EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[incredible]

Does the 180 days rule apply even if the EAD is not approved?

I applied in October, 2020 and did FP in December 2020. But no, EAD yet!

yes I believe so. 180 days from RD of 485. But that being said, you could wait for EAD.

[incredible]

Hello Folks - I have been current since November 2020 with TSC but no action taken on my case since six months. I renewed combo card in November and they issued it for only one year - very generous of them. Now, I have to get ready for my renewal. Shall I apply now at the beginning of 180 days or wait for few more months.


Thanks

With these delays in everything now a days, it is better to apply it at the beginning and hope for the better for both EAD/GC.

[incredible]

I am looking forward to six month forward movement in the final dates for May bulletin. Free bird? not so sure. No freedom to go out to a place without masks.

And most importantly, people are still waiting for GC being current for close to 6 months. Not really sure if these date movements make any sense if they are not able to process it.

[nbk1976]

Does the 180 days rule apply even if the EAD is not approved?

I applied in October, 2020 and did FP in December 2020. But no, EAD yet!

The EAD is nothing to do with the 180-day rule. It?s 180 days from the date USCIS receives the I-485.

[AceMan]

And most importantly, people are still waiting for GC being current for close to 6 months. Not really sure if these date movements make any sense if they are not able to process it.

I have a teenager who has an Indian passport and on H4.
It makes sense for me and many others for whom CSPA will kick in if final dates is current only.

[nbk1976]

Hello Folks - I have been current since November 2020 with TSC but no action taken on my case since six months. I renewed combo card in November and they issued it for only one year - very generous of them. Now, I have to get ready for my renewal. Shall I apply now at the beginning of 180 days or wait for few more months.


Thanks

You have to operate under the presumption that no GC will be forthcoming before the end of the EAD expiry. Always seek any and all immigration benefits when you are eligible.

[vsivarama]

And most importantly, people are still waiting for GC being current for close to 6 months. Not really sure if these date movements make any sense if they are not able to process it.

Why are date movements a big issue? Do you know anyone who is being harmed by the date movements? I only see the movements as positive.

i) Kids are being protected.
ii) CO is being transparent with available visa numbers and not providing cover to USCIS.
iii) The more the transparency then there is a chance to apply pressure on USCIS by contacting congressman/congresswoman.

I have not seen any negatives so far. Maybe I am missing something.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I completely understand the angst everyone is experiencing due to the slowed down receipting, issuing of EAD/APs and GCs but you have to reconcile that with the massive number of applications that were pushed through in Oct-Dec timeframe. Not making any excuses for USCIS, but that is where we are now where they are simply overwhelmed. It looks like they took six months to get close to receipting all the applications. If things don't start moving by say end of April or mid-May, then I will definitely start getting concerned. USCIS has still not got to the level of transparency that DoS has started showing with getting Charlie on YouTube chats, but hopefully we will get there. They could start by releasing the I-485 pending inventory so that we can fulfill the true purpose of this thread in making predictions!

[qesehmk]

Hello Folks - I have been current since November 2020 with TSC but no action taken on my case since six months. I renewed combo card in November and they issued it for only one year - very generous of them. Now, I have to get ready for my renewal. Shall I apply now at the beginning of 180 days or wait for few more months.


Thanks

Looking at your PD normally I would confidently say don't renew. But given the slow progress at TSC, if money is not an issue, yes indeed file right away.

[qesehmk]

I completely understand the angst everyone is experiencing due to the slowed down receipting, issuing of EAD/APs and GCs but you have to reconcile that with the massive number of applications that were pushed through in Oct-Dec timeframe. Not making any excuses for USCIS, but that is where we are now where they are simply overwhelmed. It looks like they took six months to get close to receipting all the applications. If things don't start moving by say end of April or mid-May, then I will definitely start getting concerned. USCIS has still not got to the level of transparency that DoS has started showing with getting Charlie on YouTube chats, but hopefully we will get there. They could start by releasing the I-485 pending inventory so that we can fulfill the true purpose of this thread in making predictions!

Yes indeed. Reserve the judgement until July. We should be seeing en masse approvals in July. If not then I would be super worried.

[phkb2020]

Yes indeed. Reserve the judgement until July. We should be seeing en masse approvals in July. If not then I would be super worried.

