EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[gammaray]

Looks like the Siskand lawsuit for USCIS adjudication delay was a bust (unsurprisingly of course -- hard to argue against what's in the INA and against a subjective process such as visa adjudications).

https://twitter.com/LilySAxelrod

[AceMan]

Looks like the Siskand lawsuit for USCIS adjudication delay was a bust (unsurprisingly of course -- hard to argue against what's in the INA and against a subjective process such as visa adjudications).

https://twitter.com/LilySAxelrod

196 people paid $ 2025 for this charade.

[andhraguy]

Gurus: my PD is 7/8/2011 -EB2. I?m current since September 1st and my employer is filing with Medicals.

Do you think skipping EAD and AP will speed up the process?

Thanks

EAD/AP and I-485 application process on a different path. I-485 approval does not depends on EAD/AP. I don't think it will speed up the approval process if you skip EAD/AP. Yes it will save you few hundred dollars

Submitting Medicals with I-485 application and NO RFE will definitely speed up the process.

[andhraguy]

Any insights on reconciliation bill. Democrats hope to approve without any Republican support.

https://thehill.com/latino/572118-ho...ciliation-bill

[qesehmk]

196 people paid $ 2025 for this charade.

That's ok. They tried. They should keep trying and keep raising visibility. Thats the only way to build mass support.

If I were in the court I would argue that the plaintiff's are awaiting not 7-8 months but 10-20 years. I would also ask USCIS why the delay in processing. Why it is so hard to adjudicate cases of people who are in the country legally for 15 years. I would have spent money on legal research to expose systemic bias and forced USCIS to defend itself that there is no bias and they are efficient. I would have literally asked them to provide approval timelines by country of origins across all kinds of applications.

That's why folks - not 196 but 196000 people should raise 2K each. Something on a much larger scale is needed to build a much better argument to expose systemic bias and then sue the heck out of them for civil damages to people's lives and careers.

[bangaloreboy]

Gurus: my PD is 7/8/2011 -EB2. I?m current since September 1st and my employer is filing with Medicals.

Do you think skipping EAD and AP will speed up the process?

Thanks

I dont think it impacts how soon you will get approved. It depends if EAD/AP is important to you...you skipping might help the backlogged community in general since it reduces workload, in a miniscule way...

[Positive]

That's ok. They tried. They should keep trying and keep raising visibility. Thats the only way to build mass support.

If I were in the court I would argue that the plaintiff's are awaiting not 7-8 months but 10-20 years. I would also ask USCIS why the delay in processing. Why it is so hard to adjudicate cases of people who are in the country legally for 15 years. I would have spent money on legal research to expose systemic bias and forced USCIS to defend itself that there is no bias and they are efficient. I would have literally asked them to provide approval timelines by country of origins across all kinds of applications.

That's why folks - not 196 but 196000 people should raise 2K each. Something on a much larger scale is needed to build a much better argument to expose systemic bias and then sue the heck out of them for civil damages to people's lives and careers.

100%. This should have been class action. They should file a class action asap because the story of wasted visas is going to repeat itself next year. There is zero evidence that USCIS has hired any extra workers to handle the avalanche of EB AOS filings in the past year or plan to do next year despite it being a user funded agency and despite millions of dollars they collected from the applicants the past year.

[AceMan]

That's ok. They tried. They should keep trying and keep raising visibility. Thats the only way to build mass support.

If I were in the court I would argue that the plaintiff's are awaiting not 7-8 months but 10-20 years. I would also ask USCIS why the delay in processing. Why it is so hard to adjudicate cases of people who are in the country legally for 15 years. I would have spent money on legal research to expose systemic bias and forced USCIS to defend itself that there is no bias and they are efficient. I would have literally asked them to provide approval timelines by country of origins across all kinds of applications.

That's why folks - not 196 but 196000 people should raise 2K each. Something on a much larger scale is needed to build a much better argument to expose systemic bias and then sue the heck out of them for civil damages to people's lives and careers.

