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Thread: Bills, Rules & Politics

  1. #1151
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Thank you abcx. I will check again. Can somebody else put forth their simplified view of what meng amendment actually proposes? The more views we have the better.
    From what I read, it says the SO from FB to EB for FY 21 and 22 should be set o zero and those shud be given back to FB and retained until they are actually used. Hence, the retroactive part makes this very questionable as FB SO for 2021 will be used by EB this year (although not 100% to account for wastage). So how can you retroactively set the SO to zero.

  2. #1152
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    I recall an attempt to insert country cap removal in appropriations bill last year or the year before with no success. I suspect USCIS is not going to process more than 140K visas for 2021.
    Likely the will process somewhere around 160-180K visas imo. this fiscal.

  3. #1153
    Quote Originally Posted by Zenzone View Post
    I think you might be mixing up reconciliation vs. new appropriations. This amendment is sitting in the new appropriations bill which will require filibuster if I?m not wrong. Also, its not ?small? ammendment because the Senate Parlimentarian reviews and strikes down items in the reconciliation bills that don?t confirm to Byrd?s rule and other limitations on what can be thrown into such omnibus bills. These bills have a very narrow scope. Durbin?s ammendment last year was struck down by tge parlimentarian for example.
    Which is why I said if the appropriations bill is packaged as a reconciliation bill. The appropriations bill by itself will likely not pass, not because of the trivial amendment, but well the republican's never agree to any budget numbers of Dems. So to circumvent that the dems could use a mechanism that requires simple majority. Byrd's rule is quite open to interpretation and many latently related items in the past have made it through the omnibus bills. A case could be made here since the amendment is specifically related to covid issues. Durbin's amendment didn't make it through, imo, is because, one, the senate republicans were reviewing it, and two, because it was a separate disjointed issue about gc backlogs and not directly related to any covid hardships.

    In any case, as with most things in the immigrant world, it's speculation at this point. I guess we'll know soon enough what comes out of it.
    Last edited by gammaray; 07-14-2021 at 10:41 AM.

  4. #1154
    Quote Originally Posted by gammaray View Post
    Which is why I said if the appropriations bill is packaged as a reconciliation bill. The appropriations bill by itself will likely not pass, not because of the trivial amendment, but well the republican's never agree to any budget numbers of Dems. So to circumvent that the dems could use a mechanism that requires simple majority. Byrd's rule is quite open to interpretation and many latently related items in the past have made it through the omnibus bills. A case could be made here since the amendment is specifically related to covid issues. Durbin's amendment didn't make it through, imo, is because, one, the senate republicans were reviewing it, and two, because it was a separate disjointed issue about gc backlogs and not directly related to any covid hardships.

    In any case, as with most things in the immigrant world, it's speculation at this point. I guess we'll know soon enough what comes out of it.
    You can't package discretionary items in the budget reconciliation bill and Durbin's amendment was not removed the GOP instead by the Parliamentarian. In the past those things got struck down except a precedence in 2005 when a re-capture made it to the bill but ultimately didn't make it post passing when concessions were made before implementation. Regardless, this will not be signed into law atleast until Jan next year as such due to timelines and schedules and piecemeal funding bills will be avoiding a shut down post October through the time the omnibus recon bill passes. So the first quarter of next fiscal won't be impacted either, IMO.
    Last edited by Zenzone; 07-14-2021 at 10:51 AM.

  5. #1155
    Dems are going to save the reconciliation for the massive $3.5T Infrastructure bill and will be very careful not to poison it with anything else as it's Biden's pet project. IMHO the DHS bill will be stripped off the immigration amendments before passage.
    GC Approved 7/29/2021

  6. #1156
    Even if all this happens, USCIS already struggled and is struggling to process all the applications for the last 2 years and how can they be all allocated and processed in 2022? wouldn't that be more burden on them to consume the numbers for FY2022 (140 regular EB + Meng's recapture of 20 & 21). This would mean lots more wastage than efficient recapture. We all know how USCIS will treat this scenario. They will waste it saying processing capacity limits, etc. and waste much more numbers.

  7. #1157
    Quote Originally Posted by FlowerPot View Post
    Even if all this happens, USCIS already struggled and is struggling to process all the applications for the last 2 years and how can they be all allocated and processed in 2022? wouldn't that be more burden on them to consume the numbers for FY2022 (140 regular EB + Meng's recapture of 20 & 21). This would mean lots more wastage than efficient recapture. We all know how USCIS will treat this scenario. They will waste it saying processing capacity limits, etc. and waste much more numbers.
    This is just a game for them. Once the filing dates are opened up, people will just file in droves and they will reap the application fees and sit on them for a couple of years. That's why more than anytime it is now imperative that people don't worry about being on EAD/AP and make full use of it to travel freely without worrying about visa stamping and look toward progressing in their careers by using AC21. This is especially true of 2015+ folks as there were massive applications in 2016.
    GC Approved 7/29/2021

  8. #1158
    Quote Originally Posted by FlowerPot View Post
    Even if all this happens, USCIS already struggled and is struggling to process all the applications for the last 2 years and how can they be all allocated and processed in 2022? wouldn't that be more burden on them to consume the numbers for FY2022 (140 regular EB + Meng's recapture of 20 & 21). This would mean lots more wastage than efficient recapture. We all know how USCIS will treat this scenario. They will waste it saying processing capacity limits, etc. and waste much more numbers.
    The amendment doesn't call out for all unused visas to be processed in 2022 itself. It's allows for the carryover to extend beyond 2022 till all the numbers are consumed.

