Educational Requirement Analysis of FY2016 Q2 Disclosure Data

[Spectator]

Please view with some caution, because the Q2 data appears incomplete (see previous post). There's also a degree of "art" in reviewing the Bachelors and Other data.


EB2
----------------- CHINA --- INDIA --- MEXICO -- PHILIPPINES ----- ROW -- Grand Total
Doctorate --------- 360 ----- 247 ------- 22 ------------ 9 --- 1,210 -------- 1,848
Masters --------- 2,604 -- 15,891 ------ 163 ---------- 153 --- 4,766 ------- 23,577
Bachelors + 5 ----- 187 --- 5,464 ------ 130 ---------- 100 --- 1,448 -------- 7,329
Other -------------- 30 ----- 607 ------- 15 ----------- 47 ----- 884 -------- 1,583

Total ----------- 3,181 -- 22,209 ----- 330 ----------- 309 --- 8,308 ------- 34,337
----------------- 68.1% --- 73.9% --- 30.9% --------- 30.1% --- 48.2% -------- 63.5%

EB3
----------------- CHINA --- INDIA --- MEXICO -- PHILIPPINES ----- ROW -- Grand Total
Bachelors --------- 812 --- 7,423 ------ 401 ---------- 406 --- 4,274 ------- 13,316
Associate's --------- 9 ----- 106 -------- 5 ------------ 8 ----- 220 -----------348
High School -------- 31 ------ 27 ------- 17 ----------- 74 ----- 543 ---------- 692
None -------------- 638 ----- 243 ------ 300 ---------- 218 --- 3,859 -------- 5,258
Other --------------- 1 ------ 51 ------- 16 ----------- 10 ------ 50 ---------- 128

Total ----------- 1,491 --- 7,850 ------ 739 ---------- 716 --- 8,946 ------- 19,742
----------------- 31.9% --- 26.1% ---- 69.1% -------- 69.9% --- 51.8% -------- 36.5%

Grand Total ----- 4,672 -- 30,059 ---- 1,069 -------- 1,025 -- 17,254 ------- 54,079


Just %

---------------- EB2 ----- EB3
CHINA --------- 68.1% --- 31.9%
INDIA --------- 73.9% --- 26.1%
MEXICO -------- 30.9% --- 69.1%
PHILIPPINES --- 30.1% --- 69.9%
ROW ----------- 48.2% --- 51.8%

Grand Total --- 63.5% --- 36.5%

The above represents only PERM cases. Additional to that are cases that do not require a PERM, such as NIW and Schedule A.

[Jagan01]

Please view with some caution, because the Q2 data appears incomplete (see previous post). There's also a degree of "art" in reviewing the Bachelors and Other data.


EB2
----------------- CHINA --- INDIA --- MEXICO -- PHILIPPINES ----- ROW -- Grand Total
Doctorate --------- 360 ----- 247 ------- 22 ------------ 9 --- 1,210 -------- 1,848
Masters --------- 2,604 -- 15,891 ------ 163 ---------- 153 --- 4,766 ------- 23,577
Bachelors + 5 ----- 187 --- 5,464 ------ 130 ---------- 100 --- 1,448 -------- 7,329
Other -------------- 30 ----- 607 ------- 15 ----------- 47 ----- 884 -------- 1,583

Total ----------- 3,181 -- 22,209 ----- 330 ----------- 309 --- 8,308 ------- 34,337
----------------- 68.1% --- 73.9% --- 30.9% --------- 30.1% --- 48.2% -------- 63.5%

EB3
----------------- CHINA --- INDIA --- MEXICO -- PHILIPPINES ----- ROW -- Grand Total
Bachelors --------- 812 --- 7,423 ------ 401 ---------- 406 --- 4,274 ------- 13,316
Associate's --------- 9 ----- 106 -------- 5 ------------ 8 ----- 220 -----------348
High School -------- 31 ------ 27 ------- 17 ----------- 74 ----- 543 ---------- 692
None -------------- 638 ----- 243 ------ 300 ---------- 218 --- 3,859 -------- 5,258
Other --------------- 1 ------ 51 ------- 16 ----------- 10 ------ 50 ---------- 128

Total ----------- 1,491 --- 7,850 ------ 739 ---------- 716 --- 8,946 ------- 19,742
----------------- 31.9% --- 26.1% ---- 69.1% -------- 69.9% --- 51.8% -------- 36.5%

Grand Total ----- 4,672 -- 30,059 ---- 1,069 -------- 1,025 -- 17,254 ------- 54,079


Just %

---------------- EB2 ----- EB3
CHINA --------- 68.1% --- 31.9%
INDIA --------- 73.9% --- 26.1%
MEXICO -------- 30.9% --- 69.1%
PHILIPPINES --- 30.1% --- 69.9%
ROW ----------- 48.2% --- 51.8%

Grand Total --- 63.5% --- 36.5%

The above represents only PERM cases. Additional to that are cases that do not require a PERM, such as NIW and Schedule A.

