EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[rsnake]

Charlie said today there will be significant visa wastage. It's so frustrating not having numbers of visas used etc. mid year statistics. I wonder if someone has filed a Freedom of Information Act request and then sued USCIS for these numbers. It does not appear that there is some national security reasons for not revealing it. Maybe they will say it will take too much time to get them ready, but according to CO he already gets those numbers from USCIS so they work on preparing them. Same with the inventory which I think was last released in 2018 or 2017. I wonder if some immigration lawyers will band together and do it pro bono like with the H4EAD delays lawsuit because visa wastage affects their client revenue. Then again they make money from constant H1 extensions.

[idliman]

Charlie said today there will be significant visa wastage. It's so frustrating not having numbers of visas used etc. mid year statistics. I wonder if someone has filed a Freedom of Information Act request and then sued USCIS for these numbers. It does not appear that there is some national security reasons for not revealing it. Maybe they will say it will take too much time to get them ready, but according to CO he already gets those numbers from USCIS so they work on preparing them. Same with the inventory which I think was last released in 2018 or 2017. I wonder if some immigration lawyers will band together and do it pro bono like with the H4EAD delays lawsuit because visa wastage affects their client revenue. Then again they make money from constant H1 extensions.

People may call me not optimistic on progressive immigration policies. I have watched the immigration movie many times since 2010. Everytime an imigration bill comes up, I get hyped and end up in a sorrow state for the next week. I strongly believe that one should take matters into their own hands and stop blindly believing whatever the attorneys say. Why would the attorneys not advise people to submit I-693's when they know very well that the "DF" dates are based on the expected movement in a year. I can understand them not taking medicals from 2014 or 2013 EB-3 applicants. If you are a 2010 to 2012 applicant, you should have submitted I-693's. Is potentially saving $350 worth when compared to a faster GC? IMO, everyone in the backlog should have the mindset that everyone else (company or attorneys) want the status-quo to remain. You better fight for it and have the will to break out of the system. Be prepared to put effort to educate yourself on the law and DIY yourself. You are all extremely qualified individuals.

People get buned out by the system. While the attorneys and companies might fight tooth and nail for your H1B, they are not going to put the same effort for your GC. I was sad to hear a bunch of the folks from a 'bank' in the big apple missed a chance to file I-485 as frog firm messed up their I-485s. The number of people who missed AC21 eligibility and EAD+AP's are in high double digits. How can such a big frog firm with a omen end up making simple errors which leads to I-485 being not accepted. Lets say if Grace amendment or something equivalent happens to prevent spillover from FB to EB in 2022, what are you going to do next? My advice would be not to get comfortable with your existing status-quo. There was a post from one member here, which detailed the effort he had put in since he got current to get his GC. I believe he got it 3-4 weeks after his FA date was current. I couldnot find his post, but if you read it you will be inspired.

I truely believe that they will endup wasting a lot of GCs this year. You just have to look at the number of folks from 2012 who are still waiting as a benchmark. It has been 6 to 8 months since they all become current. Because of this wastage, we cannot even say how far the DF will move next year.

[rave79]

People may call me not optimistic on progressive immigration policies. I have watched the immigration movie many times since 2010. Everytime an imigration bill comes up, I get hyped and end up in a sorrow state for the next week. I strongly believe that one should take matters into their own hands and stop blindly believing whatever the attorneys say. Why would the attorneys not advise people to submit I-693's when they know very well that the "DF" dates are based on the expected movement in a year. I can understand them not taking medicals from 2014 or 2013 EB-3 applicants. If you are a 2010 to 2012 applicant, you should have submitted I-693's. Is potentially saving $350 worth when compared to a faster GC? IMO, everyone in the backlog should have the mindset that everyone else (company or attorneys) want the status-quo to remain. You better fight for it and have the will to break out of the system. Be prepared to put effort to educate yourself on the law and DIY yourself. You are all extremely qualified individuals.