  9. #1159
    Quote Originally Posted by abcx13 View Post
    Q - I don't think it will actually allocate unused visas proportionally to EB and FB. I think it will allocate unused FY20+FY21 EB to EB in FY22 and unused FY20+FY21 FB to FB in FY22. FY20 FB-> FY21 EB SO that is unused by the time the bill passes also goes back to FB.
    Quote Originally Posted by Zenzone View Post
    From what I read, it says the SO from FB to EB for FY 21 and 22 should be set o zero and those shud be given back to FB and retained until they are actually used. Hence, the retroactive part makes this very questionable as FB SO for 2021 will be used by EB this year (although not 100% to account for wastage). So how can you retroactively set the SO to zero.

    So here is the language and trying to simplify it: BLUE color mine.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------


    SEC. . (a) Notwithstanding any other provision
    6 of law, beginning in fiscal year 2022, the worldwide level
    7 of family-sponsored immigrants under subsection ( c) of
    8 section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8
    9 U.S.C. 1151) and the worldwide level of employment-
    10 based immigrants under subsection (d) of such section
    11 shall each be increased by the number computed under
    12 subsection (b) of this section with respect to each of such
    13 worldwide levels.

    For year 2022 for EB and FB each the level of immigration should be increased by b where b is defined as follow:
    The increased level for each EB and FB can be called as A



    14 (b) For each of the worldwide levels described in sub-
    15 section (a) of this section, the number computed under
    16 this subsection is the difference (if any) between the sum
    g:\V\E\071221 \E071221.026.xml
    July 12, 2021 (12:44 p.m.)
    (80922615) G:\M\l 7\MENG\MENG_053.XML
    2
    1 of the worldwide levels established under the applicable
    2 subsection of section 201 of the Immigration and Nation-
    3 ality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151) for fiscal years 2020 and 2021
    4 and the number of visas that were issued and used as the
    5 basis for an application for admission into the United
    6 States as an immigrant described in the applicable sub-
    7 section during such fiscal years.

    b is defined for each FB and EB separately as b = visa level as established for 2020 + 2021 - visas used during 2020 and 2021

    8 ( c) The Secretary of State, in consultation with the
    9 Secretary of Homeland Security, shall allocate the visas
    10 made available as a result of the computation under sub-
    11 section (b) on a proportional basis consistent with sub-
    12 sections (a) and (b) of section 203 of the Immigration and
    13 Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(a) and (b)), and in accord-
    14 ance with subsection (e)(l) of such section (8 U.S.C.
    15 1153(e)(l)).

    Then level A should be distributed across sub categories according to the established usual formula.

    16 (d) Each visa made available as a result of the com-
    17 putation made under subsection (b) of this section shall
    18 remain available for use in fiscal year 2022 or any subse-
    19 quent fiscal year, until the Secretary of State, in consulta-
    20 tion with the Secretary of Homeland Security, determines
    21 that such visa has been issued and used as the basis for
    22 an application for admission into the United States.

    Visas under A should be available during 2022 as well as any future year. i.e. extra visas will spill from FB to FB and EB to EB only for year 2022 visas.

    23 (e) For fiscal year 2021 and 2022, the number com-
    24 puted under subsection (c)(3)(C) of section 201 of the Im-
    25 migration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151), and the
    g:\V\E\071221\E071221.026.xml
    July 12, 2021 (12:44 p.m.)
    (80922615) G:\M\l 7\MENG\MENG_053.XML
    3
    1 number computed under subsection (d)(2)(C) of such sec-
    2 tion, are deemed to equal zero.
    Spillover for year 2021 and 2022 from FB to EB and vice versa is ZERO. (i.e. any unused EB from 2021 stays in EB)

    3 (f) Notwithstanding section 204(a)(l)(I)(ii)(II) of the
    4 Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C.
    5 1154(a)(l)(I)(ii)(II)), and subject to subsection (i) of this
    6 section, an immigrant visa for those selected in accordance
    7 with section 203(e)(2) of the Immigration and Nationality
    8 Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(e)(2)) in fiscal year 2020 or 2021
    9 shall remain available to such alien if, because of restric-
    10 tions or limitations on visa processing, visa issuance, trav-
    11 el, or other effects associated with the COVID-19 public
    12 health emergency-
    13 ( 1) the alien was unable to receive a visa inter-
    14 view despite submitting an Online Immigrant Visa
    15 and Alien Registration Application (Form DS-260)
    16 to the Secretary of State; or
    17 (2) the alien was unable to seek admission or
    18 was denied admission to the United States despite
    19 being approved for a visa under section 203(c) of
    20 the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C.
    21 1153(c)).
    If diversity visas were announced then they should be issued those visas out of respective years. (2020 or 2021). This obviously then affects calculation of A.

