EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[AceMan]

I do not see any possibility of your date being current in EB2I in FY2022. There is a marginal chance in EB3, but that would depend on the number downgrades to EB3 from 2011 to 2014 and the number of GCs issued in FY 2021. If they come close to using up all the GC numbers this year then yes, you have a chance for Nov 2016 in EB3I. It's very difficult to predict this without additional data from USCIS. You can take a chance with the new job and come back to your current employer if the filing dates become current if that's an option. Even if 2011 is cleared for EB2 and EB3 this FY there will be close to 175K primary applicants (not counting the dependents) before you waiting for a GC. Take a look at this i140 approval chart (page 2).

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ry_FY09_19.pdf

I think you are thinking too much. It’s a very remote possibility for 2016 date to be current even in next FY. If the opportunity is good go ahead and grab it. It’s judgement call.

Guys, don't be hope killers. I am happy that a November 2016 PD holder is "very worried" in March 2021, that he might get his filing date current in October 2021. Is it not what we all wanted with HR 3012 to HR 1044?

I think you both recall the monkey story I shared. Nobody is electrocuting us, let him reach for the prize.

[Immigo]

Hi, I have a priority date of June 2011 (EB2-India). I left my previous employer (with whom I have the approved I-140) in 2016. One of the VPs with my previous employer is willing to sign the I-485j, after my date gets current. He can attach a letter from HR showing he is currently employed with the previous employer. I will not be able to get HR to sign I-485j. I am open to the idea of going back to the previous employer after I-485 is approved. Request your inputs to check:
1) If I will definitely get an I-485j RFE since I am not employed with that employer ?
2) Who will the RFE be sent to ? HR of previous employer, VP who signed I-485j or to me ?
3) While I am sure about my intent to join my previous previous employer, is there any reason if I-485j or I-485 will be rejected (or I-140 revoked), especially on account for fraud. I do not want to have any impact on my priority date.

My current employer has also starting the PERM processing - prevailing wage is expected to be determined in next 2 weeks. Likely scenario for PERM approval appears to be in at least another 10-12 months. Should I just wait for the PERM process to complete with my current employer ?

[omgano]

Definitely a positive news from CO, But are the other immigration division ready to drink from the firehose? USCIS, Biometrics, Interviews, Background checks e.t.c

Remember the fact that getting EAD printed delayed 1m+ ead card delivery. Some silver lining is the dates won't retrogress in 2022 with these additional spillovers and consular closings.

[Wizoz2]

This user is correct. Processing times for TSC have increased from 12.5 - 31.5 to now 12.5 - 51.5.

Holy cow!

https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...page/last_page

https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/

Is this in response to Charlie's comments??!

I cannot understand why they cannot start sending out RFEs so applicants can atleast start collecting paperwork and mailing responses back. That will still give them enough time to get ramped up with resourcing for the RFEs. Or atleast do some load balancing and transfer to NSC. They appear to be clearing people fast.

[gcconnect]

Guys, don't be hope killers. I am happy that a November 2016 PD holder is "very worried" in March 2021, that he might get his filing date current in October 2021. Is it not what we all wanted with HR 3012 to HR 1044?

I think you both recall the monkey story I shared. Nobody is electrocuting us, let him reach for the prize.

AceMan - I am really enjoying this kind of discussions. I still remember before OCT 2020, the discussions were very different. God knows what is going to happen in the future, but HOPE is very very important in life.
what we faced for the last 5 years may not be the case in the future and will be optimistic in terms of date movements.

[Djidondon]

I think you are thinking too much. It?s a very remote possibility for 2016 date to be current even in next FY. If the opportunity is good go ahead and grab it. It?s judgement call.

Hi Transformer I was only thinking about being current in filling dates for EB2I or EB3I for October 2021 visa bulletin by that I can apply for AOS and be on EAD if the PD Nov 2016 is current on Chart B filling dates.

I believe there is no possibility for Nov 2016 to become current in Final action dates for at least next few years I?m hoping for filling dates to become current by that I can do AOS and be on EAD.

[Moveon]

I think you are thinking too much. It’s a very remote possibility for 2016 date to be current even in next FY. If the opportunity is good go ahead and grab it. It’s judgement call.

