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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #2926
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    Hello everyone, I have a Sep-2012 PD in EB-2. I haven't downgraded. I am considering a potential move to another employer who will have to restart my gc application from PERM. If I were to stay with my current employer, I assume I'd get a green card in X months (hoping X<24). I don't mind waiting 1-2Y longer than X to get my greencard but would prefer to not wait much longer than that. What are your thoughts on the move, assuming gc is the only factor to be considered.

  2. #2927
    Yoda
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    Quote Originally Posted by Palver View Post
    Hello everyone, I have a Sep-2012 PD in EB-2. I haven't downgraded. I am considering a potential move to another employer who will have to restart my gc application from PERM. If I were to stay with my current employer, I assume I'd get a green card in X months (hoping X<24). I don't mind waiting 1-2Y longer than X to get my greencard but would prefer to not wait much longer than that. What are your thoughts on the move, assuming gc is the only factor to be considered.
    It is a judgement call based on how good the opportunity is. You have to make this decision on your own as you will find differing opinions in this forum. My 2 cents, I find that I am able to cast a wider net now after we cross the 180 days for 485 filed. I do not have my EAD yet, but once I get it, I am able to apply for a lot of good opportunities, I did not qualify before as a H1 applicant.

  3. #2928
    Quote Originally Posted by Palver View Post
    Hello everyone, I have a Sep-2012 PD in EB-2. I haven't downgraded. I am considering a potential move to another employer who will have to restart my gc application from PERM. If I were to stay with my current employer, I assume I'd get a green card in X months (hoping X<24). I don't mind waiting 1-2Y longer than X to get my greencard but would prefer to not wait much longer than that. What are your thoughts on the move, assuming gc is the only factor to be considered.
    You mentioned that you didn’t downgrade but didn’t specify if your employer is not willing to downgrade or it’s your choice. If your employer agrees then I think it is a good option to downgrade. One thing to keep in mind the complete timeline for PERM is around 2 years now a days. Even without downgrade, there is very good chance EB2 dates move to 2012 come this October. Personally I would stay and file AOS and after 180 days I am a free bird. I wouldn’t wait for actual GC. EAD/AP with AC21 is as good as GC.

  4. #2929
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    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    It is a judgement call based on how good the opportunity is. You have to make this decision on your own as you will find differing opinions in this forum. My 2 cents, I find that I am able to cast a wider net now after we cross the 180 days for 485 filed. I do not have my EAD yet, but once I get it, I am able to apply for a lot of good opportunities, I did not qualify before as a H1 applicant.
    Thank you for your reply. I agree it's a judgement call. I guess risk of retrogression if dates move forward was what I was thinking about.

  5. #2930
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    Quote Originally Posted by Transformer View Post
    You mentioned that you didn’t downgrade but didn’t specify if your employer is not willing to downgrade or it’s your choice. If your employer agrees then I think it is a good option to downgrade. One thing to keep in mind the complete timeline for PERM is around 2 years now a days. Even without downgrade, there is very good chance EB2 dates move to 2012 come this October. Personally I would stay and file AOS and after 180 days I am a free bird. I wouldn’t wait for actual GC. EAD/AP with AC21 is as good as GC.
    Thank you. I didn't downgrade because my employer was not willing. Staying is obviously the least risky from a EAD point of view. But even if Perm takes 2 years like you said, if dates don't retrogress I wouldn't consider it too bad. But like with anything immigration, bit of a crapshoot.

  6. #2931
    Yoda
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    Quote Originally Posted by Palver View Post
    Thank you for your reply. I agree it's a judgement call. I guess risk of retrogression if dates move forward was what I was thinking about.
    There is always that risk. I have seen it personally in my family. My sister had a PD of Jan 2003 EB3I and got GC when dates became current in 2007. After that there was a retrogression and 2003 Jan became current again sometime in mid 2013 and she was a citizen by then. It may not be as bad for you if the GC numbers are not wasted. If tonnes of numbers are wasted however you will be waiting quite a while to apply for 485.

