Unofficial PERM Certifications As At End Of May FY2017

[Spectator]

Unofficial PERM Certifications As At End Of May FY2017

At End of May 2017
Country/Group - FY2017 ---- FY2016 ---- FY2015 ---- FY2014
CHINA ---------- 5,638 ----- 6,787 ----- 4,081 ----- 2,786
INDIA --------- 33,847 ---- 42,647 ---- 29,528 ---- 22,171
MEXICO --------- 1,397 ----- 1,473 ------- 919 ------- 913
PHILIPPINES ------ 919 ----- 1,349 ------- 828 ----- 1,007
ROW ----------- 19,214 ---- 23,877 ---- 13,721 ---- 13,105

Grand Total --- 61,017 ---- 76,133 ---- 49,077 ---- 39,982

Note:- DOL did not publish data for May 11, 2017 so the figures will actually be 200-500 higher than above.

Although FY2017 to date is around 20% lower than FY2016, this needs to be put into historical context.

FY2016 was by far and away the most PERM certifications ever seen in a FY. If PERM certifications continue at the present rate, then FY2017 will have around 90k certifications, making it the second highest ever. Here's the historical FY certification figures:

FY2016 - 115,933
FY2015 -- 78,938
FY2014 -- 62,633
FY2013 -- 35,202
FY2012 -- 54,616
FY2011 -- 59,863
FY2010 -- 70,237
FY2009 -- 29,502
FY2008 -- 49,205
FY2007 -- 85,112

ROW (No M & P) is on track for about 29k certifications in FY2017 if the rate continues to the end of the FY. This compares to the following historical FY numbers:

FY2016 -- 36,080
FY2015 -- 23,220
FY2014 -- 20,167
FY2013 -- 10,491
FY2012 -- 18,216
FY2011 -- 21,173
FY2010 -- 30,644
FY2009 -- 13,597
FY2008 -- 22,869
FY2007 -- 42,430

Because of the lag time between PERM certification and eventual I-485 approval, the effects of FY2017 PERM certifications will be felt well in to FY2018 for I-485 approvals.

[4WatItsWorth]

Wonderful analysis! Thanks, Spec. Can the ~7k reduction in RoW certifications mean equivalent number of spillover visas to backlogged countries, may be, next year?

[Spectator]

Wonderful analysis! Thanks, Spec. Can the ~7k reduction in RoW certifications mean equivalent number of spillover visas to backlogged countries, may be, next year?

4WatItsWorth,

That would depend on a number factors, including lag time, certification rate and retrogression of EB2-ROW in FY2017 to name a few.

CO has indicated that he expects EB2-ROW to retrogress by August 2017. This would push an extra 2 months of approvals into FY2018.

If the certification rate doesn't drop by a large amount and EB2-ROW retrogresses in August as CO expects, then it would be difficult to see any Fall Across within EB2 from ROW in FY2018.

If EB2-ROW doesn't retrogress in FY2017, than a small amount might be possible.

[4WatItsWorth]

4WatItsWorth,

That would depend on a number factors, including lag time, certification rate and retrogression of EB2-ROW in FY2017 to name a few.

CO has indicated that he expects EB2-ROW to retrogress by August 2017. This would push an extra 2 months of approvals into FY2018.

If the certification rate doesn't drop by a large amount and EB2-ROW retrogresses in August as CO expects, then it would be difficult to see any Fall Across within EB2 from ROW in FY2018.

If EB2-ROW doesn't retrogress in FY2017, than a small amount might be possible.

I guess I was trying to see a silver lining that is not really there. Thanks again for explaining so clearly, though.