Unofficial PERM Certifications As At End Of Q2 FY2017

[Spectator]

Unofficial PERM Certifications As At End Of Q2 FY2017

Also shown (for reference) are the figures at the same point for FY2014 to FY2016

Country/Group - FY2017 ---- FY2016 ---- FY2015 ---- FY2014
CHINA ---------- 4,057 ----- 5,054 ----- 3,068 ----- 1,829
INDIA --------- 24,483 ---- 30,982 ---- 21,718 ---- 14,522
MEXICO --------- 1,004 ----- 1,104 ------- 678 ------- 602
PHILIPPINES ------ 661 ----- 1,045 ------- 648 ------- 684
ROW ----------- 14,040 ---- 17,871 ---- 10,233 ----- 8,535
UNKNOWN ------------ 6 --------- 0 --------- 0 --------- 0

Grand Total --- 44,251 ---- 56,056 ---- 36,345 ---- 26,172

[GCdreamz]

Unofficial PERM Certifications As At End Of Q2 FY2017

Also shown (for reference) are the figures at the same point for FY2014 to FY2016

Country/Group - FY2017 ---- FY2016 ---- FY2015 ---- FY2014
CHINA ---------- 4,057 ----- 5,054 ----- 3,068 ----- 1,829
INDIA --------- 24,483 ---- 30,982 ---- 21,718 ---- 14,522
MEXICO --------- 1,004 ----- 1,104 ------- 678 ------- 602
PHILIPPINES ------ 661 ----- 1,045 ------- 648 ------- 684
ROW ----------- 14,040 ---- 17,871 ---- 10,233 ----- 8,535
UNKNOWN ------------ 6 --------- 0 --------- 0 --------- 0

Grand Total --- 44,251 ---- 56,056 ---- 36,345 ---- 26,172

Hi, Based stats provided by you there are nearly 12K less petitions in first half of 2017. ROW had nearly 4K less petitions. Is it reasonable to expect around 4K spillover to EB2I/EB3I?

Also, according to below links, South Korea had 7535 approved petitions in 2016 and just 1291 in first six months of 2017. Assuming South Korea applies for another 1291 petitions the total of 2582 is nearly 5K lesser than last year's approved S Korea petitions, can we expect at least 4K spillover to EB2I/EB3I?
https://www.permchecker.com/this-year
https://www.permchecker.com/2016

Assuming South Korea will have effect on spill over since they used 5157 (EB2) & 6153 (EB3) visas in 2016.

I think in next one or two bulletins, if EB2I date moves to Oct 1st 2009 the above theory has a chance.

[GCdreamz]

Apart from no Spillover from EB1, South Korea used more EB2 Visas in 2016.

In 2017 fiscal year’s first half, South Korea applied for 2783 vs 4188 in 2016 i.e 1405 lesser petitions. If same trend continues for last six months 1405+1405 =2810 more EB2 visas.

With nearly 2810 extra visas + EB2 India’s 2016 allocation of 3930, we might get 6740 Visas in 2017. 6740 visas will help in clearing inventory till Apr 2009 or better date by Sep 2017 (based on inventory data).

Using 6700 as estimate for 2018 allocation, USCIS might set Date of Filing to Oct 2009 or better date on Oct 2017.

Also, Nearly 10K lesser PERM petitions in first half of 2017….is raising my expectation for more spillover to EB2/EB3 India.

Approved PERM certifications, in 2016’s First Six Months - 53,776
https://www.permchecker.com/10-01-2015/to/03-31-2016

Approved PERM certifications, in 2017’s First Six Months – 44,208
https://www.permchecker.com/10-01-2016/to/03-31-2017

Note: Better dates possible if overall lesser PERM applications and South Korea’s PERM applications are divided between S Korea’s EB2 & EB3.

[suninphx]

Unofficial PERM Certifications As At End Of Q2 FY2017

Also shown (for reference) are the figures at the same point for FY2014 to FY2016

Country/Group - FY2017 ---- FY2016 ---- FY2015 ---- FY2014
CHINA ---------- 4,057 ----- 5,054 ----- 3,068 ----- 1,829
INDIA --------- 24,483 ---- 30,982 ---- 21,718 ---- 14,522
MEXICO --------- 1,004 ----- 1,104 ------- 678 ------- 602
PHILIPPINES ------ 661 ----- 1,045 ------- 648 ------- 684
ROW ----------- 14,040 ---- 17,871 ---- 10,233 ----- 8,535
UNKNOWN ------------ 6 --------- 0 --------- 0 --------- 0

Grand Total --- 44,251 ---- 56,056 ---- 36,345 ---- 26,172

Thanks Spec!

So 20% drop across the board. Is this a trend yet?

