Bills, Rules & Politics

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I want to get off the pessimistic train for a bit and looking for analysis on what will be the impact of these 40k visas being available for Medical Personnel?

Reading this: https://www.aila.org/advo-media/pres...rce-resilience,

I understand the 40k visas comping from recapture process. But any clue as to what do they mean by the families of those 40k applicants not counting toward the limit? Are they going to be getting 'free' visas tied to the principal applicant or are going to get some from spillover?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Summary of the proposed bill from G Siskind:

http://www.visalaw.com/siskind-summa...ct-may-1-2020/

[monsieur]

Anybody from EB who gets their GC outside of 140K limit is good in my books. Thats thining queue which will help in spillover. This bill talks abt getting its visa via recapture good for them and I will root for them to pass.

Just my 0.02 cents

[skpanda]

What happens to the unused recaptured Visa nbrs? Say recapture was 500k. Bill says 40k + family nbrs will be deducted from the total nbr. Say 100k was reduced. What happens to the rest of 400? No language in the bill to say what will happen to those.

[eaglenow]

What happens to the unused recaptured Visa nbrs? Say recapture was 500k. Bill says 40k + family nbrs will be deducted from the total nbr. Say 100k was reduced. What happens to the rest of 400? No language in the bill to say what will happen to those.

Until we see the legal language we won’t know. Based on what has come out in summaries, they are reserving 40k for docs and nurses. Their spouses and children will take numbers from remaining recaptured visas. There is no explicit language for the rest. Either it goes to others in backlog or they are not recaptured to begin with or the numbers are wasted.

Now you see why this bill won’t fly. Essentially they are trying to increase GC numbers, which republicans will want to offset from family. You know how the rest will go.

[qesehmk]

This also allows for family/dependents - so the net number might be higher than 80K (assuming 1+ dependent). I doubt though whether there are 25K AOS candidates for Nurses. It feels like 15K for Doctors should be fine. Another good thing here is that the proposal is for issuance of visas in order of PD - so super backlogged countries should have a better outcome.

I just checked imdeng. It seems to me 40K is the total for primary and dependents. But I may be wrong. Perhaps somebody can confirm their understanding too.

[imdeng]

I just checked imdeng. It seems to me 40K is the total for primary and dependents. But I may be wrong. Perhaps somebody can confirm their understanding too.

I might be mis-reading. I was looking at the paragraph below and assigning meaning to the term "unreserved". To me it meant - not part of the 40K reserved visas for nurses and physicians. I might (and think likely am) be wrong.

‘‘(C) FAMILY MEMBERS.—
11 ‘‘(i) IN GENERAL.—Family members
12 described in section 203(d) of the Immi13 gration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C.
14 1153(d)) who are accompanying or fol15 lowing to join a principal beneficiary seek16 ing admission under this subsection shall
17 be entitled to an unreserved visa in the
18 same status and in the same order of con19 sideration as such principal beneficiary.

[qesehmk]

I might be mis-reading. I was looking at the paragraph below and assigning meaning to the term "unreserved". To me it meant - not part of the 40K reserved visas for nurses and physicians. I might (and think likely am) be wrong.

‘‘(C) FAMILY MEMBERS.—
11 ‘‘(i) IN GENERAL.—Family members
12 described in section 203(d) of the Immi13 gration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C.
14 1153(d)) who are accompanying or fol15 lowing to join a principal beneficiary seek16 ing admission under this subsection shall
17 be entitled to an unreserved visa in the
18 same status and in the same order of con19 sideration as such principal beneficiary.

I must say these bills are very hard to read. So I am not 100% sure either. But to me this section C is saying - Dependents get allocated visas through the 40K quota rather than the usual EB quota (because that would complicate the picture where primary is going through this new quota and dependent is not).

[qesehmk]

I might be mis-reading. I was looking at the paragraph below and assigning meaning to the term "unreserved". To me it meant - not part of the 40K reserved visas for nurses and physicians. I might (and think likely am) be wrong.

‘‘(C) FAMILY MEMBERS.—
11 ‘‘(i) IN GENERAL.—Family members
12 described in section 203(d) of the Immi13 gration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C.
14 1153(d)) who are accompanying or fol15 lowing to join a principal beneficiary seek16 ing admission under this subsection shall
17 be entitled to an unreserved visa in the
18 same status and in the same order of con19 sideration as such principal beneficiary.

You are correct imdeng. After carefully reading the bill I found this explicite verbiage that says that family numbers are not to be counted against the 40K.

On page 5 -
Visas described in clause (i)— ‘‘(I) shall be made available from the pool of recaptured unused immigrant visas calculated under subpara-1graph (A); and ‘‘(II) shall not be counted against the total number of immigrant visas reserved for professional nurses and physicians under paragraph (2).

Reserved is 40k of recaptured, unreserved is either from remaining recaptured or from regular eb, most probably the former. Need to read the full text to confirm.

eagle - yes you are correct.

[oraclept]

Thanks q. On April 23 or so. Trump signed eo which mentioned about reviewing non immigrants visas in 30 days.

