EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[qesehmk]

That is being very humble and modest . You are like Dravid - Humble , Solid and consistent .

This statement on retirement reminds me of a Dilbert Strip - https://dilbert.com/strip/2001-01-11 .

hey i have said this many times - even gods like to be praised - i am just a mortal.

The dilbert is always witty funny. I like this one a lot - "Nobody is said to have died of hard work. But why risk it?".

[gs1968]

Caught off guard due to COVID. Most FB are indeed CP cases. But think about it, the USCIS still has to process them as immigrants at some point of time. Those numbers are in millions. So they definitely have some extra bandwidth now that they are not processing those millions. So this is the bull case for visa utilization. But as I said the 485 times worry me. And i am almost certain they are going to waste visas. Only question is to what degree!

Agreed. A useful proxy for the I-130 volume would be Naturalization statistics which show a 65% decrease in the 3rd quarter of FY2020 the last period for which statistics are available. Generally people tend to apply for all the available relatives in the immediate time period following naturalization. But it is not showing up yet as faster processing times for the I-130

[texas_]

Guys it's been eternal frustrating not scheduled for Fingerprint Appointment yet.
RD - 10/27/2020
MSC -219043XXXX
EB3 I -
Anyone is the same boat or just me ??

Thanks

[vsivarama]

Guys it's been eternal frustrating not scheduled for Fingerprint Appointment yet.
RD - 10/27/2020
MSC -219043XXXX
EB3 I -
Anyone is the same boat or just me ??

Thanks

+1. I think there are thousands of others on the same boat. My friend had RD Oct 20th and still waiting on FP Appointment.

[Djidondon]

Even if a company withdraws an i140, if you rejoin them they can always file to reinstate it as I understand. No need to go through the PERM process. It's basically your call if you want to stick around for a few more months to find out. There is always a chance you will get another good opportunity in the future.

Yes I think current employer can reinstate I-140 but current employer would not allow me to join back if I leave now.. I?m thinking to wait until Oct 2021 visa bulletin and see if the luck favors for me PD Nov 2016 to become current in chart B filling dates under EB3I to file AOS if there is an opportunity with the spillover.

[texas_]

Thanks for the response Brother.
It is even more frustrating when my PD will become current next month.

Is there a way I can expedite schedule Biometric appt when PD is current ?

[rocketfast]

According to Appendix A in USCIS annual report at [1], USCIS approved 281,400 Family based I-485 last year.

I also see based on chinese telegram groups that crawl USCIS case status every day that USCIS still approves a lot of family based I-485. So, is it correct to say that USCIS gets a lot of immediate relative I-485 applications? And it is mostly the numerically limited (226,000) FB applications that go to consulates?

[1]: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ual-Report.pdf

[vsivarama]

Thanks for the response Brother.
It is even more frustrating when my PD will become current next month.

Is there a way I can expedite schedule Biometric appt when PD is current ?

Unfortunately NO.

[gs1968]

According to Appendix A in USCIS annual report at [1], USCIS approved 281,400 Family based I-485 last year.

I also see based on chinese telegram groups that crawl USCIS case status every day that USCIS still approves a lot of family based I-485. So, is it correct to say that USCIS gets a lot of immediate relative I-485 applications? And it is mostly the numerically limited (226,000) FB applications that go to consulates?

[1]: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ual-Report.pdf

Thanks for the link
The process is the same for IR and FB and starts with the I-130 .This form establishes the family relationship that exists between the petitioner and the relative.This step is handled by the USCIS. Once
approved there are two pathways
If the relative is already in the United States, they may apply to adjust status to become a Green Card holder (lawful permanent resident) after a visa number becomes available using Form I-485.
If the relative is outside the United States, the petition will be sent to the National Visa Center (NVC). The NVC will forward the petition to the appropriate U.S. consulate when a visa becomes available and the relative will be notified about how to proceed. (consular processing)

The USCIS is involved in both streams at the outset.Obviously the only difference is that there is no waiting time for IR categories.Generally the lawyers encourage consular processing because the Consular officials do not have power of discretion. In other words if one is eligible for an immigrant visa and all documents are in order they have to grant the visa and rejection rates are extremely low.The USCIS (if one chooses the AOS route by virtue of being already present here) on the other hand can reject the immigrant visas for a variety of reasons (intent to immigrate on a B1 application or during entry inspection being concealed). I am not sure of the exact rejection rates during AOS but few people are willing to take the risk especially when CP is fairly straightforward (except now due to COVID but that will change)

[Djidondon]

https://www.murthy.com/2019/12/26/ho...pproved-i-140/

How long is it since they filed your I-140. I think you either are too risk averse or just looking to stay back. Moveon dude.
From Murthy.com
Can the Petitioner Revoke My Approved I-140?

