Bills, Rules & Politics

[JoinedToAsk]

As far as I see, the new skinny bill still contains immigration provisions in it.

But here is some additional context based on news reporting -

According to Pelosi, the vote on the revised Heroes bill is independent of ongoing negotiations with Mnuchin. If Pelosi and Mnuchin agree on a new proposal, a new bill would need to be separately drafted and voted on in both the House and Senate before being signed into law. The total cost of the package and funding allocations like a child tax credit have remained chief sticking points.

So, if the skinny bill has immigration provisions, will it stop the spill over? Is there a text available for the bill? Do you know?

[qesehmk]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...have-blown-it/

This is a political article. But I am posting it here because of its relevance to the bill in congress and the spillover provision.

As I had noted earlier, Pelosi had the upper hand here and in her heart of hearts she knew that she wins by not having a deal. That's one reason I was and am sure Spillover won't be touched. The more crazy provisions you put in the bill, the likely it won't be agreed upon. So that to me was a tell tale sign of this was doomed.

We shouldn't be crying over - rather should be celebrating that a danger seems to have averted. Not that there was too much of a danger anyway. I think EB can take the 261K visas to the bank now.

[idliman]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...have-blown-it/

This is a political article. But I am posting it here because of its relevance to the bill in congress and the spillover provision.

As I had noted earlier, Pelosi had the upper hand here and in her heart of hearts she knew that she wins by not having a deal. That's one reason I was and am sure Spillover won't be touched. The more crazy provisions you put in the bill, the likely it won't be agreed upon. So that to me was a tell tale sign of this was doomed.

We shouldn't be crying over - rather should be celebrating that a danger seems to have averted. Not that there was too much of a danger anyway. I think EB can take the 261K visas to the bank now.

Q, you are a Citizen. So you probably have better reading on the pulse of the country than backloggers whose world revolves around H1B renewals, EAD/AP renewals and anticipated VB movements.

My work environment is predominantly Republican (dictated by the nature of our business). I am the only "H1B" and only "brown" engineer in a 400 mile radius. After the first presidential debate, I asked an young female colleague of mine (born and brought up in NC) about election prospects. She vouches that DT will win by a landslide and a lot of blacks will vote for DT. She says in a get-together with her hubby's IT colleagues (a PA based retirement firm famous for low rate index mutual funds) and all of them think that DT will win. This was very surprising for me. These are educated suburban folks with top level pay. She told me that all major news channels have an agenda and don't believe it. I came to the understanding that there is a huge disconnect with how backloggers think versus how the heart of the country thinks. I agree that "Nate Silver" is the golden boy of statistics and even he got the 2016 elections wrong. Honestly, I don't think anyone will know who is going to win until the election results come out on NOV3rd. This is my personal opinion.

Now to the topic of SO. As long as they keep fighting, the Rep. Grace Meng amendment will not happen. I am happy with that. I am not ready to say DT had already lost.

[qesehmk]

Q, you are a Citizen. So you probably have better reading on the pulse of the country than backloggers whose world revolves around H1B renewals, EAD/AP renewals and anticipated VB movements.

My work environment is predominantly Republican (dictated by the nature of our business). I am the only "H1B" and only "brown" engineer in a 400 mile radius. After the first presidential debate, I asked an young female colleague of mine (born and brought up in NC) about election prospects. She vouches that DT will win by a landslide and a lot of blacks will vote for DT. She says in a get-together with her hubby's IT colleagues (a PA based retirement firm famous for low rate index mutual funds) and all of them think that DT will win. This was very surprising for me. These are educated suburban folks with top level pay. She told me that all major news channels have an agenda and don't believe it. I came to the understanding that there is a huge disconnect with how backloggers think versus how the heart of the country thinks. I agree that "Nate Silver" is the golden boy of statistics and even he got the 2016 elections wrong. Honestly, I don't think anyone will know who is going to win until the election results come out on NOV3rd. This is my personal opinion.