[Zenzone]

Thanks q. On April 23 or so. Trump signed eo which mentioned about reviewing non immigrants visas in 30 days.

Yes. But remember he also had an EO called "Buy American and Hire American" that has been implemented all along. I heard Chad Wolf in an interview saying many such rules are already in works for non-immigrant visas. I presume he was referring to the proposed rules published in the latest USCIS/DHS rulemaking agenda for this spring. Bottomline, things are already in works. Materiality of these are still an unknown! Also remember until consulates abroad are shut there are no visas issued as such across the board. That said, additional proclamation saying don't issue non-immigrant visas after the consulates are open is quite possible.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Yes. But remember he also had an EO called "Buy American and Hire American" that has been implemented all along. I heard Chad Wolf in an interview saying many such rules are already in works for non-immigrant visas. I presume he was referring to the proposed rules published in the latest USCIS/DHS rulemaking agenda for this spring. Bottomline, things are already in works. Materiality of these are still an unknown! Also remember until consulates abroad are shut there are no visas issued as such across the board. That said, additional proclamation saying don't issue non-immigrant visas after the consulates are open is quite possible.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuarta.../#684096c54513

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

https://www.cotton.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=1358

https://twitter.com/Lancegooden/stat...04157972795392

All these are just posturing because the House will likely strike down these bills but Trump can likely unilaterally keep extending the immigration bans until Satan Miller is satisfied.

[qesehmk]

https://www.cotton.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=1358

https://twitter.com/Lancegooden/stat...04157972795392

All these are just posturing because the House will likely strike down these bills but Trump can likely unilaterally keep extending the immigration bans until Satan Miller is satisfied.

Thank you. Good information. I have a fear that this is active resistance rather than posturing.

Unless courts strike it down the ban will extend and broaden to other categories.

p.s. - If you read history - every single anarchist fastist terrorist person wrote it down long before what he was going to do. We fail to heed these signs and think this is empty rhetoric. Mark my words - they are going to start nibbling at H1B. The only reason it is not must be because there must be intense pressure from tech companies to not touch it.

[Zenzone]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuarta.../#684096c54513

Yes...Saw this already. There is NOTHING new other than restating rejection rates and denials and RFEs statistics and some speculation around what else could come up. Show me something that's net new. Also, here is another news for you -https://www.am22tech.com/h4-ead-news-termination/

[Zenzone]

https://www.cotton.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=1358

https://twitter.com/Lancegooden/stat...04157972795392

All these are just posturing because the House will likely strike down these bills but Trump can likely unilaterally keep extending the immigration bans until Satan Miller is satisfied.

Thanks for the share.

...Likewise, there is no reason why unemployed Americans and recent college graduates should have to compete in such a limited job market against an influx of additional H-1B workers, most of whom work in business, technology, or STEM fields.......Temporarily suspending the issuance of new H-1B visas would also protect the hundreds of thousands of H-1B workers and their families already working in the United States-workers who could otherwise be subject to deportation if they are laid off for more than 60 days. Of course, appropriate exceptions could also be crafted to the H-1B program suspension to allow for doctors, nurses, and other healthcare professionals who wish to come to the United States to assist in combating the coronavirus pandemic....best part in their letter

[qesehmk]

Recent college graduates and H1Bs do not compete for the same jobs. H1Bs are skilled people. But yes a genuine argument may exist for experienced laid off Americans. The reality is - the kind of work H1Bs do is so specialized that it will materially and negatively affect those industries. The department of labor and USCIS are not doing any favor to Indians by giving them H1s. The Indian H1s do provide liquidity to labor market in tech sector. Same is true with mexican H2 workers.

Trump already said H2 will continue. As much as he would like to do away with H1, I do think it is not easy. His administration will certainly take steps to curtain. The wise thing for them to do would be to simply let the H1 die by attrition and curtail new H1. My guess is that is exactly what they will do in near future.

Thanks for the share.

...Likewise, there is no reason why unemployed Americans and recent college graduates should have to compete in such a limited job market against an influx of additional H-1B workers, most of whom work in business, technology, or STEM fields.......Temporarily suspending the issuance of new H-1B visas would also protect the hundreds of thousands of H-1B workers and their families already working in the United States-workers who could otherwise be subject to deportation if they are laid off for more than 60 days. Of course, appropriate exceptions could also be crafted to the H-1B program suspension to allow for doctors, nurses, and other healthcare professionals who wish to come to the United States to assist in combating the coronavirus pandemic....best part in their letter

[Zenzone]

Thank you. Good information. I have a fear that this is active resistance rather than posturing.

Unless courts strike it down the ban will extend and broaden to other categories.

p.s. - If you read history - every single anarchist fastist terrorist person wrote it down long before what he was going to do. We fail to heed these signs and think this is empty rhetoric. Mark my words - they are going to start nibbling at H1B. The only reason it is not must be because there must be intense pressure from tech companies to not touch it.

