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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #4026
    Quote Originally Posted by rocketfast View Post
    For the first 2 quarters, the total trackitt tracker approval for I-485 was 439. Right now, it is 925. So 3rd quarter performance was comparatively better. The trackitt multiplication factor continues to follow last year's trend. If I had to guess, they would have approved around 100k by end of June.
    Trackitt data is heavily biased towards Indians compared to ROW so it's not a representative sample. I feel that Greencardly data is much more reliable.

    Analysis of Greencardly data from a user on Trackitt to predict approvals in Q3:

    During Q2, Greencardly average daily approval was about 1200. For 90 days that 1200 * 90 = 108,000. But out of that only about 20% is for EB (rest are family). That gave you the 18K usage during Q2 (the data that was released today). If you look at Greencardly trends for Q3 (Apr-Jun) the daily average was about 1600, which will give you approximately 25K EB GC during Q3. So entering Q4, only (45K + 25K) = 70K GC will be used. They'll have (262K-70K) = 192K EB GC to process in Q4
    I wonder how they processed 27K visas during the Q1 holiday quarter with Thanksgiving and Christmas New year etc. but only 18K visas in Q2. They even stopped issuing EADs and APs in last month of Q2 so approvals should have been even higher.
    Last edited by rsnake; 06-25-2021 at 09:53 PM.

  2. #4027
    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...s_FY2020Q4.pdf

    It was around 60k at the end of Q2 last year. Really slowed down to 12k in Q3 and then picked back up to 48k for an ~ even 120k at the end. I know Charlie mentioned higher utilization percentages so where is the missing data? From FY2021 sheet it seems like they approved 28k in the Q1 which may or may not include FY2020 visas that were approved in Oct 2020.

    Maybe someone can lookup FY2019 data to see what's a typical quarterly distribution is in a normal year without Covid or a huge spillover?

  3. #4028
    Quote Originally Posted by nbk1976 View Post
    USCIS doesn't determine visa numbers for countries or who should get how many; DOS does that. This attorney might be referring to some internal CIS operational rule (which could be challenged, if true).

    How does this explain many March and April 2010 PD folks getting approvals? I think this is not true.
    Assuming there is that rule in place, India would still get 7% of the overall large pool of 260K visas(after breakdown of 28% for EB2 and EB3 each) in earlier quarters rather than 7% of only 140K, so there would still be more approvals for Indian PDs than a normal year. That could explain those approvals.

  4. #4029
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    GC is for a future FT job promised by the company and accepted by you. So if you had moved to a new company availing AC21, you need to file a I-485 Supp J immediately. Any USCIS AO that looks at your case closely, send you a NOID or RFE. So it is better to proactively file I-485 J as you are FA current. In rare cases, you may get a GC without doing anything. In a bad situation, USCIS may claim that they approved the GC in error.

    Attorneys may advise you to wait for RFE. That will delay your GC approval by a few months.
    Thanks idliman for suggestion. Attorney did advise to wait for RFE and then file 485-J. They are big law firm and I don't have much influence on them. I insisted to file but they didn't oblige. Now I think there is no option left for me just to file a one-pager document.

  5. #4030
    Quote Originally Posted by rsnake View Post
    Trackitt data is heavily biased towards Indians compared to ROW so it's not a representative sample. I feel that Greencardly data is much more reliable.

    Analysis of Greencardly data from a user on Trackitt to predict approvals in Q3:



    I wonder how they processed 27K visas during the Q1 holiday quarter with Thanksgiving and Christmas New year etc. but only 18K visas in Q2. They even stopped issuing EADs and APs in last month of Q2 so approvals should have been even higher.
    In Q2 they were mostly busy tearing the envelopes, scanning documents and generating receipts for 200K applications.
    NSC, EB2-I->EB3-I, PD:2/12, RD:11/4/20, ND:2/13/21, I-140(EB3):6/3/21, FP:7/16/21, I-693 (interfile): 7/22/21(delivered/no-ack), RFE(I-693):8/7/21, RFE-R: 8/10/21, EAD/AP: None, I-485 (Approved): 10/27/2021

