Bills, Rules & Politics

[cancer24]

One more try -

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuarta.../#2c00826a7b85

[HarepathekaIntezar]

One more try -

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuarta.../#2c00826a7b85

Fringe desi immigration groups like IV et al don't have a strategy/plan to get this done. All they do is get co-sponshorship, a few rallies, a few news articles and a few photo ops with politicians and there ends the Bill. It never gets to the floor of the House or Senate. This has been going on for the last 10 yrs. The first thing that the lobbying groups should do is to get buy-in/committment from(in this order) the Speaker, House Majority Leader, House Minority Leader, Senate Majority Leader, Senate Minority Judiciary, Chairmen of the Judiciary Committees, Chairmen of the Immigration Sub-Committees, Ranking Members. Only when that is achieved is there any chance of the Bill getting passed.

The Senate Majority leader has his own Republican priorities and an EB Immigration Bill is not one of them. Speaker has her own priorities and EB Immigration is not one of them. Even if it gets passed by both Senate and House, Stephen Miller is guaranteed to get it vetoed by the liar-in-chief.

[qesehmk]

I agree 100% with everything except IV is not fringe. IV is the de facto face for backlogged immigrants. However they are absolute idiots who should have spent all that money in courts rather than advocacy. How can advocacy succeed when the current system works for facebook google and the whole tech industry is built on blood sweat and tears of H1Bs. (may be not whole. ... but significant ... isn't it?).

Fringe desi immigration groups like IV et al don't have a strategy/plan to get this done. All they do is get co-sponshorship, a few rallies, a few news articles and a few photo ops with politicians and there ends the Bill. It never gets to the floor of the House or Senate. This has been going on for the last 10 yrs. The first thing that the lobbying groups should do is to get buy-in/committment from(in this order) the Speaker, House Majority Leader, House Minority Leader, Senate Majority Leader, Senate Minority Judiciary, Chairmen of the Judiciary Committees, Chairmen of the Immigration Sub-Committees, Ranking Members. Only when that is achieved is there any chance of the Bill getting passed.

The Senate Majority leader has his own Republican priorities and an EB Immigration Bill is not one of them. Speaker has her own priorities and EB Immigration is not one of them. Even if it gets passed by both Senate and House, Stephen Miller is guaranteed to get it vetoed by the liar-in-chief.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I agree 100% with everything except IV is not fringe. IV is the de facto face for backlogged immigrants. However they are absolute idiots who should have spent all that money in courts rather than advocacy. How can advocacy succeed when the current system works for facebook google and the whole tech industry is built on blood sweat and tears of H1Bs. (may be not whole. ... but significant ... isn't it?).

Agree with you. IV is a babble of arrogant idiots who don't listen to reason.How wonderful it would be if IV could take up lobbying Dems and have the RHC lobby the Repubs!

[srimurthy]

Everyone can you please sign the petition. I know it may not be of much help, but whatever we can.

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/pet...-h4-ead-policy

[babslak]

As per the Immfinews, there are high chances for this rule/amendmen(1615-AC22) to be taken once the dust settles down on the H4-EAD rule. Most probably this will come under radar in July/August timeframe by which we will know the complete fate of H4-EAD.....One good thing with this rule is, we all will get a clear idea about the inventory atleast...

https://immfinews.com/uscis-dhs-regu...ties-for-2019/

[EB32010]

As per the Immfinews, there are high chances for this rule/amendmen(1615-AC22) to be taken once the dust settles down on the H4-EAD rule. Most probably this will come under radar in July/August timeframe by which we will know the complete fate of H4-EAD.....One good thing with this rule is, we all will get a clear idea about the inventory atleast...

https://immfinews.com/uscis-dhs-regu...ties-for-2019/

Not sure why everybody is taking immfinews as golden. They are just another website.

BTW, I will pretty much guarantee that H4 EAD is not going away anytime soon.

[babslak]

Yes I agree with you..I'm not taking it as golden , just referenced it as i have read it from there. I just read the same from immigration girl too..."Yes, that is on the agenda. We may see a proposed regulation this fall.". Tried to copy the image//screenshot unsuccessfully..

