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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #4176
    Quote Originally Posted by dec2010 View Post
    How do i get to live agent ? is there any sequence of questions?
    while charting with emma just keep typing "technical difficulties" few times, you will be directly connected to live agent.

  2. #4177
    Quote Originally Posted by rocketfast View Post
    There are a few in the spreadsheet for EB2 July 2021 current.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=694834614
    @rocketfast , Do you see any spreadsheet for EB3 ? Could you share ?

  3. #4178
    Discussions about potential spillover killer law that is in the works (Rep. Grace Meng's amendment) are in a Bills, Rules & Politics thread.
    LPR Since 07MAY2021

  4. #4179
    My I-485 application was sent via Fedex to following address. Is it the correct address for Georgia resident?

    Attn: NFB AOS
    2501 S. State Hwy, 121 Business
    Suite 400
    Lewisville, TX 75067

    can we send the I-485 application directly to NBC instead of sending it to Texas Service Center where there is a huge backlog...

  5. #4180
    August VB 2021 out

    FAD
    EB 2 01 Jun 2011
    EB 3 01 Jul 2013

    DOF
    EB 2 01 Dec 2011
    EB 3 01 Feb 2014

    ---------------------
    July 2021
    EB 2 01 Jun 2011
    EB 3 01 Jan 2013
    Last edited by montyp80; 07-14-2021 at 04:14 PM.
    PD: 01/17/2014 || EB3I || 485/131/765 RD: 10/6/20 || BM: 2/18/21 || ER Submitted: 5/21/21 || ER Approved: 06/01/21 || EAD/AP Card Received: 6/12/21 || RFE (Medical) Received: 8/30/21 || RRFE: 9/9/21 || 485 Approval: Pending

  6. #4181
    Quote Originally Posted by montyp80 View Post
    August VB 2021 out

    FAD
    EB 2 01 Jun 2011
    EB 3 01 Jul 2013

    DOF
    EB 2 01 Dec 2011
    EB 3 01 Feb 2014

    ---------------------
    July 2021
    EB 2 01 Jun 2011
    EB 3 01 Jan 2013
    I don't understand what's the point in advancing these dates when USCIS can't process visa applications in time. Someone asked the same question to Charlie in last live-chat and he dodged it.
    NSC, EB2-I->EB3-I, PD:2/12, RD:11/4/20, ND:2/13/21, I-140(EB3):6/3/21, FP:7/16/21, I-693 (interfile): 7/22/21(delivered/no-ack), RFE(I-693):8/7/21, RFE-R: 8/10/21, EAD/AP: None, I-485 (Approved): 10/27/2021

  7. #4182
    Quote Originally Posted by LightAtEndOfTunnel View Post
    I don't understand what's the point in advancing these dates when USCIS can't process visa applications in time. Someone asked the same question to Charlie in last live-chat and he dodged it.
    Unfortunately it is all about USCIS being able to charge you and pay its employees and vendors from fees generated by YOU - the immigrant.

    USCIS is a user funded organization. They derive their budget from fees levied upon immigrants.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  8. #4183
    Sensei
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Unfortunately it is all about USCIS being able to charge you and pay its employees and vendors from fees generated by YOU - the immigrant.

    USCIS is a user funded organization. They derive their budget from fees levied upon immigrants.
    Well said! Advancing dates and not processing them is like rubbing salt on peoples wounds.

  9. #4184
    Quote Originally Posted by LightAtEndOfTunnel View Post
    I don't understand what's the point in advancing these dates when USCIS can't process visa applications in time. Someone asked the same question to Charlie in last live-chat and he dodged it.
    It's good for some people. Freezes their kids' age.

  10. #4185
    Sophomore
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    Nov 2016 EB3I chances for DOF in oct 2021 visa bulletin

    Any idea what would be my chances for Nov 2016 EB3I DOF for October 2021 visa bulletin.

