EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[inspired_p]

Summary of Charlie's live video yesterday

-EB3-I No forward movement in FY 2022. He saw extreme surge of EB3 applications, Retrogression is expected.
-EB2-I may move slowly in coming months
-He already considered 290K visa including 150K spillover for FY 2022. That is not sufficient for FY 2020 pending applications.

Now only hope left on reconciliation bill

Gurus - Any insights ?

I think this was expected. 262K visas were supposed to be allocated in FY2020 and based on that DOS moved the dates in Oct 2020. But USCIS has wasted ~80K to 90K visas , issuing only 180K at the most. Hence, even though FY2021 has potential of 290K visas out of that 80K have already been accounted for in FY2020 demand without getting greened.

But for the wastage of 80K visas last year, we would have seen a very similar surge in PD in the Oct 2021 bulletin.

[qesehmk]

But for the wastage of 80K visas last year, we would have seen a very similar surge in PD in the Oct 2021 bulletin.

This I am not sure about. I will have to some day sit down and look at it. My gut feel is that the dates were moved in 2021 with assumption that all visas will be utilized but since now the visas are significantly underutilized the visa office thinks a further date movement for backlogged countries may not be needed.

[inspired_p]

This I am not sure about. I will have to some day sit down and look at it. My gut feel is that the dates were moved in 2021 with assumption that all visas will be utilized but since now the visas are significantly underutilized the visa office thinks a further date movement for backlogged countries may not be needed.

Unless I am misunderstood; that's the same point I am making . If the wastage of visas had not happened visa office would have had to move the PDs out to get more applications, currently the 80K plus applications waiting to be adjuticated makes further movement not a necessity

[MidWestMaverick]

Unless I am misunderstood; that's the same point I am making . If the wastage of visas had not happened visa office would have had to move the PDs out to get more applications, currently the 80K plus applications waiting to be adjuticated makes further movement not a necessity

Follow-up question - has the potential wastage/USCIS processing limitation been assumed in FY22's in deciding the DOF ? If no, then this will horror story will repeat next september as well...

[qesehmk]

Unless I am misunderstood; that's the same point I am making . If the wastage of visas had not happened visa office would have had to move the PDs out to get more applications, currently the 80K plus applications waiting to be adjuticated makes further movement not a necessity

Yes indeed!

[qesehmk]

@gc_dedo posted this question about COVID and Travel to India. I think this is important to many of us.
Please take a look and share if you have first hand experience!

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...eling-to-India

[rsnake]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/19/polit...ion/index.html

[inspired_p]

Follow-up question - has the potential wastage/USCIS processing limitation been assumed in FY22's in deciding the DOF ? If no, then this will horror story will repeat next september as well...

Apparently, the DOS has taken the realistic approach. I think DOF will not move anymore in FY2022, and as stated by charlie there might be retrogression in FAD for EB3 as well soon
I don't foresee too many see saw movements in FAD

[idliman]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/19/polit...ion/index.html
Washington (CNN)Senate Democrats likely will not be able to include a pathway to legalization for millions of immigrants in their $3.5 trillion bill to expand the country's social safety net after new guidance from the Senate parliamentarian Sunday night.

Disappointing news for those hoping for a miracle.

[qesehmk]

Disappointing news for those hoping for a miracle.

For FB certainly a bad news. But for EB it's a bit of a mixed news.

Their choice was either receive another 150K+ extra visas from FB (now more likely) or reclaim last year's 100K unused and keep using it until it is exhausted (under the new legalization add on to infra bill).

On plus side eitherway EB would benefit with extra visas and on the negative side it really doesn't matter much if EB India gets more or less numbers when USCIS continues to underutilize the numbers and country caps remain in force.

[MidWestMaverick]

Apparently, the DOS has taken the realistic approach. I think DOF will not move anymore in FY2022, and as stated by charlie there might be retrogression in FAD for EB3 as well soon
I don't foresee too many see saw movements in FAD

I agree with you on DOS's approach. On one hand people (like me) will miss on atleast getting EAD, but this approach will save them from the headache of retrogression/see-saw movement atleast for EB2 in the near future. I am hoping/guessing EB2 and 3 queues get into a state of equilibrium by September 2022.