I would second this . You need to go with your gut here. If the opportunity is good , go for it as your dates going on the bulletin are remote. Don't miss a career opportunity given that the chances of going current are very thin . Its a risk vs benefits analysis - "nothing ventured nothing gained " .

[Moveon]

AceMan - I am really enjoying this kind of discussions. I still remember before OCT 2020, the discussions were very different. God knows what is going to happen in the future, but HOPE is very very important in life.
what we faced for the last 5 years may not be the case in the future and will be optimistic in terms of date movements.

My advice to all - If it is a good career move go for it unless you are very confident that the dates will go to atleast filing date in the next 9-12 months . I have a couple of friends in the Bay area who are waiting to recapture 2010 dates as they changed employers about 9 months ago knowing that they could file AOS this fiscal. Both their companies could go IPO in a ~year and could life changing event for them. The GC will come , but their calculated risk will definitely payoff from the way these two late stage startups are performing .
One of the most profitable industries are Insurance Companies - And guess what they pay with every second - RISK! .

[Djidondon]

If you stay back your employer will file for AOS if your filing dates are current in October 21. That is from your immigration perspective. You stand a chance to get your EAD in 2022 around same time, and with EAD you have more avenues open if the dates move as you expect.

If you are prioritizing immediately on career, you will pick up the job offer, do your PERM at the first possible instance, and you will be able to file for your 140, some time after 1 year.

You could leave your current employer in good terms, and will a possibility of joining him back in October 21 if filing dates really advance past your PD. This would be the best of both worlds for you.

AceMan, I wish that could be an option for me but unfortunately my current employer will withdraw I-140 and would not support me in any manner though if I leave him in good terms.

From immigration perspective you framed it here for everything I was thinking about filling dates to move forward until Nov 2016 in EB3I and get a chance for AOS.

I understand this is a one time opportunity to apply for AOS where folks in EB3I PD 2014 would not have even thought they would become current in Chart B filling dates in Oct and Nov 2020 visa bulletins and file AOS and I guess the similar kind of forward movement might happen for EB3I filling dates in Oct 2021 as well with 275k visa number predictions for EB category.

[gc092011]

Based on CO comments yesterday is there a chance EB2I FA dates move beyond May 2011 (to end of 2011/2012 starting) this fiscal year? Or will it be only after Oct VB.

[vsivarama]

This might be most agreeable post of yours for me after some shadow boxing few weeks back. It was obvious that in October 2020 EAD was a bird in hand and there was no information that Eb1 India will be current by the end of 2nd quarter. I am happy that you got the gist of comment regarding interfile.

But in future if Eb2 moves fast you have every reason to utilize the available path which can get your GC faster. Don?t worry, I will still be throwing darts to show my displeasure at it. Good luck dear, once we get GC we should have an alumni meet of Q - 20s for people greened in this decade.

I still believe that I am may be current in EB3 sooner than EB2. Even if not may be lagging by a couple of bulletins. Don't want to file interfile and complicate my case especially with the superfast response times from SRC. If it comes out to 6 months and greater difference then I may consider it. If we all get greened the alumni of Q - 20s will be something. I bet everyone of us will have a drama, suspense thriller story to tell which could be made into a movie.

[vsivarama]

AceMan, I wish that could be an option for me but unfortunately my current employer will withdraw I-140 and would not support me in any manner though if I leave him in good terms.

Even if a company withdraws an i140, if you rejoin them they can always file to reinstate it as I understand. No need to go through the PERM process. It's basically your call if you want to stick around for a few more months to find out. There is always a chance you will get another good opportunity in the future.

[Moveon]

AceMan, I wish that could be an option for me but unfortunately my current employer will withdraw I-140 and would not support me in any manner though if I leave him in good terms.

From immigration perspective you framed it here for everything I was thinking about filling dates to move forward until Nov 2016 in EB3I and get a chance for AOS.

I understand this is a one time opportunity to apply for AOS where folks in EB3I PD 2014 would not have even thought they would become current in Chart B filling dates in Oct and Nov 2020 visa bulletins and file AOS and I guess the similar kind of forward movement might happen for EB3I filling dates in Oct 2021 as well with 275k visa number predictions for EB category.

https://www.murthy.com/2019/12/26/ho...pproved-i-140/

How long is it since they filed your I-140. I think you either are too risk averse or just looking to stay back. Moveon dude.
From Murthy.com
Can the Petitioner Revoke My Approved I-140?