Now to the topic of SO. As long as they keep fighting, the Rep. Grace Meng amendment will not happen. I am happy with that. I am not ready to say DT had already lost.

Totally agree. There is a huge disconnect between what Trump supporters think vs what polls are telling us.

I generally have excellent clarity on most things. But this year two things have completely confounded me. 1) The solidarity of trump vote completely baffles me. Don't understand why trump is not trailing by 20%. 2) I don't understand the reality of COVID. How did it come about and why china seem to be doing ok but US and India are not. Don't get me wrong. I love China. But I am just wondering is COVID an accident gone wrong or a deliberate geopolitical game or just a natural phenomena.

As per US immigration politics - as you said - as long as these guys keep fighting the Meng amendment won't see light of the day. In fact I hope it doesn't see light of the day even when they move ahead. But there is always 1% chance.

p.s. - Last month, I actually did finally become citizen after resisting it for almost four years. I already felt quite American in my heart but the thought of letting go of my Indian passport was quite sad. This year I had to either renew GC or go for citizenship. I chose citizenship. But nobody can take our Indianness away. Can they?

[vsivarama]

Q, you are a Citizen. So you probably have better reading on the pulse of the country than backloggers whose world revolves around H1B renewals, EAD/AP renewals and anticipated VB movements.

My work environment is predominantly Republican (dictated by the nature of our business). I am the only "H1B" and only "brown" engineer in a 400 mile radius. After the first presidential debate, I asked an young female colleague of mine (born and brought up in NC) about election prospects. She vouches that DT will win by a landslide and a lot of blacks will vote for DT. She says in a get-together with her hubby's IT colleagues (a PA based retirement firm famous for low rate index mutual funds) and all of them think that DT will win. This was very surprising for me. These are educated suburban folks with top level pay. She told me that all major news channels have an agenda and don't believe it. I came to the understanding that there is a huge disconnect with how backloggers think versus how the heart of the country thinks. I agree that "Nate Silver" is the golden boy of statistics and even he got the 2016 elections wrong. Honestly, I don't think anyone will know who is going to win until the election results come out on NOV3rd. This is my personal opinion.

Now to the topic of SO. As long as they keep fighting, the Rep. Grace Meng amendment will not happen. I am happy with that. I am not ready to say DT had already lost.

Polls were not wrong the last time around. The political pundits were wrong who interpreted the polls. HRC did win the popular vote with 2.1% (which was within the +/- 2% margin of error) and just before the election the popular vote average for HRC was between 3-4%. A lot of people have learnt the wrong lessons from 2016. It went from taking the polls with a grain of salt (factoring in the margin of error) to, do not trust the polls at all. Plus we did not have a lot of swing state polling for the rust belt last time around. Now can things turn around? Yes, it's possible. Just do not write off the polls completely. They will show the swing if things turn around.

[Zenzone]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...have-blown-it/

This is a political article. But I am posting it here because of its relevance to the bill in congress and the spillover provision.

As I had noted earlier, Pelosi had the upper hand here and in her heart of hearts she knew that she wins by not having a deal. That's one reason I was and am sure Spillover won't be touched. The more crazy provisions you put in the bill, the likely it won't be agreed upon. So that to me was a tell tale sign of this was doomed.

We shouldn't be crying over - rather should be celebrating that a danger seems to have averted. Not that there was too much of a danger anyway. I think EB can take the 261K visas to the bank now.

Q - Thanks for sharing this here. This bill never had a chance as such and even Pelosi during the times of negotiations said it won't be this bill that will advance even if there was a deal. Either way looks like SO is good and real.

[Zenzone]

Totally agree. There is a huge disconnect between what Trump supporters think vs what polls are telling us.

I generally have excellent clarity on most things. But this year two things have completely confounded me. 1) The solidarity of trump vote completely baffles me. Don't understand why trump is not trailing by 20%. 2) I don't understand the reality of COVID. How did it come about and why china seem to be doing ok but US and India are not. Don't get me wrong. I love China. But I am just wondering is COVID an accident gone wrong or a deliberate geopolitical game or just a natural phenomena.