I think you missed the big picture here. USCIS did not include the potential spill over for FY22 in the October bulletin. That means they get to do whatever they can. This law suit screwed up the chances for filers beyond 2013.

[MKPD2015]

I think you missed the big picture here. USCIS did not include the potential spill over for FY22 in the October bulletin. That means they get to do whatever they can. This law suit screwed up the chances for filers beyond 2013.

Hi Aceman,

Sorry am a bit confused here. How can you say that USCIS did not include potential spillover for Fy22 in Oct Bulletin? If they didn't, why would the bulletin say EB3 could retrogress as early as Nov and potential final action date for ROW applicants ? Also how come EB2 filing dates moved 7 months to July 8, 2012 without spillover consideration.

[sudebusa]

I think you missed the big picture here. USCIS did not include the potential spill over for FY22 in the October bulletin. That means they get to do whatever they can. This law suit screwed up the chances for filers beyond 2013.

Totally agree with you. That lawyer (GS) is a snake; he didn't sue to help the immigrants. He always has just two goals, earning money and screwing us. This lawsuit just gave a hall pass to USCIS to waste more visas in FY2022.

[AceMan]

Hi Aceman,

Sorry am a bit confused here. How can you say that USCIS did not include potential spillover for Fy22 in Oct Bulletin? If they didn't, why would the bulletin say EB3 could retrogress as early as Nov and potential final action date for ROW applicants ? Also how come EB2 filing dates moved 7 months to July 8, 2012 without spillover consideration.

Compare the bulletin in October 20 and October 21. For October 20 they had EB numbers at 262500 whereas for October 21 it shows 140,000. There is no ROW applicants waiting to apply yet. The lawsuit by great lawyer ensured that going forward USCIS will show only 140,000 and allocate the spillover at their whims and fancy.

[Sebiswaiting]

Spillover is by law isn't it, so it has to be counted whether in Oct or Nov. Utilising them is another thing. I personally don't think this lawsuit will do anything to make USCIS hurt 'ego' or anything. USCIS work will be determined a lot by the administration , uscis leader, and the overall guidance it recieves top down.

With estimated 85k wastage from this year, a lot of 'demand' will spillover to next year too, and the supply spillover from fb will take care of these demands. In the process new applicants, like us with pd in 2014, 2015 etc lost out due to broken system/incompetent USCIS planing/opaque rules in terms of utilising visa in the early quarters.

If somehow Immigration provisions in budget recon moves forward, we can see some hope.

Compare the bulletin in October 20 and October 21. For October 20 they had EB numbers at 262500 whereas for October 21 it shows 140,000. There is no ROW applicants waiting to apply yet. The lawsuit by great lawyer ensured that going forward USCIS will show only 140,000 and allocate the spillover at their whims and fancy.

[qesehmk]

I think you missed the big picture here. USCIS did not include the potential spill over for FY22 in the October bulletin. That means they get to do whatever they can. This law suit screwed up the chances for filers beyond 2013.

Nope there is no big picture - at least not the way you see it.

First the VB is not a USCIS thing. It is DOS thing. Particularly the visa availability is solely determined by DOS (USCIS can ask for a visa and tell DOS how many they used. But USCIS is not custodian). Typically DOS takes a month or two to determine visa availability. CO has already indicated the availability (which I am 80% sure will be bigger than last year). So no USCIS is not playing any games in this VB.

As per the lawsuit, I do not have any information that makes me believe it has harmed any future chances for EB folks. The lawyer earned some money. Of course. But is it any secret? And since when it is a crime for a lawyer to earn money? It is not a good idea to accuse somebody - particularly a lawyer - without specific information. I don't know Greg Siskind even remotely. I am sure he has no clue who I am. I have no reason to defend him or his lawsuit. I do think most immigration lawyers are in bed with corporations when it comes to H1B slavery. But I don't go about naming specific people. It's not very wise for many different reasons.

Finally - if you think this lawsuit was complete waste of money then what in your opinion is remedy or way forward for backlogged people?

