Unofficial PERM Certifications to End Of Q2 FY2016

[Spectator]

By Country of Birth

-------------------- Q1 ------- Q2
Country/Group ------ No. ------ No. --- Total No. --- Total %
CHINA ------------ 2,108 ---- 2,974 ------- 5,082 ----- 9.05%
INDIA ----------- 13,255 --- 17,787 ------ 31,042 ---- 55.27%
MEXICO ------------- 457 ------ 647 ------- 1,104 ----- 1.97%
PHILIPPINES -------- 460 ------ 586 ------- 1,046 ----- 1.86%
ROW -------------- 7,733 --- 10,142 ------ 17,875 ---- 31.83%
UNKNOWN ------------------------ 12 ---------- 12 ----- 0.02%

Grand Total ------24,013 --- 32,148 ------ 56,161 --- 100.00%

Cert By FY of Decision.jpg

Cert By CY of PD.jpg

[anuprab]

By Country of Birth

-------------------- Q1 ------- Q2
Country/Group ------ No. ------ No. --- Total No. --- Total %
CHINA ------------ 2,108 ---- 2,974 ------- 5,082 ----- 9.05%
INDIA ----------- 13,255 --- 17,787 ------ 31,042 ---- 55.27%
MEXICO ------------- 457 ------ 647 ------- 1,104 ----- 1.97%
PHILIPPINES -------- 460 ------ 586 ------- 1,046 ----- 1.86%
ROW -------------- 7,733 --- 10,142 ------ 17,875 ---- 31.83%
UNKNOWN ------------------------ 12 ---------- 12 ----- 0.02%

Grand Total ------24,013 --- 32,148 ------ 56,161 --- 100.00%

Spec,

how much higher is this than last yr this time and also especially for Row? Thanks for all the number crunching as always

[Spectator]

Spec,

how much higher is this than last yr this time and also especially for Row? Thanks for all the number crunching as always

Here's a revised table with that information.

-------------------- Q1 ------- Q2
Country/Group ------ No. ------ No. --- Total No. --- Total % --- Q1/Q2 FY2015 --- % Change
CHINA ------------ 2,108 ---- 2,974 ------- 5,082 ----- 9.05% ------- 3,068 -------- 65.6%
INDIA ----------- 13,255 --- 17,787 ------ 31,042 ---- 55.27% ------ 21,718 -------- 42.9%
MEXICO ------------- 457 ------ 647 ------- 1,104 ----- 1.97% --------- 678 -------- 62.8%
PHILIPPINES -------- 460 ------ 586 ------- 1,046 ----- 1.86% --------- 648 -------- 61.4%
ROW -------------- 7,733 --- 10,142 ------ 17,875 ---- 31.83% ------ 10,233 -------- 74.7%
UNKNOWN ------------------------ 12 ---------- 12 ----- 0.02%

Grand Total ------24,013 --- 32,148 ------ 56,161 --- 100.00% ------ 36,345 -------- 54.5%

[anuprab]

Here's a revised table with that information.

-------------------- Q1 ------- Q2
Country/Group ------ No. ------ No. --- Total No. --- Total % --- Q1/Q2 FY2015 --- % Change
CHINA ------------ 2,108 ---- 2,974 ------- 5,082 ----- 9.05% ------- 3,068 -------- 65.6%
INDIA ----------- 13,255 --- 17,787 ------ 31,042 ---- 55.27% ------ 21,718 -------- 42.9%
MEXICO ------------- 457 ------ 647 ------- 1,104 ----- 1.97% --------- 678 -------- 62.8%
PHILIPPINES -------- 460 ------ 586 ------- 1,046 ----- 1.86% --------- 648 -------- 61.4%
ROW -------------- 7,733 --- 10,142 ------ 17,875 ---- 31.83% ------ 10,233 -------- 74.7%
UNKNOWN ------------------------ 12 ---------- 12 ----- 0.02%

Grand Total ------24,013 --- 32,148 ------ 56,161 --- 100.00% ------ 36,345 -------- 54.5%

thanks, doesn't bode well for SO for EBI then.

[Jagan01]

Here's a revised table with that information.

-------------------- Q1 ------- Q2
Country/Group ------ No. ------ No. --- Total No. --- Total % --- Q1/Q2 FY2015 --- % Change
CHINA ------------ 2,108 ---- 2,974 ------- 5,082 ----- 9.05% ------- 3,068 -------- 65.6%
INDIA ----------- 13,255 --- 17,787 ------ 31,042 ---- 55.27% ------ 21,718 -------- 42.9%
MEXICO ------------- 457 ------ 647 ------- 1,104 ----- 1.97% --------- 678 -------- 62.8%
PHILIPPINES -------- 460 ------ 586 ------- 1,046 ----- 1.86% --------- 648 -------- 61.4%
ROW -------------- 7,733 --- 10,142 ------ 17,875 ---- 31.83% ------ 10,233 -------- 74.7%
UNKNOWN ------------------------ 12 ---------- 12 ----- 0.02%

Grand Total ------24,013 --- 32,148 ------ 56,161 --- 100.00% ------ 36,345 -------- 54.5%

Spec,
As always, great work by you !!

[Delhi Guy]

Hello YT Eleven/Q,

Based on Specs Perm Analysis what do you guys think ? Will it clear December' EB3 2005 this year ?
We had much hope on your earlier analysis, but it seems it's fading. It has been very hard on us after 15 years in US.
BTW thank you for all the hard work you guys have put in.