    22 (g) Not later than 90 days after the date of the enact-
    23 ment of this section, the Secretary of State shall-
    24 ( 1) provide written notice consistent with sub-
    25 section (h) to each alien described in subsection (f)
    g:\V\E\071221 \E071221.026.xml (80922615)
    July 12, 2021 (12:44 p.m.) G:\M\l 7\MENG\MENG_053.XML
    4
    1 (and such alien's representative, if applicable) of
    2 their continuing eligibility to apply for a visa under
    3 section 203(c) of the Immigration and Nationality
    4 Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(c)); and
    5 (2) publish on the Department of State website,
    6 information and procedures implementing this sec-
    7 tion.
    8 (h) The notice described in subsection (g) (1) shall in-
    9 elude procedures for the alien to inform the Secretary of
    10 State of the alien's intent to proceed with or abandon the
    11 application, and shall include an advisal that such applica-
    12 tion shall be deemed abandoned if the alien fails to notify
    13 the Secretary of the alien's intent to proceed within one
    14 year after the date on which the notice was issued.
    15 (i) An alien described in subsection (f) shall remain
    16 eligible to receive a visa described in such subsection until
    17 the earliest of the date that-
    18 (1) the alien-
    19 (A) notifies the Secretary of State of the
    20 alien's intent to abandon the application; or
    21 (B) fails to respond to the notice described
    22 in subsection (g)(l); or
    23 (2) the Secretary of State makes a final deter-
    24 mination of the alien's ineligibility for such visa
    25 under section 203(c)(2), 204(a)(l)(I)(iii), or 212(a)
    g:\V\E\071221 \E071221.026.xml (80922615)
    July 12, 2021 (12:44 p.m.) G:\M\17\MENG\MENG_053.XML
    5
    1 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S. C.
    2 1153(c)(2), 1154(a)(l)(I)(iii), or 1182(a) ).
    3 (j) A determination of whether an alien is the child
    4 of a visa recipient described in subsection (f), pursuant
    5 section 203(d) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8
    6 U.S.C. 1153(d)) shall be made using the age of the child
    7 when the applicant was initially selected for a visa in ac-
    8 cordance with section 203(e)(2) of such Act.

    The DOS secretary should take steps to execute F above.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  10. #1160
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    So here is the language and trying to simplify it: BLUE color mine.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------


    SEC. . (a) Notwithstanding any other provision
    6 of law, beginning in fiscal year 2022, the worldwide level
    7 of family-sponsored immigrants under subsection ( c) of
    8 section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8
    9 U.S.C. 1151) and the worldwide level of employment-
    10 based immigrants under subsection (d) of such section
    11 shall each be increased by the number computed under
    12 subsection (b) of this section with respect to each of such
    13 worldwide levels.

    For year 2022 for EB and FB each the level of immigration should be increased by b where b is defined as follow:
    The increased level for each EB and FB can be called as A



    14 (b) For each of the worldwide levels described in sub-
    15 section (a) of this section, the number computed under
    16 this subsection is the difference (if any) between the sum
    g:\V\E\071221 \E071221.026.xml
    July 12, 2021 (12:44 p.m.)
    (80922615) G:\M\l 7\MENG\MENG_053.XML
    2
    1 of the worldwide levels established under the applicable
    2 subsection of section 201 of the Immigration and Nation-
    3 ality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151) for fiscal years 2020 and 2021
    4 and the number of visas that were issued and used as the
    5 basis for an application for admission into the United
    6 States as an immigrant described in the applicable sub-
    7 section during such fiscal years.

    b is defined for each FB and EB separately as b = visa level as established for 2020 + 2021 - visas used during 2020 and 2021

    8 ( c) The Secretary of State, in consultation with the
    9 Secretary of Homeland Security, shall allocate the visas
    10 made available as a result of the computation under sub-
    11 section (b) on a proportional basis consistent with sub-
    12 sections (a) and (b) of section 203 of the Immigration and
    13 Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(a) and (b)), and in accord-
    14 ance with subsection (e)(l) of such section (8 U.S.C.
    15 1153(e)(l)).

    Then level A should be distributed across sub categories according to the established usual formula.

    16 (d) Each visa made available as a result of the com-
    17 putation made under subsection (b) of this section shall
    18 remain available for use in fiscal year 2022 or any subse-
    19 quent fiscal year, until the Secretary of State, in consulta-
    20 tion with the Secretary of Homeland Security, determines
    21 that such visa has been issued and used as the basis for
    22 an application for admission into the United States.

    Visas under A should be available during 2022 as well as any future year. i.e. extra visas will spill from FB to FB and EB to EB only for year 2022 visas.

