EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[rohanvus]

I would say go with the downgrade without wasting a second.
It won’t harm your existing EB2 approval, however downgrading would give you more path open to receive green card faster

I listened to Spec and Q 3 years ago now I have both eb2 and eb3

Please take advantage of existing rules and be at peace

Hope this helps

Hey texas,

I am in same situation . However confused about below aspects and havent been able to get a clear answer

a) Incase EB3 I-140 petition gets denied , will that harm existing I-140 petition (under EB2)?
b) In future if EB2 advances then will it be possible to switch back to EB2 queue easily ? Does one have to be on H1 to make that switch or can we switch back to EB2 queue while on EAD also ?

You have lived this situation , so hearing from you will be very helpful

Please let me know

[YTeleven]

My PD is EB2-I May 23,2011...........my company has agreed to downgrade.......I know its a personal call but wanted to check with the experts in this forum whether or not I should downgrade to EB3 or wait in the EB2 queue..........

Just file it before 30th.. if you need motivation check my last 7 year posts.. EB2 will never catch up with EB3 in next 10 years.

[YTeleven]

I have a complicated question.

My PD is EB2 May 20, 2011. I missed out by 5 days in EB2 filing dates.

Now, I have 2 choices.

1. Keep the downgrade application ready which I already have and is with the attorney. Wait for November visa bulletin and see if the EB2 filing dates advance beyond May 20, 2011 which is my PD and if USCIS honors those dates. If it happens, then only file EB2 I-485 starting November 1 and cancel the plan for downgrading from EB2-EB3.

or

2. Go ahead and file EB2-EB3 downgrade application before October 31 regardless of what happens in November visa bulletin. If filing dates for EB2 advance beyond May 20, 2011 which is my priority date and if USCIS honors those dates, then go ahead and file I-485 in EB2 also starting November 1. In this situation, I will have an EB2 I-485 filed along with simultaneous processing of EB2-EB3 downgrade application as well.

I am leaning more towards option 2, because

If EB3 final action dates advance over next 1 year and if by that time my EB3 I-140 is approved on downgrade application, then I can actually get a green card.

If I don't downgrade right now and only file EB2 I-485 instead (per option 1) and if EB2 final action dates don't advance much but if EB3 final action dates advance and my PD becomes current over next year, I can downgrade at that time filing concurrently, however the worry is that EB3 I-140 may take few months for approval and by that time, if EB3 final action dates retrogress then I will not be able to get green card.

The other thing I was thinking was that if I follow Option 2, then I am even more safe in case my EB2-EB3 downgrade application is rejected. If that happens, I would not get EAD/AP on downgrade but since have already filed I-485 under EB2 as well so I can get EAD and AP with EB2 I-485 application.

I understand that only one I-485 application will actually get approved but I was thinking that instead of requesting USCIS to interfile I-485 which can take months, why not file I-485 in both EB2 and EB2-EB3 downgrade if allowed by PD being current in filing dates and in that way, whichever category is current for my PD, USCIS can approve my I-485 and discard the other I-485.

In a nutshell, I am thinking of downgrading EB2-EB3 application this month before October 31 and also filing EB2 I-485 whenever my EB2 filing date gets current (November or December visa bulletin). The only reason I am thinking of doing that is because I want to take advantage of whichever category the final action dates get current for my PD.

If EB3 final action dates advance beyond May 20, 2011 by end of next FY and if my EB3 I-140 is approved by that time, then I get a green card in EB3.

If EB2 final action dates advance beyond May 20, 2011 by end of next FY then I can get a green card in EB2.

The only additional expense I see is lawyer fees and filing fees to file another I-485 in EB2 apart from the money I am gonna spend on downgrading.

Does that make sense?

Need the expert opinion here.

You're playing too safe game which may delay your GC.. I can easily predict that EB2 FD will be there for another 6 months but it's hard to predict a 5 more days of advance movement in next 6 months.. so it is wise to file 485 along with eb3 downgrade by 30th..

[texas_]

Hey texas,

I am in same situation . However confused about below aspects and havent been able to get a clear answer

a) Incase EB3 I-140 petition gets denied , will that harm existing I-140 petition (under EB2)?
b) In future if EB2 advances then will it be possible to switch back to EB2 queue easily ? Does one have to be on H1 to make that switch or can we switch back to EB2 queue while on EAD also ?

