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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #3026
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    Hi March1612
    I am on same boat my priority date is 2010 Feb 13 still waiting for update

  2. #3027
    Caught the Charlie Chat, he is already preparing everyone that tens of thousands of visas may go unused because the numbers available are so large. He also said he is not moving dates aggressively because he wants "plenty" of numbers available for ROW should there be demand or something to that effect. He was also tirelessly praising USCIS for working really hard and for having processed 90% of 2020 numbers despite the pandemic. They also took a question on why India gets so many more EB visas than others and he explained that there is 7% limit so that no country "monopolizes" the visas but the law provides blah blah blah. He also said most FADs will reach filing dates listed in Oct bulletin by september except EB3 India and one other category not relevant to India. Reading the tea leaves from those tstatements, I believe USCIS is preparing to waste as many visas as they fancy. It is my firm believe that backlogged EB India community should organize and lobby as hard as possible with the Biden administration to ensure that all available visas for this and next financial year are used. This is a much easier lift, almost a low hanging fruit compared to getting any legislation passed, including the country cap removal legislations. I do not understand why the fanatic country cap removal proponents are sitting quietly and twidding their thumbs when the least amount of activity would bear the most fruit. It would also make the country cap removal easier considering the smaller the gap between India and China and ROW, the lesser the drag on others getting their GCs because of country cap rempoval. Am I missing something here? Or, are the so called grass roots activists of EB backlog just in it for fund raising and trolling the hapless community.

  3. #3028
    Quote Originally Posted by LeoAugust View Post
    From CO's live call
    1- Sep-2020 Filling dates will be FAD-Sep-2021
    2- EB2 will be aggressive in jun-jul
    3- EB3 will be aggressive in jul-jul
    4- USCIS seems like will honor the apps
    5- Current month VB was not aggressive for EB2I due to ROW
    6- Aggressive means more than 6 months (my assumption)
    EB3 Filing date is adjusted later to 2014 Jan and he said he will try everything possible to meet that date but I think they will change their mind once he start getting the downgrade numbers from USCIS.

    He mentioned couple of times that there is going to be visa wastage. How much is the key.

    CO mentioned that USCIS is doing everything possible to increase processing speed but we don't see that in reality yet.

  4. #3029
    One last piece of useful info now that I am done venting, per Charlie, EB2 and EB3 India would move at least as much in June as they did in May bulletin, possibly more. In July, they may or may not move as much depending on other demand, but likely will.

  5. #3030
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2011Feb View Post
    Hi,
    I can tell from my own story. Getting approved from AOS EAD is having better chance then H4EAD.
    I applied H1 extension (H4 and EAD for my wife) in Aug 2010. My H1 is approved. My wife's H4 and EAD is still pending.
    Tried multiple times for expediting H4 EAD , nothing worked. (Multiple SR's, One time with Senator's office). Finally my wife had to quit a job.
    Applied EAD through AOS and got our EAD's recently.
    Again this is case to case, you think decide .
    Thank you for your insights. I have similar thoughts. I guess at this point in time, I will just take chances with AOS EAD for my wife as by August, it would be 10 months since filing so the chances of that coming through is higher than H4-EAD.

    It was good until 2019, when 539 and 765 would also be processed with H1-B and a determination made in two weeks of filed in premium.
    H1-B since 2005; EB2I; PD: 12/10; I-485/131/765 RD: 10/29/20; ND: 1/18/21; Biometrics: 3/29/21; EAD: 4/17/2021

  6. #3031
    Pandit
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    Quote Originally Posted by Positive View Post
    One last piece of useful info now that I am done venting, per Charlie, EB2 and EB3 India would move at least as much in June as they did in May bulletin, possibly more. In July, they may or may not move as much depending on other demand, but likely will.
    Why doesn't USCIS come out and talk and take questions the way Oppenheim does? Even though this is very useful, it gives us (AOS folks) no clarity on what our fates will be this year.
    Green card approved on 6/28/2021
    EB2-India; PD 2/10/2010; I-485 RD 3/22/2012 at TSC; RFE received 05/08/21: I-693 (Medical), "Job Offer Letter", and Biographic info (G-352A). RFE response received by USCIS 6/4/21; Officer # XM2027

  7. #3032
    Saw someone had posted some notes from Charlie's conversation on another site that I follow. Ofcourse the video is available:

    ------
    Joined a bit late to Charlie's meeting. Took some notes.

    Lot of idiotic questions about USCIS to Charlie.

