Excuse my ignorance, but
- why are EB2 numbers for China/India so low ?
- Why is EB1 China number so much higher than EB1 India ?
Excuse my ignorance, but
- why are EB2 numbers for China/India so low ?
- Why is EB1 China number so much higher than EB1 India ?
Remember these are figures for Consular Processing approvals only.Originally Posted by newyorker123
The figures do not include AOS cases, which make up around 90% of overall approvals within EB1 to EB3.
India in particular does not have very many people who use the Consular Processing route. For example, in FY2017, it was 0.9% for EB1, 2.5% for Eb2 and around 3.1% for EB3 of the total approvals.
In FY2017, China had higher figures for these categories (10.2%, 4.5%, 15.9%).
As you can see, The EB1 use of CP by China is very different to India. Current months show no use because the EB1 FAD has been retrogressed to 01JAN12 since April.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
August CO Visa Issuance data is out.
Here is the 2018 August DOS data.
China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total EB1 00 00 01 00 00 00 25 26 EB2 10 01 02 31 85 03 91 229 EB3 011 088 018 356 29 08 345 855 EB4 003 004 000 011 000 003 109 130 EB5 060 033 008 003 027 000 108 239 Total 84 126 029 401 141 014 684 1479
YOD DOS Data total.
China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total EB1 1457 0183 0074 0012 0281 0018 1821 3846 EB2 0089 0069 0042 0370 1149 0032 1358 3109 EB3 0509 0744 0217 4727 0446 0093 3678 10414 EB4 036 188 005 057 036 041 1356 1719 EB5 3782 0348 0066 0012 0438 0658 1934 7238 Total 5873 1532 0404 5178 2350 0842 10147 26326
Here is the 2018 September DOS data.
China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total EB1 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 08 EB2 02 06 00 01 00 00 01 10 EB3 017 003 007 242 09 06 049 333 EB4 003 000 000 000 000 001 095 099 EB5 379 046 000 000 025 000 119 569 Total 401 055 007 243 034 007 272 1019
2018 Year DOS Data total.
China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total EB1 1457 0183 0074 0012 0281 0018 1829 3854 EB2 0091 0075 0042 0371 1149 0032 1359 3119 EB3 0526 0747 0224 4969 0455 0099 3727 10747 EB4 039 188 005 057 036 042 1451 1818 EB5 4161 0394 0066 0012 0463 0658 2053 7807 Total 6274 1587 0411 5421 2384 0849 10419 27345
2018 Year DOS Data total.
China India Mexico Philippines ROW Total FB 12245 15593 28120 14826 140857 211641 EB 6274 1587 0411 5421 13652 27345 Total 18519 17180 28531 20247 154509 238986
OCTOBER DOS Data total.
China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total EB1 030 001 005 000 002 000 073 111 EB2 021 001 000 021 121 005 169 338 EB3 015 122 046 511 064 010 511 1279 EB4 000 020 000 007 015 000 129 171 EB5 358 035 000 000 022 125 125 665 Total 424 179 051 539 224 140 1007 2564
Here is the 2018 November DOS data.
China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total EB1 56 35 00 00 13 03 39 146 EB2 14 05 05 16 134 01 147 322 EB3 017 150 014 389 049 004 616 1239 EB4 00 25 00 05 00 01 119 150 EB5 133 027 000 002 014 047 091 314 Total 220 242 019 412 210 056 1012 2171
Here is the 2018 December DOS data.
China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total EB1 40 14 01 00 10 00 61 126 EB2 12 03 01 21 122 02 103 264 EB3 025 105 029 356 051 000 525 1091 EB4 00 15 00 04 00 01 142 161 EB5 413 046 004 002 029 033 171 698 Total 490 183 035 383 212 035 1002 2340
2019 YOD DOS Data total.
China India Mexico Philippines ROW Total FB 4072 4420 8634 4539 44430 66095 EB 1343 0882 0143 1754 5260 9382 Total 5415 5302 8777 6293 49690 75477
Here is the 2019 January DOS data.
