We were talking about overall PERM demand earlier, so I looked it up.
Based on receipt numbers, it is increasing steadily over the years, with the odd blip. I can only base this an annual FY PERM receipts reported by OFLC. There is no breakdown by Country for this data.
FY2009 - 60,977
FY2010 - 43,984
FY2011 - 67,383
FY2012 - 69,738
FY2013 - 72,462
FY2014 - 74,936
FY2015 - 87,644
I don't know why the number for FY2010 was so low, or what caused the sharp rise in FY2015.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
2010 can be effects of recession.Originally Posted by Spectator
Through the graphs, Spec has outlines the possibility of increased approvals from EBROW in the near future. The correlation between PERMs filed a year before and the number of EBROW approvals is striking.
So we need to understand that EBROW is not going to yield much SO in FY16 and FY17.
Jagan,
That's a pretty good summary.
I'd also add that, because the lag was 12 months last time, it doesn't necessarily follow that it will be 12 months in the future.
The lag will be affected by other factors. A previous spike at the end of 2012 had a 5 month lag.
If the increased March 2016 EB2-ROW approvals seen on Trackitt signal the beginning of a rise, then the lag this time would be about 8 months.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
@Spec, do we have FY2016 Receipt numbers for the 3 quarters yet? Where can we find that data?
DOL haven't published them yet.
When they do, you will find them here under the Selected Statistics By Program tab.
The number of PERM receipts at the end of Q2 FY2016 was 46,519.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
We could project that number through Q4 and come up with a 93K PERM demand for FY2016, which is more than any of 7 yrs numbers that you have posted. So, it looks like robust demand (which includes ROW) will reduce the possibility of SO to backlogged countries.
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...tober_2016.pdf
Based on the new inventory numbers, looks like EB3I is up for another good year this year. Hopefully all 2005 cases will be greened! And anything that is good for EB3I is also good for EB2I. The two categories are essentially tied to each other due to the porting phenomenon.
Looks like the PERM analysis (EB3 row: Eb2 row) ratio is not matching the pending inventory trends for EB row pending 485 inventory data. 2016 october inventory shows 22000 eb2 row cases pending vs 9000 eb3 row pending. Looks like the percentage of EB2 ROW is more than EB3 ROW. If the trend continues EB 3 I might receive some SO in 2017.
Yeah, EB2 is screwed this year also!!
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