IMHO they need to fight in the court of law as well as in the court of public opinion.

[AceMan]

Nope there is no big picture - at least not the way you see it.

First the VB is not a USCIS thing. It is DOS thing. Particularly the visa availability is solely determined by DOS (USCIS can ask for a visa and tell DOS how many they used. But USCIS is not custodian). Typically DOS takes a month or two to determine visa availability. CO has already indicated the availability (which I am 80% sure will be bigger than last year). So no USCIS is not playing any games in this VB.

As per the lawsuit, I do not have any information that makes me believe it has harmed any future chances for EB folks. The lawyer earned some money. Of course. But is it any secret? And since when it is a crime for a lawyer to earn money? It is not a good idea to accuse somebody - particularly a lawyer - without specific information. I don't know Greg Siskind even remotely. I am sure he has no clue who I am. I have no reason to defend him or his lawsuit. I do think most immigration lawyers are in bed with corporations when it comes to H1B slavery. But I don't go about naming specific people. It's not very wise for many different reasons.

Finally - if you think this lawsuit was complete waste of money then what in your opinion is remedy or way forward for backlogged people?

IMHO they need to fight in the court of law as well as in the court of public opinion.

Visa bulletin is issued by DOS. They also know the count of FB visa processing and exact count to date the number of visas processed in consulates. They had clearly indicated 262 K visas available in October 2020 bulletin, this number came down to 140K in October 2021. Just a glance at Specs document would make it clear there are going to be nearly 150K + visas spilled over from family to EB for FY22. They just set it to mandated 140K for 2022. The spillover rule mentions about visas from FB to EB. Nowhere it insist on DOS/USCIS to clear more than 140K visas minimum a year for Employment. Anything more is at their mercy. This is where this lawsuit directly impacted in the decision making of DOS. USCIS made maximum efforts to use the available visas, however this lawsuit ensured that no more than 140K for FY22.

The jumping gun lawyer screwed up in 2015 with visagate lawsuit. All you need is to read the live tweets which clearly indicated how this lawsuit is going to end. Lawsuit is not a crime, but the 196 people who joined for a screwed up lawsuit is the reason why lawyers like him will continue these shenanigans totally detrimental to EB applicants.

Backlogged people - People beyond 2015 have the option for spouses to work. Almost all the new people coming in are skilled couples, they can make enough money. Many Indians who worked in Middle East did that for last 50 years. The 7% rule is designed to keep non-European immigration in control and just don't even bother to join any immigration action plans. There are no friends for EB immigration in any party. Don't confuse sympathetic views, it is all working with an angle. Grassley, Schumer, Durbin all are experienced hands with their own agenda's and Employment immigration is not a priority for them. The only person who was really sincere about this was Kevin Yoder, but his own party and special interest groups torpedoed him.

Now you mentioned public opinion. We had an article in SF times few years back when people were talking about H4EAD withdrawal. One person was mentioned her concern of paying their 4500 mortgage amount if she loses the job. There was counter by another journalist claiming while Americans are jobless H4EAD takes all the high paying jobs and they have million dollar mansions, the journalist conveniently ignored the fact that SFO is most expensive average real estate in US. But it was intended and succeeded in creating some public aversion against highly paid Indians around US.

Lawsuits just give you a feeling that you have avenues to address your concerns. In reality it is just a tool for lawyers to squeeze more money out of gullible applicants. The questions asked by the Judge in the lawsuit makes it very clear that he has no clue of what the case was about and the plaintiff law firm is totally inept to handle the case. But with nearly $400,000 in the account, he is laughing all the way to the bank.

[qesehmk]

Visa bulletin is issued by DOS. They also know the count of FB visa processing and exact count to date the number of visas processed in consulates. They had clearly indicated 262 K visas available in October 2020 bulletin, this number came down to 140K in October 2021. Just a glance at Specs document would make it clear there are going to be nearly 150K + visas spilled over from family to EB for FY22. They just set it to mandated 140K for 2022. The spillover rule mentions about visas from FB to EB. Nowhere it insist on DOS/USCIS to clear more than 140K visas minimum a year for Employment. Anything more is at their mercy. This is where this lawsuit directly impacted in the decision making of DOS. USCIS made maximum efforts to use the available visas, however this lawsuit ensured that no more than 140K for FY22.