China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total EB1 104 15 00 00 13 01 88 221 EB2 09 07 05 10 152 02 136 321 EB3 011 226 031 404 050 016 688 1426 EB4 03 08 02 04 01 08 141 167 EB5 082 022 000 002 000 012 054 172 Total 209 278 038 420 216 039 1107 2307
Here is the 2019 Feb DOS data.
China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total EB1 68 18 07 00 09 00 131 233 EB2 12 02 03 15 83 04 172 291 EB3 004 200 084 353 038 002 574 1255 EB4 00 07 08 08 00 04 157 184 EB5 364 017 002 003 002 019 138 545 Total 448 244 104 379 132 029 1172 2508
Filings under EB2 is slowing down, which is a piece of good news to EB2I. Also in EB3, there is a steady increase in the volume, in the future not sure how this will impact.
Here is the 2019 March DOS data.
China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total EB1 59 15 04 00 09 00 143 230 EB2 22 07 02 19 117 03 169 339 EB3 024 208 061 424 046 020 529 1312 EB4 00 05 03 02 01 15 123 149 EB5 133 020 000 000 020 016 042 231 Total 238 255 070 445 193 054 1006 2261
Interesting Data point in AOS at consular processing is total number of AOS in Q1 is 7075 and in Q2 it is 7076.
When compared with 2018, applications number is down by 2088 untill Q2.
Also Family based AOS at consular processing is down by 12307.
Hopefully this Employment AOS low number might show some positive impact on EB2.
redsox,
Thanks as ever for posting the figures.
It's interesting that Family based Consular approvals are so low, since they represent the majority of FB approvals.
That said, CO has 6 months to corrrect that and all FB categories are retrogressed.
I think it's worth taking a deeper dive into the EB consular approval figures. Although around 2k lower than this point last year, the individual categories show differing trends.
FY2019 vs FY2018
--Diff to Date--
EB1 --- (1,846)
EB2 ------- 43
EB3 ---- 1,978
EB4 ------ 188
EB5 --- (2,451)
Total - (2,088)
With EB1, the category was Current for everybody in Q1/Q2 in FY2018 and has been retrogressed for the entire time in FY2019. The vast majority of EB1 approvals for FY2018 took place in Q1/Q2 (76%), after which EB1-I/C became heavily retrogressed, with ROW also retrogressing for the last 2 months of FY2018.
To sum up, it's not really comparing apples with apples.
The large increase in EB3 has come primarily from India (765 = 310% increase) and ROW (1,519 = 67% increase)
I'm not entirely sure what's going on with EB5.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
April Consular Processing of the AOS.
Here is the 2019 April DOS data.
China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total EB1 59 19 00 00 17 00 104 199 EB2 12 06 02 20 64 04 168 276 EB3 025 179 054 336 027 013 518 1152 EB4 03 07 14 09 07 00 202 242 EB5 533 104 020 001 187 116 437 1398 Total 632 315 090 366 302 133 1429 3267
Compared to the previous month, EB5 went up by 1167, China, South Korea and VET visas went up. India also went up.
Overall Eb5 utilization is 4K
On the other hand Family-based is slowing down, compared to the previous year to the same period, it is 16k less.
The slowing down of family based is indeed good news. Looks like the administration policies to slow down family based immigration is indeed working. Some spillover from FB, even if it is a few thousands visas will definitely help EB2I and EB3I
DOS publishes a detailed breakdown of each month's CP approvals by Category and Country. Each month can be found here.
redsox usually publishes a breakdown each month and cumulative figures (although hasn't yet for the May figures).
Here's a breakdown for FY2019 until the end of May 2019 for both EB and FB:
Country --------- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 --- Total
China ----------- 461 ---- 120 ---- 144 ------ 6 -- 2,418 --- 3,149
India ----------- 142 ----- 35 -- 1,365 ----- 91 ---- 350 --- 1,983
Mexico ----------- 17 ----- 22 ---- 380 ----- 36 ----- 38 ----- 493
Philippines ------- 1 ---- 145 -- 3,055 ----- 43 ----- 10 --- 3,254
ROW ------------- 903 -- 2,132 -- 4,914 -- 1,228 -- 2,174 -- 11,351
Grand Total --- 1,524 -- 2,454 -- 9,858 -- 1,404 -- 4,990 -- 20,230
Country --------- FB1 --- FB2A --- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 --- Total
China ----------- 291 -- 2,025 ---- 485 -- 1,141 -- 3,409 --- 7,351
India ----------- 139 ---- 626 ----- 66 -- 2,793 -- 4,806 --- 8,430
Mexico ---------- 900 - 11,627 ---- 508 ---- 730 -- 1,877 -- 15,642
Philippines --- 1,036 -- 2,451 -- 3,147 ---- 780 -- 1,842 --- 9,256
ROW ---------- 12,231 - 29,592 -- 8,568 - 10,229 - 22,191 -- 82,811
Grand Total -- 14,597 - 46,321 - 12,774 - 15,673 - 34,125 - 123,490
I hope redsox will return to publishing the figures in future.