Awesome data. Do you have such data for last year ?

[Spectator]

Awesome data. Do you have such data for last year ?

Jagan,

OFLC only started releasing sufficient data from the Q3 FY2015 Disclosure Data. I have the detailed figures, but here is the summary % data for each quarter since the data has been released.


---------------- China ---------- India ----------- Mexico ------- Philippines --------- ROW ------------- All
------------ EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3
Q3 2015 --- 73.4% -- 26.6% -- 74.4% -- 25.6% -- 38.9% -- 61.1% -- 46.4% -- 53.6% -- 62.5% -- 37.5% -- 69.8% -- 30.2%
Q4 2015 --- 70.1% -- 29.9% -- 74.7% -- 25.3% -- 38.2% -- 61.8% -- 40.7% -- 59.3% -- 58.0% -- 42.0% -- 68.0% -- 32.0%
Q1 2016 --- 67.7% -- 32.3% -- 72.8% -- 27.2% -- 28.2% -- 71.8% -- 33.0% -- 67.0% -- 49.8% -- 50.2% -- 63.3% -- 36.7%
Q2 2016 --- 68.1% -- 31.9% -- 73.9% -- 26.1% -- 30.9% -- 69.1% -- 30.1% -- 69.9% -- 48.2% -- 51.8% -- 63.5% -- 36.5%

Once again, I would urge some caution in using the data.

[GCwaiting]

Jagan,

OFLC only started releasing sufficient data from the Q3 FY2015 Disclosure Data. I have the detailed figures, but here is the summary % data for each quarter since the data has been released.


---------------- China ---------- India ----------- Mexico ------- Philippines --------- ROW ------------- All
------------ EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3
Q3 2015 --- 73.4% -- 26.6% -- 74.4% -- 25.6% -- 38.9% -- 61.1% -- 46.4% -- 53.6% -- 62.5% -- 37.5% -- 69.8% -- 30.2%
Q4 2015 --- 70.1% -- 29.9% -- 74.7% -- 25.3% -- 38.2% -- 61.8% -- 40.7% -- 59.3% -- 58.0% -- 42.0% -- 68.0% -- 32.0%
Q1 2016 --- 67.7% -- 32.3% -- 72.8% -- 27.2% -- 28.2% -- 71.8% -- 33.0% -- 67.0% -- 49.8% -- 50.2% -- 63.3% -- 36.7%
Q2 2016 --- 68.1% -- 31.9% -- 73.9% -- 26.1% -- 30.9% -- 69.1% -- 30.1% -- 69.9% -- 48.2% -- 51.8% -- 63.5% -- 36.5%

Once again, I would urge some caution in using the data.

Great info...
Spec, the % here is refers to % increase over previous year?

The numbers for EB3-I & EB3-ROW is as follows
----------EB3-India--EB3-ROW
Q3 2015--25.6%-----37.5%
Q4 2015--25.3%-----42.0%
Q1 2016--27.2%-----50.2%
Q2 2016--26.1%-----51.8%

Based on the following
- These numbers,
- Recent statement made by CO, ---"Gradual forward movement is expected with a possible cutoff date around early 2005 by September Visa Bulletin."
- Last year EB3-ROW moved 4 years & still had good SO to EB3-I

By end Sept-2016
Would the SO from EB3-ROW to EB3-I be the at least same as last year ?
Approximately will EB3-I FAD reach 07/01/2005 ?

[Spectator]

Great info...
Spec, the % here is refers to % increase over previous year? NO.

The numbers for EB3-I & EB3-ROW is as follows
----------EB3-India--EB3-ROW
Q3 2015--25.6%-----37.5%
Q4 2015--25.3%-----42.0%
Q1 2016--27.2%-----50.2%
Q2 2016--26.1%-----51.8%

Based on the following
- These numbers,
- Recent statement made by CO, ---"Gradual forward movement is expected with a possible cutoff date around early 2005 by September Visa Bulletin."
- Last year EB3-ROW moved 4 years & still had good SO to EB3-I

By end Sept-2016
Would the SO from EB3-ROW to EB3-I be the at least same as last year ?
Approximately will EB3-I FAD reach 07/01/2005 ?