Ordinarily, the I-140 petitioning employer may send a withdrawal notice to the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) at any time. However, once 180 days have passed following approval of the I-140 petition, the USCIS will not revoke the I-140 petition solely based on the petitioner’s request for the withdrawal of the petition.

If the USCIS receives the employer’s withdrawal request within 180 days of the I-140 petition approval, the USCIS will revoke the approved I-140. In this situation, the employee / beneficiary still gets to retain the priority date, unless the revocation was determined to be due to fraud, willful misrepresentation or material error by the USCIS, or the underlying labor certification was invalid or revoked.

[gs1968]

LoL !! Now I am really curious about your background!!

It was just a divine moment of pure inspiration! However the point I was trying to make was in response to what I read a lot on twitter yesterday evening. The talk was about 7K visas being wasted last year and hence this year there will be 262K-7K=255K GCs being issued. I could not understand the logic for this argument. If they could not even get to 156K how are they going to get to 262K? To do this there must be a dramatic infusion of manpower/infrastructure/will or a significant decrease in scrutiny and due diligence on their part. I am not entirely sure we have seen evidence of either. I am not sure that there is any wilful intent to slow down but a lot of applications have been languishing for so long due to the country caps that there will be definitely be a lot of RFEs to determine compliance.

[krisswaves]

Hi All, my PD is in Aug-2011 in EB2, based on CO's session from yesterday, any chances that my date will be current in Final action or Filing date this FY in EB2. Thanks

[gs1968]

There are a few things to watch out for, including the fact that Democrats included a provision to keep FB visas in FB in their CARES act last year which passed the House. If something like that gets passed or included in another bill that passes, we won't see the extra visas. Plus with the pandemic coming to an end, we will see increased filings from EB ROW, including from pent up demand at the consulates.

You make a good point. Rep.Grace Meng had introduced that Bill last year and was not included in any of the must pass Bills later in the year. We have to watch in the month of September when the current budget expires and there might be a stopgap extension or omnibus that might include this language. Another possibility that Greg Siskind had mentioned was that CO could make some FB categories current especially Mexico if he feels that the USCIS is not utilizing spillovers efficiently. The problem with this approach is that the AOS applicants in the FB status will have to go through the USCIS and may not complete the process in time before Sept 30 to cout towards this year's cap. As of now 123 out of the 145 embassies that issue Immigrant visas are open although each one is functioning at a different level

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

You make a good point. Rep.Grace Meng had introduced that Bill last year and was not included in any of the must pass Bills later in the year. We have to watch in the month of September when the current budget expires and there might be a stopgap extension or omnibus that might include this language. Another possibility that Greg Siskind had mentioned was that CO could make some FB categories current especially Mexico if he feels that the USCIS is not utilizing spillovers efficiently. The problem with this approach is that the AOS applicants in the FB status will have to go through the USCIS and may not complete the process in time before Sept 30 to cout towards this year's cap. As of now 123 out of the 145 embassies that issue Immigrant visas are open although each one is functioning at a different level

No immigration provisions are going to pass independently or included in any other measures any time soon. Republicans have seized upon the border crisis (yes, it is a inhumane crisis) and will use that as leverage for the foreseeable future. Durbin is once again going to be left holding the bag even on his pet project of DACA.

[qesehmk]

It was just a divine moment of pure inspiration! However the point I was trying to make was in response to what I read a lot on twitter yesterday evening. The talk was about 7K visas being wasted last year and hence this year there will be 262K-7K=255K GCs being issued. I could not understand the logic for this argument. If they could not even get to 156K how are they going to get to 262K? To do this there must be a dramatic infusion of manpower/infrastructure/will or a significant decrease in scrutiny and due diligence on their part. I am not entirely sure we have seen evidence of either. I am not sure that there is any wilful intent to slow down but a lot of applications have been languishing for so long due to the country caps that there will be definitely be a lot of RFEs to determine compliance.

I thought about it and my uncertain "view" is that last year USCIS sort of was caught off guard. But this year they should be able to repurpose their capacity from FB to EB. But I still would think that they will show the same level of uselessness that they exibited last year and hence 12K wastage instead of 7K. That's what I asked WhereismyGC to assume.