[vishnu]

Spec: your initial prediction was for eb2 I dates to get close to the filing dates of jul 09.
Q2 perm certifications are unlikely to affect fy16 spillover right...by much at least. Are your initial predictions still holding? Or you would revise it down?

[qesehmk]

Delhi Guy

Welcome to forum. I do not do manual calculations anymore. So sorry I can't help you.

WhereismyGC offers a Free Forecast range. Check if that helps.

Hello YT Eleven/Q,

Based on Specs Perm Analysis what do you guys think ? Will it clear December' EB3 2005 this year ?
We had much hope on your earlier analysis, but it seems it's fading. It has been very hard on us after 15 years in US.
BTW thank you for all the hard work you guys have put in.

[Spectator]

Spec: your initial prediction was for eb2 I dates to get close to the filing dates of jul 09.
Q2 perm certifications are unlikely to affect fy16 spillover right...by much at least. Are your initial predictions still holding? Or you would revise it down?

vishnu,

Difficult to answer.

You are correct that Q2 FY2016 figures are highly unlikely to affect I-485 approvals in FY2016.

There have been increased PERM certifications from Q4 FY2015 onwards. How much they impact FY2016 I-485 approvals would be dependent on many unknown factors, including USCIS processing speed/processing priorities, possibly the numbers that chose PP for the I-140 etc.

This thread is purely informational. In the other thread, I have highlighted the potential for increased ROW approvals in the future due to previously higher PERM certifications. The timing of that increase is much less certain.

Based purely on EB2-ROW Trackitt approvals, the first half of FY2016 averaged about 55 approvals per month. The second half of the FY would need to average about 65 approvals per month to reach the same number of Trackitt approvals as FY2015. Realistically, that probably means slightly more than that for the next few months as approvals tend to drop off towards the end of the FY. If the previous surge in PERM certifications does come through during the remainder of FY2016, that level is possible.

Finally, remember that whatever the numbers might say, CO always adds a bit to the FAD as a contingency.

To directly answer your question - I'm slightly less positive (but that's me!) than I was initially. Depending on what he is seeing in the real world, CO may have to be careful not to repeat what happened last FY in EB2, or worse, repeat what happened in FY2012.

I think CO has more leeway in EB3. I think he is being too cautious with EB3-I movement. Personally, if CO has enough visas within the quarterly limits, I would move EB3-I to 22MAR05 or 01APR2005 to gauge exactly how many approvals that really generated. March 2005 saw the replacement of RIR with PERM, which accounts for the large number of cases in that month. The large numbers are actually in the last week of March, so a FAD of 22MAR05 would work if CO wants to be more cautious.

[GCwaiting]

I think CO has more leeway in EB3. I think he is being too cautious with EB3-I movement. Personally, if CO has enough visas within the quarterly limits, I would move EB3-I to 22MAR05 or 01APR2005 to gauge exactly how many approvals that really generated. March 2005 saw the replacement of RIR with PERM, which accounts for the large number of cases in that month. The large numbers are actually in the last week of March, so a FAD of 22MAR05 would work if CO wants to be more cautious.

Hi Spec,
When in your opinion, will EB3-I move say to Mar/Apr 2005? Could it happen in May / June VB?

[EB3Iwaiting]

.

I think CO has more leeway in EB3. I think he is being too cautious with EB3-I movement. Personally, if CO has enough visas within the quarterly limits, I would move EB3-I to 22MAR05 or 01APR2005 to gauge exactly how many approvals that really generated. March 2005 saw the replacement of RIR with PERM, which accounts for the large number of cases in that month. The large numbers are actually in the last week of March, so a FAD of 22MAR05 would work if CO wants to be more cautious.

Thanks again for the excellent analysis Spec. I did not fully understand your last paragraph. You are saying that CO can move EB3I dates to 22nd March 05 without applying any SO?

[qesehmk]

I think CO has more leeway in EB3. I think he is being too cautious with EB3-I movement.

IMHO that's quite an understatement.

[Spectator]

Thanks again for the excellent analysis Spec. I did not fully understand your last paragraph. You are saying that CO can move EB3I dates to 22nd March 05 without applying any SO?

EB3Iwaiting,

Thanks for asking the question, since I realized I hadn't addressed that point and was going to edit my post appropriately.

It would require lot of FA numbers within EB3 to be allocated early.

On the other hand, I don't think anyone really believes there won't be FA to EB3-I in FY2016. It would be a calculated risk if EB3-ROW approvals suddenly started to rise, but it would give CO valuable information about EB3-I numbers remaining. If he miscalculates slightly, then EB2 might have to suffer the same fate as EB3 did last year, or other EB3 approvals might have to be scaled back slightly.

I think he does owe EB3 (and EB3-I in particular) a fair shot at reaching their maximum approvals for the FY.

Will it happen? I doubt it (in fact I think it is vanishingly unlikely). There may not be enough spare visas within the quarterly maximum allowed and CO seems to be very cautious by nature. I can't blame him particularly for that trait. I can only hope he starts moving the EB3-I date more aggressively from July, when Q4 starts and he has less restraints.

[EB3Iwaiting]

It would be a calculated risk if EB3-ROW approvals suddenly started to rise, but it would give CO valuable information about EB3-I numbers remaining. If he miscalculates slightly, then EB2 might have to suffer the same fate as EB3 did last year, or other EB3 approvals might have to be scaled back slightly.

I think he does owe EB3 (and EB3-I in particular) a fair shot at reaching their maximum approvals for the FY.

Couldn't agree more on this Spec. After what happened last year, EB3I does deserve a break. He is being too cautious. Hopefully this does not lead to any wastage within the EB3 category. Again, EB3I will be in the losing end.