You have lived this situation , so hearing from you will be very helpful

Please let me know

I’m not an attorney so request you to kindly contact your attorney
I advise you to start downgrade process and file 485 concurrently while you have 20 more days

[inspired_p]

Question about Medicals
My lawyer is adamant saying no need to file I-485 with medicals. We should wait for the RFE. I really feel my PD is OCT 2010 is expected to be current in EB3-I for sure, so the medicals may not be a waste of money.
Other than the medicals expiring and loss of money, is there any reason why it makes sense not to file with medicals that I do not know.

[gcconnect]

Hey texas,

I am in same situation . However confused about below aspects and havent been able to get a clear answer

a) Incase EB3 I-140 petition gets denied , will that harm existing I-140 petition (under EB2)?
b) In future if EB2 advances then will it be possible to switch back to EB2 queue easily ? Does one have to be on H1 to make that switch or can we switch back to EB2 queue while on EAD also ?

You have lived this situation , so hearing from you will be very helpful

Please let me know

Even i have same Questions, there is info below, but could not get clear answer. Gurus can some one let us know

https://www.murthy.com/2013/07/26/in...e-part-1-of-2/

[rohanvus]

You're playing too safe game which may delay your GC.. I can easily predict that EB2 FD will be there for another 6 months but it's hard to predict a 5 more days of advance movement in next 6 months.. so it is wise to file 485 along with eb3 downgrade by 30th..

YT , how about PD with DEC 2,2011 in EB2 ? Even this date will not see light of the day say in 3 years from now ?

Yes EB3 is way ahead in terms filing date right now (but this will likely retrogress) but FAD dates may see some see-saw effect w.r.t to EB2 .
EB2 can get additional vertical spillover unlike EB3 which gets only horizontal spillover from ROW, provided this time USCIS does not waste the additional visas from FB category . In such case I see EB2 and EB3 kinda coming to some kind of equilibrium in couple of years

[YTeleven]

YT , how about PD with DEC 2,2011 in EB2 ? Even this date will not see light of the day say in 3 years from now ?

Yes EB3 is way ahead in terms filing date right now (but this will likely retrogress) but FAD dates may see some see-saw effect w.r.t to EB2 .
EB2 can get additional vertical spillover unlike EB3 which gets only horizontal spillover from ROW, provided this time USCIS does not waste the additional visas from FB category . In such case I see EB2 and EB3 kinda coming to some kind of equilibrium in couple of years

If I just consider numbers I would predict that EB India should get 150k this year and 100k next year if there are zero visa wastage. That will comfortably move the EB2I dates to 2012 by next year. but here lot of other factors making uncertainty.. like court stay on fee hikes, uscis processing capacity, current political environment

[vsivarama]

Hey texas,

I am in same situation . However confused about below aspects and havent been able to get a clear answer

a) Incase EB3 I-140 petition gets denied , will that harm existing I-140 petition (under EB2)?
b) In future if EB2 advances then will it be possible to switch back to EB2 queue easily ? Does one have to be on H1 to make that switch or can we switch back to EB2 queue while on EAD also ?

You have lived this situation , so hearing from you will be very helpful

Please let me know

a) It depends on the denial. If the cause of denial somehow puts into doubt the original perm or if there is a reason to believe a fraud has been committed then EB2 i140 may be revoked as well. Else there is no impact of EB3 i140 being denied on EB2 i140.
b) One has to be on H1 to make the switch back to EB2. My lawyer as he put it one needs to be on an underlying immigrant visa (H1, L1) to be able to move back to EB2 queue. The moment you switch to EAD, you are basically saying that you will be using the 485 - AOS filed to pursue your GC.

[iamdeb]

Hi All,

As you know recently USCIS has amend the drop box eligibility to 24 months. My H1B visa on passport expired on Mar 23,2000. As per usual drop box rules I am eligible for it till Mar 23,2021. With the drop box eligibility being extended to 24 months does it mean that I will be eligible for drop box till Mar 23,2022.

Thanks!

[suninphx]

If I just consider numbers I would predict that EB India should get 150k this year and 100k next year if there are zero visa wastage. That will comfortably move the EB2I dates to 2012 by next year. but here lot of other factors making uncertainty.. like court stay on fee hikes, uscis processing capacity, current political environment

I know it's early, but I don't see a case where visas are NOT wasted. I don't see a flurry of approvals either on trackitt or any where else. So much for processing power. Plus lots and lots of people are downporting (and rightfully so) is going reduce processing power even more. Surely hoping for a much better outcome though.