    Q. How you determine how much the dates move for EB2 and 3 for China and India.
    A. Section 202 A5, Eb2 china FAD is Dec 1, 2016. Eb2 India FAD is Aug 1, 2010 so any unused EB2 numbers will go to India.

    Q. Do you expect the September Final Action Dates will surpass the application filing dates that were listed in Oct 2020
    A. With the exception of EB3 India, and China EB5...the answer is Yes, by Sept they will surpass the filing dates. It is important to remember the Filing dates were what was expected in Sept 2021, some of those dates have already surpassed and will continue to do so.

    Q. What are the chances the June 2017 PD will move in this Fiscal year
    A. On the employment side, there will be VERY AGGRESIVE movement except China EB5 and EB3 India.

    Q. What are the chances of the EB Final Action Dates reaching Filing Dates ?
    A. Those application dates should reach by Sept, most have reached or have far exceeded. he went to to say about dates he may have changed. Something about 8-12 months to meet.

    Q. Do you expect any retrogression for EB2/3 India ?
    A. Definite NO. the FAD will be the minimum that will be going to the month of sept. I expect dates will continue to move forward for the remainder of the year.

    Q. How many visas will spill over from Eb4 and EB5 to EB1/2
    A It is likely the EB4 limit will be reached. Any unused will move up to EB1 as would EB5 preference number. The combination of the two is atleast 10,000 to fall upt to EB1. the EB1 is current for all countries now, so if we do not have sufficient demand to use the first preference limit, those ununsed EB1 will fall to EB2 and that has already started to happen.

    Q. Will Indians get the majority of the EB green cards?
    A. Important to remember section 202 A5 of the Immigration & Nationality Act. The numbers can be made strictly in priority date order without looking at per country limit. It does appear that will be the case going forward.


    Q. Why isnt EB2 India date moving as aggresively ?
    A. Although we do expect the otherwise unused EB2 numbers to be used this year. There could be a potential need for those numbers for other countries through the remainder of the year. I will move EB2 India aggresively for June and July but will be careful and want to ensure there will be numbers for other countries for their country quota.

    Q. Do you expect all of the FY 2021 EB Visa numbers to be used.
    A. USCIS processed over 90% of the numbers last year. This years numbers are 68% higher than last year's numbers. Therefore we believe it is somewhat unrealistic not to expect tens of thousands of unused numbers despite everyone's efforts (MASSIVE WASTAGE COMING)....

    Q. How many visas has been used so far for EB2?
    We do not provide the numbers. Every effort is made to maximize numbers across the categories and USCIS is doing a great job.

    Q. EB3 India moved by 5 months for EB3 India, Do you anticipate such movement for June and July as well.
    A Yes, we will be moving aggresively not just for EB3 India but other categories as well for June. Perhaps much more than what we did for may 2021. For july the pace may slow down a little but I think it is unlikely.

    Q. Online status shows processing of EB green cards is slow. You said it will skyrocket.
    A. I'm optimistic that USCIS will maximize the operations and every effort is being made to maximize the numbers used. Given the fact the 2021 employment limit is 68% higher, it is unrealistic to expect all numbers are used(Wastage)

    Q. Why is it so hard to release the bulletin the same day every month.
    A. Attempt is to make the determination of each upcoming month on or about the 8th of the month. Once we have made the determination of the dates and prepared the visa bulletin and prepared the cable to consular posts, that information has to be cleared by other individuals who have schedules etc. Every attempt is madde to get the clearance made quick. The bulletin has been coming out earlier than it has been.

    Q. What happens to the FB 122,000 that is not used up by the EB category by the end of the Financial Year 2021 ?
    A. The approx unused FB visas amounting to 122,000 were added to EB categoery(262,000) for FY 2021. If they are not used this year by EB, then they will fall across for FY2022 Family limit. Based on past usage, we dont think it will impact Family based numbers.

    Q. Are we going to waive interview requests for EB ?
    A. Not aware of interviews being waived(Thats a USCIS requirement not DoS. Bad question)

    Q. Do we know how USCIS is processing cases.
    A. They are aggresively processing all available cases. Ask USCIS.

  8. #3033
    My priority date is June 19 2013. Filed my I-485/AoS in Nov'2020, currently EB2 and EB3 I-140 are still pending with my current employer.Even with plausible wastage that CO pointed out today, is it expected to hit FAD by this Sep '21?

