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Thread: FY2015 Q3 Data is Available

  1. #1
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    FY2015 Q3 Data is Available

    Selected Statistics

    Full Disclosure Data

    I'll update the PERM Data when I have time.

    Edit:- The data has now been updated.


    Country of Birth ----- Q1 ------------------ Q2 ------------------ Q3 ----------------- Total ----
    CHINA ---------- 1,431 --- 8.85% ----- 1,637 --- 8.11% ----- 1,507 --- 8.49% ----- 4,575 --- 8.46%
    INDIA ---------- 9,191 -- 56.83% ---- 12,534 -- 62.11% ---- 10,537 -- 59.37% ---- 32,262 -- 59.63%
    MEXICO ----------- 295 --- 1.82% ------- 383 --- 1.90% ------- 360 --- 2.03% ----- 1,038 --- 1.92%
    PHILIPPINES ------ 316 --- 1.95% ------- 322 --- 1.65% ------- 271 --- 1.53% ------- 919 --- 1.70%
    ROW ------------ 4,940 -- 30.54% ----- 5,295 -- 26.24% ----- 5,074 -- 28.59% ---- 15,309 -- 28.30%

    Grand Total --- 16,173 - 100.00% ---- 20,181 - 100.00% ---- 17,749 - 100.00% ---- 54,103 - 100.00%
    Last edited by Spectator; 07-25-2015 at 04:28 PM.
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  2. #2
    Is there a way to find out number of 'certified' (excluding 'certified-withdrawn', denied, and withdrawn) for EB2 I for the period 2010-2012 ? (my PD is Dec 2012 EB2)
    Thanks

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by pramod View Post
    Is there a way to find out number of 'certified' (excluding 'certified-withdrawn', denied, and withdrawn) for EB2 I for the period 2010-2012 ? (my PD is Dec 2012 EB2)
    Thanks
    Try the statistics section on www.permchecker.com

    Here's what I found for India from Jan 2010 to Dec 2012. Hopefully its accurate. Of course, there's no way of saying what the EB2/3 split is and how many ported. Take an approximation to give yourself some numbers to play with.
    Last edited by jdoe99; 07-24-2015 at 02:50 PM.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by pramod View Post
    Is there a way to find out number of 'certified' (excluding 'certified-withdrawn', denied, and withdrawn) for EB2 I for the period 2010-2012 ? (my PD is Dec 2012 EB2)
    Thanks
    pramod,

    How would that information be useful.

    A case is automatically marked Certified-Expired once it is more than 180 days old (the time allowed to file an I-140 based on the PERM). For instance, in the latest PERM Disclosure Data file, all Q1 cases have been marked as Certified expired (all 16,173 of them for all Countries). There are no exceptions and no cases later than December 31, 2014 decision date are shown as Certified-Expired.

    The fact it is shown as Certified-Expired does not mean an I-140 was not filed for that case. Both Certified and Certified-Expired can be considered to be approved PERM applications.

    Here's the data anyway (by PD Year from A number) for India :

    CY2010
    Certified ---------- 10,037
    Certified Expired -- 12,296
    Total -------------- 22,333

    CY2011
    Certified ---------- 14,749
    Certified Expired -- 15,208
    Total -------------- 29,957

    CY2012
    Certified ---------- 21,529
    Certified Expired -- 15,129
    Total -------------- 36,658

    After the final disclosure data is released for a FY, it is not updated further, so generally Certified will represent Q3/4 (less than 180 days) and Certified-Expired will represent Q1/2 (more than 180 days).

    It's not possible to say what the breakdown is between EB2 and EB3. That is determined at the I-140 stage by USCIS.
    Last edited by Spectator; 07-24-2015 at 03:34 PM.
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  5. #5
    Thanks Spec, I was under the impression that 'certified-expired' means no I-140 has been filed in 180 days.
    Last edited by pramod; 07-24-2015 at 03:46 PM.

  6. #6
    Spec,

    FYI: The attachments in the Perm Data and Calculations thread are not working.
    Thanks.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by jdoe99 View Post
    Spec,

    FYI: The attachments in the Perm Data and Calculations thread are not working.
    Thanks.
    jdoe99,

    Thanks for letting me know.

    It should be fixed now.
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  8. #8
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    I did a "quick and dirty" analysis of the FY2015 Q3 Disclosure Data for Minimum Education Requirement vs Country of Birth. That can potentially derive the EB2/EB3 split at the I-140 stage.

    I consider it OK for a "ballpark" estimate only, nothing more, in the absence of proper disclosure from USCIS.

    Rounded to the nearest 5%:

    --------------- EB2 --- EB3
    China --------- 75% --- 25%
    India --------- 75% --- 25%
    Mexico -------- 40% --- 60%
    Philippines --- 45% --- 55%
    ROW ----------- 65% --- 35%

    Total --------- 70% --- 30%


    Bear in mind that some Countries/Groups have significant numbers of I-140 cases that do not require a PERM certification (e.g. NIW and Schedule A) which will alter the % split and overall numbers significantly at the I-485/CP stage.
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