People get buned out by the system. While the attorneys and companies might fight tooth and nail for your H1B, they are not going to put the same effort for your GC. I was sad to hear a bunch of the folks from a 'bank' in the big apple missed a chance to file I-485 as frog firm messed up their I-485s. The number of people who missed AC21 eligibility and EAD+AP's are in high double digits. How can such a big frog firm with a omen end up making simple errors which leads to I-485 being not accepted. Lets say if Grace amendment or something equivalent happens to prevent spillover from FB to EB in 2022, what are you going to do next? My advice would be not to get comfortable with your existing status-quo. There was a post from one member here, which detailed the effort he had put in since he got current to get his GC. I believe he got it 3-4 weeks after his FA date was current. I couldnot find his post, but if you read it you will be inspired.

I truely believe that they will endup wasting a lot of GCs this year. You just have to look at the number of folks from 2012 who are still waiting as a benchmark. It has been 6 to 8 months since they all become current. Because of this wastage, we cannot even say how far the DF will move next year.

First up, my first post A big shout out to Idliman, Q and other experts out there ...great job folks and a big THANK YOU..!!
The way CO sounds its very exciting and clear that EB3 and EB2 India reach their respective Filing dates this year. But the way USCIS is processing does not match with this and seems to drain this enthusiasm
Its intriguing how CO is allocating the GC/Immigrant Visa numbers so aggressively and how many of these numbers go in vain if USCIS does not catch up by Sep'2021?

[Zenzone]

People may call me not optimistic on progressive immigration policies. I have watched the immigration movie many times since 2010. Everytime an imigration bill comes up, I get hyped and end up in a sorrow state for the next week. I strongly believe that one should take matters into their own hands and stop blindly believing whatever the attorneys say. Why would the attorneys not advise people to submit I-693's when they know very well that the "DF" dates are based on the expected movement in a year. I can understand them not taking medicals from 2014 or 2013 EB-3 applicants. If you are a 2010 to 2012 applicant, you should have submitted I-693's. Is potentially saving $350 worth when compared to a faster GC? IMO, everyone in the backlog should have the mindset that everyone else (company or attorneys) want the status-quo to remain. You better fight for it and have the will to break out of the system. Be prepared to put effort to educate yourself on the law and DIY yourself. You are all extremely qualified individuals.

People get buned out by the system. While the attorneys and companies might fight tooth and nail for your H1B, they are not going to put the same effort for your GC. I was sad to hear a bunch of the folks from a 'bank' in the big apple missed a chance to file I-485 as frog firm messed up their I-485s. The number of people who missed AC21 eligibility and EAD+AP's are in high double digits. How can such a big frog firm with a omen end up making simple errors which leads to I-485 being not accepted. Lets say if Grace amendment or something equivalent happens to prevent spillover from FB to EB in 2022, what are you going to do next? My advice would be not to get comfortable with your existing status-quo. There was a post from one member here, which detailed the effort he had put in since he got current to get his GC. I believe he got it 3-4 weeks after his FA date was current. I couldnot find his post, but if you read it you will be inspired.

I truely believe that they will endup wasting a lot of GCs this year. You just have to look at the number of folks from 2012 who are still waiting as a benchmark. It has been 6 to 8 months since they all become current. Because of this wastage, we cannot even say how far the DF will move next year.

I have nothing bur respect for you Idliman. However, I also see RFEs being generated at faster pace based on the trackitt trackers I have been following. I want to see the glass half full here given that I'm one of many who didn't send the medicals in Oct. Also, I was one of the lucky ones who got EAD/AP approved (card received) and biometrics done. However, gated now by this Medical RFE waiting game. Hope is all I have and I hope I end like many of our co-applicants who got greened recently with Medical RFE after filing in October. As far as Grace Amendment etc. those worries are always there until you make it (like yourself), but my view with this pro-immigrant administration is if they take away SO (hypothetically) there will hopefully be a wasted visa re-capture or country cap removal that will also happen along side (but that's anyone's guess though!). As far as this year is concerned I will consider myself lucky if they use 200-220K visas for emp. based GCs.