    23 (e) For fiscal year 2021 and 2022, the number com-
    24 puted under subsection (c)(3)(C) of section 201 of the Im-
    25 migration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151), and the
    g:\V\E\071221\E071221.026.xml
    July 12, 2021 (12:44 p.m.)
    (80922615) G:\M\l 7\MENG\MENG_053.XML
    3
    1 number computed under subsection (d)(2)(C) of such sec-
    2 tion, are deemed to equal zero.
    Spillover for year 2021 and 2022 from FB to EB and vice versa is ZERO. (i.e. any unused EB from 2021 stays in EB)

    3 (f) Notwithstanding section 204(a)(l)(I)(ii)(II) of the
    4 Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C.
    5 1154(a)(l)(I)(ii)(II)), and subject to subsection (i) of this
    6 section, an immigrant visa for those selected in accordance
    7 with section 203(e)(2) of the Immigration and Nationality
    8 Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(e)(2)) in fiscal year 2020 or 2021
    9 shall remain available to such alien if, because of restric-
    10 tions or limitations on visa processing, visa issuance, trav-
    11 el, or other effects associated with the COVID-19 public
    12 health emergency-
    13 ( 1) the alien was unable to receive a visa inter-
    14 view despite submitting an Online Immigrant Visa
    15 and Alien Registration Application (Form DS-260)
    16 to the Secretary of State; or
    17 (2) the alien was unable to seek admission or
    18 was denied admission to the United States despite
    19 being approved for a visa under section 203(c) of
    20 the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C.
    21 1153(c)).
    If diversity visas were announced then they should be issued those visas out of respective years. (2020 or 2021). This obviously then affects calculation of A.

    22 (g) Not later than 90 days after the date of the enact-
    23 ment of this section, the Secretary of State shall-
    24 ( 1) provide written notice consistent with sub-
    25 section (h) to each alien described in subsection (f)
    g:\V\E\071221 \E071221.026.xml (80922615)
    July 12, 2021 (12:44 p.m.) G:\M\l 7\MENG\MENG_053.XML
    4
    1 (and such alien's representative, if applicable) of
    2 their continuing eligibility to apply for a visa under
    3 section 203(c) of the Immigration and Nationality
    4 Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(c)); and
    5 (2) publish on the Department of State website,
    6 information and procedures implementing this sec-
    7 tion.
    8 (h) The notice described in subsection (g) (1) shall in-
    9 elude procedures for the alien to inform the Secretary of
    10 State of the alien's intent to proceed with or abandon the
    11 application, and shall include an advisal that such applica-
    12 tion shall be deemed abandoned if the alien fails to notify
    13 the Secretary of the alien's intent to proceed within one
    14 year after the date on which the notice was issued.
    15 (i) An alien described in subsection (f) shall remain
    16 eligible to receive a visa described in such subsection until
    17 the earliest of the date that-
    18 (1) the alien-
    19 (A) notifies the Secretary of State of the
    20 alien's intent to abandon the application; or
    21 (B) fails to respond to the notice described
    22 in subsection (g)(l); or
    23 (2) the Secretary of State makes a final deter-
    24 mination of the alien's ineligibility for such visa
    25 under section 203(c)(2), 204(a)(l)(I)(iii), or 212(a)
    g:\V\E\071221 \E071221.026.xml (80922615)
    July 12, 2021 (12:44 p.m.) G:\M\17\MENG\MENG_053.XML
    5
    1 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S. C.
    2 1153(c)(2), 1154(a)(l)(I)(iii), or 1182(a) ).
    3 (j) A determination of whether an alien is the child
    4 of a visa recipient described in subsection (f), pursuant
    5 section 203(d) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8
    6 U.S.C. 1153(d)) shall be made using the age of the child
    7 when the applicant was initially selected for a visa in ac-
    8 cordance with section 203(e)(2) of such Act.

    The DOS secretary should take steps to execute F above.
    Q - I have immense respect for you and other gurus in this forum. The way all of you provide stats, suggestions, comments selflessly, that's truly worth mentioning. I am a follower of this forum for a long time. Thanks for the detailed analysis of the proposed bill. So in layman's terms, can we expect any SO in 2022 or NONE? Thanks a bunch!

  11. #1161
    Quote Originally Posted by abcx13 View Post
    Q - I don't think it will actually allocate unused visas proportionally to EB and FB. I think it will allocate unused FY20+FY21 EB to EB in FY22 and unused FY20+FY21 FB to FB in FY22. FY20 FB-> FY21 EB SO that is unused by the time the bill passes also goes back to FB.
    This is my interpretation of the text too. If USCIS processes 100K EB (which is what more likely to happen) visas for FY-21 then we might just be able to get 40K additional visas for FY-22. All of the spillover from FY-2020 to FY-2021 (160K) which is more or less unused will go back to FB.
    NSC, EB2-I->EB3-I, PD:2/12, RD:11/4/20, ND:2/13/21, I-140(EB3):6/3/21, FP:7/16/21, I-693 (interfile): 7/22/21(delivered/no-ack), RFE(I-693):8/7/21, RFE-R: 8/10/21, EAD/AP: None, I-485 (Approved): 10/27/2021