Ordinarily, the I-140 petitioning employer may send a withdrawal notice to the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) at any time. However, once 180 days have passed following approval of the I-140 petition, the USCIS will not revoke the I-140 petition solely based on the petitioner’s request for the withdrawal of the petition.

If the USCIS receives the employer’s withdrawal request within 180 days of the I-140 petition approval, the USCIS will revoke the approved I-140. In this situation, the employee / beneficiary still gets to retain the priority date, unless the revocation was determined to be due to fraud, willful misrepresentation or material error by the USCIS, or the underlying labor certification was invalid or revoked.

Thank you for taking time in responding to me, I think Nov 2016 would become current in chart B filling dates for EB3I and I can apply AOS after oct 2021 visa bulletin if there is huge spillover for FY2022 EB

[krisswaves]

If not this Fiscal , the calendar year seems quite certain .

Thanks for the response Moveon

[AceMan]

Thank you for taking time in responding to me, I think Nov 2016 would become current in chart B filling dates for EB3I and I can apply AOS after oct 2021 visa bulletin if there is huge spillover for FY2022 EB

Hope for the best case scenario. Prepare yourself for the worst case. Most of us here are experts in handling disappointments dished out to us over and over by USCIS/DHS/ Admins

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I thought I saw someone post about processing times but don't see the message, TSC NSC and NBC are all showing max of 51.5 months processing times now... check in the EB-I-485 columns at the bottom.

[kumareb2]

I have been watching this forum for the last 5 years and got so much information and learned about the GC process. finally, today got an email saying New Card is Being produced.
Just for the record, I am a 2012 filer, and my priority date was 12/16/2009. Thanks, Q, Spec, Aceman & Turbulent_drangly for sharing your knowledge and uplifting posts. I really appreciate it.

[gs1968]

I have been watching this forum for the last 5 years and got so much information and learned about the GC process. finally, today got an email saying New Card is Being produced.
Just for the record, I am a 2012 filer, and my priority date was 12/16/2009. Thanks, Q, Spec, Aceman & Turbulent_drangly for sharing your knowledge and uplifting posts. I really appreciate it.

Congratulations
If your priority date is 2009 then you must have been in this country for approximately 15 years to get to this point. Enjoy the sweet moment

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I have been watching this forum for the last 5 years and got so much information and learned about the GC process. finally, today got an email saying New Card is Being produced.
Just for the record, I am a 2012 filer, and my priority date was 12/16/2009. Thanks, Q, Spec, Aceman & Turbulent_drangly for sharing your knowledge and uplifting posts. I really appreciate it.

Congrats! Hope you get to explore greener pastures!

[kumareb2]

Congratulations
If your priority date is 2009 then you must have been in this country for approximately 15 years to get to this point. Enjoy the sweet moment

Thank you. Its a long journey. My GC process started in 2007 october, and the day my petion was about to be filed the first layoff in our goup happend. The company's HR told me to wait for another 6 months, again, same thing happend till dec 09. Every quater i was happy because i had a job, and un-happy because due to layoffs in the compnay no GC filing...Finally they applied in dec'09.

[Moveon]

Hope for the best case scenario. Prepare yourself for the worst case. Most of us here are experts in handling disappointments dished out to us over and over by USCIS/DHS/ Admins

How true . "Disappointment" and "After Thought" should be our new middle name .

[Moveon]

Thank you. Its a long journey. My GC process started in 2007 october, and the day my petion was about to be filed the first layoff in our goup happend. The company's HR told me to wait for another 6 months, again, same thing happend till dec 09. Every quater i was happy because i had a job, and un-happy because due to layoffs in the compnay no GC filing...Finally they applied in dec'09.

Kind of my story and I guess a lot of us. We would hope that they would file the GC in 6 months and there you go, like clock work they would announce a layoff. I suppose they did that to avoid filing GCs and also spread the losses to balance the books . If you worked in a very large company you realize that its only "Share Holder Value " that matters. Nothing else

[cool_guy_2004]

Congratulations - may i know what was your service center?

[cool_guy_2004]

Can we do anything about TSC delays? A law suit or complaining to OMB office or senators??? Any suggestions?

[kumareb2]

service center is nebraska

[kumareb2]

service center is nebraska

Also, Two of my other colleagues having the same priority date approved two days apart as well. We all got the RFE on dec'2020 and responded on Feb'21 first week.

[Moveon]

Can we do anything about TSC delays? A law suit or complaining to OMB office or senators??? Any suggestions?

Reach out to your Members of Congress - Congressman/CongressWoman . They can help put pressure

[Wizoz2]

Reach out to your Members of Congress - Congressman/CongressWoman . They can help put pressure

I got current recently and my service center is TSC, beginning to feel frustrated with the wait for RFE already. I can totally get why people with late 2009 PDs are so frustrated when NSC is approving cases left , right and center. Am thinking of reaching out to my member of congress if nothing happens within 90 days. Feel sorry for the guys waiting to hear back for the last 6 months or more.