[rohanvus]

gammaray - Looks like you have great knowledge on the I-693 form and the associated process !! Good info...

Hey Sling ,

Hope your filing process is going smoothly .
Just to clarify - We don't need I-944 form anymore while filing 485 or is that still applicable ?

[sling10]

Hey Sling ,

Hope your filing process is going smoothly .
Just to clarify - We don't need I-944 form anymore while filing 485 or is that still applicable ?

Hey rohanvus, Yes I-944 is not needed anymore. Following forms will be needed :

G-1145 (Optional)
I-485
I-485 Supplement J (Only for the primary applicant)
I-765
I-131
I-693

I presume you are filing by yourself too. How are you packaging the entire application. I am separating them by form types, for eg: 485 for me and my dependents in 1 envelope, 765 for me and my dependents in another envelope and 131 for me and my dependents in a 3rd envelope and then putting all the 3 envelopes in a single big envelope. Is that how you are packaging your application too ?

Also, are you fastening the forms by punching holes using a double hole punch and then using fasteners to fasten them OR just using a big paper clip to hold the form along with the supporting documents together ?

[gammaray]

Hey rohanvus, Yes I-944 is not needed anymore. Following forms will be needed :

G-1145 (Optional)
I-485
I-485 Supplement J (Only for the primary applicant)
I-765
I-131
I-693

I presume you are filing by yourself too. How are you packaging the entire application. I am separating them by form types, for eg: 485 for me and my dependents in 1 envelope, 765 for me and my dependents in another envelope and 131 for me and my dependents in a 3rd envelope and then putting all the 3 envelopes in a single big envelope. Is that how you are packaging your application too ?

Also, are you fastening the forms by punching holes using a double hole punch and then using fasteners to fasten them OR just using a big paper clip to hold the form along with the supporting documents together ?

You should not be punching anything. There are several guides/instructions online on how to assemble packages. Here are a couple:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXc0mGmBcWI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxIZvLwwzN0

[sling10]

You should not be punching anything. There are several guides/instructions online on how to assemble packages. Here are a couple:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXc0mGmBcWI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxIZvLwwzN0

gammaray - Thanks for the links ! Infact, I have watched them before. The form filing tips link on the USCIS website : https://www.uscis.gov/forms/filing-g...rm-filing-tips mentions the following :

Use fasteners to hold together thick or bulky applications or petitions. Two-hole punching the top of the material for easy placement in the file is appreciated.

I am inclined towards not hole punching the package.

[newyorker123]

Disappointing news for those hoping for a miracle.

Lots of action happening on the political frontlines, so not all hope is gone. For instance, yesterday there were talks of moving the immigration registry date from 1972 to a later date, lets say X - which will effectively grant GC to anyone in US who came before X. The Parliamentarian can be overridden too - happened earlier this year.

This is the last chance for Dems to push immigration reform. Next year being Election year.

[idliman]

Lots of action happening on the political frontlines, so not all hope is gone. For instance, yesterday there were talks of moving the immigration registry date from 1972 to a later date, lets say X - which will effectively grant GC to anyone in US who came before X. The Parliamentarian can be overridden too - happened earlier this year.

This is the last chance for Dems to push immigration reform. Next year being Election year.

I wish sucess for everyone and most importantly for all the backloggers to get out of this queue. If you have followed my posts so far, I always tell everyone to not trust their AILA attorneys and their company (blindly). While I never had any issues with my company (or most US based companies), I find it that for most of the India based IT companies this is an issue for many. You have to have enough knowledge to analyze what the attorneys are recommending. Try not to blindly follow what the company / attorney are offering as a solution.

On the topic; I came across a post that said that Dick Durbin never submitted the Employment based provisions for review by the Senate Parlimentarian. I leave you to analyze the true intention of Democrat here and you can replace it with Republicans easily if they are the majority. Second, it looks like Greg Siskind lawsuite for GC uasage has been tossed out by the judge. Third the latest talk is to set the registry date to 1JAN2010. That may help a few who landed here before 2010, but most backloggers will still be in the backlog.