[EB32010]

Yes I agree with you..I'm not taking it as golden , just referenced it as i have read it from there. I just read the same from immigration girl too..."Yes, that is on the agenda. We may see a proposed regulation this fall.". Tried to copy the image//screenshot unsuccessfully..

I apologize if you felt offended. I didn’t mean this to direct at you. I saw this website on many forums. Hence commented.

[tatikonda]

without legislative actions, dates for EB-I will be be just weeks. it is very hard to cross 2010 in next couple of years also.
so, please call your representive and ask them to support Hr1044.
I know some of us are seeing similar bill from 2011 and vexed, but guys do we have other choice.
please spread this bill. last year HR3020 was highest googled bill.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-...044/cosponsors

Thanks
Tatikonda.

It may end up too little, too late for EB3I. While I don't wish it, this FY EB3****isas might be wasted. I don't think CO or USCIS has any insight in to actual demand in field offices. Correct me if I am wrong - I think on average it takes 8-months to schedule an interview in a field office.

Iatiam

[iatiam]

without legislative actions, dates for EB-I will be be just weeks. it is very hard to cross 2010 in next couple of years also.
so, please call your representive and ask them to support Hr1044.
I know some of us are seeing similar bill from 2011 and vexed, but guys do we have other choice.
please spread this bill. last year HR3020 was highest googled bill.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-...044/cosponsors

Thanks
Tatikonda.

Unfortunately, the bill has little or no chance of passing. We are already in to three months for the new congress and that leaves around nine months for legislative action. After that, it's election year and nothing will get done. I worked hard for the bill in 2011 and then 2015 onwards. The bill was blocked by Grassley in 2011 and he is still around. Plus no other nation will agree to a bill which spreads the pain equally among all.

We are left with downporting and future recessions and immigration enforcement to clear backlog. Reality

[altek001]

I see it different. It feels like there are more chances to get this approved then anytime else. I have seen it in 2011 as well. here are my thoughts;

1) Biggest point is not attachments to this bill; in 2011 main reason for objection was increment of the H1B.
2) Presidential interest: Obama had focus on DACA/DAPA then this bill. He never pushed senate democrats to move this bill forward. They needed only 20 some Republicans for filibuster.
3) again Presidential interest: Trump has some interest in issue. If passes house, he may push senate for another victorious bill.

Current supports: 183 in house: 123 (D), 60 (R): Numbers for passing a bill 218, it means 35 more needed.
20 in senate: 11 (R), 9 (D), more republican then Democrats for now:Numbers for passing a bill 51, it means 31 more needed.

Admiring your optimism
Even if 31 congressmen support this bill, there are reasons it may not materialize into law.
1) Congressmen who supported the bill, may not vote on the house floor.
2) Influential legislators like Grassley, Tom cotton will put a hold on the bill to move forward.
3) The bill doesn't get a house floor vote at any time in this Congress.

[EB32010]

Admiring your optimism
Even if 31 congressmen support this bill, there are reasons it may not materialize into law.
1) Congressmen who supported the bill, may not vote on the house floor.
2) Influential legislators like Grassley, Tom cotton will put a hold on the bill to move forward.
3) The bill doesn't get a house floor vote at any time in this Congress.

Tom Cotton was co-sponsor of S281. (senate version of HR 392)

[srimurthy]

Tom Cotton was co-sponsor of S281. (senate version of HR 392)

Now, it has moved upto 193, adding 10 more co-sponsors.
But as we all know sponsoring and signatures is one step, and putting the bill for vetoes and passing is another thing.

[Raj0687]

Now, it has moved upto 193, adding 10 more co-sponsors.
But as we all know sponsoring and signatures is one step, and putting the bill for vetoes and passing is another thing.

The big challenge for this bill is to get the approval from house, senate judiciary committee to move it to the floor for debate. Getting enough votes and president sign desn't seem to be a problem at least now. Talking to committee members and convincing them will help rather than co-sponsors.

Grassely may be convinced this time as the H1B program kept getting fixed and seems to be solid. I don't think his decision matters, if the majority committee members agree.