  12. #1162
    Quote Originally Posted by sudebusa View Post
    Q - I have immense respect for you and other gurus in this forum. The way all of you provide stats, suggestions, comments selflessly, that's truly worth mentioning. I am a follower of this forum for a long time. Thanks for the detailed analysis of the proposed bill. So in layman's terms, can we expect any SO in 2022 or NONE? Thanks a bunch!
    If the bill goes through we may have some extra visas available but it will be rather a re-capture than spill over and also smaller in number than originally projected estimate from CO in his live-chat.
    NSC, EB2-I->EB3-I, PD:2/12, RD:11/4/20, ND:2/13/21, I-140(EB3):6/3/21, FP:7/16/21, I-693 (interfile): 7/22/21(delivered/no-ack), RFE(I-693):8/7/21, RFE-R: 8/10/21, EAD/AP: None, I-485 (Approved): 10/27/2021

  13. #1163
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    So here is the language and trying to simplify it: BLUE color mine.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------


    SEC. . (a) Notwithstanding any other provision
    6 of law, beginning in fiscal year 2022, the worldwide level
    7 of family-sponsored immigrants under subsection ( c) of
    8 section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8
    9 U.S.C. 1151) and the worldwide level of employment-
    10 based immigrants under subsection (d) of such section
    11 shall each be increased by the number computed under
    12 subsection (b) of this section with respect to each of such
    13 worldwide levels.

    For year 2022 for EB and FB each the level of immigration should be increased by b where b is defined as follow:
    The increased level for each EB and FB can be called as A



    14 (b) For each of the worldwide levels described in sub-
    15 section (a) of this section, the number computed under
    16 this subsection is the difference (if any) between the sum
    g:\V\E\071221 \E071221.026.xml
    July 12, 2021 (12:44 p.m.)
    (80922615) G:\M\l 7\MENG\MENG_053.XML
    2
    1 of the worldwide levels established under the applicable
    2 subsection of section 201 of the Immigration and Nation-
    3 ality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151) for fiscal years 2020 and 2021
    4 and the number of visas that were issued and used as the
    5 basis for an application for admission into the United
    6 States as an immigrant described in the applicable sub-
    7 section during such fiscal years.

    b is defined for each FB and EB separately as b = visa level as established for 2020 + 2021 - visas used during 2020 and 2021

    8 ( c) The Secretary of State, in consultation with the
    9 Secretary of Homeland Security, shall allocate the visas
    10 made available as a result of the computation under sub-
    11 section (b) on a proportional basis consistent with sub-
    12 sections (a) and (b) of section 203 of the Immigration and
    13 Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(a) and (b)), and in accord-
    14 ance with subsection (e)(l) of such section (8 U.S.C.
    15 1153(e)(l)).

    Then level A should be distributed across sub categories according to the established usual formula.

    16 (d) Each visa made available as a result of the com-
    17 putation made under subsection (b) of this section shall
    18 remain available for use in fiscal year 2022 or any subse-
    19 quent fiscal year, until the Secretary of State, in consulta-
    20 tion with the Secretary of Homeland Security, determines
    21 that such visa has been issued and used as the basis for
    22 an application for admission into the United States.

    Visas under A should be available during 2022 as well as any future year. i.e. extra visas will spill from FB to FB and EB to EB only for year 2022 visas.

    23 (e) For fiscal year 2021 and 2022, the number com-
    24 puted under subsection (c)(3)(C) of section 201 of the Im-
    25 migration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151), and the
    g:\V\E\071221\E071221.026.xml
    July 12, 2021 (12:44 p.m.)
    (80922615) G:\M\l 7\MENG\MENG_053.XML
    3
    1 number computed under subsection (d)(2)(C) of such sec-
    2 tion, are deemed to equal zero.
    Spillover for year 2021 and 2022 from FB to EB and vice versa is ZERO. (i.e. any unused EB from 2021 stays in EB)

    3 (f) Notwithstanding section 204(a)(l)(I)(ii)(II) of the
    4 Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C.
    5 1154(a)(l)(I)(ii)(II)), and subject to subsection (i) of this
    6 section, an immigrant visa for those selected in accordance
    7 with section 203(e)(2) of the Immigration and Nationality
    8 Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(e)(2)) in fiscal year 2020 or 2021
    9 shall remain available to such alien if, because of restric-
    10 tions or limitations on visa processing, visa issuance, trav-
    11 el, or other effects associated with the COVID-19 public
    12 health emergency-
    13 ( 1) the alien was unable to receive a visa inter-
    14 view despite submitting an Online Immigrant Visa
    15 and Alien Registration Application (Form DS-260)
    16 to the Secretary of State; or
    17 (2) the alien was unable to seek admission or
    18 was denied admission to the United States despite
    19 being approved for a visa under section 203(c) of
    20 the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C.
    21 1153(c)).
    If diversity visas were announced then they should be issued those visas out of respective years. (2020 or 2021). This obviously then affects calculation of A.

