EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Anish05]

Is it true?

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/09/10/break...

[jimmys]

Is it true?

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/09/10/break...

EB visas are expected to run out in Sep. It did last year as well.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Is it true?

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/09/10/break...

Yes, it seems to be true news. You won't see EB2I approvals for rest of September unless for those people for whom visa number has already been requested. When October starts, new FY will start with it and EB2I quota will open again so you can expect some lucky ones to get their green cards but then the PD will retrogress to 2005 till may be July, 2015 when it will move forward again depending on the spillover available next year.

I am not particularly concerned about the visas being unavailable till rest of the September because the FY is ending in 20 days anyways and it happened last year also. But I am more concerned about the future progress due to spillover concerns.The situation does not look very good overall especially with the announcement from Mr. CO that EB2I is likely to move forward extremely slowly in long term and applicants should prepare for longer waits. I think high use of EB1C and very high level of porting combined with high demand for EB2I itself is causing this and next year, EB2ROW demand will also pick up which can slow the progress even further.

Overall, it is not a good news and I think the new norm for EB2I is 6-8 years wait from PD with current level of visa allocation and quotas. In fact, if nothing changes then in next 3-4 years, EB3I will start receiving horizontal spillover as EB3ROW is advancing fast. If that happens, there won't be much difference left between EB2I and EB3I. Unless EB1C requirements are changed and made more stringent and EB3-EB2I porting is reduced, EB2I applicants are in for a long painful wait. The only caveat to this situation is if President issues an EO in December which includes some relief for legals or CIR passes in 2015 giving relief to legals. But I would not rely on them. The only other thing that can give EB2I more spillover is if somehow the PERM process slows down considerably and waiting times go up for every new filer to get LC approved.

My PD is in May, 2011 so I am only little more than 3 years from my filing but I am not hopeful at getting a GC before 2018. I can understand how painful it is for people who filed in 2008 and are still waiting.

As Q have said before, try to make a career move instead of waiting for GC eternally. I know that it is easier said than done but one should always try. I am really thinking of making a career move next year if there is no EO in December. I am getting tired of waiting and I don't want to sacrifice my career for green card. If needed, I will change my visa to J1 from H1B, abandon the GC process and take a J1 waiver job if I can advance in my career. Because till this point, I was letting the opportunities pass in wait for GC and I know that 4-5 years from now, I will regret it so I have decided that enough is enough and I will do something to advance my career instead of just waiting with frustration for my GC.

Not that, this may help anybody's cause and I don't want to sound preachy also, but just a friendly thought since I am also one of you.

Good luck to all waiting for GC.

[Fedup14]

I totally agree with you, same thing i'm also planning. My priority date is around May 2011. Only problem i see in switching is i have just 1 year left on my H1B. If i make switch, to get H1B extension beyond 6 years, i'm not sure how i can get PERM and 140 approval within a year, considering companies will not immediately start GC processing.

[jimmys]

//The only caveat to this situation is if President issues an EO in December which includes some relief for legals or CIR passes in 2015 giving relief to legals.//

It's very hard to believe President's EO will be of any help to legals. In my opinion the probability for that to happen is almost zip. There will be no CIR if GOP wins majority in both Senate and Congress which I believe is gonna happen in November.

[venkat]

I missed the GC boat by 10 days last year and after waiting 1 whole year again missed out...Any positives for me folks?

I hope to get over it soon. What was frustrating was to see lots of 2009 folks (nothing against them) getting their approval ahead of 2008 people who now end up waiting 1 more year.

Mr. Charles Oppenheim, the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State, just announced in a meeting in which our office participated that due to extraordinarily high volume of EB-2 India cases, the Department of State will make the EB-2 India category unavailable until the end of the fiscal year (September 30, 2014) effective immediately as of today, September 10, 2014. It is important to note that this announcement does not affect the October 2014 Visa Bulletin, which has EB-2 India with a cutoff date of May 1, 2009 and which will be effective as of October 1, 2014

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/...g-in-the-fall/

[krookbond]

I missed the GC boat by 10 days last year and after waiting 1 whole year again missed out...Any positives for me folks?