  6. #4031
    Quote Originally Posted by rsnake View Post
    Maybe someone can lookup FY2019 data to see what's a typical quarterly distribution is in a normal year without Covid or a huge spillover?
    Here is historic visa usage (source found it on a telegram group and I can't vouch for authenticity of this data).
    visa_usage.jpg
    NSC, EB2-I->EB3-I, PD:2/12, RD:11/4/20, ND:2/13/21, I-140(EB3):6/3/21, FP:7/16/21, I-693 (interfile): 7/22/21(delivered/no-ack), RFE(I-693):8/7/21, RFE-R: 8/10/21, EAD/AP: None, I-485 (Approved): 10/27/2021

  7. #4032
    Quote Originally Posted by LightAtEndOfTunnel View Post
    Here is historic visa usage (source found it on a telegram group and I can't vouch for authenticity of this data).
    Are the numbers in the unlabeled columns, C, H, I, L the EB1, 2, 3 breakdown or a breakdown of the first 3 quarters? This shows the totals but doesn't seem to show the quarterly distribution of approvals for EB.
    Last edited by rsnake; 06-26-2021 at 07:53 AM.

  8. #4033
    Interesting quote from Telegram

    The American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act (AC21) removed the per-country limit in any calendar quarter in which overall applicant demand for Employment-based visa numbers is less than the total of such numbers available.

    https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...ation%20of.pdf
    Also from the owner of a Chinese telegram group saying that it's BS to say USCIS has to wait till last quarter to give country based spillover visas:

    I am the group master of the largrst Chinese greencard group, which many of your data plots here came from

    Nonsense at all.
    Please get to understand what happened

    ONLY if the ROW people are NOT current in the 1st or 2nd quarter, the Indian/Chinese have to wait.

    This means their requirements cannot been meet, then indian/Chinese have to wait until the last quarter to see if there is SO left

    This year the ROW are always CURRENT, and the 1st quarter distributed 40% of quarterly quota, 2nd quarter even worse, only send out 26% of the 66250 quarterly quota.

    Please remember all indian meet FAD schedule should get greencard.

    Now all or nearly all the SO will be wasted.

    Finally, please remember, the USCIS has physical limit of sending greencards.
    The historical high is 55000.
    NO matter what happens, there is no possibility to send out 185000 EB greencards

  9. #4034
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    Quote Originally Posted by rsnake View Post
    Interesting quote from Telegram



    Also from the owner of a Chinese telegram group saying that it's BS to say USCIS has to wait till last quarter to give country based spillover visas:
    I was wondering last Nov/Dec about the USCIS processing abilities and the reality appears to be most of this SpillOver 262K GC is going down the kitchen sink..this is beyond words..!!
    SRC; EB2 -> EB3; I-140 approved ; PD 06/2013; RD 11/05/2020; BM -- Sep '2021; EAD 03/22; I-485 Xferr NBC -- 04/25

  10. #4035
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    Quote Originally Posted by vedu View Post
    Congratulations on your PERM approval. My recommendation is to send the complete package (I140+I485+I765+I131+Medicals+I485J if necessary). And I also recommend filing I 140 in premium. That is the fastest way to get your green card approved. You can also get AC21 protection as soon as you can, and once this package reaches USCIS, you can just relax. There will be no more documentation after that.

    As much as I hate lawyers, I am not sure whether you should do it yourself or involve your lawyer. If you are fully confident of your ability to complete all these forms accurately, then go do it yourself. The most important benefit of you doing it yourself is you will be in complete control of your destiny. USCIS will directly communicate with you and you can do it without wasting any time in the process. But if you are not confident of your ability to manage this paperwork, then go with the lawyer. Don't take chances. I am sure his paralegal will make some mistakes as they always do...but hey..at least the lawyer has a degree in law!

    I will tell you my experience with lawyer vs no lawyer. All my H1B's were done through the lawyer sponsored by my employer, and everytime it was pain to get them to act fast on my case. They would waste so much time, make simple mistakes in the paperwork, wait until very late (not deliberately) to file my application. On the other hand, when it came to EAD/AP combo card, I used to do everything myself, without a single mistake, for free, and exactly six months before my current EAD/AP was about to expire. It was such a pleasure and hassle-free experience because I was in full control of my destiny!