It is my understanding that everyone knows that backloggers are the golden goose. Everyone wants to take advantage of the backloggers, be it the company or the AILA attorneys. I know it is very hard to be grounded when these things pop-up once in a while (I went through that). My advice would be to get on with your lives and try not to get emotionally attached to these things that are beyond your control.

[qesehmk]

Everyone wants to take advantage of the backloggers, be it the company or the AILA attorneys. I know it is very hard to be grounded when these things pop-up once in a while (I went through that). My advice would be to get on with your lives and try not to get emotionally attached to these things that are beyond your control.

Absolutely

[longwaitgigu]

Hello idliman
What do you mean by registry date?

[idliman]

Hello idliman
What do you mean by registry date?

Legalization Through "Registry"
Hope This Helps!

[longwaitgigu]

Thankyou idliman
I never knew this kind of rule exists.
Does it have to pass through house and Senate?

[longwaitgigu]

I have a question if any one can answer please
There is a theory which I am reading everywhere- uscis approving green cards with PD of 2011, 2012, 2013 rather than 2009,2010 coz they r predicting 2009 and 10 will stay current so it could be utilized from 2022 quota.
I have filed in November 2020 and PD- OCT- 2010 and still not received i485j or GC. Ead/ap approved in August. I see many approvals past my RD and PD. So I am thinking the above theory is applicable.
It is really frustrating and agonizing that we have to suffer and see people beyond our PD getting GC. All of a sudden PD doesn't matter.
The question is
Will uscis start approving cases from PD 2009 and 2010 starting oct 1st as the deadline of using numbers will not mandate them?
Thankyou all for insights

[alpha0]

Legalization Through "Registry"
Hope This Helps!

If it was that easy, i am surprised Obama did not change the registry date when he could.

[andhraguy]

I have a question if any one can answer please
There is a theory which I am reading everywhere- uscis approving green cards with PD of 2011, 2012, 2013 rather than 2009,2010 coz they r predicting 2009 and 10 will stay current so it could be utilized from 2022 quota.
I have filed in November 2020 and PD- OCT- 2010 and still not received i485j or GC. Ead/ap approved in August. I see many approvals past my RD and PD. So I am thinking the above theory is applicable.
It is really frustrating and agonizing that we have to suffer and see people beyond our PD getting GC. All of a sudden PD doesn't matter.
The question is
Will uscis start approving cases from PD 2009 and 2010 starting oct 1st as the deadline of using numbers will not mandate them?
Thankyou all for insights

I do not agree with that theory. My take is USIS is still prioritizing 2009, 2010 cases and taking immediate action on these cases wherever possible. Also trying to utilize maximum visa usages by allocating GC to those having straight cases and has no RFE. so far what I saw 2012,2013 cases who got their GC recently is mostly due to No RFE and straight cases. There might be some exception, some luck and how adjudication officer is working.

Few cases are pending for final approval since 4-5+ months after submitting medicals, where are few cases are getting approved with in 1-2 weeks after RFE response is received. My friend your PD is 2010 and you will definitely get approval soon. Just matter is time. your PD is not going to retrogress. you have weighted so long, few more days/months.

[gcconnect]

I have a question if any one can answer please
There is a theory which I am reading everywhere- uscis approving green cards with PD of 2011, 2012, 2013 rather than 2009,2010 coz they r predicting 2009 and 10 will stay current so it could be utilized from 2022 quota.
I have filed in November 2020 and PD- OCT- 2010 and still not received i485j or GC. Ead/ap approved in August. I see many approvals past my RD and PD. So I am thinking the above theory is applicable.
It is really frustrating and agonizing that we have to suffer and see people beyond our PD getting GC. All of a sudden PD doesn't matter.
The question is
Will uscis start approving cases from PD 2009 and 2010 starting oct 1st as the deadline of using numbers will not mandate them?
Thankyou all for insights

Not sure which theory is applicable for this approval process. Waiting for 10 years was so simple and never tensed. This Zig zag approvals makes me so nervous. I have given Biometrics in Jan 2021 and same status is going on...