As per US immigration politics - as you said - as long as these guys keep fighting the Meng amendment won't see light of the day. In fact I hope it doesn't see light of the day even when they move ahead. But there is always 1% chance.

p.s. - Last month, I actually did finally become citizen after resisting it for almost four years. I already felt quite American in my heart but the thought of letting go of my Indian passport was quite sad. This year I had to either renew GC or go for citizenship. I chose citizenship. But nobody can take our Indianness away. Can they?

Congrats on becoming a citizen!

[Zenzone]

Polls were not wrong the last time around. The political pundits were wrong who interpreted the polls. HRC did win the popular vote with 2.1% (which was within the +/- 2% margin of error) and just before the election the popular vote average for HRC was between 3-4%. A lot of people have learnt the wrong lessons from 2016. It went from taking the polls with a grain of salt (factoring in the margin of error) to, do not trust the polls at all. Plus we did not have a lot of swing state polling for the rust belt last time around. Now can things turn around? Yes, it's possible. Just do not write off the polls completely. They will show the swing if things turn around.

Ya...when the pendulum swings it swings to the other extreme very quickly. Good news is we are a under a month from finding out who's right

[rabp77]

Ya...when the pendulum swings it swings to the other extreme very quickly. Good news is we are a under a month from finding out who's right

in 2016, lots of key states the polls had HRC only slightly ahead of DJT. Some crazy events also changed the topic of discussion in the last 10 days before the election, and polls did not have time to reset for those changes. I agree with vsivarama polls were not entirely wrong. Polls were predicting a close election in the battleground states in 2016.

A big factor determining election result is voter optimism at the end of october. If voters are optimistic that things are improving, they in general vote for the incumbent, and also give a slight preference to republicans. If voters believe things are going to get worse, the incumbent loses. We still have a few weeks till end of october to see if there can be swings in voter optimism. Unlikely, but 2020 already has produced many surprise.

[gcpursuit]

https://www.aila.org/advo-media/issu...ng-wage-levels

I am thinking the DOL rule might impact a lot of people if they enforce that a "senior" role warrants a level 3 or level 4 wage. Any thoughts on this?

[Zenzone]

https://www.aila.org/advo-media/issu...ng-wage-levels

I am thinking the DOL rule might impact a lot of people if they enforce that a "senior" role warrants a level 3 or level 4 wage. Any thoughts on this?

This rule is about to get quashed through an injunction. Not a chance. However, separately speaking its not entirely illogical to expect a senior role to pay that level of wage. My 2 cents.

[gcpursuit]

This rule is about to get quashed through an injunction. Not a chance. However, separately speaking its not entirely illogical to expect a senior role to pay that level of wage. My 2 cents.

I agree that Level 4 wage should be used for Senior Roles. However, the prevailing wages have changed so much with this rule that level 4 wages will be near impossible for most small/medium sized companies. For example, in the DC area, the level 4 wage for a Software Developer is 200K. The level 4 wage for the same occupation was 140K before Oct 8. Thats a huge difference.

[idliman]

I agree that Level 4 wage should be used for Senior Roles. However, the prevailing wages have changed so much with this rule that level 4 wages will be near impossible for most small/medium sized companies. For example, in the DC area, the level 4 wage for a Software Developer is 200K. The level 4 wage for the same occupation was 140K before Oct 8. Thats a huge difference.

I was looking at tweets from gsiskind last week. They were saying that for medical professionals (recently graduated doctors) in rural areas, these new wage levels are impossible. AILA will definitely come up with a pro bono case to stop this. Maybe it will be through rural doctor wages considering the pandemic situation. Surely big money will start flowing in. I wonder what's the new salary for Pizza delivery guys and Fishing guys from some ROW countries. There is no word on that. The H2B visa wages will also be affected. However, this is fall/winter and off season for them. Otherwise this would have caused a havoc among DT supporters (agri folks).