The jumping gun lawyer screwed up in 2015 with visagate lawsuit. All you need is to read the live tweets which clearly indicated how this lawsuit is going to end. Lawsuit is not a crime, but the 196 people who joined for a screwed up lawsuit is the reason why lawyers like him will continue these shenanigans totally detrimental to EB applicants.

Backlogged people - People beyond 2015 have the option for spouses to work. Almost all the new people coming in are skilled couples, they can make enough money. Many Indians who worked in Middle East did that for last 50 years. The 7% rule is designed to keep non-European immigration in control and just don't even bother to join any immigration action plans. There are no friends for EB immigration in any party. Don't confuse sympathetic views, it is all working with an angle. Grassley, Schumer, Durbin all are experienced hands with their own agenda's and Employment immigration is not a priority for them. The only person who was really sincere about this was Kevin Yoder, but his own party and special interest groups torpedoed him.

Now you mentioned public opinion. We had an article in SF times few years back when people were talking about H4EAD withdrawal. One person was mentioned her concern of paying their 4500 mortgage amount if she loses the job. There was counter by another journalist claiming while Americans are jobless H4EAD takes all the high paying jobs and they have million dollar mansions, the journalist conveniently ignored the fact that SFO is most expensive average real estate in US. But it was intended and succeeded in creating some public aversion against highly paid Indians around US.

Lawsuits just give you a feeling that you have avenues to address your concerns. In reality it is just a tool for lawyers to squeeze more money out of gullible applicants. The questions asked by the Judge in the lawsuit makes it very clear that he has no clue of what the case was about and the plaintiff law firm is totally inept to handle the case. But with nearly $400,000 in the account, he is laughing all the way to the bank.

Ace there are 3 things you speak of so I will keep it succint:
1) The VB - the bottomline is the number will be revised - no doubt. Last year may be an exception. Traditionally the number is not immediately know. Go back into history and look for yourself if you don't believe me.
2) The lawsuit - Even if we assume the lawsuit was ill conceived and executed - that by itself doesn't mean people should stop trying. May be another more competent lawyer can be useful.
3) The path forward - Your suggestion that people work 50 years like in middle east is completely unacceptable to me. And I am fairly certainly you won't find even 1% backers to that.
4) The public opinion - There always is and will be opposition as you try to make your case. You should not even try to win over the hardliners. Just focus on middle of the path people. There is plenty of americans who fall in that category. Remember trumpsters are still 37% or so in number. Majority of Americans are not racist and value hardwork and talent.

[AceMan]

Ace there are 3 things you speak of so I will keep it succint:
1) The VB - the bottomline is the number will be revised - no doubt. Last year may be an exception. Traditionally the number is not immediately know. Go back into history and look for yourself if you don't believe me.
2) The lawsuit - Even if we assume the lawsuit was ill conceived and executed - that by itself doesn't mean people should stop trying. May be another more competent lawyer can be useful.
3) The path forward - Your suggestion that people work 50 years like in middle east is completely unacceptable to me. And I am fairly certainly you won't find even 1% backers to that.
4) The public opinion - There always is and will be opposition as you try to make your case. You should not even try to win over the hardliners. Just focus on middle of the path people. There is plenty of americans who fall in that category. Remember trumpsters are still 37% or so in number. Majority of Americans are not racist and value hardwork and talent.