I hope to get over it soon. What was frustrating was to see lots of 2009 folks (nothing against them) getting their approval ahead of 2008 people who now end up waiting 1 more year.

Same boat here, PD June 2008. Missed boat last year and no RFE at all this year. On second thought, life doesn't change much without GC. I am on EAD for last 2 years and no regrets.

[raj888]

EB visas are expected to run out in Sep. It did last year as well.

Yes it did last year too around sept 15 - 20th. However come Oct, there were lot of approvals in eb2 india including a lot of new filers. I am hoping it will repeat. Though one difference is last year, there were unused visas from family category.


Gurus, Is there any way to calculate or guess if there could be any unused visas from family this year?

[rajamp]

Its first time i am hearing that we cannot file for 485 even thou the date is current in september. Can USCIS reject the application?

Source: http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html

09/11/2014: Unconfirmed Sources Indicates EB-2 India FY-2014 Cap Exhausted Yesterday 09/10/2014

An unconfirmed sources indicate that at a seminar yesterday, Mr. Oppenheim of the DOS Visa Bureau disclosed that the FY 2014 India EB-2 cap reached as of 09/10/2014 and unless the cap numbers have been taken out before today by the USCIS and visa posts, the pending EB-485 applications whose visa number had become current in September 2014 Visa Bulletin could not be adjudicated until after the end of September 2014. Additionally, those EB-2 Indians who have yet to file new EB-485 applications based on the September 2014 Visa Bulletin will not be able to file it until October 1, 2014 or thereafter. It is not clear whether the USCIS and visa offices will reject and return such EB-2 Indian applications which are received after 09/10/2014, but we will have to wait for clarification from the USCIS on this point.
Please stay tuned for confirmation of this information.

[CleanSock]

Hey Jonty! I am April 2011. We are close!

Yes, it seems to be true news. You won't see EB2I approvals for rest of September unless for those people for whom visa number has already been requested. When October starts, new FY will start with it and EB2I quota will open again so you can expect some lucky ones to get their green cards but then the PD will retrogress to 2005 till may be July, 2015 when it will move forward again depending on the spillover available next year.

I am not particularly concerned about the visas being unavailable till rest of the September because the FY is ending in 20 days anyways and it happened last year also. But I am more concerned about the future progress due to spillover concerns.The situation does not look very good overall especially with the announcement from Mr. CO that EB2I is likely to move forward extremely slowly in long term and applicants should prepare for longer waits. I think high use of EB1C and very high level of porting combined with high demand for EB2I itself is causing this and next year, EB2ROW demand will also pick up which can slow the progress even further.

Overall, it is not a good news and I think the new norm for EB2I is 6-8 years wait from PD with current level of visa allocation and quotas. In fact, if nothing changes then in next 3-4 years, EB3I will start receiving horizontal spillover as EB3ROW is advancing fast. If that happens, there won't be much difference left between EB2I and EB3I. Unless EB1C requirements are changed and made more stringent and EB3-EB2I porting is reduced, EB2I applicants are in for a long painful wait. The only caveat to this situation is if President issues an EO in December which includes some relief for legals or CIR passes in 2015 giving relief to legals. But I would not rely on them. The only other thing that can give EB2I more spillover is if somehow the PERM process slows down considerably and waiting times go up for every new filer to get LC approved.

My PD is in May, 2011 so I am only little more than 3 years from my filing but I am not hopeful at getting a GC before 2018. I can understand how painful it is for people who filed in 2008 and are still waiting.

As Q have said before, try to make a career move instead of waiting for GC eternally. I know that it is easier said than done but one should always try. I am really thinking of making a career move next year if there is no EO in December. I am getting tired of waiting and I don't want to sacrifice my career for green card. If needed, I will change my visa to J1 from H1B, abandon the GC process and take a J1 waiver job if I can advance in my career. Because till this point, I was letting the opportunities pass in wait for GC and I know that 4-5 years from now, I will regret it so I have decided that enough is enough and I will do something to advance my career instead of just waiting with frustration for my GC.