    Thx

  9. #3034
    Quote Originally Posted by GCkaLADDU View Post
    Interesting question from a user from trackitt. Or may be i am just being a noob

    When is the visa number available considered to be used? FAD moving to a date X means that they have enough visa's available for allocation in a particular category until that date. Lets say 5000 visas to cover folks until 1-Feb-2011 in EB3 in May 2021 Bulletin. Does that mean that all folks 'current' would get a visa number allocated irrespective of when actually a green card is issued (8-12 months down the line)?

    Also, if 1000 downgrades kick in during this one month window then how do they get visa numbers allocated? I assume that priority dates play a role meaning original non-downgrade folks towards the later part (ex: end of Jan 2011) might not get visa allotment due to downgrade folks with PD in early to mid Jan 2011.

    Anyone knows?
    I don't know but am also curious. Does anyone else know? If USCISC has pre-adjudicated I-485s, could they consider a visa number as used even if the card isn't processed or produced? What if they have 485s that are not pre-adjudicated but have been filed? Could they provisionally use a visa number?

  10. #3035
    Quote Originally Posted by abcx13 View Post
    I don't know but am also curious. Does anyone else know? If USCISC has pre-adjudicated I-485s, could they consider a visa number as used even if the card isn't processed or produced? What if they have 485s that are not pre-adjudicated but have been filed? Could they provisionally use a visa number?
    As far as I know they assign or use a visa number only when your "file" is complete including unexpired medicals at the time of adjudication. I suggest that you watch today's Chat with Charlie where he explained how and at what point a visa number issued.
    TSC; EB2-I: PD: 17-SEP-09; I-485 RD: 25-APR-12

  11. #3036
    Quote Originally Posted by Positive View Post
    Caught the Charlie Chat, he is already preparing everyone that tens of thousands of visas may go unused because the numbers available are so large. He also said he is not moving dates aggressively because he wants "plenty" of numbers available for ROW should there be demand or something to that effect. He was also tirelessly praising USCIS for working really hard and for having processed 90% of 2020 numbers despite the pandemic. They also took a question on why India gets so many more EB visas than others and he explained that there is 7% limit so that no country "monopolizes" the visas but the law provides blah blah blah. He also said most FADs will reach filing dates listed in Oct bulletin by september except EB3 India and one other category not relevant to India. Reading the tea leaves from those tstatements, I believe USCIS is preparing to waste as many visas as they fancy. It is my firm believe that backlogged EB India community should organize and lobby as hard as possible with the Biden administration to ensure that all available visas for this and next financial year are used. This is a much easier lift, almost a low hanging fruit compared to getting any legislation passed, including the country cap removal legislations. I do not understand why the fanatic country cap removal proponents are sitting quietly and twidding their thumbs when the least amount of activity would bear the most fruit. It would also make the country cap removal easier considering the smaller the gap between India and China and ROW, the lesser the drag on others getting their GCs because of country cap rempoval. Am I missing something here? Or, are the so called grass roots activists of EB backlog just in it for fund raising and trolling the hapless community.
    Wastage is inevitable. Even with Wastage ; there should be no retrogression and next year India should keep getting more spillover from FB
    PD EB3-I 10-28-2010; RD 10-23-2020 LPR 08-26-2021

  12. #3037
    Pandit
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    Quote Originally Posted by abcx13 View Post
    I don't know but am also curious. Does anyone else know? If USCISC has pre-adjudicated I-485s, could they consider a visa number as used even if the card isn't processed or produced? What if they have 485s that are not pre-adjudicated but have been filed? Could they provisionally use a visa number?
    That was what I felt the USCIS should do. If they cared about the immigrants (which they don't), they would at once allocate a visa number to preadjudicated applications that have been sitting for 10+ years and issue "conditional green cards" with a 1 or 2-year validity and then process the medical, Supp-J, etc., RFEs as they come in. They do conditional green cards all the time for marriage-based and investment-based immigrants.
    Green card approved on 6/28/2021
    EB2-India; PD 2/10/2010; I-485 RD 3/22/2012 at TSC; RFE received 05/08/21: I-693 (Medical), "Job Offer Letter", and Biographic info (G-352A). RFE response received by USCIS 6/4/21; Officer # XM2027

  13. #3038
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    FYI - USCIS have published performance data for Q1 2020 - https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...y2021_qtr1.pdf

  14. #3039
    Quote Originally Posted by Palver View Post
    FYI - USCIS have published performance data for Q1 2020 - https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...y2021_qtr1.pdf
    Thanks. This closely tracks Trackitt multiplier of 10 for approved cases (same as last year). So, right now, they have approved a little over 50k cases.

