Bills, Rules & Politics

[NJMavarick]

The lawyers seems pretty outraged that dates for FB didnt become current, never saw them
showing this outrage when EB India dates moves up by a day or sometimes dont move at all. They want even EB India to join them in their outrage. Pretty funny actually. Just last week they were happy that House version of stimuls bill has clause to stop spillover from FB to EB for next 2 years.

It seem GS business depends upon FB immigration and that is the reason he is jumping up and down! Its kinda sad to see the gullible desi folks believing that he is going to be one on their saviors! Make no mistake, he is a wolf in sheep's clothing

[Zenzone]

It seem GS business depends upon FB immigration and that is the reason he is jumping up and down! Its kinda sad to see the gullible desi folks believing that he is going to be one on their saviors! Make no mistake, he is a wolf in sheep's clothing

H1b amendments, extensions, transfers, H4s, H4-EADs ahh and not to forget the RFEs etc etc....they are all cash cows for immigration attorneys. Why in any right sense of mind they would advocate for folks to get GC. Its a several billion dollar industry at the end of the day. While they truly advocate for pro non-immigrant visa policies which is a common interest, meaningful long term GC reforms become competing interests so we get pitted against each other. Its like friends with benefits in the short/medium term but a marriage of sorts is out of question...

[Zenzone]

I do not know Greg Sisking. When I went through his twits, they are logical and just to me. If EB was in same situation, we would be worried about dates not moving fast enough The same is true with FB. The only problem is - there is no law that states that DOS must allocate the visas. There is a practical difficulty in moving forward dates - a lot of the folks 6-12 months beyond "current dates" have no realistic chance of getting their background check done etc. So simply moving the dates does nothing.

As per unused visas falling across to EB - the only way that will not happen is by the act of congress. The congress will have to make a new law. In my judgement there is almost zero probability of that happening because it will be such a contentious bill. So I guess EB-I backlogged folks can safely assume that they will see a lot more extra visas next year. But of course strange things have happened in the past ... So don't hold me to this!

Q - This makes sense. But one question. You said - "The only problem is - there is no law that states that DOS must allocate the visas....." If that's true they can simply carryover unused FB visas this year to EB as required by the congressional mandate but choose not to give it to anyone in EB in the next fiscal because allocation is not required. Almost like operation is a success but patient died! Did I interpret this correctly?

[qesehmk]

Q - This makes sense. But one question. You said - "The only problem is - there is no law that states that DOS must allocate the visas....." If that's true they can simply carryover unused FB visas this year to EB as required by the congressional mandate but choose not to give it to anyone in EB in the next fiscal because allocation is not required. Almost like operation is a success but patient died! Did I interpret this correctly?

Theoretically they can do that. But realistically, in EB, there are hundreds of thousands of ready to go backlogged cases (unlike in FB). They are all processed and nothing is waiting other than a visa number. So the chances of all spillover visas going waste is a remote possibility. That is why DoS can control VB dates by 2 5 10 days in case of EB-I. Don't look at it as something sinister. It's just that they are operating within their bounds.

p.s. There is injustice - don't get me wrong. But I am saying DoS and most of US agencies are very very professional and methodical in what they do and how they do it.

[Zenzone]

Theoretically they can do that. But realistically, in EB, there are hundreds of thousands of ready to go backlogged cases (unlike in FB). They are all processed and nothing is waiting other than a visa number. So the chances of all spillover visas going waste is a remote possibility. That is why DoS can control VB dates by 2 5 10 days in case of EB-I. Don't look at it as something sinister. It's just that they are operating within their bounds.

p.s. There is injustice - don't get me wrong. But I am saying DoS and most of US agencies are very very professional and methodical in what they do and how they do it.

Thanks! This is helpful context.

[bloddy1]

H1-B - New potential rule for H1-B Visa holders that can cause a lot of heartache to 60-70% of the people. We should really ramp up our change/activist efforts

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuarta...250000-a-year/

[GC-Immigrant]

Theoretically they can do that. But realistically, in EB, there are hundreds of thousands of ready to go backlogged cases (unlike in FB). They are all processed and nothing is waiting other than a visa number. So the chances of all spillover visas going waste is a remote possibility. That is why DoS can control VB dates by 2 5 10 days in case of EB-I. Don't look at it as something sinister. It's just that they are operating within their bounds.

p.s. There is injustice - don't get me wrong. But I am saying DoS and most of US agencies are very very professional and methodical in what they do and how they do it.