[Sebiswaiting]

Charlie is still saying that EB3 will continue to move fast and potentially reach filing date. What does it imply on downgraded petitions?
Has he got good idea about downgraded applicants?
If yes, then downgraDe seems to much less than what seemed to be the trend, and eb2 will continue to move slow.

If he still do not know about number of downgrades, then when do you think that number will be clear?

Spillovers:
He wasnt clear if he has started factoring vertical spillover . If I am not wrong, usually EB1 to EB2 spillovers starts to be considered from around July August, isn't it? In which case EB2 should move faster after that.

[vsivarama]

Charlie is still saying that EB3 will continue to move fast and potentially reach filing date. What does it imply on downgraded petitions?
Has he got good idea about downgraded applicants?
If yes, then downgraDe seems to much less than what seemed to be the trend, and eb2 will continue to move slow.

If he still do not know about number of downgrades, then when do you think that number will be clear?

Spillovers:
He wasnt clear if he has started factoring vertical spillover . If I am not wrong, usually EB1 to EB2 spillovers starts to be considered from around July August, isn't it? In which case EB2 should move faster after that.

Charlie said he is moving the dates based on the number of documentarily qualified applications. In which case the downgrade numbers to EB3 does not really matter. Most of the downgrades do not have approved i140s and so they will not meet the criteria of being documentarily qualified. With less number of qualified applications EB3 can jump ahead 6-8 months at a time. This is my analysis, just trying to read the tea leaves here.

[MKPD2015]

Charlie is still saying that EB3 will continue to move fast and potentially reach filing date. What does it imply on downgraded petitions?
Has he got good idea about downgraded applicants?
If yes, then downgraDe seems to much less than what seemed to be the trend, and eb2 will continue to move slow.

If he still do not know about number of downgrades, then when do you think that number will be clear?

Spillovers:
He wasnt clear if he has started factoring vertical spillover . If I am not wrong, usually EB1 to EB2 spillovers starts to be considered from around July August, isn't it? In which case EB2 should move faster after that.

In the last month?s chat session Charlie said he did not have the downgrade numbers yet and expect to receive them in next few months. So, when they moved EB3 filing dates to Jan 2014 they definitely did not account for the huge number of downgrades. They might have estimated some number and moved the filing date from Jan 2015 to Jan 2014, but definitely did not account for the sheer number of downgrade applications. Even today I think he don?t have the downgrade numbers. Not sure why USCIS is not sharing the number, I see in other platforms that there are good number of people who got their 140 approved in premium processing for downgrade petition with 2012 and 2013 dates. Hard to believe there are fewer downgrades.May be CO might get the number soon and move dates accordingly.

[Alunity]

Gurus/Senior members, I am following this forum for couple of months. I wish I had known about this forum earlier. I am OCT filer with EB3 I downgrade and April 2012 PD. I have done PP for I-140 and got it approved. I have not received biometrics appointment yet. I have booked an appointment for medicals coming Thursday. Is it a good idea to submit the medicals by interfiling or postpone the medical examination till I get my biometrics appointment? Also, is there any suggestion on how to get my biometrics appointment scheduled in Boston ASC?

[idliman]

I have nothing bur respect for you Idliman. However, I also see RFEs being generated at faster pace based on the trackitt trackers I have been following. I want to see the glass half full here given that I'm one of many who didn't send the medicals in Oct. Also, I was one of the lucky ones who got EAD/AP approved (card received) and biometrics done. However, gated now by this Medical RFE waiting game. Hope is all I have and I hope I end like many of our co-applicants who got greened recently with Medical RFE after filing in October. As far as Grace Amendment etc. those worries are always there until you make it (like yourself), but my view with this pro-immigrant administration is if they take away SO (hypothetically) there will hopefully be a wasted visa re-capture or country cap removal that will also happen along side (but that's anyone's guess though!). As far as this year is concerned I will consider myself lucky if they use 200-220K visas for emp. based GCs.