The last numbers for cases waiting for Consular Processing at the NVC was as at November 1st 2018. https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...tItem_2018.pdf
At that time, there were 21,385 EB3-I Skilled Worker/Professional cases on the list, but this covers all cases with an approved I-140 who chose Consular Processing and covers PD far beyond those that are Current. As such, the numbers are perhaps something of a 'red herring'.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I'm not sure I entirely understand the comment.
By the time EB3-I passed July 2007 PD, all new AOS applications needed an interview. The USCIS Pending Inventory would never have shown more than a handful - most new EB3-I cases were at either NBC or a Field Office and completely invisible to us.
We've never known (even at the most basic level) how many EB3-I cases were generated when the Filing Date of 01APR10 for EB3-I was allowed in January 2019.
Added to that, there have been far more Consular approvals of EB3-I cases than ever before and these would not have shown on a USCIS Inventory anyway.
EB3-I Consular approvals for FY2019
Oct ----- 122
Nov ----- 150
Dec ----- 105
Jan ----- 226
Feb ----- 200
Mar ----- 208
Apr ----- 179
May ----- 175
Jun ----- ???
Jul ----- ???
Aug ----- ???
Sep ----- ???
Total - 1,365
That's around 2/3 of the calculated 2,018 visas that might have been issued to EB3-I, at 9% per month, until the end of May.
That compares to 747 for the whole of FY2018 (458 to the end of May) and 150 - 200 in previous full FYs.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
The PI numbers only show AOS cases (I-485 which USCIS process). Consular cases are processed by DOS at the consulates, where they issue an Immigrant visa.
Consular approvals for EB2-I to the end of May are a mere 35 cases. Historically, the number is less than a 75 - 150 per FY, with recent years being on the lower side.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
That's how it seems.
Either they've still got the original job offer from when they chose Consular Processing, or, they've had another I-140 approved for a different employer and retained the earlier priority date.
EB2-I crossed July 2007 in late 2011. EB3-I only did so in April 2018. That's a long time for people to hang on in the USA without an I-485 filed. Maybe it explains why there is such an increase in Consular approvals for EB3-I.
I'm a little surprised at the numbers though, given they still need a provable job offer after all this time and still want to come to the USA.
The breakdown is quite interesting.
E31 Skilled worker --------------------------- 377
E32 Professional holding baccalaureate degree -- 7
E34 Spouse of E31 or E32 --------------------- 393
E35 Child of E31 or E32 ---------------------- 582
EW3 Other worker (subgroup numerical limit) ---- 2
EW4 Spouse of EW3 ------------------------------ 2
EW5 Child of EW3 ------------------------------- 2
Total -------------------------------------- 1,365
Lots of Skilled Workers, not many Professional. That may just be quite clever immigration lawyers, since it obviates any problems with degree equivalency, but would make it harder to get the initial PERM approval. Impossible to say.
The number of Dependents @ 2.5 per primary (for non Other Workers) is also quite high, but again, not very surprising given the amount of time that has elapsed.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
DOS have released the latest CP figures for June 2019.
Cumulatively, here is the situation for Oct-June (9 months of FY2019).
Country --------- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 --- Total
China ----------- 494 ---- 138 ---- 172 ------ 7 -- 3,041 --- 3,852
India ----------- 143 ----- 44 -- 1,520 ----- 97 ---- 389 --- 2,193
Mexico ----------- 18 ----- 26 ---- 496 ----- 44 ----- 49 ----- 633
Philippines ------- 1 ---- 162 -- 3,432 ----- 55 ----- 11 --- 3,661
ROW ----------- 1,156 -- 2,496 -- 5,651 -- 1,394 -- 2,522 -- 13,219
Grand Total --- 1,812 -- 2,866 - 11,271 -- 1,597 -- 6,012 -- 23,558
Oct-Jun FY2018 was 23,023.