    All the best for your next step!
    Thank you Vedu for prompt reply. What are your views on EB2 Vs EB3?

    I had a "strategic planning" call with the lawyer yesterday and he gave a timeline of end of July - mid Aug to file everything, this is one of the main reason I dislike them, what exactly they need this time for. Just like you I have been applying my spouses EAD (Both under G4 and H4 visas) I never had any problems.

    Thanks for I485J reminder, I didn't think it was needed but I guess, doesn't hurt to add it.

    For the edification of others, I am in Chicagoland, around 4 months back, I got the vaccinations at my primary care, I also asked him to do the TB and STDs tests, he asked me lot of questions and did the HIV too , my USCIS approved civil surgeon ($400/person) will use those tests results, for the vaccines, he will do an antibodies test.

    I did all this earlier anticipating a problem, not to save money, because that's the story of my life, if there any possibility of stumbling block in my GC path, I would hit it. Lo and behold, I was tested positive for TB in 'quantiferon gold' test, doctor did a chest X-ray and found no evidence of TB, repeated the test still positive, but he had to report the positive test to local health department. Who then called me and kind of forced me to take medication for TB. 4 months later, I did another test and that was negative. Local health department will issue a letter saying I was "cured", I may not need it, but good to have it and not need it than the other way around.

    I will report on progress later, It might not help anyone but at least people will know they are not the only one suffering .

  11. #4036
    Hi Gurus and Experts,

    Need some advice or your thoughts on my situation

    My PD is Dec 2,2011 (EB2 approved) and last year October i applied for 485 with EB2-EB3 downgrade .
    My EB3-140 haven't been approved till date and i tried PP and got rejected (for my colleague ,same PD ,same company - all same , it was accepted and approved) - my bad luck as always

    Wondering if FAD under EB2 get current and EB3-140 is still pending , then can i file for a fresh 485 with EB2-140 ? Is this legal/allowed to have multiple 485s or do you see any issues with this ?

    Regards,
    Shovit
    Last edited by rohanvus; 06-26-2021 at 08:56 AM.

  12. #4037
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    Quote Originally Posted by rohanvus View Post
    Hi Gurus and Experts,

    Need some advice or your thoughts on my situation

    My PD is Dec 2,2011 (EB2 approved) and last year October i applied for 485 with EB2-EB3 downgrade .
    My EB3-140 haven't been approved till date and i tried PP and got rejected (for my colleague ,same PD ,same company - all same , it was accepted and approved) - my bad luck as always

    Wondering if FAD under EB2 get current and EB3-140 is still pending , then can i file for a fresh 485 with EB2-140 ? Is this legal/allowed to have multiple 485s or do you see any issues with this ?

    Regards,
    Shovit
    IMHO you best bet is I-140 premium, having 2 I-485 is possible but you will have to cancel one at some point of time. Also adding a new 485 will put you to back of the line, in what ever queue USCIS uses to process 485 applications. Your AC-21 protection is based on AOS app waiting for more than 180 days, I am not sure that status is also 'ported' or gets reset when older one is revoked.

    You have already complicated the application by downgrading (no judgment do whatever you can to get the GC fast. AC-21 protection is the next best thing), further jumping around might delay and not speed up the process.

    Legally it is allowed. but I would not recommend it.

  13. #4038
    Quote Originally Posted by 3nov10 View Post
    IMHO you best bet is I-140 premium, having 2 I-485 is possible but you will have to cancel one at some point of time. Also adding a new 485 will put you to back of the line, in what ever queue USCIS uses to process 485 applications. Your AC-21 protection is based on AOS app waiting for more than 180 days, I am not sure that status is also 'ported' or gets reset when older one is revoked.

    You have already complicated the application by downgrading (no judgment do whatever you can to get the GC fast. AC-21 protection is the next best thing), further jumping around might delay and not speed up the process.