[JoinedToAsk]

Experts,

My priority date is Nov 2010 EB2I. I am hearing mixed messages from friends and several lawyers that I should continue to file in EB2I. I thought of posting here what I have gathered so far. I'd appreciate honest guidance.

Reasons for staying with EB2I in Oct/Nov 2020:

1. Let's assume that I have filed in EB2I in Oct/Nov 2020, and EB3I FAD becomes current in, say, Jan 2021. Now, if I downgrade to EB3I in Jan 2021, USCIS will not pick my EB3I in Jan 2021 although EB3I is current because I will not have an approved I-140. In other words, I'd be downgrading the month in which EB3I FAD becomes current. So, USCIS will first process those EB3I applications that will have an approved I-140 rather than mine. As a result, my application might be delayed by several months from Jan 2021.

2. I-140 in EB3I can be upgraded to premium no less than 60 days after filing downgrade application. Even then, it's at the discretion of USCIS to convert I-140 from regular processing to premium processing. So, if USCIS processes my application in regular processing (i.e. premium processing is denied), there could be a waiting period of 5-6 months for I-140 approval. Moreover, in this time, EB2I FAD might cross Nov 2010. So, I am better off staying in EB2I.

3. EB2I will get more spillover because EB1 > EB2 > EB3 in terms of priority. So, EB2I will progress faster than EB3I.

4. Sometimes downgrade/interfiling applications get lost without any updates from USCIS for several months. People go to congressmen/women for status updates, and still nothing happens. So, stay with EB2I.


Reasons for downgrading from EB2I to EB3I in Oct/Nov 2020:

1. I-140 data shows less inventory for EB3I than for EB2I in 2009/10, which implies relatively faster movement for EB3I than EB2I for Nov 2010 PD.

2. After downgrading and with approved I140 in EB3I, I will have an option to file through EB2I or EB3I. I will thus be covered either way.

3. For spillover, the priority of EB1 > EB2 > EB3 isn't right. FB spillovers are allocated equally to EB2 and EB3. This point is counter to #3 in EB2I section above.

4. After downgrading to EB3I, if EB2I moves faster than EB2I, I may not be able to upgrade to EB2I since USCIS may restrict such movement in future to make EB2I faster than EB3I.

I have gathered above data after throwing several hundred dollars on consultation. I'm very frustrated because I feel that I am getting incorrect or partially correct information. I'd appreciate if someone can give me an honest advice.

[newyorker123]

I have an older EB2 I140 from late 2012, and am joining a company now. Will need to restart PERM process. I am confused whether to start it in EB2 or EB3. Any advice ? Overall if EB3 is always going to be ahead of EB2, does it make more sense to start using EB3 ?

[YTeleven]

I have an older EB2 I140 from late 2012, and am joining a company now. Will need to restart PERM process. I am confused whether to start it in EB2 or EB3. Any advice ? Overall if EB3 is always going to be ahead of EB2, does it make more sense to start using EB3 ?

For new perm, file 2 i140s one in EB2 another one in EB3..otherwise just EB3..

[YTeleven]

Still I prefer EB3 downgrading..key here is I140 processing power.. uscis has processed significantly higher number of i140s compared to 10 years ago..now the I140 demand reduced to 2009 levels so increase in downgrades will compansate that reduced demand..also you mentioned discretion of USCIS..if their target is not to waste visas then they have to process these downgrades on priority..

[vsivarama]

I have an older EB2 I140 from late 2012, and am joining a company now. Will need to restart PERM process. I am confused whether to start it in EB2 or EB3. Any advice ? Overall if EB3 is always going to be ahead of EB2, does it make more sense to start using EB3 ?

As far as I know you do not need to determine EB2 or EB3 at the time of perm filing. Just make sure that the perm meets the minimum standards for EB2. At the time of filing i-140 which is still months away in your case you can pick either EB2 or EB3 to file for i-140. You will have a more clear picture at that time.

[vsivarama]

@JoinedToAsk
FB Spillovers are allocated equally to EB1/EB2/EB3. But EB2 might have higher spillover because EB2-ROW usage has been low as per previous years trends and EB2 is Likely to get vertical spillover from EB1 as there will be leftover numbers even if EB1 is made current for the year. So basically it boils down to this. There are more folks in EB2 queue but EB2 will also have higher spillover compared to EB3 for the reasons mentioned above. EB3 has less people in the queue and less spillover compared to EB2. Plus additional i-140 processing is required for you. End of the day it could go either way for you. It's up to you to decide how far you are willing to go for the possibility of getting a GC maybe a few months earlier at best? I am saying this based on the assumption that USCIS does NOT intend to waste visas. If their intention is to waste visas then maybe you are better off in EB3. I do not think anyone can predict what route USCIS will adopt until next couple of months.