The 485 processing times could be the harbinger of such underusage. As of now the little evidence we have definitely points to underusage. Biden admin has been removing the roadblocks trump admin had put up and so it will take some time for USCIS to get to speed. But i too am skeptical if they can indeed use the full quota (which will be utterly cruel to all the backlogged people; but the law unfortunately does not mandate USCIS to use all those visas).

[Moveon]

Hi All, my PD is in Aug-2011 in EB2, based on CO's session from yesterday, any chances that my date will be current in Final action or Filing date this FY in EB2. Thanks

If not this Fiscal , the calendar year seems quite certain .

[gs1968]

I thought about it and my uncertain "view" is that last year USCIS sort of was caught off guard. But this year they should be able to repurpose their capacity from FB to EB. But I still would think that they will show the same level of uselessness that they exibited last year and hence 12K wastage instead of 7K. That's what I asked WhereismyGC to assume.

The 485 processing times could be the harbinger of such underusage. As of now the little evidence we have definitely points to underusage. Biden admin has been removing the roadblocks trump admin had put up and so it will take some time for USCIS to get to speed. But i too am skeptical if they can indeed use the full quota (which will be utterly cruel to all the backlogged people; but the law unfortunately does not mandate USCIS to use all those visas).

I am not sure that they were necessarily caught off guard. They knew the spillover from FB FY2019 to EB FY2020 was 16K for a total of 156K in October 2019 (well before the pandemic) Spec usually says that they get notification from DOS the following May every year but even then they let those visas go waste. What is even more cruel is that EB2 India according to Spec's numbers did not even get to 2800 GCs in EB2. I am not so sure that they are willfully holding back but I think they are only set up to handle so many cases a year if they perform due diligence on every case
As I mentioned in a previous post the USCIS only handles the first stage of most FB applications (I-130) and the processing times for those have not changed much since last year to indicate a slowdown. In fact some of the FB categories have gone up. The USCIS is only involved afterwards if there is an AOS but this is a small percentage as this is generally discouraged by lawyers.

[qesehmk]

I am not sure that they were necessarily caught off guard. They knew the spillover from FB FY2019 to EB FY2020 was 16K for a total of 156K in October 2019 (well before the pandemic) Spec usually says that they get notification from DOS the following May every year but even then they let those visas go waste. What is even more cruel is that EB2 India according to Spec's numbers did not even get to 2800 GCs in EB2. I am not so sure that they are willfully holding back but I think they are only set up to handle so many cases a year if they perform due diligence on every case
As I mentioned in a previous post the USCIS only handles the first stage of most FB applications (I-130) and the processing times for those have not changed much since last year to indicate a slowdown. In fact some of the FB categories have gone up. The USCIS is only involved afterwards if there is an AOS but this is a small percentage as this is generally discouraged by lawyers.

Caught off guard due to COVID. Most FB are indeed CP cases. But think about it, the USCIS still has to process them as immigrants at some point of time. Those numbers are in millions. So they definitely have some extra bandwidth now that they are not processing those millions. So this is the bull case for visa utilization. But as I said the 485 times worry me. And i am almost certain they are going to waste visas. Only question is to what degree!

[ImmiGiveMe]

Been a silent follower of this blog and specifically this thread. Thanks to all the admins and gurus for their insights and suggestions to everyone's queries.
---EB2I, PD 03/19/2012.

[Moveon]

Caught off guard due to COVID. Most FB are indeed CP cases. But think about it, the USCIS still has to process them as immigrants at some point of time. Those numbers are in millions. So they definitely have some extra bandwidth now that they are not processing those millions. So this is the bull case for visa utilization. But as I said the 485 times worry me. And i am almost certain they are going to waste visas. Only question is to what degree!

Hey Q , you are 4 away from 5000 posts . Biggest run getter .

[qesehmk]

Hey Q , you are 4 away from 5000 posts . Biggest run getter .

i am like Mohindar Amaranath. Not the best batsman but i stick around while everybody retires

[Moveon]

i am like Mohindar Amaranath. Not the best batsman but i stick around while everybody retires

That is being very humble and modest . You are like Dravid - Humble , Solid and consistent .

This statement on retirement reminds me of a Dilbert Strip - https://dilbert.com/strip/2001-01-11 .