    Legally it is allowed. but I would not recommend it.
    Thanks for your reply .

    Only if EB3-140 gets approved before EB2 FAD becoming current , but considering the inconsistency at USCIS with accepting PP , i am not hopeful . Not sure if this will take 1 year more for just approving I-140 .

    You are right about AC21 protection and thats what i want soon .GC can wait .

    You said i have already complicated my case by downgrading ? Can you pls elaborate on the complication aspect ?
    Last edited by rohanvus; 06-26-2021 at 10:09 AM.

  14. #4039
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    Quote Originally Posted by rohanvus View Post
    Thanks for your reply .

    Only if EB3-140 gets approved before EB2 FAD becoming current , but considering the inconsistency at USCIS with accepting PP , i am not hopeful . Not sure if this will take 1 year more for just approving I-140 .

    You are right about AC21 protection and thats what i want soon .GC can wait .

    You said i have already complicated my case by downgrading ? Can you pls elaborate on the complication aspect ?
    I should use better words, complicate doesn't convey what I want to say correctly. God knows how USCIS works but anecdotal evidence suggests,
    they will bring you original perm from some storage space to whatever office your downgrade I-140 app is being processed and that is going to take lot of time, and only after they have it, they will start the PP clock or just reject the PP till then. This just adds time, and in some cases they move the 485 to FO separately, all of these should be one place, in front of same officer for the final decision. So lots of processes in parallel, just adds to your time line.

    Think if it as you are at DMV and you keep on changing your ID document and they keep on sending you to the first window to get them to check. Everything should line up perfectly in for the officer to request a visa.

  15. #4040
    Quote Originally Posted by 3nov10 View Post
    I should use better words, complicate doesn't convey what I want to say correctly. God knows how USCIS works but anecdotal evidence suggests,
    they will bring you original perm from some storage space to whatever office your downgrade I-140 app is being processed and that is going to take lot of time, and only after they have it, they will start the PP clock or just reject the PP till then. This just adds time, and in some cases they move the 485 to FO separately, all of these should be one place, in front of same officer for the final decision. So lots of processes in parallel, just adds to your time line.

    Think if it as you are at DMV and you keep on changing your ID document and they keep on sending you to the first window to get them to check. Everything should line up perfectly in for the officer to request a visa.
    Thanks for this explanation - makes sense

    I will stay put in EB3 and hope they approve 140 in few months .

    Btw ,PP was filed by lawyer for all of my colleagues together and packages were delivered to TSC on June 10 for all us , but everyone else got accepted and approved and for me there has been no update as to what went wrong . Even lawyer was puzzled , they are hoping to receive rejection response ( which they haven?t till date ) . In nutshell, just my case being singled out made me gloomy and anxious (fear of being left alone ) and having no answer even why they rejected my case ,got me thinking on fresh 485 with EB2
    Last edited by rohanvus; 06-26-2021 at 11:48 AM.

  16. #4041
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    Quote Originally Posted by rohanvus View Post
    Thanks for this explanation - makes sense

    I will stay put in EB3 and hope they approve 140 in few months .

    Btw ,PP was filed by lawyer for all of my colleagues together and packages were delivered to TSC on June 10 for all us , but everyone else got accepted and approved and for me there has been no update as to what went wrong . Even lawyer was puzzled , they are hoping to receive rejection response ( which they haven?t till date ) . In nutshell, just my case being singled out made me gloomy and anxious (fear of being left alone ) and having no answer even why they rejected my case ,got me thinking on fresh 485 with EB2
    Who knows what it is. It could be you app is in a special bunker and the guy with the key went on a vacation and fractured his leg. If this was my app this is exactly what will happen 😅
    But hang on, if they have not rejected, we have good reason to believe they are looking for it, once they find it, your will also be approved.
    Best of luck.

  17. #4042
    Quote Originally Posted by 3nov10 View Post
    Thank you Vedu for prompt reply. What are your views on EB2 Vs EB3?