    Can anybody share some information on this, in the recent interview with Charlie he said he would not have clear visibility on EB2I to EB3I downgrades, where he will only know the count for approved I-140s among the recent downgrades from NVC, and he rely on that approval rate. Does this mean, he would not have visibility on the demand for EB3I for FY2022 as of now only 10-15% of downgrades I-140 was only approved so far ( my assumption ) and he might move the EB3I filling dates forward until Dec 2016 or beyond that with huge SO coming as most of the I-140s are still pending for downgrade applicants and they are counted under EB2I until I-140 is approved. Thank you

  11. #4186
    Quote Originally Posted by may2011 View Post
    Well said! Advancing dates and not processing them is like rubbing salt on peoples wounds.
    It's life saver for people with aging out kids.

  12. #4187
    Quote Originally Posted by Transformer View Post
    It's life saver for people with aging out kids.
    Indeed this is so true for me. Child will be aging out in a less than a year and my FAD became current on July 1st. One year ago I would not have imagined where I?m today. No GC/EAD/AP yet but have been sleeping little better

  13. #4188

    To downgrade or not?

    Hello - My priority date is Oct 2011 in EB2 and am current in FAD EB3 since last month. Is there any benefit in downgrading now to apply in EB3? Dont expect much progress in Sept bulletin. Also, looking to avoid the mad rush in Oct. looking forward to your opinions. Thanks.

  14. #4189
    Quote Originally Posted by insane.yogi View Post
    Hello - My priority date is Oct 2011 in EB2 and am current in FAD EB3 since last month. Is there any benefit in downgrading now to apply in EB3? Dont expect much progress in Sept bulletin. Also, looking to avoid the mad rush in Oct. looking forward to your opinions. Thanks.
    If I were you, I will stay put given potential regulatory changes that might affect the FB SO as well as opportunities to get the vertical SO from EB1 into EB2 in the next fiscal. Also, demand destruction in EB2 post May 2011 through Oct 2011 has to be significant given the expected # of ppl. who would have downgraded to file last October. That's also a factor.

  15. #4190
    Sophomore
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    I am in a similar situation - PD of Aug-2012 and PERM process just started at current employer. EB3 will provide EAD, but I suspect there will be retrogression in a year or two, considering the massive jump and eventual opening up of consulates. EB2 is slow, but i am not sure if it will suffer retrogression(?). Would appreciate input about which EB queue (2 or 3) is better for candidates like me.
    Last edited by MidWestMaverick; 07-15-2021 at 08:25 AM.

  16. #4191
    Quote Originally Posted by MidWestMaverick View Post
    I am in a similar situation - PD of Aug-2012 and PERM process just started at current employer. EB3 will provide EAD, but I suspect there will be retrogression in a year or two, considering the massive jump and eventual opening up of consulates. EB2 is slow, but i am not sure if it will suffer retrogression(?). Would appreciate input about which EB queue (2 or 3) is better for candidates like me.
    IMO, EB3 will get you a faster EAD/AP but EB2 may get you the actual card sooner. So its a trade-off on what you want the most.

  17. #4192
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    Thanks @Zenzone! That is exactly the dilemma - maybe a bit more patience is needed on my part.

  18. #4193
    Quote Originally Posted by MidWestMaverick View Post
    Thanks @Zenzone! That is exactly the dilemma - maybe a bit more patience is needed on my part.
    You are welcome! I understand these are tough trade-offs and there are no right or wrong answers. Good Luck!

  19. #4194
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    Virginia
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    Looks like the ratio of NBC approvals vs other centers has increased substantially in Q3 (July) compared to previous quarter months.. Its a good sign, but any idea why?

  20. #4195
    Sensei
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    I was hoping to file 485 before Oct considering the previous months movements and the predictions provided all over. But, after looking at the Aug bulletin, looks like EB2 FAD will not move any further this fiscal and I will have to wait till Oct.

    I am trying to get a heads up on the medicals. Does anyone know if I can start the process with the civil surgeon now, but, the civil surgeon does not sign the form right away as I want to stay within 60 days of when i file the 485 in Oct ? Say, take the appointment now but the civil surgeon signs the form in Aug end ?
    EB2-India; PD: 4th Nov 2011; I-485 RD : 1 OCT 2021; I-485 ND : 15 OCT 2021; 485 Receipt # : MSC2290023***; I-485J ND : 5 NOV 2021; BM : 22 NOV 2021;

  21. #4196
    Yoda
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    Dec 2018
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    TX
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    323