Zen, Thanks. My intention was to make everyone work harder towards their immigration goal and not take anything for granted. One or two errors in the immigration front might push GC by 8 or 10 years. Having gone through the process, I don't want someone to wait another 8 or 10 years for their GC after getting EAD+AP's. While for most of the folks an EAD is as good as GC, for some jobs, GC makes a lot of difference. I sincerely hope for issual of as many GCs as possible or the FA dates to progress so that kids don't age out.

[MidWestMaverick]

Zen, Thanks. My intention was to make everyone work harder towards their immigration goal and not take anything for granted. One or two errors in the immigration front might push GC by 8 or 10 years. Having gone through the process, I don't want someone to wait another 8 or 10 years for their GC after getting EAD+AP's. While for most of the folks an EAD is as good as GC, for some jobs, GC makes a lot of difference. I sincerely hope for issual of as many GCs as possible or the FA dates to progress so that kids don't age out.

Idliman, about the frog + men, I second your thoughts. I have a PD of 2012 and I had to fight tooth and nail last year to get my GC process started, the folks from that firm tried their best to discourage me. Nevertheless, having been in this "chakravyuh" of GC for so long (we know how to get in, but not out ) , I have learned that its your own battle to fight.

[cm5038]

my PD is Dec-2011 and have filed new Eb3-140 /485 in Oct 2020.
I checked with the immigration attorney and he says 485J was not filed as there was concurrent filing.
Question: Can I file I-485J now ? Should I file I-485 J ?

Thanks in advance.
CM

[mohan_jgd]

People may call me not optimistic on progressive immigration policies. I have watched the immigration movie many times since 2010. Everytime an imigration bill comes up, I get hyped and end up in a sorrow state for the next week. I strongly believe that one should take matters into their own hands and stop blindly believing whatever the attorneys say. Why would the attorneys not advise people to submit I-693's when they know very well that the "DF" dates are based on the expected movement in a year. I can understand them not taking medicals from 2014 or 2013 EB-3 applicants. If you are a 2010 to 2012 applicant, you should have submitted I-693's. Is potentially saving $350 worth when compared to a faster GC? IMO, everyone in the backlog should have the mindset that everyone else (company or attorneys) want the status-quo to remain. You better fight for it and have the will to break out of the system. Be prepared to put effort to educate yourself on the law and DIY yourself. You are all extremely qualified individuals.

People get buned out by the system. While the attorneys and companies might fight tooth and nail for your H1B, they are not going to put the same effort for your GC. I was sad to hear a bunch of the folks from a 'bank' in the big apple missed a chance to file I-485 as frog firm messed up their I-485s. The number of people who missed AC21 eligibility and EAD+AP's are in high double digits. How can such a big frog firm with a omen end up making simple errors which leads to I-485 being not accepted. Lets say if Grace amendment or something equivalent happens to prevent spillover from FB to EB in 2022, what are you going to do next? My advice would be not to get comfortable with your existing status-quo. There was a post from one member here, which detailed the effort he had put in since he got current to get his GC. I believe he got it 3-4 weeks after his FA date was current. I couldnot find his post, but if you read it you will be inspired.

I truly believe that they will endup wasting a lot of GCs this year. You just have to look at the number of folks from 2012 who are still waiting as a benchmark. It has been 6 to 8 months since they all become current. Because of this wastage, we cannot even say how far the DF will move next year.

Couldn't agree more with you, Idliman. Attorneys from the "duck" firm refused to send the medicals along with the I-485 application. Heck, it was a huge struggle for folks in my company who were working with them to send the applications early. In the end, they applied on the last day of Oct 2020 and we are still waiting for our EAD/APs. I had my bio-metrics done just last week. Running on hope that EAD/AP will come soon and i get greened after filing medical RFE.