  7. #2932
    Ur Jaddou, Nominee for Director of Citizenship and Immigration Services

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-...land-security/

  8. #2933
    Sensei
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    Quote Originally Posted by Transformer View Post
    You mentioned that you didn’t downgrade but didn’t specify if your employer is not willing to downgrade or it’s your choice. If your employer agrees then I think it is a good option to downgrade. One thing to keep in mind the complete timeline for PERM is around 2 years now a days. Even without downgrade, there is very good chance EB2 dates move to 2012 come this October. Personally I would stay and file AOS and after 180 days I am a free bird. I wouldn’t wait for actual GC. EAD/AP with AC21 is as good as GC.
    I seriously hope the PERM processing timeframe improves. This is a major messy area for the many people who changed their jobs.
    Assuming vaccination happens for all, and Biden admin does what is needed, I hope it goes back to the < 1 year timeframe it used to be.

  9. #2934
    Quick question folks. When we get the medical RFE is the online case status updated first? or we just get them all of a sudden through USPS? I want to be aware of what to expect.

  10. #2935
    Quote Originally Posted by Zenzone View Post
    Quick question folks. When we get the medical RFE is the online case status updated first? or we just get them all of a sudden through USPS? I want to be aware of what to expect.
    My case status got updated today and it a RFE update! My PD is EB2I April, 2010 (TSC). I don't know what the RFE is about, but I guess Medical. So if you ask me, the case status gets updated first.
    Last edited by vedu; 04-14-2021 at 01:19 PM.

  11. #2936
    Quote Originally Posted by Zenzone View Post
    Quick question folks. When we get the medical RFE is the online case status updated first? or we just get them all of a sudden through USPS? I want to be aware of what to expect.
    Online update happens first followed by email/text notification if they have been setup. It takes few days (around 4 to 6 business days) for physical copies to reach you.

  12. #2937
    Quote Originally Posted by Palver View Post
    Hello everyone, I have a Sep-2012 PD in EB-2. I haven't downgraded. I am considering a potential move to another employer who will have to restart my gc application from PERM. If I were to stay with my current employer, I assume I'd get a green card in X months (hoping X<24). I don't mind waiting 1-2Y longer than X to get my greencard but would prefer to not wait much longer than that. What are your thoughts on the move, assuming gc is the only factor to be considered.
    Answer the following questions and you will get the direction you want to go.

    How quickly will your new employer file Ads/PERM?
    How good is your relation with your existing employer?
    Will he be interested in continuing your existing process which you can fall back? if things at the new employer is delayed, are you willing to join back?
    PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
    I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
    I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21

  13. #2938
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    Answer the following questions and you will get the direction you want to go.

    How quickly will your new employer file Ads/PERM?
    How good is your relation with your existing employer?
    Will he be interested in continuing your existing process which you can fall back? if things at the new employer is delayed, are you willing to join back?
    Especially the last one is very important. You should have that as a fall back option in case dates move quickly and labor gets delayed with the new employer.

  14. #2939
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    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    Answer the following questions and you will get the direction you want to go.

    How quickly will your new employer file Ads/PERM?
    How good is your relation with your existing employer?
    Will he be interested in continuing your existing process which you can fall back? if things at the new employer is delayed, are you willing to join back?
    Thank you AceMan, incredible. Those are good things to consider. I am confident I can get them (potential new employer) to file PERM quickly. While I have a pretty good relationship with my current employer, it'd probably be a bit of long shot for them to hire me back considering how competitive and fluid the job situation is.

  15. #2940
    Can we please keep this thread strictly for calculations and predictions please?

    For application status, please use that thread.

    For anything else - dive into forum and find appropriate thread or create your own.

    Thank you.
    Last edited by qesehmk; 04-15-2021 at 10:51 AM.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  16. #2941
    Sensei
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    I strongly feel that May visa bulletin will bring dates closer to realistic dates to be achieved by year end.

    With 5-6 months since the hoards of downgrades came, and 3-6 months since all eb2, eb3 applications based on filing date came in, within May or June VB should set the tone for this year.

