
Keep us posted when you get receipts

[sling10]

Mine is being done by company's lawyer and they said they are almost ready with the application and will be filing early next week .
Last year it took 3/4 months for downgrade folks to get receipt numbers . Hope this has become better now .
Keep us posted when you get receipts

If interested, you can join this telegram group for all October 2021 filers who post updates :

https://t.me/joinchat/ke94sdmVpDs1Yzkx

[Immig7]

True. I agree. Need to add 2009 and 10. As far as 170K - i still think a lot would have gone to india considering consulates were closed last year. If uscis can make things a little more transparent it will help so much!.. Alas, it;s a black whole.

[Immig7]

Agree Q.. Getting stuck in this black whole has been excruciating pain.. so trying to see if there's anything positive , and something lock my son's age.

[qesehmk]

Agree Q.. Getting stuck in this black whole has been excruciating pain.. so trying to see if there's anything positive , and something lock my son's age.

I believe Final Action Date Locks your child's age. I know how painful this whole thing is not to mention all the financial and emotional burden. But lets say s/he ages out, I believe you can still sponsor him/her later on as unmarried son/daughter. But I hope it doesn't come to that.

[LeoAugust]

Anyone aware if being on H1B can a person put money in ai.marketing (since a robot will be work for you)? Please let know if it is safe from h1b stand point.

[qesehmk]

Anyone aware if being on H1B can a person put money in ai.marketing (since a robot will be work for you)? Please let know if it is safe from h1b stand point.

You can run it as a business and draw business income but not wages in any shape or form. I "think" then that would be ok.

[LeoAugust]

Thanks @qesehmk. Since I will be investing into it, I will not be taking any wage.

[qesehmk]

Thanks @qesehmk. Since I will be investing into it, I will not be taking any wage.

Sounds perfectly alright to me.
p.s. - On another note volunteering doesn't require any work authorization. So if your spouses feel their career is on hold, they can volunteer for a not for profit and gain experience. Believe me as soon as they get EAD that experience will turn out very valuable.

[LightAtEndOfTunnel]

Just once again feel cheated by the whole system: employers, lawyers, USCIS and politicians. It almost feels like they are all working together to make sure that we remain shackled and dependent on these prison walls (plugging a shawshank redemption quote : "These walls are funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, you get so you depend on them. That's institutionalized.").

My story is probably not unique and there are thousand others like me who came so close to getting adjudicated and now face retrogression. I am talking to my employer to see if they can allow me to file another I-485 EB2 AOS petition while EB3 downgrade is still pending (without withdrawing current petition). My HR manager has probably never dealt with all these tricky plays and any recommendation he makes will scale by thousands so he is not willing to allow me to file EB2 I-485, even though I said I can cover legal fee and you just need to sign the paperwork to allow use of approved EB2 I-140.

Waiting in retrogressed EB3 at Nebraska Service Center is not going to do any good, I can keep filing interfile requests, keep raising SRs, congressional inquiries and USCIS will just shake them off like a dog with bad case of fleas. Feel so hopeless and helpless.

[qesehmk]

Just once again feel cheated by the whole system: employers, lawyers, USCIS and politicians. It almost feels like they are all working together to make sure that we remain shackled and dependent on these prison walls (plugging a shawshank redemption quote : "These walls are funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, you get so you depend on them. That's institutionalized.").

My story is probably not unique and there are thousand others like me who came so close to getting adjudicated and now face retrogression. I am talking to my employer to see if they can allow me to file another I-485 EB2 AOS petition while EB3 downgrade is still pending (without withdrawing current petition). My HR manager has probably never dealt with all these tricky plays and any recommendation he makes will scale by thousands so he is not willing to allow me to file EB2 I-485, even though I said I can cover legal fee and you just need to sign the paperwork to allow use of approved EB2 I-140.

Waiting in retrogressed EB3 at Nebraska Service Center is not going to do any good, I can keep filing interfile requests, keep raising SRs, congressional inquiries and USCIS will just shake them off like a dog with bad case of fleas. Feel so hopeless and helpless.

Sorry to hear that Light. Do you know 485 is YOUR application. Company has nothing to do with it. You can file 485 as EB2 or EB3 as long as you have the right underlying 140. Companies usually are secretive about the 140 and rarely will provide you a copy. So I am not sure how but I just want you to at least understand that 485 is your application and you only use 140 as the basis for that application.

[freedomseeker]

Hello Experts,

My Priority-Date is 08/23/2011 on EB-2-India Category and my attorney will be filing the applications (I-140+PP+I-485+I-765+I-131+I-693) for me (and my family) sometime next week. I hear from them that due to the concurrent-filing scenario, all my applications need to be submitted to the Texas Service Center. I also heard from one of my friends (who recently received his GC) that it is the I-140+PP that will get processed in the Texas Service Center and the rest of the applications (I-485+I-765+I-131+I-693) will be transferred from Texas SC to some other Service Center. I wanted to check with you all if the statement that I heard from my friend is a valid one - can you please confirm/correct on this aspect?


Thank you!

[alpha0]

Sounds perfectly alright to me.
p.s. - On another note volunteering doesn't require any work authorization. So if your spouses feel their career is on hold, they can volunteer for a not for profit and gain experience. Believe me as soon as they get EAD that experience will turn out very valuable.

Wow, happy to know some people are trying to get real experience. Most spouses i have seen just jumped into IT job market with 3 months of training and 10 years of fake resumes.