Not that, this may help anybody's cause and I don't want to sound preachy also, but just a friendly thought since I am also one of you.

Good luck to all waiting for GC.

[vizcard]

I am a little confused with the following paragraph:

No EB-2 India Filings for the Remainder of September
The fact that EB-2 India is unavailable for September also means that no new EB-2 India I-485 filings will be accepted during the rest of the month. This includes I-485 filings for dependents and I-485 interfiling requests (usually after I-140 porting applications). Cases that are filed are either likely to be held for processing on October 1st or will be returned to the applicant.

I thought that candidates can apply until they are current for the VB.

What happens to people who have not yet received EAD. Do we still get the EAD. I am done with finger printing but no sign of EAD yet.

Yes. They can apply. It just indicates that they won't be processed until October. That may mean (but not definitely) one has to re-file if the application is returned.

You will get the EAD. Only the initial application is tied to the 485. After that they follow different paths. Also, the fingerprinting is for the 485 and not EAD.

Bottom line is those you have applied have to wait atleast till Oct to be processed and those who haven't filed (but are current) need to wait till oct to file.

[Seeking_GC_Since_Jun_2008]

Oh man....same here June PD 2008 missed it last year by 15 days!

I year wait again!!! I thought "Acche Din Aa Gaye Hain"!

I missed the GC boat by 10 days last year and after waiting 1 whole year again missed out...Any positives for me folks?

I hope to get over it soon. What was frustrating was to see lots of 2009 folks (nothing against them) getting their approval ahead of 2008 people who now end up waiting 1 more year.

[qesehmk]

Its first time i am hearing that we cannot file for 485 even thou the date is current in september. Can USCIS reject the application?

Source: http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html

09/11/2014: Unconfirmed Sources Indicates EB-2 India FY-2014 Cap Exhausted Yesterday 09/10/2014

An unconfirmed sources indicate that at a seminar yesterday, Mr. Oppenheim of the DOS Visa Bureau disclosed that the FY 2014 India EB-2 cap reached as of 09/10/2014 and unless the cap numbers have been taken out before today by the USCIS and visa posts, the pending EB-485 applications whose visa number had become current in September 2014 Visa Bulletin could not be adjudicated until after the end of September 2014. Additionally, those EB-2 Indians who have yet to file new EB-485 applications based on the September 2014 Visa Bulletin will not be able to file it until October 1, 2014 or thereafter. It is not clear whether the USCIS and visa offices will reject and return such EB-2 Indian applications which are received after 09/10/2014, but we will have to wait for clarification from the USCIS on this point.
Please stay tuned for confirmation of this information.

If date is current you can file 485. Whoever says otherwise is spreading misinformation. Do not pay attention to that and let others know this too.

[qesehmk]

Sport - I am just answering your private question on "why this move by DOS" - here in the forum publicly. These are my thoughts - so treat them as such.

I think CO is trying to do his job as best as he could. Look, his hands are tied in terms of how many visas he can allocate. So if the numbers are gone .... they are gone.

Once they are gone, he needs to set the expectations of people who are not yet approved and tell them that the party is over as far as 2014 numbers are exhausted. I applaud him for doing that. Personally speaking I would rather hear the bad news now than later.

What has happened here is that EB5 has probably given ZERO spillover. EB1 - I do not believe provided much either. So EB2I was saved by EB2ROW. But those numbers from EB2ROW can't be more than 10K. Thus EB2I had enough numbers to advance upto May 2009 but not enough to approve all of them.

My guess as of now is that at least 30% of people between Jan-May 2009 EB2I were not approved.

I think EB2I's 5 year rule doesn't look very good going forward. Sorry for the bleak assessment. Will update header by tomorrow.