Yes. The active resistance has been there since Apr 22nd. I agree there will be something done to please the base. But its an interesting twist in DHS's today's filing on the H4 EAD litigation. I'm confused...so to say!

[Zenzone]

Recent college graduates and H1Bs do not compete for the same jobs. H1Bs are skilled people. But yes a genuine argument may exist for experienced laid off Americans. The reality is - the kind of work H1Bs do is so specialized that it will materially and negatively affect those industries. The department of labor and USCIS are not doing any favor to Indians by giving them H1s. The Indian H1s do provide liquidity to labor market in tech sector. Same is true with mexican H2 workers.

Trump already said H2 will continue. As much as he would like to do away with H1, I do think it is not easy. His administration will certainly take steps to curtain. The wise thing for them to do would be to simply let the H1 die by attrition and curtail new H1. My guess is that is exactly what they will do in near future.

Yes. Possible. But this excerpt below is something I copied and pasted from Tom Cotton's letter as they argue that a ban on new h1bs will also protect existing h1b workers already in the country so was sharing with a lil chuckle -

Likewise, there is no reason why unemployed Americans and recent college graduates should have to compete in such a limited job market against an influx of additional H-1B workers, most of whom work in business, technology, or STEM fields.......Temporarily suspending the issuance of new H-1B visas would also protect the hundreds of thousands of H-1B workers and their families already working in the United States-workers who could otherwise be subject to deportation if they are laid off for more than 60 days. Of course, appropriate exceptions could also be crafted to the H-1B program suspension to allow for doctors, nurses, and other healthcare professionals who wish to come to the United States to assist in combating the coronavirus pandemic.

[qesehmk]

Yes. Possible. But this excerpt below is something I copied and pasted from Tom Cotton's letter as they argue that a ban on new h1bs will also protect existing h1b workers already in the country so was sharing with a lil chuckle -

Likewise, there is no reason why unemployed Americans and recent college graduates should have to compete in such a limited job market against an influx of additional H-1B workers, most of whom work in business, technology, or STEM fields.......Temporarily suspending the issuance of new H-1B visas would also protect the hundreds of thousands of H-1B workers and their families already working in the United States-workers who could otherwise be subject to deportation if they are laid off for more than 60 days. Of course, appropriate exceptions could also be crafted to the H-1B program suspension to allow for doctors, nurses, and other healthcare professionals who wish to come to the United States to assist in combating the coronavirus pandemic.

That's wolf in sheep's clothing for you. You can believe his argument to your own detriment.

[NJMavarick]

Thanks for your analysis. FB spillover to EB catagory is congress mandated law right? also as per this lawyer tweet, "26,000 green cards a month will move over to the employment based system, in October of this year"

https://twitter.com/wstock215/status...029779969?s=20

I would read that tweet with a pinch of salt. FB to EB spill over is a rule that has been followed but it all depends upon the Admin. However, as Q mentioned, the admin will be passive in their approach and spill over will happen. How much? I estimate between 50-100K. The ban will be extended for sure leading to an increase in spill over numbers.

I am cautiously optimistic.

[excalibur123]

That's wolf in sheep's clothing for you. You can believe his argument to your own detriment.

You are judging him too harshly. Any concrete reasons for that?

I find him quite logical with most of the things.

[qesehmk]

You are judging him too harshly. Any concrete reasons for that?

I find him quite logical with most of the things.

How many H1B are hired to replace existing H1B? It almost never happens. 0.1% perhaps? So asking to stop issuing H1B to protect existing H1Bs is disingenuous.

Secondly he raises the 60 day window to let the base know that that's what's possible. But then he doesn't ask for a provision that says if an H1B is laid off due to COVID suspend such deportation.

[oraclept]

Q. in normal cases . no one would care. I think there is lot of talent pool sitting at home. Real tech people in affected industries are laid off. most of tech people coming to work in IT. doesnt really posses rare skill set. with quick training on board.. talent pool siting at home in US will work IMO. getting another high paid 100k h1b/l1 will not help the country which is already struggling with 30 M unemployment

[qesehmk]

Q. in normal cases . no one would care. I think there is lot of talent pool sitting at home. Real tech people in affected industries are laid off. most of tech people coming to work in IT. doesnt really posses rare skill set. with quick training on board.. talent pool siting at home in US will work IMO. getting another high paid 100k h1b/l1 will not help the country which is already struggling with 30 M unemployment

I dont have a problem saying 30M unemployment warrants new H1B be stopped.

I do have a problem when the argument comes in a disingenuous manner as I stated above.

We have seen this movie again and again.

Current immigrants wanna be think
oh they are only against Illegal immigration ... then they start talking about family migration as chain migration ... and we convince ourselves ... yeah that's right immigration should be about skills not family ... then they talk about EB green cards and then H1B and someday you will realize it was never about employment.

This was pure racism plain and simple when they will talk about white immigration being ok but brown is not ok.

Oh wait .... they actually said it back in 2016!!!

Sorry for the drama ... except what I wrote is absolutely true. Bottomline - never ever do the bidding of the racists.