I know its too early to ask, based on FB spillover, any chance EB2I will reach first quarter of 2011 coming October or November?

[gcq]

H1-B - New potential rule for H1-B Visa holders that can cause a lot of heartache to 60-70% of the people. We should really ramp up our change/activist efforts

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuarta...250000-a-year/

This maybe administrations efforts in response to court order restricting USCIS.

[vsivarama]

H1-B - New potential rule for H1-B Visa holders that can cause a lot of heartache to 60-70% of the people. We should really ramp up our change/activist efforts

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuarta...250000-a-year/

I don't think this can be done without the rule making process. Moreover this looks more like election propaganda than an actual policy position. The big companies will lobby heavily against it, to protect their financial interests. Nevertheless we need to be on the alert.

[Zenzone]

H1-B - New potential rule for H1-B Visa holders that can cause a lot of heartache to 60-70% of the people. We should really ramp up our change/activist efforts

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuarta...250000-a-year/

Looks like it aims to target primarily junior folks in every industry/profession. In my opinion, they would need to amend the INA for this and hence the congress. In many ways, this wage levels have already been significantly scrutinized since 2017 and this will memorialize the practice rather.

[delguy]

I don't think this can be done without the rule making process. Moreover this looks more like election propaganda than an actual policy position. The big companies will lobby heavily against it, to protect their financial interests. Nevertheless we need to be on the alert.

When you look at how it take 10 years to file someone a lawsuit against it, it is kind of unbelievable. You have these tens of thousands of lawyers who were busy satisfying this memo rather than questioning it in courts. Same happened with when denials skyrocketed, it took these shady consilting companirs to come together and file a lawsuit while biggies were simply accepting the rejections without questiioning uscis.

[gcq]

When you look at how it take 10 years to file someone a lawsuit against it, it is kind of unbelievable. You have these tens of thousands of lawyers who were busy satisfying this memo rather than questioning it in courts. Same happened with when denials skyrocketed, it took these shady consilting companirs to come together and file a lawsuit while biggies were simply accepting the rejections without questiioning uscis.

when filing lawsuit, there has to be caution. if for some reason the ruling goes against them and it becomes a precedent, then it is not good. in case of uscis memos, companies should have gone to court much earlier as the memo was invalid against current law on which it was based.
as iong as anti-immigrants are driving administration agenda, they will try to put as many road blocks as possible.

[NJMavarick]

I know its too early to ask, based on FB spillover, any chance EB2I will reach first quarter of 2011 coming October or November?

It depends upon 2 things:

- # of Spillover from FB to EB
- Willingness of CO to apply the spill over.

Its hard to say but Q1 2011 could be a stretch but possible

[vsivarama]

When you look at how it take 10 years to file someone a lawsuit against it, it is kind of unbelievable. You have these tens of thousands of lawyers who were busy satisfying this memo rather than questioning it in courts. Same happened with when denials skyrocketed, it took these shady consilting companirs to come together and file a lawsuit while biggies were simply accepting the rejections without questiioning uscis.

I am not denying what you say. But there is a difference here though. The memo was pushed as an interpretation to the existing law and so no rule making was required. Here they cannot push it as an interpretation to the existing law. Even though the memo was in effect for 10 years there was not necessarily much change in the denial rates and hence no one took much notice until 2018 when the rates rose up sharply as per the new addendum. I have also seen companies which never shared any client letters or project specific details, change their policies to provide them (including SOW details) to their contractors. While the biggies were simply accepting the rejections without questioning uscis, they were also actively making policy changes within their organization to make sure they could retain their workforce. Plus the one being proposed would have a broad reaching implications across every sector regardless of FTE or Contractors etc. This potentially could see a wave of outsourcing. Counting on the free market capitalism core principles to save the day.

[Zenzone]

It depends upon 2 things:

- # of Spillover from FB to EB
- Willingness of CO to apply the spill over.

Its hard to say but Q1 2011 could be a stretch but possible

Not sure Q1 2011 is possible this October, but by next Q3 fiscal it can be. If other things mentioned happen.

[NJMavarick]

Not sure Q1 2011 is possible this October, but by next Q3 fiscal it can be. If other things mentioned happen.