[gs1968]

The big challenge for this bill is to get the approval from house, senate judiciary committee to move it to the floor for debate. Getting enough votes and president sign desn't seem to be a problem at least now. Talking to committee members and convincing them will help rather than co-sponsors.

Grassely may be convinced this time as the H1B program kept getting fixed and seems to be solid. I don't think his decision matters, if the majority committee members agree.

According to Breitbart Sen.Grassley is going to reintroduce his H-1b reform bill. In the past Sen.Durbin has co-sponsored this effort. A lot of fixes to the H-1 b program have been administrative discretionary fixes which are subject to legal challenges and may easily be reversed by future administrations. If written into law then these changes will be more long lasting. The reason this has not happened so far is because if the loopholes in the program are closed there will certainly be calls for increasing the annual numbers which the immigration Hawks do not want

[tatikonda]

Having 193 cosponsors means nothing
I agree H.R.392 had 329 cosponsors but the bill never made it to house voting floor. I know how frustating it can be. House Speaker never brought this bill to floor. Republican speakers John Boehner/Paul Ryan stood on their word not to bring any immigrations bills, not sure what is Nancy's stand.

Senate is more complicated than House. their productivity is much less than Reps. nevertheless, I have no other options to think positive and stay happy.

Now, it has moved upto 193, adding 10 more co-sponsors.
But as we all know sponsoring and signatures is one step, and putting the bill for vetoes and passing is another thing.

[srimurthy]

Having 193 cosponsors means nothing
I agree H.R.392 had 329 cosponsors but the bill never made it to house voting floor. I know how frustating it can be. House Speaker never brought this bill to floor. Republican speakers John Boehner/Paul Ryan stood on their word not to bring any immigrations bills, not sure what is Nancy's stand.

Senate is more complicated than House. their productivity is much less than Reps. nevertheless, I have no other options to think positive and stay happy.

I doubt this will hit the house floor. Anything that is not addressing illegal immigration will not come up for voting in the house.
Recently when I reached out to my Congresswomen for the bills on legal immigration and also petitions for H4EAD.... this is what the reply was
****
CALLING OUT HYPOCRISY ON IMMIGRATION POLICY

Each year at the State of the Union, Members of Congress invite guests that call attention to the need to pass legislation on a variety of policy fronts. This year, my guest was Victorina Morales, a resident of Bound Brook, New Jersey and an undocumented immigrant formerly employed by the Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster. For 35 days, critical agencies closed because, according to the President, "year after year, countless Americans are murdered by criminal illegal aliens." I invited Victorina to demonstrate two things: that immigrants, by and large, are law abiding and hardworking, and that the President’s own organization was happy to hire them for that very reason. I support immigration reform that includes a pathway to citizenship for constituents like Victorina, permanent protections for Dreamers, and reforms that acknowledge a fundamental fact: we are, and have always been a nation of immigrants and we’re stronger thanks to their contributions.

****

I feel they are just looking at brownie points and I can understand as addressing anything to do with illegal immigrants already here will add any where between 5 to 10 mil to the vote bank.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuarta...l#74f53eb5183e

[gs1968]

I doubt this will hit the house floor. Anything that is not addressing illegal immigration will not come up for voting in the house.
Recently when I reached out to my Congresswomen for the bills on legal immigration and also petitions for H4EAD.... this is what the reply was
****
CALLING OUT HYPOCRISY ON IMMIGRATION POLICY

Each year at the State of the Union, Members of Congress invite guests that call attention to the need to pass legislation on a variety of policy fronts. This year, my guest was Victorina Morales, a resident of Bound Brook, New Jersey and an undocumented immigrant formerly employed by the Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster. For 35 days, critical agencies closed because, according to the President, "year after year, countless Americans are murdered by criminal illegal aliens." I invited Victorina to demonstrate two things: that immigrants, by and large, are law abiding and hardworking, and that the President’s own organization was happy to hire them for that very reason. I support immigration reform that includes a pathway to citizenship for constituents like Victorina, permanent protections for Dreamers, and reforms that acknowledge a fundamental fact: we are, and have always been a nation of immigrants and we’re stronger thanks to their contributions.