[qesehmk]

What are we to expect in October 2014? Do you think they will be willing to approve the leftover people from the regular quota + phantom spillover applied early (the way they did in Oct 2013) or will they simply close the door in the first week of October?

The VB came out on the 9th and this news came out on the 10th. Clearly, they couldn't have known anything earth shattering in a matter of 24 hours. Why did they leave the VB at May 1, 2009? Does this show a willingness to approve us remaining folks?

The bolded piece seems quite logical to me. What I am not sure of is - can CO really give out the full year EB2I quota in October itself? I know there are laws that require him to use visas 27% each quarter for first 3 quarters. I am not sure though whether that is a lower limit or upper limit. Looks like it could be the lower limit.

[imdeng]

IIRC 27% is the upper limit - in that USCIS can not issue more than 27% of the annual number in any of the first three quarters.

The bolded piece seems quite logical to me. What I am not sure of is - can CO really give out the full year EB2I quota in October itself? I know there are laws that require him to use visas 27% each quarter for first 3 quarters. I am not sure though whether that is a lower limit or upper limit. Looks like it could be the lower limit.

[gc2008]

As per trackitt, there were about 280 plus approvals during OCT/NOV last year. This may translate to few thousands. Any guess from where these numbers came from?

[qesehmk]

IIRC 27% is the upper limit - in that USCIS can not issue more than 27% of the annual number in any of the first three quarters.

Kanmani you there? Spec? Any opinion on this?

[qesehmk]

Q, how is the bolded part logical? The USCIS can approve thousands of cases in a matter of a week. Why would he not retrogress the date in the October bulletin itself to let the demand drive the date forward? Why not do what he does to EB3I until July? Surely, there is no way the demand can be 0 because the USCIS has been approving 200-400 cases each day for the last few days.

Someone mentioned an interesting theory of why the DOS made the bulletin effectively "U". They might want to discourage new applicants from sending their applications in September and endanger them from doing medicals again next year. It is possible that the "U" applies only for new applications and those in the pipelines might be accounted for in whatever remaining spillover for September. As of Sept 11, approvals are still coming in. We have to wait and watch.

It just did not make sense why he would simply make the bulletin U. It's not as if any applications they receive now are going to be adjudicated any time soon. Why stop them in the first place? They did not do this in April 2012 if everyone remembers. The only thing I can derive is that they perhaps want to stop people from burning their medical RFE clock early or free more adjudicators to work on pending cases.

I still feel a little hopeful. Please chime in.

He hasn't made the dates U. In fact he explicitely said they will still be at May 1 2009 in October. However now it is for certain that the dates will be retro in November itself.

What was logical in the bolded part was the last sentence. That in 24 hours there was nothing new he could knew ... so it means yet he kept the date till May 1 2009 in order clear those cases in October.

[raj888]

As per trackitt, there were about 280 plus approvals during OCT/NOV last year. This may translate to few thousands. Any guess from where these numbers came from?

Atually, its much more than 280. Per the Spectators posts in Data and Facts, there were 601 (362+239) EB2 I Trackitt approvals in oct and nov last year. Clearly, thats much more than EB2I annual quota if you multiply the #s by trackitt to actual multiplier.

[pdfeb09]

Q, how is the bolded part logical? The USCIS can approve thousands of cases in a matter of a week. Why would he not retrogress the date in the October bulletin itself to let the demand drive the date forward? Why not do what he does to EB3I until July? Surely, there is no way the demand can be 0 because the USCIS has been approving 200-400 cases each day for the last few days.

Someone mentioned an interesting theory of why the DOS made the bulletin effectively "U". They might want to discourage new applicants from sending their applications in September and endanger them from doing medicals again next year. It is possible that the "U" applies only for new applications and those in the pipelines might be accounted for in whatever remaining spillover for September. As of Sept 11, approvals are still coming in. We have to wait and watch.