[imdeng]

The horrible immigration optics right now are surely having an impact. We will likely see across the board reductions in all kinds of immigration activities - B1 Visitors, B2 Tourists, H1B Filings, EB Filings, F1 Students - all of it. The scale of it remains to be seem. Whether they remain short term and then bounce back later also remains to be seen. Its almost like what happened in 2008/2009 - its a recession for immigration of all kinds. The dip in 2008/2009 was much deeper and helped create the 2012 EAD Boom. Lets see how far the 2017 dip goes.

I think ROW figures are still high enough to consume much of EB2 space despite slowdown (14K*2*2 = 56K Visas, assuming 2 visas per perm). Once they start resembling 2014 figures, then there will be slack enough to make a serious dent in the backlog.

Thanks Spec!

So 20% drop across the board. Is this a trend yet?

[iatiam]

The horrible immigration optics right now are surely having an impact. We will likely see across the board reductions in all kinds of immigration activities - B1 Visitors, B2 Tourists, H1B Filings, EB Filings, F1 Students - all of it. The scale of it remains to be seem. Whether they remain short term and then bounce back later also remains to be seen. Its almost like what happened in 2008/2009 - its a recession for immigration of all kinds. The dip in 2008/2009 was much deeper and helped create the 2012 EAD Boom. Lets see how far the 2017 dip goes.

I think ROW figures are still high enough to consume much of EB2 space despite slowdown (14K*2*2 = 56K Visas, assuming 2 visas per perm). Once they start resembling 2014 figures, then there will be slack enough to make a serious dent in the backlog.

Good Obeservation Deng! I was also wondering what would be the impact of the recent changes that DHS suggested. The two which came out yesterday are,
1. Not treating computer programmers as specialized occupation.
2. Enforcing site visits and audits for H1B dependent employers and companies which place their employees at client site.

Does item 1 mean that all H1B cases (new/renewal) for computer programmers will be scrutinized. Does item 2 mean that all Desi consultants would have problem getting H1B placed.

Perhaps Spec can give his opinion.

Iatiam

[imdeng]

They don't really need to do anything except *signal* that they are going to scrutinize. The expectation is that companies will respond to the signal and scale back their plans. It is already happening - there have been news stories about desi IT companies not sponsoring junior employees for on-site work, F1 applications are down, tourist arrivals are down - people are responding to the signal. I personally know of people who had job offers from US and elsewhere and they chose to go elsewhere - partly because of the current immigration backlog and climate.

I don't know specifics of the programming related work - so can't say much - people in the industry might be able to shed some light.

Good Obeservation Deng! I was also wondering what would be the impact of the recent changes that DHS suggested. The two which came out yesterday are,
1. Not treating computer programmers as specialized occupation.
2. Enforcing site visits and audits for H1B dependent employers and companies which place their employees at client site.

Does item 1 mean that all H1B cases (new/renewal) for computer programmers will be scrutinized. Does item 2 mean that all Desi consultants would have problem getting H1B placed.

Perhaps Spec can give his opinion.

Iatiam

[imdeng]

I just realized that Spec is using data on "Applications Processed" - not "Applications Received". Reduction in application processed may entirely be a function of processing speeds and may not mean a corresponding decline in applications received.

https://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta....FY_2016_Q4.pdf

[iatiam]

They don't really need to do anything except *signal* that they are going to scrutinize. The expectation is that companies will respond to the signal and scale back their plans. It is already happening - there have been news stories about desi IT companies not sponsoring junior employees for on-site work, F1 applications are down, tourist arrivals are down - people are responding to the signal. I personally know of people who had job offers from US and elsewhere and they chose to go elsewhere - partly because of the current immigration backlog and climate.

I don't know specifics of the programming related work - so can't say much - people in the industry might be able to shed some light.

This is again a good point. Free markets respond to signals. My wife was telling me that a lot of her friends chose to go back to India since the beginning of the year. Many of them thought it's just not worth the effort and the time to stay here waiting on the elusive GC. I also think that the job market will start easing up a bit more, putting more pressure on the visa system. Le't wait and see what happens.

Iatiam

[suninphx]

The horrible immigration optics right now are surely having an impact. We will likely see across the board reductions in all kinds of immigration activities - B1 Visitors, B2 Tourists, H1B Filings, EB Filings, F1 Students - all of it. The scale of it remains to be seem. Whether they remain short term and then bounce back later also remains to be seen. Its almost like what happened in 2008/2009 - its a recession for immigration of all kinds. The dip in 2008/2009 was much deeper and helped create the 2012 EAD Boom. Lets see how far the 2017 dip goes.

I think ROW figures are still high enough to consume much of EB2 space despite slowdown (14K*2*2 = 56K Visas, assuming 2 visas per perm). Once they start resembling 2014 figures, then there will be slack enough to make a serious dent in the backlog.

14k includes both EB2/3 I guess. Doesn't change your hypothesis though

[GCdreamz]

USCIS might set Date of Filing to Apr 2009 or better date by Sep 2017.

And for next year....Oct 2009 or better date on Oct 2017.

[chinnausa]

Is there similar type of Perm inventory from 2007 to 2014 ?