GCwaiting,

The % figures in the table refers to the relative % that appear to be EB2 or EB3 based on minimum educational requirements. Each set for a Country/Group for each period totals 100%.

To be clear, the EB3-ROW % of total EB-ROW certifications appeared to be 42.0% for all certifications in FY2015. For certifications up to the end of Q2 FY2016, the % that now appears to be EB3 is 51.8% i.e. there appears to be a shift towards more ROW PERM certifications under EB3, rather than EB2. It remains to be seen whether that translates to a greater number of I-485/CP approvals for ROW under EB3 and when any change may become apparent.


In FY2015, the FAD for EB3-ROW may have moved more than 4 years (01APR11 in Sept 2014 to 15AUG15 in Sept 2015). That is not the same as 4 years worth of EB-ROW cases were approved in FY2015. The FAD reached 15AUG15 in September 2015. It had previously reached 01OCT12 in April/May 2014. There were no approvals for 2015 PD cases in FY2015 and a considerable number of 2014 (and earlier) PD cases remained pending at the end of FY2015.

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

OFLC only started releasing sufficient data from the Q3 FY2015 Disclosure Data. I have the detailed figures, but here is the summary % data for each quarter since the data has been released.


---------------- China ---------- India ----------- Mexico ------- Philippines --------- ROW ------------- All
------------ EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3
Q3 2015 --- 73.4% -- 26.6% -- 74.4% -- 25.6% -- 38.9% -- 61.1% -- 46.4% -- 53.6% -- 62.5% -- 37.5% -- 69.8% -- 30.2%
Q4 2015 --- 70.1% -- 29.9% -- 74.7% -- 25.3% -- 38.2% -- 61.8% -- 40.7% -- 59.3% -- 58.0% -- 42.0% -- 68.0% -- 32.0%
Q1 2016 --- 67.7% -- 32.3% -- 72.8% -- 27.2% -- 28.2% -- 71.8% -- 33.0% -- 67.0% -- 49.8% -- 50.2% -- 63.3% -- 36.7%
Q2 2016 --- 68.1% -- 31.9% -- 73.9% -- 26.1% -- 30.9% -- 69.1% -- 30.1% -- 69.9% -- 48.2% -- 51.8% -- 63.5% -- 36.5%

Once again, I would urge some caution in using the data.

Spec,

Thanks for the data. At least the percentages mentioned seem to indicate an increase in EB3 percentage over EB2 percentage for EBROW, EBP and EBM.

In case you have the actual numbers then that can help as well. Basically the percentages tell a story of shift towards EB3 but the total number is also important in calculating whether total PERM certifications in EB2P + EB2M + EB2ROW increased as compared to FY15 or not.

Let me know if my question was not clear and I can rephrase it.

[GCwaiting]

GCwaiting,

The % figures in the table refers to the relative % that appear to be EB2 or EB3 based on minimum educational requirements. Each set for a Country/Group for each period totals 100%.

To be clear, the EB3-ROW % of total EB-ROW certifications appeared to be 42.0% for all certifications in FY2015. For certifications up to the end of Q2 FY2016, the % that now appears to be EB3 is 51.8% i.e. there appears to be a shift towards more ROW PERM certifications under EB3, rather than EB2. It remains to be seen whether that translates to a greater number of I-485/CP approvals for ROW under EB3 and when any change may become apparent.


In FY2015, the FAD for EB3-ROW may have moved more than 4 years (01APR11 in Sept 2014 to 15AUG15 in Sept 2015). That is not the same as 4 years worth of EB-ROW cases were approved in FY2015. The FAD reached 15AUG15 in September 2015. It had previously reached 01OCT12 in April/May 2014. There were no approvals for 2015 PD cases in FY2015 and a considerable number of 2014 (and earlier) PD cases remained pending at the end of FY2015.

Thanks for the clarification & update. Things are now clear.
Absolute numbers is what matters.
As Mr Jagan01 has asked, do you have the absolute numbers.

Based on your prediction, do you feel FAD can reach Filing date 07/01

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thanks for the data. At least the percentages mentioned seem to indicate an increase in EB3 percentage over EB2 percentage for EBROW, EBP and EBM.