Some consultancy companies apply for H1B renewal only at the last minute. Definitely some people will be impacted. I am sorry for those folks who are in that 1-2 month window.

[Zenzone]

I agree that Level 4 wage should be used for Senior Roles. However, the prevailing wages have changed so much with this rule that level 4 wages will be near impossible for most small/medium sized companies. For example, in the DC area, the level 4 wage for a Software Developer is 200K. The level 4 wage for the same occupation was 140K before Oct 8. Thats a huge difference.

Where are you finding this information. Are the new wages published for all regions by job codes?

[gcpursuit]

Where are you finding this information. Are the new wages published for all regions by job codes?

I checked here : https://www.flcdatacenter.com/oeswizardstart.aspx

It has the data by job code and you can compare with previous revisions.

[cool_dude]

This is ridiculous.My last H1 renewal was done level4 wage and my salary was 21k higher than needed.
Now i am short by 33k. Have to do renewal next year...
FLC data wages went up by 30k for the jobcode since last renewal.

[mesan123]

This is ridiculous.My last H1 renewal was done level4 wage and my salary was 21k higher than needed.
Now i am short by 33k. Have to do renewal next year...
FLC data wages went up by 30k for the jobcode since last renewal.

Yes.. my spouse in sameboat... now for his Level 3 renewal he needs 40K more.. he was in median salary range.. he meets only Level 1 in the new ranges.. the salaries are hiked crazily... luckily mine got renewed in end of July in level4...

This is going to be major problem for many extensions from Dec 7th another uscis rule coming in to effect that education and job should be same.. it is going to get crazy..

https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/perspe...nd-green-cards

[Zenzone]

This is ridiculous.My last H1 renewal was done level4 wage and my salary was 21k higher than needed.
Now i am short by 33k. Have to do renewal next year...
FLC data wages went up by 30k for the jobcode since last renewal.

Why can't you apply in L3 wage now. Even if the rule is in effect when you apply next year (unlikely). What's the problem with that?

[cool_dude]

I thought uscis audits if we do that...we will see what lawyer says when time comes..

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Now that ACB is confirmed, unless Dems win and take back the Senate, it's going to be mayhem next 4 years. ACA, Roe/Wade, DoMA, Voting Rights will all be gutted. Only Brown v/ Board of Education may survive.

[qesehmk]

Now that ACB is confirmed, unless Dems win and take back the Senate, it's going to be mayhem next 4 years. ACA, Roe/Wade, DoMA, Voting Rights will all be gutted. Only Brown v/ Board of Education may survive.

Unless Cavanaugh turns liberal this is the beginning of the end of American empire as all these religious zealots are going to start dismantling the free mason protestant ethic of this country. It is an utterly sad day.

[qesehmk]

Here is an interesting news piece that both supports and cuts my argument about Cavanaugh.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/27/polit...den/index.html

[Zenzone]

Here is an interesting news piece that both supports and cuts my argument about Cavanaugh.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/27/polit...den/index.html

I think as long as they count the postal ballots received until Nov 3rd that's fair enough and the margins are hopefully wide enough that we don't argue on these technicalities come next Wednesday and the permutations that come with it. Fingers crossed!

[Zenzone]

Now that ACB is confirmed, unless Dems win and take back the Senate, it's going to be mayhem next 4 years. ACA, Roe/Wade, DoMA, Voting Rights will all be gutted. Only Brown v/ Board of Education may survive.

What bout SC packing? I wouldn't rule that out yet!

[qesehmk]

I think as long as they count the postal ballots received until Nov 3rd that's fair enough and the margins are hopefully wide enough that we don't argue on these technicalities come next Wednesday and the permutations that come with it. Fingers crossed!

So perhaps this is just a gloomy day for me .. but I think SC is definitely going to stop counting of ballots in PA (just like they did in Florida in 2000).

Secondly ballots also have very high rejection rate and so any edge biden has nationally may evaporate in battleground states when that reject rate is taken into account.

So to me this race is still 50-50.