Let's bring back the thread to original number crunching. Based on the numbers from the thread below, I came up with some predictions (for fun). I welcome experts to review and let me know the faults in my logic.
https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-...ward-movement/
I made a few assumptions for my predictions.
i) USCIS will utilize every single visa number (What am I even smoking, right? LOL!)
ii) The entire spillover of 34k will be applied to EB-I 2&3 because of not enough demand in EB-ROW. No vertical spillover.
iii) I have the combined column of EB2 and Eb3 in the link. I broke it down to individual categories in EB2 and EB3 based on 4:1 allocation.
iv) For years 2009 and 2010, I factored in 20% downgrade. For year 2011 a 30% cases downgrade and 2012, 2013 and 2014 a 40% downgrade.
Below are the numbers I get.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Eb2/Eb3 13348 30626 44572 44622 42880 51268
EB2 10678 24501 35658 35698 34304 41014
EB3 2670 6125 8914 8924 8576 10254
EB2(Adjusted) 8542.4 19600.8 24960.6 21418.8 20582.4 24608.4
EB3(Adjusted) 4805.6 11025.2 19611.4 23203.2 22297.6 26659.6
Based on this I see EB2 reaching April 2011 by end of this FY and EB3 reaching Dec 2011 by end of this FY.
Let the bashing begin!!