    22 (g) Not later than 90 days after the date of the enact-
    23 ment of this section, the Secretary of State shall-
    24 ( 1) provide written notice consistent with sub-
    25 section (h) to each alien described in subsection (f)
    g:\V\E\071221 \E071221.026.xml (80922615)
    July 12, 2021 (12:44 p.m.) G:\M\l 7\MENG\MENG_053.XML
    4
    1 (and such alien's representative, if applicable) of
    2 their continuing eligibility to apply for a visa under
    3 section 203(c) of the Immigration and Nationality
    4 Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(c)); and
    5 (2) publish on the Department of State website,
    6 information and procedures implementing this sec-
    7 tion.
    8 (h) The notice described in subsection (g) (1) shall in-
    9 elude procedures for the alien to inform the Secretary of
    10 State of the alien's intent to proceed with or abandon the
    11 application, and shall include an advisal that such applica-
    12 tion shall be deemed abandoned if the alien fails to notify
    13 the Secretary of the alien's intent to proceed within one
    14 year after the date on which the notice was issued.
    15 (i) An alien described in subsection (f) shall remain
    16 eligible to receive a visa described in such subsection until
    17 the earliest of the date that-
    18 (1) the alien-
    19 (A) notifies the Secretary of State of the
    20 alien's intent to abandon the application; or
    21 (B) fails to respond to the notice described
    22 in subsection (g)(l); or
    23 (2) the Secretary of State makes a final deter-
    24 mination of the alien's ineligibility for such visa
    25 under section 203(c)(2), 204(a)(l)(I)(iii), or 212(a)
    g:\V\E\071221 \E071221.026.xml (80922615)
    July 12, 2021 (12:44 p.m.) G:\M\17\MENG\MENG_053.XML
    5
    1 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S. C.
    2 1153(c)(2), 1154(a)(l)(I)(iii), or 1182(a) ).
    3 (j) A determination of whether an alien is the child
    4 of a visa recipient described in subsection (f), pursuant
    5 section 203(d) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8
    6 U.S.C. 1153(d)) shall be made using the age of the child
    7 when the applicant was initially selected for a visa in ac-
    8 cordance with section 203(e)(2) of such Act.

    The DOS secretary should take steps to execute F above.
    Q - Thanks!! I gave a clean read of the text once again and what you have laid out above is now aligning with my understanding. (EB's established numbers for fiscal 2020 + fiscal 2021) minus (EB's used numbers for fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2021) will be added back to the EB's fiscal 2022 available visas and that will become the established limit for fiscal 2022. My estimated math on this comes to (156k+255k) minus (147k+170k) = 94k recaptured visas. So the total established limit for EB for fiscal 2022 will be 94k + 140k = 234K.

    My key assumption is USCIS uses 170K visas by the end of this fiscal which I believe is reasonable given the run rate but you can run scenarios on that prediction to get at different estimates.

    Also, I note that there will be no spillover from FB to EB from fiscal 2021 to fiscal 2022 as well as fiscal 2022 to fiscal 2023. Basically, they are giving two full fiscal years to clear these unused numbers given that consulates are yet to open for FB numbers to be used as well as USCIS processing nightmares with AOS cases.
    Last edited by Zenzone; 07-15-2021 at 08:35 AM.

  14. #1164

    Lightbulb

    Quote Originally Posted by sudebusa View Post
    Q - I have immense respect for you and other gurus in this forum. The way all of you provide stats, suggestions, comments selflessly, that's truly worth mentioning. I am a follower of this forum for a long time. Thanks for the detailed analysis of the proposed bill. So in layman's terms, can we expect any SO in 2022 or NONE? Thanks a bunch!
    Thanks for your kind words. I do my bit and others do theirs. And that's really the goal of this blog - all of us helping each other live somewhat a better quality life through better clarity.

    To answer your question - yes absolutely there will be extra visas. How much? Hard to say but at a minimum my guess is 50-60K. At best - could be upto 200K.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  15. #1165
    Quote Originally Posted by Zenzone View Post
    Q - Thanks!! I gave a clean read of the text once again and what you have laid out above is now aligning with my understanding. (EB?s established numbers for fiscal 2020 + fiscal 2021) minus (EB?s used numbers for fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2021) will be added back to the EB?s fiscal 2022 available visas and that will become the established limit for fiscal 2022. My estimated math on this comes to (156k+255k) minus (147k+170k) = 94k recaptured visas. So the total established limit for EB for fiscal 2022 will be 94k + 140k = 234K.

    My key assumption is USCIS uses 170K visas by the end of this fiscal which I believe is reasonable given the run rate but you can run scenarios on that prediction to get at different estimates.

    Also, I note that there will be no spillover from FB to EB from fiscal 2021 to fiscal 2022 as well as fiscal 2022 to fiscal 2023. Basically, they are giving two full fiscal years to clear these unused numbers given that consulates are yet to open for FB numbers to be used as well as USCIS processing nightmares with AOS cases.
    So what they are propose to be doing (as I my latest understanding goes ) is:
    1) Use current established bases and not try to undo history. So EB retains all of last years spillover. And FB will give EB nothing next year (if amendment approved).
    2) Repeat the same the year after i.e. in 2022.
    3) 2023 onwards the visas will spill (but not the ones that were earmarked from 2020/2021 timeframe (kind of crazy)!!