1. I concur with you. Last year may be an isolation to the years before. They give the exact numbers in the September bulletins which is the last one of a FY.
2. The lawsuit from GS was nefarious and designed to loot money from EB immigrants. This is the statement from September 21 bulletin "The fiscal year 2021 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 262,288." The law mandates minimum usage of 140,000. So there was no wastage as claimed by GS. But just like many of guys in the past who claimed EB1C abuse, the lawyer managed to get 196 gullible souls to cough out $2025. People will still continue to cry EB1C abuse.
3. I was defining a base line expectation. HR 3012 came a decade back. Due to different learning experiences by IV that bill never passed even after many iterations. Even if the 100 % of backlogged people are against it, people in power do not care as you are not a vote bank.
4. While I agree Biden administration removed lot of hassles for non-immigrant visa holders, nothing favorable came to backlogged EB applicants. Majority of Americans are silent, complicit and downplay racist overtures. The hard left and hard right have identical agendas, so for 37% of Trumpsters you have 37% of equal and opposite Sanders/AOC/Illan/Tayb crowd which indicates the decent crowd is 1 in 4. To put the 37% in perspective, Modi won 2 national elections in India with 31 and 34%.

[qesehmk]

1. I concur with you. Last year may be an isolation to the years before. They give the exact numbers in the September bulletins which is the last one of a FY.
2. The lawsuit from GS was nefarious and designed to loot money from EB immigrants. This is the statement from September 21 bulletin "The fiscal year 2021 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 262,288." The law mandates minimum usage of 140,000. So there was no wastage as claimed by GS. But just like many of guys in the past who claimed EB1C abuse, the lawyer managed to get 196 gullible souls to cough out $2025. People will still continue to cry EB1C abuse.
3. I was defining a base line expectation. HR 3012 came a decade back. Due to different learning experiences by IV that bill never passed even after many iterations. Even if the 100 % of backlogged people are against it, people in power do not care as you are not a vote bank.
4. While I agree Biden administration removed lot of hassles for non-immigrant visa holders, nothing favorable came to backlogged EB applicants. Majority of Americans are silent, complicit and downplay racist overtures. The hard left and hard right have identical agendas, so for 37% of Trumpsters you have 37% of equal and opposite Sanders/AOC/Illan/Tayb crowd which indicates the decent crowd is 1 in 4. To put the 37% in perspective, Modi won 2 national elections in India with 31 and 34%.

You can not say you agree that last year may be isolation and then immediately say they give exact numbers in September bulletins.

No they don't. Last year was exception. Usually the spillover adjustment is made 1-2-3-4 months late. Usually 4 months out the adjustment will be reflected.

I already said even if the lawsuit is ill executed doesn't mean people should stop trying.

Country cap removal is absolutely a worthy goal but IV created animosity where there was no need. Less said the better. They are now untouchables on the hill. If I were a democrat I wouldn't meet them ever. And I don't think any dem should meet them. IV simply has no understanding of immigration politics. Enough said. But yes country cap remains a completely worthy goal. And I do think legislative judicial and public opinion all three are needed. It's not one or the other.

Majority of people are busy with their lives. If they ignore racist overtures doesn't mean they are complicit. Honestly I also don't think every trump supporter is necessarily a racist. But every anti immigrant racist sure is a trump supporter. I will leave modi out of this

[AceMan]

You can not say you agree that last year may be isolation and then immediately say they give exact numbers in September bulletins.

No they don't. Last year was exception. Usually the spillover adjustment is made 1-2-3-4 months late. Usually 4 months out the adjustment will be reflected.

I already said even if the lawsuit is ill executed doesn't mean people should stop trying.

Country cap removal is absolutely a worthy goal but IV created animosity where there was no need. Less said the better. They are now untouchables on the hill. If I were a democrat I wouldn't meet them ever. And I don't think any dem should meet them. IV simply has no understanding of immigration politics. Enough said. But yes country cap remains a completely worthy goal. And I do think legislative judicial and public opinion all three are needed. It's not one or the other.

Majority of people are busy with their lives. If they ignore racist overtures doesn't mean they are complicit. Honestly I also don't think every trump supporter is necessarily a racist. But every anti immigrant racist sure is a trump supporter. I will leave modi out of this

I looked up the bulletins and said you were right. They put the yearly availability only on the September bulletin.

A leadership purge of IV with new blood might provide a new life for the organization. Easier said than done.