I think folks are worried due to the lack of movement on pre adjudicated applications. Usually such applications were approved pretty much in the first week of the month the dates became current. Now a majority of these cases have been waiting at least 3-4 months if not longer to just receive Rfe. This is known inventory for almost a decade.
If I remember correctly the earlier discussions about case processing timelines, USCIS typically requires 6-8 months to process a fresh filing. So new application filed in 2020 will probably reach adjudication in about May/June time-frame. But USCIS got a deluge of applications in October so I expect this timline to stretch longer. This along with the fact that historically even in the best year they didn't process nowhere close to 200k 485 applications, I just don't see them getting anywhere close to 260K. Unless something changes, they are on track for massive wastage this year.

[korlakunta08]

My PD is 2010/02/13wiating for RFE

[montyp80]

Covid giveth and Covid taketh away. If they are still operating under restrictions and have not ramped up staff, there are going to be processing backlogs. I am just thankful to have gotten the chance to apply for I-485 and celebrating that 180 days have crossed and I am free as a bird now .

Yes, I share that feeling. Officially 181 days for me since RD (10.6.20)

But looking at the USCIS efficiency levels, I unfortunately foresee a sizable visa wastage this FY. Would love to be proven wrong by USCIS for once...

[montyp80]

Series 88 - that far? Did you file in October? What is your RD?

Yes, sir!

Filed 10/5/20
RD 10/6/20
ND 10/23/20

[montyp80]

What do these series signify? Mine is MSC219066****

Not sure, but reading through some responses here, it appears that it tentatively tells your if there are any activities happening based on receipt number series.

[montyp80]

Does the 180 days rule apply even if the EAD is not approved?

I applied in October, 2020 and did FP in December 2020. But no, EAD yet!

It clearly shows how random/unorganized things are at USCIS right now, or at least I can't tell if there is any reasoning behind the way things are being processed at these centers.
You filed after me, but received FP request before me and we both are waiting for EAD. However, looking at your PD, chances are that you might get GC directly as others have mentioned on this thread.

[Greentothemoon]

Hello Everyone,
I am also one of the silent follower of this excellent community like many. I have been following Q's forum since 2011. It had guided me to make some big decisions in life. I Can not thank enough everyone for their inputs.
I need help here. My PD is July 10,2010 India in EB2. Due to loos of job I could not file 485 last year. My new employer is now ready to file i140. Should I file in EB3 or EB2? I am asking from the future dates movement perspective. Is there any chance of dates retrograde in eb3? Would I be better off in eb2 or eb3 down the line.
Once again many thanks to everyone for helping out each other.

[android09]

Hello Everyone,
I am also one of the silent follower of this excellent community like many. I have been following Q's forum since 2011. It had guided me to make some big decisions in life. I Can not thank enough everyone for their inputs.
I need help here. My PD is July 10,2010 India in EB2. Due to loos of job I could not file 485 last year. My new employer is now ready to file i140. Should I file in EB3 or EB2? I am asking from the future dates movement perspective. Is there any chance of dates retrograde in eb3? Would I be better off in eb2 or eb3 down the line.
Once again many thanks to everyone for helping out each other.

Shouldnt matter either way. EB2 is in May 2010 right now and EB3 in Sept 2010 per final action dates. For sure dates will easily clear July 2010 PD in both categories(It already has for EB3 and will do so for EB2 in the next couple of weeks). Make sure you are filing I-140 under premium if you can so you can file concurrently for I-485 as well. As for retrogression, well the whole point of the Filing Date and Final Action Date charts was so things like retrogression does not happen or atleast is managed in a predictable way. I think you should be ok with with either. Your position requirements will determine if it is EB2 or EB3.

[vsivarama]

Hello Everyone,
I am also one of the silent follower of this excellent community like many. I have been following Q's forum since 2011. It had guided me to make some big decisions in life. I Can not thank enough everyone for their inputs.
I need help here. My PD is July 10,2010 India in EB2. Due to loos of job I could not file 485 last year. My new employer is now ready to file i140. Should I file in EB3 or EB2? I am asking from the future dates movement perspective. Is there any chance of dates retrograde in eb3? Would I be better off in eb2 or eb3 down the line.
Once again many thanks to everyone for helping out each other.