    I am hoping to see another 4 - 4.5 months movement in both eb2 and eb3. I am not wishing but based on mass downgrades and conservative movement in eb3 so far, I am not confident on EB3 filing date to remain where it is now.

  17. #2942
    Quote Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting View Post
    I strongly feel that May visa bulletin will bring dates closer to realistic dates to be achieved by year end.

    With 5-6 months since the hoards of downgrades came, and 3-6 months since all eb2, eb3 applications based on filing date came in, within May or June VB should set the tone for this year.

    I am hoping to see another 4 - 4.5 months movement in both eb2 and eb3. I am not wishing but based on mass downgrades and conservative movement in eb3 so far, I am not confident on EB3 filing date to remain where it is now.
    I doubt they will touch filing dates in the middle of the year. Till May 2011 it?s all great for both EB2 and EB3 I.... then it starts to get hairy.

  18. #2943
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    Quote Originally Posted by android09 View Post
    I doubt they will touch filing dates in the middle of the year. Till May 2011 it?s all great for both EB2 and EB3 I.... then it starts to get hairy.
    Eb3 filing date was changed mid year already ..From Jan 2015 to Jan 2014. Having said that, I do wish that no more changes like that happens.

  19. #2944
    Quote Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting View Post
    Eb3 filing date was changed mid year already ..From Jan 2015 to Jan 2014. Having said that, I do wish that no more changes like that happens.
    EB3 change from Jan 1, 2015 to Jan 1, 2014 happened in the December visa bulletin. The 3rd visa bulletin for the Fiscal year. It has held firm since then. Given the downgrades happening post May 2011, it?s pretty likely that both EB2 and EB3 I reach a Nash equilibrium and go together or one move up marginally than the other. If that happens, then final action dates may not reach Dec 31, 2013 for EB3 and Perhaps then CO will change the filing dates.

  20. #2945
    USCIS to use AI to pre-process applications.
    https://www.fedscoop.com/uscis-autom...re-processing/
    I think these steps will speed up most cases.

  21. #2946
    Quote Originally Posted by android09 View Post
    EB3 change from Jan 1, 2015 to Jan 1, 2014 happened in the December visa bulletin. The 3rd visa bulletin for the Fiscal year. It has held firm since then. Given the downgrades happening post May 2011, it?s pretty likely that both EB2 and EB3 I reach a Nash equilibrium and go together or one move up marginally than the other. If that happens, then final action dates may not reach Dec 31, 2013 for EB3 and Perhaps then CO will change the filing dates.
    this says possibility and wont be implemented until 2025 the least. providing how they could not even transition to online forms, there is a good chance this goes to shit too

  22. #2947
    Sorry, have been having some issues on the mobile site. Hopefully I am not spamming and apologize if I did.

    As an update, we received the physical copies of the RFEs.
    It's medical and supp j for the primary and medical and g325a for the dependant.
    The lawyer is asking $1600 for each person.
    Did anyone file g325a by themselves as I see it's just one page document?
    Thanks much all.

  23. #2948
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    Hello experts,
    I really feel the personnel on this forum can contribute a lot here:
    https://www.federalregister.gov/docu...s-and-services

    Unfortunately today is the last day to submit. Hopefully a few of the experts here have already submitted their suggestions.

  24. #2949
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    @medatom
    Please submit with attorney don't do your self if it is 1600 also fine you will get GC

  25. #2950
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    Quote Originally Posted by medatom View Post
    Sorry, have been having some issues on the mobile site. Hopefully I am not spamming and apologize if I did.

    As an update, we received the physical copies of the RFEs.
    It's medical and supp j for the primary and medical and g325a for the dependant.
    The lawyer is asking $1600 for each person.
    Did anyone file g325a by themselves as I see it's just one page document?
    Thanks much all.
    You dont need a lawyer for this. I was in the same situation in 2019. Consulted with Murthy and they asked for $2500. Studied the form and all of the data is factual data and not legal analysis.

    You can do this on your and donate to a charity at the end of your journey!
    SC: NSC | PD: 2nd-Oct-2009 |RD: 1-Mar-2012 |ND: 7-Mar-2012 | FP Notice: ?? | EAD/AP : ??

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