I used Modi only for the numerical % you put. I have absolutely no idea of what India is for the last decade since I have not gone there.

[qesehmk]

I looked up the bulletins and said you were right. They put the yearly availability only on the September bulletin.

A leadership purge of IV with new blood might provide a new life for the organization. Easier said than done.

I used Modi only for the numerical % you put. I have absolutely no idea of what India is for the last decade since I have not gone there.

I misunderstood. Sorry. Thanks for confirming that Sep bulletin usually only shows base visa cap.

I think - just like Jonty did with physicians - some people need to come together and form a better advocacy group.

As per Modi - I was simply trying to avoid his mention. I personally think he is a disaster and has set India back by a decade at least. But that's a digression. Yes your point about 35% support is quite valid.

[andhraguy]

Summary of Charlie's live video yesterday

-EB3-I No forward movement in FY 2022. He saw extreme surge of EB3 applications, Retrogression is expected.
-EB2-I may move slowly in coming months
-He already considered 290K visa including 150K spillover for FY 2022. That is not sufficient for FY 2020 pending applications.

Now only hope left on reconciliation bill

Gurus - Any insights ?

[Waiting4GC]

I misunderstood. Sorry. Thanks for confirming that Sep bulletin usually only shows base visa cap.

I think - just like Jonty did with physicians - some people need to come together and form a better advocacy group.

As per Modi - I was simply trying to avoid his mention. I personally think he is a disaster and has set India back by a decade at least. But that's a digression. Yes your point about 35% support is quite valid.

Good points. It seems there is some traction in media. At least a start. https://fox59.com/morning-news/local...-years-in-u-s/

[AceMan]

I misunderstood. Sorry. Thanks for confirming that Sep bulletin usually only shows base visa cap.

I think - just like Jonty did with physicians - some people need to come together and form a better advocacy group.

As per Modi - I was simply trying to avoid his mention. I personally think he is a disaster and has set India back by a decade at least. But that's a digression. Yes your point about 35% support is quite valid.

Special interest groups - the problem with them is they are niche and they generally tend to be very rich. All it takes is one anti-immigration reporter to spin it as an entitled request and the story fizzles out. Unlimited renewals, working spouse, income percentile among the top 10% of yearly earners, the odds against are very high. I believe the 7% rule is intentional and by design.

Modi is like a drug to people. You praise Modi, they are calm, you present any criticism , the fans are literally violent. When I say fans it is not just outsiders, close family and even people who were close friends in the past.

[LeoAugust]

Summary of Charlie's live video yesterday

-EB3-I No forward movement in FY 2022. He saw extreme surge of EB3 applications, Retrogression is expected.
-EB2-I may move slowly in coming months
-He already considered 290K visa including 150K spillover for FY 2022. That is not sufficient for FY 2020 pending applications.

Now only hope left on reconciliation bill

Gurus - Any insights ?

"That is not sufficient for FY 2020 pending applications."- This point I could not understand. I could not join the meeting but what I heard from others the ROW is high and EB3-I has surpassed and overflowing. How they are impacting is to found out? But if EB3-I has to be retrogressed if so then how long...?

[andhraguy]

"That is not sufficient for FY 2020 pending applications."- This point I could not understand. I could not join the meeting but what I heard from others the ROW is high and EB3-I has surpassed and overflowing. How they are impacting is to found out? But if EB3-I has to be retrogressed if so then how long...?

I meant the new 485 applications filed in FY 2021 are way more than the spill overs.

[LeoAugust]

"That is not sufficient for FY 2020 pending applications."- This point I could not understand. I could not join the meeting but what I heard from others the ROW is high and EB3-I has surpassed and overflowing. How they are impacting is to found out? But if EB3-I has to be retrogressed if so then how long...?

That's the reason why they have retrogressed from i-Jan-2015 to 1-Jan-2014. On that scenario... SO will be more than APPs. Also the number of i140 approved in SRc is just 10k and total application went to lin is 20k(i140). This is where it is intriguing...