    I had a "strategic planning" call with the lawyer yesterday and he gave a timeline of end of July - mid Aug to file everything, this is one of the main reason I dislike them, what exactly they need this time for. Just like you I have been applying my spouses EAD (Both under G4 and H4 visas) I never had any problems.

    Thanks for I485J reminder, I didn't think it was needed but I guess, doesn't hurt to add it.

    For the edification of others, I am in Chicagoland, around 4 months back, I got the vaccinations at my primary care, I also asked him to do the TB and STDs tests, he asked me lot of questions and did the HIV too , my USCIS approved civil surgeon ($400/person) will use those tests results, for the vaccines, he will do an antibodies test.

    I did all this earlier anticipating a problem, not to save money, because that's the story of my life, if there any possibility of stumbling block in my GC path, I would hit it. Lo and behold, I was tested positive for TB in 'quantiferon gold' test, doctor did a chest X-ray and found no evidence of TB, repeated the test still positive, but he had to report the positive test to local health department. Who then called me and kind of forced me to take medication for TB. 4 months later, I did another test and that was negative. Local health department will issue a letter saying I was "cured", I may not need it, but good to have it and not need it than the other way around.

    I will report on progress later, It might not help anyone but at least people will know they are not the only one suffering .
    Looks like your lawyer is going to waste one precious month. As you already know, you yourself can complete those forms in two days, but then your employer may not sign them without a lawyer.

    As for EB2 Vs. EB3, it doesn't matter for you. Your dates are current under both the categories, and I am very confident that they are not going to retrogress. So, choose the simplest path that requires least amount of efforts and time for you as well as for USCIS. Don't unnecessarily complicate things.

  18. #4043
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    Quote Originally Posted by vedu View Post
    Looks like your lawyer is going to waste one precious month. As you already know, you yourself can complete those forms in two days, but then your employer may not sign them without a lawyer.

    As for EB2 Vs. EB3, it doesn't matter for you. Your dates are current under both the categories, and I am very confident that they are not going to retrogress. So, choose the simplest path that requires least amount of efforts and time for you as well as for USCIS. Don't unnecessarily complicate things.
    Yes, this is going to be a monumental waste of time. My previous I-140 was in EB2, so I think, I will keep it that why.

    I was able to talk to a colleague (doesn't have the same problem as Indians he is from Nepal), he told me HR follows whatever the lawyer tells them, his app was filed few months back and lawyer advised to not to send medicals!!! and wait for RFE, poor guy is now stuck waiting.
    Apparently the HR gave him, my money, my rules attitude.

    Come Monday I will push hard to get things done quickly.

    Thanks for the help.

  19. #4044
    These are the pace of GC approvals from USCIS per quarter. Totals don't add up close to 140K because consulate GCs given by DoS overseas are not counted.


    2021: 27.5K, 17.9K
    2020: 41.8K, 18.3K, 12.8K, 48.8K (total 121.9K)
    2019: 33.2K, 27.5K, 30.4K, 13.7K (total 105K)
    2018: 30.4K, 28.3K, 34.5K, 16K (total 109K)

    Ignoring 2020 which was affected by Covid shutdowns, the normal pace of approvals in Q2 when cap is 140K is 27K. And now when cap is 260K the approvals are only 18K. The first quarter this year is bad compared to earlier years too. Also last quarter is traditionally the worst quarter, I am guessing it's because the cap is close or being reached.

    Anyway, USCIS will have to give out 108K GCs each in Q3 and Q4 to reach this years cap. Their previous record in a quarter was 55K.
    Last edited by rsnake; 06-27-2021 at 11:05 AM.

  20. #4045
    Quote Originally Posted by rohanvus View Post
    Thanks for this explanation - makes sense

    I will stay put in EB3 and hope they approve 140 in few months .