[rave79]

I see your PD is current since April. By any chance did you receive your medical RFE yet?

Not to swing the moods here but the reality is https://twitter.com/David_J_Bier/sta...082073091?s=20

[rave79]

Unfortunate reality is https://twitter.com/David_J_Bier/sta...082073091?s=20

[Alunity]

Gurus/Senior members, I got my I-140 downgrade application approved (premium processing) and received the receipt with incorrect priority date. Correct priority date: April 25, 2012 vs Incorrect priority date April 8, 2019. Not sure if it's attorney mistake or USCIS mistake. Do anyone know if we can correct the priority date? If so, what is the action that needs to be done?

[srimurthy]

Moved the medical's discussion to a new thread:
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...2394#post82394

[maverick2010]

People may call me not optimistic on progressive immigration policies. I have watched the immigration movie many times since 2010. Everytime an imigration bill comes up, I get hyped and end up in a sorrow state for the next week. I strongly believe that one should take matters into their own hands and stop blindly believing whatever the attorneys say. Why would the attorneys not advise people to submit I-693's when they know very well that the "DF" dates are based on the expected movement in a year. I can understand them not taking medicals from 2014 or 2013 EB-3 applicants. If you are a 2010 to 2012 applicant, you should have submitted I-693's. Is potentially saving $350 worth when compared to a faster GC? IMO, everyone in the backlog should have the mindset that everyone else (company or attorneys) want the status-quo to remain. You better fight for it and have the will to break out of the system. Be prepared to put effort to educate yourself on the law and DIY yourself. You are all extremely qualified individuals.

People get buned out by the system. While the attorneys and companies might fight tooth and nail for your H1B, they are not going to put the same effort for your GC. I was sad to hear a bunch of the folks from a 'bank' in the big apple missed a chance to file I-485 as frog firm messed up their I-485s. The number of people who missed AC21 eligibility and EAD+AP's are in high double digits. How can such a big frog firm with a omen end up making simple errors which leads to I-485 being not accepted. Lets say if Grace amendment or something equivalent happens to prevent spillover from FB to EB in 2022, what are you going to do next? My advice would be not to get comfortable with your existing status-quo. There was a post from one member here, which detailed the effort he had put in since he got current to get his GC. I believe he got it 3-4 weeks after his FA date was current. I couldnot find his post, but if you read it you will be inspired.

I truely believe that they will endup wasting a lot of GCs this year. You just have to look at the number of folks from 2012 who are still waiting as a benchmark. It has been 6 to 8 months since they all become current. Because of this wastage, we cannot even say how far the DF will move next year.

Idliman,

I hear what you are saying and agree 100%. I heard on other popular forum that famous law firm is planning to have big discussion later this week on interfiling medicals for applicants who have FAD current. Any thoughts? Do you think it is good idea to interfile medicals without RFE?

[abcx13]

Idliman,

I hear what you are saying and agree 100%. I heard on other popular forum that famous law firm is planning to have big discussion later this week on interfiling medicals for applicants who have FAD current. Any thoughts? Do you think it is good idea to interfile medicals without RFE?

This probably belongs in the other thread, but can you please share a link?

Thanks!

[abcx13]

Unfortunate reality is https://twitter.com/David_J_Bier/sta...082073091?s=20

This is pretty sad.

Copy pasting the tweet

USCIS has 262,000 EB green cards to issue for this year. It approved just 27,485 adjustments in the 1st quarter of FY2021. That'd be 109,000 for the year, with consulates, say 110. Even if USCIS doubles its approval rate, it won't come close to using them all. Absolute disaster.