****

I feel they are just looking at brownie points and I can understand as addressing anything to do with illegal immigrants already here will add any where between 5 to 10 mil to the vote bank.

Srimurthy

I was reminded of your post when I saw this headline yesterday

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...ngress-1249956

Sen.Harris is also an original co-sponsor of s.386 and is trying to get every angle covered in her presidential quest. Even on the house side since the introduction of HR 1044 there have been numerous bills introduced including HR6 dealing with illegal immigration. Reps. Suozzi and King will be introducing their bipartisan bill soon dealing with the same issue. I feel that there are too many competing interests at this point just muddying the waters.As you said it is hard to avoid thinking that the fate of any individual bill is closely linked to the prospects of another one. HPK had mentioned that if the HR1044 provisions were not included in the recently passed DHS appropriations Bill it would be a long grind and he was probably on to something there

[gs1968]

I just read that the USCIS director Frank Lee Cissna will also be leaving his post soon. His viewpoints on the country cap elimination is well known and his tenure has been marked by significant administrative changes to immgration. Unfortunately we have no details yet on his successor and whether things will actually get worse

[tatikonda]

Guys,

I know you guys are doing great with crunching numbers and guesstimations but there is literally huge demand and spillover is getting smaller and smaller.
in 2019, we are discussing when 2009 will be cleared, 10 years of waiting...

Only hope is some legislative actions.. I know you guys are tried of seeing failed bills.
we need to have faith and support HR1044, this is only bill which is having little chance.

According to new rules, if a bill has 290 sponsors, it should come to voting floor.
this bill is already having 259 sponsors, so 31 more to go.
call your Representative and ask to support.

Thanks

All,

I am having a priority date of May 2011 in EB3I and was trying to figure out the possibility of me able to file my I-485 to get the EAD (At the moment even EAD will do it).

Now, between April 2010 and May 2011, I see the total PERM applications (eb2+eb3 combined) as 31063. I am reducing this number by 30% due to duplicate filings, spouse having a separate PERM and so on. This would make me arrive at 21744 PERMs.

It seems for EB2, USCIS considers 1 dependent for every primary and EB3 the ratio is 2.1. I think from 21744, the ratio of EB3 would be 25% vs 75% for EB2.

So,
EB3 = 5436 * 2.1 = 11415
EB2 = 16308 * 2 = 32616

Can I assume I have in total 44032 people waiting ahead of me?

Scenario #1 (One queue)
EB2+EB3 Visas = 5616 Visas per year. It would take ~8 more years to file my I-485 44032 / 5616)?

Scenario #2
EB3: 11415 + 8154 EB2 Downgrades (I will cap this @25% of 32616) = 19569
Considering, we get a combined total of 9000 Visas each year (including spillover), it would take 2.2 Years(approx Q1 OF 2022) for EB3I?

Scenario #3
EB3: 11415 + 13046 EB2 Downgrades (I will cap this @40% of 32616) = 24461
Considering, we get a combined total of 9000 Visas each year(including spillover), it would take 2.7 Years (approx Q2 OF 2022) for EB3I?

The only unknown is the FAD for both Eb2 and EB3 for this FY. I will have to add 8 / 2.2 / 2.7 years from the day the FAD reaches APRIL 2010.

I understand this is all a guesstimate but is my analysis accurate or I am missing something obvious?

Please feel free to correct or provide your feedback. Thanks

[tatikonda]

Hi All,

In, 115th Congress - Bill # HR 392 was co-sponsored by 329 House Representatives.
153 Republicans supported it, same bill now renamed as HR1044 is having 259 cosponsoro but only 80 Republicans.
please look at your distict HR and see if they agreed to sponsoror this new bill, if not give a call.. tell them his/her predecessor supported it.



https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-...ouse-bill/1044

https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-...%5D%7D&r=2&s=3

[gs1968]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/congre...ng-work-period

This is the outline for May. Immigration seems to be very low on the agenda

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Check this out

https://www.am22tech.com/path-to-cit...-visa-holders/