In case you have the actual numbers then that can help as well. Basically the percentages tell a story of shift towards EB3 but the total number is also important in calculating whether total PERM certifications in EB2P + EB2M + EB2ROW increased as compared to FY15 or not.

Let me know if my question was not clear and I can rephrase it.

You only need to search the forum.

Q3 FY2015 numbers are here
Full FY2015 numbers are here
I didn't publish the breakdown of Q1 FY2016 numbers, but they are superseded by the Q2 figures anyway.


The (incomplete in my opinion) Q2 figures from the OFLC Disclosure Data are in a post in this thread. A more accurate breakdown (IMO) can be found here

At the end of Q2 FY2015, the PERM certification numbers were as follows (with the corrected Q2 FY2016 figures and % change):

------------- FY2015 -- FY2016 - % Change
CHINA -------- 3,068 --- 5,082 ---- 65.6%
INDIA ------- 21,718 -- 31,042 ---- 42.9%
MEXICO --------- 678 --- 1,104 ---- 62.8%
PHILIPPINES ---- 648 --- 1,046 ---- 61.4%
ROW --------- 10,233 -- 17,875 ---- 74.7%

Grand Total - 36,345 -- 56,149 ---- 54.5%

[waiting_for_gc]

You only need to search the forum.

Q3 FY2015 numbers are here
Full FY2015 numbers are here
I didn't publish the breakdown of Q1 FY2016 numbers, but they are superseded by the Q2 figures anyway.


The (incomplete in my opinion) Q2 figures from the OFLC Disclosure Data are in a post in this thread. A more accurate breakdown (IMO) can be found here

At the end of Q2 FY2015, the PERM certification numbers were as follows (with the corrected Q2 FY2016 figures and % change):

------------- FY2015 -- FY2016 - % Change
CHINA -------- 3,068 --- 5,082 ---- 65.6%
INDIA ------- 21,718 -- 31,042 ---- 42.9%
MEXICO --------- 678 --- 1,104 ---- 62.8%
PHILIPPINES ---- 648 --- 1,046 ---- 61.4%
ROW --------- 10,233 -- 17,875 ---- 74.7%

Grand Total - 36,345 -- 56,149 ---- 54.5%

So, based on these numbers, from 17k perm certification in ROW, if 50% are eb3, that will make it 8k and when added dependents, that will make it 17k demand + 12k pending inventory which makes it 29k demand from ROW and then we add China, Mexico and Philippines. Where does it leave the room for EB3-I spillover ? What am I missing ?

[Jagan01]

You only need to search the forum.

Q3 FY2015 numbers are here
Full FY2015 numbers are here
I didn't publish the breakdown of Q1 FY2016 numbers, but they are superseded by the Q2 figures anyway.


The (incomplete in my opinion) Q2 figures from the OFLC Disclosure Data are in a post in this thread. A more accurate breakdown (IMO) can be found here

At the end of Q2 FY2015, the PERM certification numbers were as follows (with the corrected Q2 FY2016 figures and % change):

------------- FY2015 -- FY2016 - % Change
CHINA -------- 3,068 --- 5,082 ---- 65.6%
INDIA ------- 21,718 -- 31,042 ---- 42.9%
MEXICO --------- 678 --- 1,104 ---- 62.8%
PHILIPPINES ---- 648 --- 1,046 ---- 61.4%
ROW --------- 10,233 -- 17,875 ---- 74.7%

Grand Total - 36,345 -- 56,149 ---- 54.5%

Thanks for the data Spec.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

You only need to search the forum.

Q3 FY2015 numbers are here
Full FY2015 numbers are here
I didn't publish the breakdown of Q1 FY2016 numbers, but they are superseded by the Q2 figures anyway.


The (incomplete in my opinion) Q2 figures from the OFLC Disclosure Data are in a post in this thread. A more accurate breakdown (IMO) can be found here

At the end of Q2 FY2015, the PERM certification numbers were as follows (with the corrected Q2 FY2016 figures and % change):

------------- FY2015 -- FY2016 - % Change
CHINA -------- 3,068 --- 5,082 ---- 65.6%
INDIA ------- 21,718 -- 31,042 ---- 42.9%
MEXICO --------- 678 --- 1,104 ---- 62.8%
PHILIPPINES ---- 648 --- 1,046 ---- 61.4%
ROW --------- 10,233 -- 17,875 ---- 74.7%

Grand Total - 36,345 -- 56,149 ---- 54.5%

Spec,

Do we have any report that tells us say how many EB3ROW Visas were granted in a particular Quarter?