    Red face

    Quote Originally Posted by insane.yogi View Post
    Hello - My priority date is Oct 2011 in EB2 and am current in FAD EB3 since last month. Is there any benefit in downgrading now to apply in EB3? Dont expect much progress in Sept bulletin. Also, looking to avoid the mad rush in Oct. looking forward to your opinions. Thanks.
    If I were in your shoes, I would downgrade. Or at least try and get my i140 approved in EB3 and will move to file AOS if VB is moving against me. There is an expectation that there will be massive retrogression in EB3 once the music stops. There will be a retrogression for sure. But IMO people within a year of May 15, 2011 (i.e. till May 15, 2012) should be in a safer zone. They may get their GC sooner or about the same time as EB2 folks (provided your i140 is approved at the earliest). There probably are very little downgrades till May 15, 2011. I will keep the numbers to less than 20% of the original EB2 filers. Plus those downgrades probably happened in Oct, Nov and Dec. No one with those dates is going to attempt to downgrade today. The I140 numbers in 2010 and 2011 are 6682 and 6929. Downgrades will mainly come into picture post May, 2011 and even then it's about 40% of the people who downgraded based on the available data points. As the PDs approach 2013 and 2014 we run into the situation where you may get EADs faster in EB3 but GCs sooner in EB2 if you downgraded today. If the new amendment does NOT pass, which is kind of my opinion at this time then there will be spillover from FB to EB in FY2023 as well. It may not be in the range of 150K, but I expect it to be in the range of 50-80K. For the spillover not to happen the entire Globe needs to go back to pre-pandemic levels by Dec 2021. This way even if a quarter is affected then DOS can cover the slack in the next 3 quarters. However if 2 quarters are affected (i.e. we do not get back to pre pandemic levels by March 2022) which is highly likely according to me, there is no way DOS can cover those numbers in the time remaining. Compare that to EB applications, for USCIS times to improve only US needs to go back to pre-pandemic levels. ROW does not affect AOS processing times.
    Last edited by vsivarama; 07-15-2021 at 10:11 AM.

  22. #4197
    Yoda
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    Dec 2018
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    TX
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    Quote Originally Posted by sling10 View Post
    I was hoping to file 485 before Oct considering the previous months movements and the predictions provided all over. But, after looking at the Aug bulletin, looks like EB2 FAD will not move any further this fiscal and I will have to wait till Oct.

    I am trying to get a heads up on the medicals. Does anyone know if I can start the process with the civil surgeon now, but, the civil surgeon does not sign the form right away as I want to stay within 60 days of when i file the 485 in Oct ? Say, take the appointment now but the civil surgeon signs the form in Aug end ?
    Why don't you take an appointment in September if you know you won't be able to file your AOS application in August? What do you gain by taking an appointment now?

  23. #4198
    It all depends on the surgeon, you can enquire with the office directly, once the surgeon signs the form you have to send it to USCIS within 60 days, else it become INVALID. I have heard some surgeon charges extra fee and sign the form with new dates too.
    =========================================
    EB2-I PD -> 19-Oct-2009 | EAD/AP since -> 30-Apr-2012 | GC -> 08-APR-2021

  24. #4199
    Sensei
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    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    Why don't you take an appointment in September if you know you won't be able to file your AOS application in August? What do you gain by taking an appointment now?
    I am just trying to avoid the mad rush there will be post the release of the October bulletin in September. I don't want to end up in a situation where in I do not get an appointment for 2-3 weeks. I want to try and submit the application in the 1st week of October.
    EB2-India; PD: 4th Nov 2011; I-485 RD : 1 OCT 2021; I-485 ND : 15 OCT 2021; 485 Receipt # : MSC2290023***; I-485J ND : 5 NOV 2021; BM : 22 NOV 2021;

  25. #4200
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    Quote Originally Posted by getsaby View Post
    It all depends on the surgeon, you can enquire with the office directly, once the surgeon signs the form you have to send it to USCIS within 60 days, else it become INVALID. I have heard some surgeon charges extra fee and sign the form with new dates too.
    Ok, will do that !
    EB2-India; PD: 4th Nov 2011; I-485 RD : 1 OCT 2021; I-485 ND : 15 OCT 2021; 485 Receipt # : MSC2290023***; I-485J ND : 5 NOV 2021; BM : 22 NOV 2021;

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