Apparently Siskind et al will be suing on this issue. His Twitter says he is working on a plaintiff onboarding app.

https://twitter.com/gsiskind
https://twitter.com/ckuck/status/1397286977926541318

[LeoAugust]

People may call me not optimistic on progressive immigration policies. I have watched the immigration movie many times since 2010. Everytime an imigration bill comes up, I get hyped and end up in a sorrow state for the next week. I strongly believe that one should take matters into their own hands and stop blindly believing whatever the attorneys say. Why would the attorneys not advise people to submit I-693's when they know very well that the "DF" dates are based on the expected movement in a year. I can understand them not taking medicals from 2014 or 2013 EB-3 applicants. If you are a 2010 to 2012 applicant, you should have submitted I-693's. Is potentially saving $350 worth when compared to a faster GC? IMO, everyone in the backlog should have the mindset that everyone else (company or attorneys) want the status-quo to remain. You better fight for it and have the will to break out of the system. Be prepared to put effort to educate yourself on the law and DIY yourself. You are all extremely qualified individuals.

People get buned out by the system. While the attorneys and companies might fight tooth and nail for your H1B, they are not going to put the same effort for your GC. I was sad to hear a bunch of the folks from a 'bank' in the big apple missed a chance to file I-485 as frog firm messed up their I-485s. The number of people who missed AC21 eligibility and EAD+AP's are in high double digits. How can such a big frog firm with a omen end up making simple errors which leads to I-485 being not accepted. Lets say if Grace amendment or something equivalent happens to prevent spillover from FB to EB in 2022, what are you going to do next? My advice would be not to get comfortable with your existing status-quo. There was a post from one member here, which detailed the effort he had put in since he got current to get his GC. I believe he got it 3-4 weeks after his FA date was current. I couldnot find his post, but if you read it you will be inspired.

I truely believe that they will endup wasting a lot of GCs this year. You just have to look at the number of folks from 2012 who are still waiting as a benchmark. It has been 6 to 8 months since they all become current. Because of this wastage, we cannot even say how far the DF will move next year.

Thanks @idliman sharing your thoughts. Good one. I like your posts. while going through your post you referred somebody's post about the experience. I tried searching for it but did not find it. In case you come across please share. Thanks...

[sstest]

Gurus/Senior members, I got my I-140 downgrade application approved (premium processing) and received the receipt with incorrect priority date. Correct priority date: April 25, 2012 vs Incorrect priority date April 8, 2019. Not sure if it's attorney mistake or USCIS mistake. Do anyone know if we can correct the priority date? If so, what is the action that needs to be done?

I had a similar issue with my I-485 receipt notice though with less deviation than yours. PD was printed as 17 June instead of 12 June. I brought it to the attorney's attention.

Attorneys raised SR with USCIS and USCIS informed them that they took note of this discrepancy and that the officer working on the case will make corrections for it. Attorneys further suggested that they expect all future communication to reflect the correction.

[Alunity]

Thank you sstest. How long it took for the correction?

[abcx13]

Interesting video from about 30 minutes onwards on immigration litigation against USCIS/DoS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bjk6SOFEAZY

I guess they are pitching for business for the EB AoS lawsuit, but they say that they haven't been receiving any EADs or interview requests or anything for applications filed in October. Though I guess some people here have been getting greened...

[sstest]

Thank you sstest. How long it took for the correction?

Just to be clear, I did not receive any updated I-498 receipt notice. It was my lawyers' assertion that USCIS has made this correction in their files and will use this in all future communications. I have not received any further updates on any of the applications that would confirm that. I can update once I do get any updates.

About the timeline, I think it took 5- 6 weeks to get the response after filing the SR.

[gsingh]

This is pretty sad.

Copy pasting the tweet



Apparently Siskind et al will be suing on this issue. His Twitter says he is working on a plaintiff onboarding app.

https://twitter.com/gsiskind
https://twitter.com/ckuck/status/1397286977926541318

At this rate and hypothetically assuming with some improvements, USCIS issues 150K green cards in FY2021.
Any idea on how far would the backlog clear out ?

Thanks