[Spectator]

Spec,

Do we have any report that tells us say how many EB3ROW Visas were granted in a particular Quarter?

HarepathekaIntezar,

No. The only published report that gives information by Category and Country is that published by DOS for the full FY.

EB3-ROW had 125 approvals on Trackitt at the end of May. If the remaining months carry on at the level seen in May and the Trackitt representation were to be same as for FY2015, then EB3-ROW would reach 205 approvals in Trackitt, representing about 16k approvals.

Of course, the rate of approvals for the remainder of the FY for EB3-ROW may be different (either higher or lower) and the Trackitt representation for FY2016 may be different. There's no way to tell at present.

16k use by EB3-ROW would translate into about 11k total visas for EB3-I if China and Mexico each use 3k and Philippines use 7k. A 10-12k spread might be a reasonable guess, assuming EB3 receives all visas in its allocation and EB3-I receive all "otherwise unused" visas within EB3.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

HarepathekaIntezar,

No. The only published report that gives information by Category and Country is that published by DOS for the full FY.

EB3-ROW had 125 approvals on Trackitt at the end of May. If the remaining months carry on at the level seen in May and the Trackitt representation were to be same as for FY2015, then EB3-ROW would reach 205 approvals in Trackitt, representing about 16k approvals.

Of course, the rate of approvals for the remainder of the FY for EB3-ROW may be different (either higher or lower) and the Trackitt representation for FY2016 may be different. There's no way to tell at present.

16k use by EB3-ROW would translate into about 11k total visas for EB3-I if China and Mexico each use 3k and Philippines use 7k. A 10-12k spread might be a reasonable guess, assuming EB3 receives all visas in its allocation and EB3-I receive all "otherwise unused" visas within EB3.

Very sound logic!! But so far USCIS has issued RFE's equivalent to only about 2300 SO. They will need to open the RFE floodgates for another 9K RFE's. It is high time they did that.

[Spectator]

Very sound logic!! But so far USCIS has issued RFE's equivalent to only about 2300 SO. They will need to open the RFE floodgates for another 9K RFE's. It is high time they did that.

It's true I have tried to be logical in my reply. Unfortunately, that may not necessarily match reality when USCIS is involved!

The figures represent my assessment of the maximum theoretical numbers that EB3-I might receive based on the given assumptions. The ground reality is the actual numbers allocated may be less than that for a variety of reasons.

I agree it is somewhat worrying that reported RFE PD dates do not yet match where they might need to go. Hopefully that will change.

[EB3Iwaiting]

I agree it is somewhat worrying that reported RFE PD dates do not yet match where they might need to go. Hopefully that will change.

Thanks for your insight Spec. Let's say EB3I ends up getting 10k. That would mean going to end of 2005. We know they have already issued RFEs till Feb 2005. That would mean another 10 months. Last year, they started issuing RFEs from July 2 and in the last 2 months, EB3I moved 10 months. It is tragic that EB3I then retrogressed 9 months since CO misallocated the visas. The first 10 months or more got wasted in trying to overcome that. But the point is, if CO still thinks that EB3I will move another 10 months in this FY, then they can do what they did last year o issue RFEs from July and cover another 10 months.

I am really hoping to see REFs start rolling out in July. If it doesn't by then, then it should be worrying.

[anuprab]

Thanks for your insight Spec. Let's say EB3I ends up getting 10k. That would mean going to end of 2005. We know they have already issued RFEs till Feb 2005. That would mean another 10 months. Last year, they started issuing RFEs from July 2 and in the last 2 months, EB3I moved 10 months. It is tragic that EB3I then retrogressed 9 months since CO misallocated the visas. The first 10 months or more got wasted in trying to overcome that. But the point is, if CO still thinks that EB3I will move another 10 months in this FY, then they can do what they did last year o issue RFEs from July and cover another 10 months.

I am really hoping to see REFs start rolling out in July. If it doesn't by then, then it should be worrying.

you think they will waste visas? My worry is since they have issued RFE for EB2 folks into 2009, they might allocate those to them so they end up looking nice on the annual report. No one can question them on why they did that.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

@Spectator, do we have a link to the Pending Inventory for PERM? That could give us a clue about the future demand.