    Btw ,PP was filed by lawyer for all of my colleagues together and packages were delivered to TSC on June 10 for all us , but everyone else got accepted and approved and for me there has been no update as to what went wrong . Even lawyer was puzzled , they are hoping to receive rejection response ( which they haven?t till date ) . In nutshell, just my case being singled out made me gloomy and anxious (fear of being left alone ) and having no answer even why they rejected my case ,got me thinking on fresh 485 with EB2
    I am in the same bucket. 2 months back we filed a PP for an Oct downgrade 140. No response for 10 weeks. Enquiry made to the premium processing department (supposed to get an answer in 72 hours) also went unanswered. My friends have been getting either approval or rejection with "We have initiated the request for the related file (containing the certified PERM)". Usually, the second request filed after 30 days goes through.

    You and I and probably more people are in a special queue with unanswered PP prayers Not much to do other than wait or potentially send another PP on top of the previous unanswered but very out-of-regular-processing-time PP.
    Category: EB2 India
    EB2 Priority Date: 07/17/2011
    Processing Center: NSC
    EB2-EB3 Downgrade: 10/29/2020
    Receipt Notice: 02/12/2021
    Biometrics Date: 05/27/2021
    EB3 I-140 PP filed - 04/20/2021, 06/23/2021
    EB3 I-140 Approval Date: 07/08/2021
    I-693 RFE: 08/04/2021
    RFER: 08/11/2021
    EAD/AP - Awaited
    GC - 08/30(New Card ordered.)

  21. #4046
    Quote Originally Posted by sstest View Post
    I am in the same bucket. 2 months back we filed a PP for an Oct downgrade 140. No response for 10 weeks. Enquiry made to the premium processing department (supposed to get an answer in 72 hours) also went unanswered. My friends have been getting either approval or rejection with "We have initiated the request for the related file (containing the certified PERM)". Usually, the second request filed after 30 days goes through.

    You and I and probably more people are in a special queue with unanswered PP prayers Not much to do other than wait or potentially send another PP on top of the previous unanswered but very out-of-regular-processing-time PP.
    Is yours TSC too ? May i ask what is your PD ?

  22. #4047
    Folks - Quick question. When we respond to the medical RFE (imminent for me) do you recommend -

    1) Attaching the sealed envelope from the civil surgeon with the actual RFE request and just mailing them back to the USCIS address mentioned in the RFE or Do I need to add a cover letter in addition to that packet;
    2) My wife and I got an RFE each and would it be okay to send the response as just one FEDEX packet instead of two.

    Please share your experiences.

  23. #4048
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    TravelGov will be hosting "Chats with Charlie" on our YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/user/TravelGov) to discuss information provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin. This month's chat is scheduled to take place on June 28, 2021 at 1:00 p.m. EST to discuss the July Visa Bulletin. Questions can be emailed to VisaBulletin@state.gov ahead of the event with "Chat with Charlie Question" in the subject line. Questions will also be taken via the YouTube Live Chat and will be answered in real-time. The event is intended to address issues of general interest related to the content of the Visa Bulletin, and no policy, case, or post specific questions will be accepted.

  24. #4049
    Quote Originally Posted by txsguy View Post
    TravelGov will be hosting "Chats with Charlie" on our YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/user/TravelGov) to discuss information provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin. This month's chat is scheduled to take place on June 28, 2021 at 1:00 p.m. EST to discuss the July Visa Bulletin. Questions can be emailed to VisaBulletin@state.gov ahead of the event with "Chat with Charlie Question" in the subject line. Questions will also be taken via the YouTube Live Chat and will be answered in real-time. The event is intended to address issues of general interest related to the content of the Visa Bulletin, and no policy, case, or post specific questions will be accepted.
    Going to be another re-schedule it seems.

    Looks like Charlie is trying to avoid facing upset people this month. lol
    PD: 01/17/2014 || EB3I || 485/131/765 RD: 10/6/20 || BM: 2/18/21 || ER Submitted: 5/21/21 || ER Approved: 06/01/21 || EAD/AP Card Received: 6/12/21 || RFE (Medical) Received: 8/30/21 || RRFE: 9/9/21 || 485 Approval: Pending

  25. #4050
    Quote Originally Posted by montyp80 View Post
    Going to be another re-schedule it seems.

    Looks like Charlie is trying to avoid facing upset people this month. lol
    It's going on here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxk-gVs2YuU
    GC Approved 7/29/2021

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