You are in relatively good shape. You can file either in EB2 or EB3. EB2 has less chances of retrogression purely because it will be getting both vertical and horizontal spillover next year. Even in the worst case of retrogression the dates should be after your PD for the foreseeable future (because of extra numbers next year). Now the decision is mainly for your 485. You have your PD current in this bulletin for EB3 so you can do concurrent filing in EB3 of i140 + i485. For EB2 you need to wait till next bulletin or the time when the FAD is current for you to apply 485. Do make sure to apply with the medicals so that you can avoid an RFE in future.

[qesehmk]

Hello Everyone,
I am also one of the silent follower of this excellent community like many. I have been following Q's forum since 2011. It had guided me to make some big decisions in life. I Can not thank enough everyone for their inputs.
I need help here. My PD is July 10,2010 India in EB2. Due to loos of job I could not file 485 last year. My new employer is now ready to file i140. Should I file in EB3 or EB2? I am asking from the future dates movement perspective. Is there any chance of dates retrograde in eb3? Would I be better off in eb2 or eb3 down the line.
Once again many thanks to everyone for helping out each other.

Green - I think you would be just fine no matter what. But if you insist on knowing - then this is just an opinion - I think anybody in 2009/2010 is better of in EB3 rather than EB2.

[nbk1976]

I think folks are worried due to the lack of movement on pre adjudicated applications. Usually such applications were approved pretty much in the first week of the month the dates became current. Now a majority of these cases have been waiting at least 3-4 months if not longer to just receive Rfe. This is known inventory for almost a decade.
If I remember correctly the earlier discussions about case processing timelines, USCIS typically requires 6-8 months to process a fresh filing. So new application filed in 2020 will probably reach adjudication in about May/June time-frame. But USCIS got a deluge of applications in October so I expect this timline to stretch longer. This along with the fact that historically even in the best year they didn't process nowhere close to 200k 485 applications, I just don't see them getting anywhere close to 260K. Unless something changes, they are on track for massive wastage this year.

So if they do end up wasting hundreds of thousands of visa numbers, and come October 1, everything resets to 0, and will the dates retrogress? Would this mean all those thousands of folks in 2009/2010/2011 etc. will have to wait another 10 years?

[ak7419]

So if they do end up wasting hundreds of thousands of visa numbers, and come October 1, everything resets to 0, and will the dates retrogress? Would this mean all those thousands of folks in 2009/2010/2011 etc. will have to wait another 10 years?

If they waste visa numbers for this fiscal year then come October 1 those pre-adjudicated folks from 2009 will definitely have to wait for new FY - I am not sure that the dates would retrogress. That is my assumption because they would have ran out of visa numbers for new FY and have to start requesting the numbers again. I would be happy if someone can correct me.

[sjayanthi]

Hi all good afternoon/evening. At the cost of getting castigated, I have a question about EB2 Apr 2011 PD and EB1. I am currently outside US and will be eligible for EB1 in Aug (have offer and H1B etc). Due to personal reasons, I would prefer to move to US earlier depending of how EB2 moves in next few months. Given a choice between waiting few additonal months for EB1 or move when (IF) EB2 becomes current, which category is better? (Note: EB1 has a I140 depedency and it can take anywhere between 4-8 months to get approved).

[qesehmk]

Hi all good afternoon/evening. At the cost of getting castigated, I have a question about EB2 Apr 2011 PD and EB1. I am currently outside US and will be eligible for EB1 in Aug (have offer and H1B etc). Due to personal reasons, I would prefer to move to US earlier depending of how EB2 moves in next few months. Given a choice between waiting few additonal months for EB1 or move when (IF) EB2 becomes current, which category is better? (Note: EB1 has a I140 depedency and it can take anywhere between 4-8 months to get approved).

jayanthi you come across like a billionairre asking us little people if you should be wearing prada or fendi? Well Devil you should be wearing Prada. Go for EB1 if it's only a matter of I-140. 4 months will go much quicker than risking USCIS' wasting EB2 visas.

D

[sjayanthi]

Thank you @Q. Nicely put and I enjoyed the pun. Yeah I appreciate what you mentioned, some time helps to reiternate the same point (you said same thing 8 months ago ).