  15. #3040
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    @nbk 1976 your priority date is 2/10/2010?

  16. #3041
    Quote Originally Posted by medatom View Post
    Sorry, have been having some issues on the mobile site. Hopefully I am not spamming and apologize if I did.

    As an update, we received the physical copies of the RFEs.
    It's medical and supp j for the primary and medical and g325a for the dependant.
    The lawyer is asking $1600 for each person.
    Did anyone file g325a by themselves as I see it's just one page document?
    Thanks much all.
    Do a medical exam and the doctor will provide you a sealed envelope. G-325A is a one page form (biographic form). That is very easy. Just make sure that you fill every detail (including the last address in India). Sign G-325A, make a cover letter and send it to USCIS along with the barcode sheet they have provided. This is litterally a robbery by the law firm to charge $1600 for G-325A and a cover letter (some firms might have a flat rate for all RFEs). Good Luck.
    LPR Since 07MAY2021

  17. #3042
    Pandit
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    Quote Originally Posted by korlakunta08 View Post
    @nbk 1976 your priority date is 2/10/2010?
    Yes, other details are in my signature.
    Green card approved on 6/28/2021
    EB2-India; PD 2/10/2010; I-485 RD 3/22/2012 at TSC; RFE received 05/08/21: I-693 (Medical), "Job Offer Letter", and Biographic info (G-352A). RFE response received by USCIS 6/4/21; Officer # XM2027

  18. #3043
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    My PD is 2010/02/13 that is the reason I am asking waiting for RFE

  19. #3044
    hello friends, i submitted my i485 back in oct 29 2020. my priority date is eb2 oct 2009. my finger prints were taken on march 31. its been almost six months now. not received EAD/AP. how long does it take for EAD/AP and green card. any one in the same boat or recently received? my application starts with msc.

  20. #3045
    Yoda
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    Quote Originally Posted by newsletter1978 View Post
    hello friends, i submitted my i485 back in oct 29 2020. my priority date is eb2 oct 2009. my finger prints were taken on march 31. its been almost six months now. not received EAD/AP. how long does it take for EAD/AP and green card. any one in the same boat or recently received? my application starts with msc.
    Same situation except PD is Dec 2010. Finger prints 8th April.

  21. #3046
    Quote Originally Posted by newsletter1978 View Post
    hello friends, i submitted my i485 back in oct 29 2020. my priority date is eb2 oct 2009. my finger prints were taken on march 31. its been almost six months now. not received EAD/AP. how long does it take for EAD/AP and green card. any one in the same boat or recently received? my application starts with msc.
    finger prints taken march 16th, no EAD/AP. Application filed October 26th

  22. #3047
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    Quote Originally Posted by newsletter1978 View Post
    hello friends, i submitted my i485 back in oct 29 2020. my priority date is eb2 oct 2009. my finger prints were taken on march 31. its been almost six months now. not received EAD/AP. how long does it take for EAD/AP and green card. any one in the same boat or recently received? my application starts with msc.
    Just curious: why did you not file your I-485 way back in 2012 when the priority dates advanced considerably before again retrogressing?
    Green card approved on 6/28/2021
    EB2-India; PD 2/10/2010; I-485 RD 3/22/2012 at TSC; RFE received 05/08/21: I-693 (Medical), "Job Offer Letter", and Biographic info (G-352A). RFE response received by USCIS 6/4/21; Officer # XM2027

  23. #3048
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    I have always wondered and get frustrated at the lack of technology adoption at USCIS. In the current age, it is unacceptable and unforgivable what USCIS puts applicants through. However, I came across this article that shows the efforts USCIS has been putting in to digitize their systems. This celery goes to show that the leadership at the top is so bad that the organization just can’t move forward.

    https://slate.com/technology/2021/04...on-system.html
    H1-B since 2005; EB2I; PD: 12/10; I-485/131/765 RD: 10/29/20; ND: 1/18/21; Biometrics: 3/29/21; EAD: 4/17/2021

  24. #3049
    Quote Originally Posted by nbk1976 View Post
    Just curious: why did you not file your I-485 way back in 2012 when the priority dates advanced considerably before again retrogressing?
    i was in eb3 cat at that time.

  25. #3050
    Just would like to know what experts think:

    Is there any chance of FAD retrogression for EB2/3 India later this FY? If at all that happens, how many months of regression is a possibility?

    Thank you!

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