If the spill over number is BIG and its a big IF, there is an outside chance that filing dates can move to Q1 2011. There are plethora of possibilities and simulations for us to run

What if we get 70K FB spill over? What if EB3 ROW is current this fiscal? What if CO decides to go aggressive in anticipation of spill over?

No one can accurately predict, however in all probability EB1 folks are poised to reap the benefits

[GC-Immigrant]

It depends upon 2 things:

- # of Spillover from FB to EB
- Willingness of CO to apply the spill over.

Its hard to say but Q1 2011 could be a stretch but possible

Thank You

[delguy]

It depends upon 2 things:

- # of Spillover from FB to EB
- Willingness of CO to apply the spill over.

Its hard to say but Q1 2011 could be a stretch but possible

Since we are discussing FB -> EB spillovers. I think it is worth posting what INS language says:

https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?...edition=prelim

relevant section below:

8 USC 1151: Worldwide level of immigration

(d) Worldwide level of employment-based immigrants
(1) The worldwide level of employment-based immigrants under this subsection for a fiscal year is equal to-

(A) 140,000, plus

(B) the number computed under paragraph (2).


(2)(A) The number computed under this paragraph for fiscal year 1992 is zero.

(B) The number computed under this paragraph for fiscal year 1993 is the difference (if any) between the worldwide level established under paragraph (1) for the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under section 1153(b) of this title during that fiscal year.

(C) The number computed under this paragraph for a subsequent fiscal year is the difference (if any) between the maximum number of visas which may be issued under section 1153(a) of this title (relating to family-sponsored immigrants) during the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under that section during that year.

[delguy]

As you see above, the language is very clear. In my opinion doesnt leave any scope for alteration using EO or any other method except a change via congress sneaked in one of the stimulus/budget bills.

[Zenzone]

If the spill over number is BIG and its a big IF, there is an outside chance that filing dates can move to Q1 2011. There are plethora of possibilities and simulations for us to run

What if we get 70K FB spill over? What if EB3 ROW is current this fiscal? What if CO decides to go aggressive in anticipation of spill over?

No one can accurately predict, however in all probability EB1 folks are poised to reap the benefits

You mean to file this October 2020??

[Zenzone]

As you see above, the language is very clear. In my opinion doesnt leave any scope for alteration using EO or any other method except a change via congress sneaked in one of the stimulus/budget bills.

Yes. That's true. Good you shared the actual language.

[Zenzone]

If the spill over number is BIG and its a big IF, there is an outside chance that filing dates can move to Q1 2011. There are plethora of possibilities and simulations for us to run

What if we get 70K FB spill over? What if EB3 ROW is current this fiscal? What if CO decides to go aggressive in anticipation of spill over?

No one can accurately predict, however in all probability EB1 folks are poised to reap the benefits

FB spillover applies to EB 1/2/3 equally. Why you say EB1 will reap in particular. Yes. they may get more vertical SO. I see that advantage but otherwise every category is set to benefit from FB SO and horizontal SO within that category both from AOS and CP cases.

[excalibur123]

FB spillover applies to EB 1/2/3 equally. Why you say EB1 will reap in particular. Yes. they may get more vertical SO. I see that advantage but otherwise every category is set to benefit from FB SO and horizontal SO within that category both from AOS and CP cases.

Also if as per the law the numbers would be 140K plus say 70K - then 210K - so that’s about 50 percent more. So if EB2 earlier moved by 2 months in year, now it would move 3 months. Big whoop ?!!

[Immigo]

Also if as per the law the numbers would be 140K plus say 70K - then 210K - so that’s about 50 percent more. So if EB2 earlier moved by 2 months in year, now it would move 3 months. Big whoop ?!!

Not exactly - the demand for ROW would stay the same, so impact will be bigger. For example, assume EB2 quota goes up from 40K to 65K (Extra 25K). Assuming ROW demand stays at about 30K-35K, EB2-I will get the bulk of the extra visas. The key variable is how big the spillover will be.

[Zenzone]

Also if as per the law the numbers would be 140K plus say 70K - then 210K - so that’s about 50 percent more. So if EB2 earlier moved by 2 months in year, now it would move 3 months. Big whoop ?!!

Quite respectfully, bring us data and not your opinions. Spec and others have done enough analysis on the SO scenarios. I would suggest you reading it. There will be substantial movements across all three categories if SO and allocations materialize.