EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Spectator]

For those interested in the figures.

Q1-Q3 FY2014 figures are from the official OFLC Disclosure Data. July and August figures are from the DOL LCR.

a) PERM Certifications by FY of Decision by DOL.
Attachment 675

b) Perm Certifications by CY of Priority Date (as derived from A-number).
Attachment 676

[vizcard]

Thank you vizcard. Please don't be sorry. Mr. Presidendent's EO is the only hope then.
Any idea iff EO is released in favor of ill fate lawful immigrants who are stuck in the limbo is it going to be affective as of the date of order? Did some googling but did not get a complete idea how it works.

No idea. But I would imagine the intent of an EO is to make it happen immediately.

[vizcard]

First thing, we haven't got the EAD yet.

Also as we file h1 transfer, do we need to inform uscis about it?

To do a h1 transfer, the new employer will have to file paperwork. It is not like an EAD where u get more freedom.

[Spectator]

USCIS have updated the Dashboard with the figures for June 2014.

[qbloguser]

I saw March 2009 cases approved from NSC - They were current in Sept. What does this mean? NSC is done with 2008 cases or what? Will TSC follow?

Updates from trackitt:

#Eb2I approvals from July 2014-now: 735
#EB2I approvals YTD: 1452

NSC has started approving Sept cases. TSC is catching up fast and exhausting backlog. The trend is looking good so far. No approvals yet for July 2014 filers but I expect some to get those in Oct 2014. At this rate, retrogression is a certainty in November. Good luck to everyone who is waiting to be greened.

[imdeng]

Its a good thing. As much of 2008 and early 2009 we can finish, easier it will be for the next spillover season considering all the headwinds anticipated. Retrogression in Nov is a near certainty irrespective of the current approval pace.

Updates from trackitt:

#Eb2I approvals from July 2014-now: 735
#EB2I approvals YTD: 1452

NSC has started approving Sept cases. TSC is catching up fast and exhausting backlog. The trend is looking good so far. No approvals yet for July 2014 filers but I expect some to get those in Oct 2014. At this rate, retrogression is a certainty in November. Good luck to everyone who is waiting to be greened.

[imdeng]

It only means that the window of approvals is moving forward and has reached Sept current folks. It does not mean that NSC is done with 2008. I am sure NSC will also start approving scattering of Feb-Mar-Apr 2009 folks as well.

I saw March 2009 cases approved from NSC - They were current in Sept. What does this mean? NSC is done with 2008 cases or what? Will TSC follow?

[imdeng]

It seems like we will not be carrying too much of an inventory overhang into the next FY. Depends on when they do an internal retrogression and throttle the approval pace - but I can see entering 2015 with just a couple thousand inventory overhang for EB2I (meaning folks who were current but did not get approved hence they are carried over to the next FY). A good number of these should then be cleared in Oct - giving us a clean slate for FY2015.

[imdeng]

It seems like we will not be carrying too much of an inventory overhang into the next FY. Depends on when they do an internal retrogression and throttle the approval pace - but I can see entering 2015 with just a couple thousand inventory overhang for EB2I (meaning folks who were current but did not get approved hence they are carried over to the next FY). A good number of these should then be cleared in Oct - giving us a clean slate for FY2015.

[gten20]

It seems like we will not be carrying too much of an inventory overhang into the next FY. Depends on when they do an internal retrogression and throttle the approval pace - but I can see entering 2015 with just a couple thousand inventory overhang for EB2I (meaning folks who were current but did not get approved hence they are carried over to the next FY). A good number of these should then be cleared in Oct - giving us a clean slate for FY2015.

A clean slate for 2015? Are you anticipating inventory build up?

[gten20]

It seems like we will not be carrying too much of an inventory overhang into the next FY. Depends on when they do an internal retrogression and throttle the approval pace - but I can see entering 2015 with just a couple thousand inventory overhang for EB2I (meaning folks who were current but did not get approved hence they are carried over to the next FY). A good number of these should then be cleared in Oct - giving us a clean slate for FY2015.

A clean slate for 2015? Are you anticipating inventory build up?

[bluelabel]

Per July 21st 2014 485 inventory, there are 17890 EB2I applications up to PD May1st 2009(of which 1086 are prior to 1st Jan 2007). As per the tracking spread sheet, so far 900 have been approved from July1st. If we deduct the approvals till July21st, net approvals will be 900-165 = 735.

If trackitt conversion ratio is 13, so far 735*13 = 9555 green cards been issued. I doubt USCIS will approve (or have that much spill over left) additional 8335 (17890-9555) GCs in next 27 days to clear out the backlog.

If at least additional 5000 is cleared in September, around 3000 will be carried to FY2015.