    With this my initial guess is anywhere between 50K-200K visas for EB next year. It all depends if Meng's amendment goes through and when.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  16. #1166
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    So what they are propose to be doing (as I my latest understanding goes ) is:
    1) Use current established bases and not try to undo history. So EB retains all of last years spillover. And FB will give EB nothing next year (if amendment approved).
    2) Repeat the same the year after i.e. in 2022.
    3) 2023 onwards the visas will spill (but not the ones that were earmarked from 2020/2021 timeframe (kind of crazy)!!

    With this my initial guess is anywhere between 50K-200K visas for EB next year. It all depends if Meng's amendment goes through and when.
    With the current processing pace, i think the wastage will be closer to 100k of the total 255 k we had at the beginning of this fiscal. That puts the fiscal 2022 limit to approx 230-240k visas for EB from my estimate. Agree fully that there will definitely be extra visas.

  17. #1167
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Thanks for your kind words. I do my bit and others do theirs. And that's really the goal of this blog - all of us helping each other live somewhat a better quality life through better clarity.

    To answer your question - yes absolutely there will be extra visas. How much? Hard to say but at a minimum my guess is 50-60K. At best - could be upto 200K.
    Thanks, Q! I think this is a better scenario than wasting visas; at least for the near future (next 2 to 3 years).

  18. #1168

    Lightbulb

    Quote Originally Posted by Zenzone View Post
    With the current processing pace, i think the wastage will be closer to 100k of the total 255 k we had at the beginning of this fiscal. That puts the fiscal 2022 limit to approx 230-240k visas for EB from my estimate. Agree fully that there will definitely be extra visas.
    Yes indeed. Wastage this year determines lower bound of EXTRA visas availability next year.

    I do think though that the chances for meng amendment are less than 10%. Also it is not as good for EB folks from numbers standpoint. But from utilization standpoint it almost forces USCIS to use those visas and so the amendment works just fine especially for people prior to 2014 (just a wild guess).
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  19. #1169
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Yes indeed. Wastage this year determines lower bound of EXTRA visas availability next year.

    I do think though that the chances for meng amendment are less than 10%. Also it is not as good for EB folks from numbers standpoint. But from utilization standpoint it almost forces USCIS to use those visas and so the amendment works just fine especially for people prior to 2014 (just a wild guess).
    I think the amendment is marginally less beneficial for EB folks as the sheer numeric limit drops a bit for FY 2022 if you don't account for USCIS processing efficiency. In my experience as an Oct'20 filer, the tradeoff for exchanging that for assured no visa wasted in coming years is probably worth it regardless. My fear is without an amendment EB will lose ~100K visas as they are wasted this fiscal and get ~150K next year from FB but USCIS will probably waste another 100K next fiscal. So net gain is only (50+50) 100K visas over fiscal 21 and 22 FY. Whereas with amendment EB will surely gain ~130K visas. Therefore, amendment seems to be a better outcome when utilization is taken into account, IMO. Also, to Q's point above its high time USCIS is held accountable for the wastage as such.
    Last edited by Zenzone; 07-15-2021 at 10:37 AM.

  20. #1170
    Quote Originally Posted by Zenzone View Post
    I think the amendment is marginally less beneficial for EB folks as the sheer numeric limit drops a bit for FY 2022 if you don't account for USCIS processing efficiency. In my experience as an Oct'20 filer, the tradeoff for exchanging that for assured no visa wasted in coming years is probably worth it regardless. My fear is without an amendment EB will lose ~100K visas as they are wasted this fiscal and get ~150K next year from FB but USCIS will probably waste another 100K next fiscal. So net gain is only (50+50) 100K visas over fiscal 21 and 22 FY. Whereas with amendment EB will surely gain ~130K visas. Therefore, amendment seems to be a better outcome when utilization is taken into account, IMO. Also, to Q's point above its high time USCIS is held accountable for the wastage as such.
    We are totally on the same page. I hope people understand what you have articulated very well!
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  21. #1171
    Quote Originally Posted by Zenzone View Post
    Q - Thanks!! I gave a clean read of the text once again and what you have laid out above is now aligning with my understanding. (EB's established numbers for fiscal 2020 + fiscal 2021) minus (EB's used numbers for fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2021) will be added back to the EB's fiscal 2022 available visas and that will become the established limit for fiscal 2022. My estimated math on this comes to (156k+255k) minus (147k+170k) = 94k recaptured visas. So the total established limit for EB for fiscal 2022 will be 94k + 140k = 234K.

    My key assumption is USCIS uses 170K visas by the end of this fiscal which I believe is reasonable given the run rate but you can run scenarios on that prediction to get at different estimates.