[seepz123]

Hello Gurus, I need some advice regarding a job move that I am having to make. My priority date is in March 2010, and I have been on a H1-B (since 2005), and I am planning to take up a new job now as my employment with the current employer (whom I have been with since 2008) is a bit shaky due to external uncertainties. As I plan to make use of my EAD for the new employment, are there any documents that I need to submit to USCIS while making this move?

[longwaitgigu]

Question about Medicals
My lawyer is adamant saying no need to file I-485 with medicals. We should wait for the RFE. I really feel my PD is OCT 2010 is expected to be current in EB3-I for sure, so the medicals may not be a waste of money.
Other than the medicals expiring and loss of money, is there any reason why it makes sense not to file with medicals that I do not know.

Can you please tell me or anyone
How may i944 form is needed - is one per family enough- that's what our lawyer send
We both - husband and wife r filing i485 and lawyer said only primary applicant has to file i944
Is it true?

[longwaitgigu]

My lawyer now said
With oct 2010 eb3 PD
Not to do medicals
This is not what he said prior

[sanjeevchhibber]

I have EB2I with priority date of 10th August 2011, my perm. was filed when I was Analyst now I am Director in the same dept.. (natural progression), my employer is ready to downgrade, I ma keeping all my documents ready now my dilemma is choose which option

Option 1) Monitor November visa bulletin, if EB2I filing date moves by 3 months & reach my date then just file I485 and in the future if the final action dates for EB3 reach August 2011 before EB2 then at that time do a downgrade to EB3/I485

Option 2) Should I downgrade to EB3 now and file I140/485 together and assume that EB3 will give GC faster since I140 Inventory in EB3 in 2010/2011 is very low

My lawyer is saying there is some risk in my case because My Title is Changed not sure why this matter because job duties are same, will that risk be more with EB2 or With downgrading to EB3 not sure ?

friends I am new on this site, Any suggestion/advice appreciated

[1312011_eb2I]

Hi all,
My lawyer is busy and told me they are planning to submit my (I485) application by 20-23 Oct.
Do I have any options here and is it safe to wait for few more days?
Kindly advise.

[inspired_p]

Can you please tell me or anyone
How may i944 form is needed - is one per family enough- that's what our lawyer send
We both - husband and wife r filing i485 and lawyer said only primary applicant has to file i944
Is it true?

My lawyer told me the form 944 is required for each I-485 application ( primary and derivatives) , but supporting documents are mostly common

[rabp77]

Question about Medicals
My lawyer is adamant saying no need to file I-485 with medicals. We should wait for the RFE. I really feel my PD is OCT 2010 is expected to be current in EB3-I for sure, so the medicals may not be a waste of money.
Other than the medicals expiring and loss of money, is there any reason why it makes sense not to file with medicals that I do not know.

Your lawyer is right. Please see the lines below from page 15 of the i-485 instructions (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...85instr-pc.pdf).

---
You are NOT required to submit Form I-693 at the time you file your adjustment application, but may do so if youwish. Because of the time-limited validity of Form I-693, you may choose to submit your Form I-693 after you file your Form I-485. You may also submit Form I-693 in person at an interview in a USCIS field office, if an interview is required. By waiting to submit Form I-693, you may avoid having to repeat the immigration medical examination.
---

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Your lawyer is right. Please see the lines below from page 15 of the i-485 instructions (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...85instr-pc.pdf).

---
You are NOT required to submit Form I-693 at the time you file your adjustment application, but may do so if youwish. Because of the time-limited validity of Form I-693, you may choose to submit your Form I-693 after you file your Form I-485. You may also submit Form I-693 in person at an interview in a USCIS field office, if an interview is required. By waiting to submit Form I-693, you may avoid having to repeat the immigration medical examination.
---

My attorney’s decision regarding medicals since I am May 2010 was that we will still be dealing with the pandemic come Jan-Feb 2021. So there may be a possibility that they will waive the biometrics and interview so the hope is once the FAD is current, there will be no other delays. Only time will tell I guess.