Full FY2018 was 27,345.
Country --------- FB1 --- FB2A --- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 --- Total
China ----------- 319 -- 2,225 ---- 593 -- 1,215 -- 4,117 --- 8,469
India ----------- 164 ---- 685 ----- 73 -- 3,029 -- 5,517 --- 9,468
Mexico ---------- 958 - 12,423 ---- 563 ---- 823 -- 2,050 -- 16,817
Philippines --- 1,206 -- 2,660 -- 3,485 ---- 890 -- 2,042 -- 10,283
ROW ---------- 13,469 - 32,160 - 10,028 - 11,536 - 25,822 -- 93,015
Grand Total -- 16,116 - 50,153 - 14,742 - 17,493 - 39,548 - 138,052
Oct-Jun FY2018 was 160,029
Full FY2018 was 211,641.
I know people are interested as to whether there might be spillover of FB visas to Employment Based in FY2020.
Currently, FY2019 has 21,977 less CP approvals for FB than there were in FY2018 at the same point in time.
If the average use continues for the rest of FY2019, then SO would be in the region of 27.5k.
If the average use continues at the high end of use in FY2018 (c. 19k/month), then SO would be in the region of 16.5k.
Both cases assume that AOS approvals for FB are the same in FY2018 and FY2019.
The most plausible scenario is a figure between the two cases.
CO has advanced Cut Off Dates for FB, so we might expect some increase in approvals for the remainder of the FY.
On the other hand, recent months have only seen <15K FB approvals per month, so a huge increase in the remaining time might be quite difficult to achieve.
Although I have explained the rationale for the above figures, the above is very speculative, so treat it as such. Normally, I would not speculate. I give the figures only because I realize it is of great interest to everyone.
Personally, I think some SO is now inevitable, but the amount will only become clear as DOS releases the remaining 3 months data.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Here is the 2019 July DOS data.
China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total EB1 84 07 00 00 40 05 206 342 EB2 12 00 03 11 183 04 176 389 EB3 057 160 151 525 061 012 642 1608 EB4 00 08 00 02 10 16 172 218 EB5 183 051 013 000 085 118 244 694 Total 336 236 167 538 379 155 1440 3251
Just to add to redsox2009 post, cumulatively, here is the situation for Oct-July (10 months of FY2019).
Country --------- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 --- Total
China ----------- 578 ---- 150 ---- 229 ------ 7 -- 3,224 --- 4,188
India ----------- 150 ----- 44 -- 1,680 ---- 115 ---- 440 --- 2,429
Mexico ----------- 18 ----- 29 ---- 647 ----- 44 ----- 62 ----- 800
Philippines ------- 1 ---- 173 -- 3,957 ----- 57 ----- 11 --- 4,199
ROW ----------- 1,407 -- 2,859 -- 6,366 -- 1,592 -- 2,969 -- 15,193
Grand Total --- 2,154 -- 3,255 - 12,879 -- 1,815 -- 6,706 -- 26,809
Oct-Jul FY2018 was 24,847.
Full FY2018 was 27,345.
Country --------- FB1 --- FB2A --- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 --- Total
China ----------- 350 -- 2,304 ---- 705 -- 1,313 -- 5,146 --- 9,818
India ----------- 182 ---- 721 ---- 147 -- 3,642 -- 6,117 -- 10,809
Mexico ---------- 982 - 13,209 ---- 613 ---- 843 -- 2,074 -- 17,721
Philippines --- 1,563 -- 2,844 -- 3,792 -- 1,018 -- 2,303 -- 11,520
ROW ---------- 14,871 - 34,203 - 11,858 - 12,809 - 31,012 - 104,753
Grand Total -- 17,948 - 53,281 - 17,115 - 19,625 - 46,652 - 154,621
Oct-Jul FY2018 was 178,295
Full FY2018 was 211,641.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
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