    Also, I note that there will be no spillover from FB to EB from fiscal 2021 to fiscal 2022 as well as fiscal 2022 to fiscal 2023. Basically, they are giving two full fiscal years to clear these unused numbers given that consulates are yet to open for FB numbers to be used as well as USCIS processing nightmares with AOS cases.
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    So what they are propose to be doing (as I my latest understanding goes ) is:
    1) Use current established bases and not try to undo history. So EB retains all of last years spillover. And FB will give EB nothing next year (if amendment approved).
    2) Repeat the same the year after i.e. in 2022.
    3) 2023 onwards the visas will spill (but not the ones that were earmarked from 2020/2021 timeframe (kind of crazy)!!

    With this my initial guess is anywhere between 50K-200K visas for EB next year. It all depends if Meng's amendment goes through and when.
    I think clause e) sets the SO to zero for FY21 and FY22.

    This is the text from the INA:

    Quote Originally Posted by INA
    (d) Worldwide level of employment-based immigrants
    (1) The worldwide level of employment-based immigrants under this subsection for a fiscal year is equal to—
    (A) 140,000, plus
    (B) the number computed under paragraph (2).
    (2)
    (A) The number computed under this paragraph for fiscal year 1992 is zero.
    (B) The number computed under this paragraph for fiscal year 1993 is the difference (if any) between the worldwide level established under paragraph (1) for the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under section 1153(b) of this title during that fiscal year.
    (C) The number computed under this paragraph for a subsequent fiscal year is the difference (if any) between the maximum number of visas which may be issued under section 1153(a) of this title (relating to family-sponsored immigrants) during the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under that section during that year.
    So when e) sets that to zero for FY21 and FY22, it is referring to the FB SO from the previous years, i.e. FY20 and FY21.

  22. #1172
    Yes but the question is when it says -

    (e) For fiscal year 2021 and 2022, the number computed under subsection (c)(3)(C) of section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151), and the
    number computed under subsection (d)(2)(C) of such section, are deemed to equal zero.

    Does it mean at the end of fiscal 2021 and 2022 or the beginning of those years. For the argument sake if we assume it meant the beginning of those fiscal to your line of reasoning, there are ~ 130K visas granted based on the 1151.(d) (2) (C) section that allowed SO of unused FB visas from 2020 to roll-over to EB at the beginning of the 2021 fiscal. How would the DHS be able to undo what was consumed already by EB lawfully of that SO of 130K that came in to EB.

    Let's say if USCIS used 60K of those 130K FB SO visas in fiscal 2021 those 60K visas would be double counted.
    Last edited by Zenzone; 07-15-2021 at 01:21 PM.

  23. #1173
    Quote Originally Posted by Zenzone View Post
    Yes but the question is when it says -

    (e) For fiscal year 2021 and 2022, the number computed under subsection (c)(3)(C) of section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151), and the
    number computed under subsection (d)(2)(C) of such section, are deemed to equal zero.

    Does it mean at the end of fiscal 2021 and 2022 or the beginning of those years. For the argument sake if we assume it meant the beginning of those fiscal to your line of reasoning, there are ~ 130K visas granted based on the 1151.(d) (2) (C) section that allowed SO of unused FB visas from 2020 to roll-over to EB at the beginning of the 2021 fiscal. How would the DHS be able to undo what was consumed already by EB lawfully of that SO of 130K that came in to EB.

    Let's say if USCIS used 60K of those 130K FB SO visas in fiscal 2021 those 60K visas would be double counted.
    It's always beginning of fiscal years and not the end. It is my understanding as well that SO from 2020 and 2021 will be reversed, and not 2021 and 2022. The way the amendment is written currently, it is in conflict with the fact that some of the 2020 FB visas may be used by EB (though it doesn't look like it based on USCICS processing numbers). In such case my guess is the amendment will be modified eventually before the final bill to exclude the already used FB visas by the EB category.

  24. #1174
    Okay. I managed to pull the below excerpt from one of the COVID Stimulus bill draft from last July and found this language. It appears Meng's amendment is word for word a copy & paste and hence it applies for SO we got from FB at the end of 2020 fiscal and 2021 fiscal and not what I thought it to be this morning -

    (ii) ELIMINATION OF FALL ACROSS.—
    25 For fiscal years 2021 and 2022, the number computed under subsection (c)(3)(C) of
    2 section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151), and the
    4 number computed under subsection
    5 (d)(2)(C) of such section, are deemed to
    6 equal zero.

  25. #1175
    Quote Originally Posted by gammaray View Post
    It's always beginning of fiscal years and not the end. It is my understanding as well that SO from 2020 and 2021 will be reversed, and not 2021 and 2022. The way the amendment is written currently, it is in conflict with the fact that some of the 2020 FB visas may be used by EB (though it doesn't look like it based on USCICS processing numbers). In such case my guess is the amendment will be modified eventually before the final bill to exclude the already used FB visas by the EB category.
    I doubt USCIS will even get to processing 140K visas in FY-2021.
    NSC, EB2-I->EB3-I, PD:2/12, RD:11/4/20, ND:2/13/21, I-140(EB3):6/3/21, FP:7/16/21, I-693 (interfile): 7/22/21(delivered/no-ack), RFE(I-693):8/7/21, RFE-R: 8/10/21, EAD/AP: None, I-485 (Approved): 10/27/2021

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