It just did not make sense why he would simply make the bulletin U. It's not as if any applications they receive now are going to be adjudicated any time soon. Why stop them in the first place? They did not do this in April 2012 if everyone remembers. The only thing I can derive is that they perhaps want to stop people from burning their medical RFE clock early or free more adjudicators to work on pending cases.

I still feel a little hopeful. Please chime in.

Sports .. I don't think the internal retrogression of dates will deter any new filers (or just RFE responders) from sending their application in. The advantages of getting an EAD/AP far outweigh the expense to redo the medicals.

The people who are waiting to be issued a GC will not hold off on their RFE response either, since they will probably hope to get their GC in Oct.

My thinking is that the dates are intentionally left unchanged to be able to utilize as many new-FY-visas as possible in Oct.

Imdeng,

The 27% limit ... is that on the overall number of visas (regardless of the country quota) or does it specifically bar any country from getting more than 27% of its share in each of the first 3 quarters?

In other words, is it possible, under the law, for EB2I to utilize its own full year quota(7% of total) while delaying some of the ROW for a quarter and then holding off EB2I until the last quarter while working on the ROW ?

[bvsamrat]

This is my opinion


As usual for CO, EB2-I is always a paradox issue to solve

Hence he decided to see the demand data as on end August 2014 and then maintained the Priority date to May 1 2009.

This will have 2 fold effect

a) Most of the assigned visa numbers will still stay attached to the applicants (pending new checks, RFE reviews, ADIT checks etc.)- Hence I presume that pending RFE review cases will be adjudicated and all keep receicing GCs till October end. Only that new numbers are not allocated (for eg. not cases without RFE received or pending checks with longer estimated durations etc.)

b) It would also a great favor to the new applicants or porters with PD up to May 1 2009 where they can apply and get EAD and be inline. Infact EAD might be defacto GC in future for EB2-I(with alleast 2-3 gap). Next year in JUly 2015, these applicants would be ready line as part of demand.

[helooo]

This is my opinion


As usual for CO, EB2-I is always a paradox issue to solve

Hence he decided to see the demand data as on end August 2014 and then maintained the Priority date to May 1 2009.

This will have 2 fold effect

a) Most of the assigned visa numbers will still stay attached to the applicants (pending new checks, RFE reviews, ADIT checks etc.)- Hence I presume that pending RFE review cases will be adjudicated and all keep receicing GCs till October end. Only that new numbers are not allocated (for eg. not cases without RFE received or pending checks with longer estimated durations etc.)

b) It would also a great favor to the new applicants or porters with PD up to May 1 2009 where they can apply and get EAD and be inline. Infact EAD might be defacto GC in future for EB2-I(with alleast 2-3 gap). Next year in JUly 2015, these applicants would be ready line as part of demand.

Will they issue EAD's faster to new applicants now?

[anuprab]

I have been reading the forums here quietly but thought it would be worthwhile to ask the experts on the forum here. I am stuck with 2006 eb3 so my case is out of question. My husband's is May3 2010 EB2. Is there any hope for the date to reach post May 2010 next summer so that he can be the primary applicant. I am stuck in a job with no chance for porting since its finance industry unless I look for another job and that too there is thin chance that an investment firm will do my greencard again. I am just waiting for dates to reach post May 2010 and not looking to get a greencard. Is there any hope for that next year...

[qesehmk]

I have been reading the forums here quietly but thought it would be worthwhile to ask the experts on the forum here. I am stuck with 2006 eb3 so my case is out of question. My husband's is May3 2010 EB2. Is there any hope for the date to reach post May 2010 next summer so that he can be the primary applicant. I am stuck in a job with no chance for porting since its finance industry unless I look for another job and that too there is thin chance that an investment firm will do my greencard again. I am just waiting for dates to reach post May 2010 and not looking to get a greencard. Is there any hope for that next year...

It will be worthwhile to ask a lawyer if you can capture your EB3 date and file 485 under EB2.

As per whether dates will move to 2010 within one year, I can't answer that right now in any intelligent manner because we don't have data.