Total 485 inventory starting Oct 2014 would be 3000+13344(from may2009 till May2010)+New applications from July to September 2014+2014 porting.

There are fair chances that dates would progress starting October 2015 and clear out the backlog if we get atleast 15000(spill over plus regular quota) in FY2015.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1073280392

[bluelabel]

Per July 21st 2014 485 inventory, there are 17890 EB2I applications up to PD May1st 2009(of which 1086 are prior to 1st Jan 2007). As per the tracking spread sheet, so far 900 have been approved from July1st. If we deduct the approvals till July21st, net approvals will be 900-165 = 735.

If trackitt conversion ratio is 13, so far 735*13 = 9555 green cards been issued. I doubt USCIS will approve (or have that much spill over left) additional 8335 (17890-9555) GCs in next 27 days to clear out the backlog.

If at least additional 5000 is cleared in September, around 3000 will be carried to FY2015.

Total 485 inventory starting Oct 2014 would be 3000+13344(from may2009 till May2010)+New applications from July to September 2014+2014 porting.

There are fair chances that dates would progress starting October 2015 and clear out the backlog if we get atleast 15000(spill over plus regular quota) in FY2015.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1073280392

[imdeng]

Nah - I meant clean slate up to 01MAY2009. We will have approx 15K inventory left after this FY. Add few thousand porters and some new filers. Conceivably, EB2I inventory can handle a good 18K visa supply for next FY - so as such there is no urgent need of new inventory in FY2015. Of course, considering various contingencies and to keep some buffer in hand, CO might still want to do so - but then who knows CO's mind.

A clean slate for 2015? Are you anticipating inventory build up?

[imdeng]

Nah - I meant clean slate up to 01MAY2009. We will have approx 15K inventory left after this FY. Add few thousand porters and some new filers. Conceivably, EB2I inventory can handle a good 18K visa supply for next FY - so as such there is no urgent need of new inventory in FY2015. Of course, considering various contingencies and to keep some buffer in hand, CO might still want to do so - but then who knows CO's mind.

A clean slate for 2015? Are you anticipating inventory build up?

[imdeng]

Inventory never really gets fully cleared. There always are cases that are abandoned or get extended review or even rejected. For example - 2004+2005+2006 has 1000 EB2I demand sitting in the inventory. We can expect another ~1000 such demand in 2007, 2008 and 2009.

Per July 21st 2014 485 inventory, there are 17890 EB2I applications up to PD May1st 2009(of which 1086 are prior to 1st Jan 2007). As per the tracking spread sheet, so far 900 have been approved from July1st. If we deduct the approvals till July21st, net approvals will be 900-165 = 735.

If trackitt conversion ratio is 13, so far 735*13 = 9555 green cards been issued. I doubt USCIS will approve (or have that much spill over left) additional 8335 (17890-9555) GCs in next 27 days to clear out the backlog.

If at least additional 5000 is cleared in September, around 3000 will be carried to FY2015.

Total 485 inventory starting Oct 2014 would be 3000+13344(from may2009 till May2010)+New applications from July to September 2014+2014 porting.

There are fair chances that dates would progress starting October 2015 and clear out the backlog if we get atleast 15000(spill over plus regular quota) in FY2015.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1073280392

[imdeng]

Inventory never really gets fully cleared. There always are cases that are abandoned or get extended review or even rejected. For example - 2004+2005+2006 has 1000 EB2I demand sitting in the inventory. We can expect another ~1000 such demand in 2007, 2008 and 2009.

Per July 21st 2014 485 inventory, there are 17890 EB2I applications up to PD May1st 2009(of which 1086 are prior to 1st Jan 2007). As per the tracking spread sheet, so far 900 have been approved from July1st. If we deduct the approvals till July21st, net approvals will be 900-165 = 735.

If trackitt conversion ratio is 13, so far 735*13 = 9555 green cards been issued. I doubt USCIS will approve (or have that much spill over left) additional 8335 (17890-9555) GCs in next 27 days to clear out the backlog.

If at least additional 5000 is cleared in September, around 3000 will be carried to FY2015.

Total 485 inventory starting Oct 2014 would be 3000+13344(from may2009 till May2010)+New applications from July to September 2014+2014 porting.

There are fair chances that dates would progress starting October 2015 and clear out the backlog if we get atleast 15000(spill over plus regular quota) in FY2015.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1073280392

[anasha1721]

is there a chance to get an approval this year? PD is December 2008. Got an RFE on june 5 and the RFERR date is Jul 25. Also used AC21 as I changed employer this year in march and am working on H1b visa. Not sure if these things delay the approval. The case is in Initial review status for me and my dependents. Really getting anxious about this with a prospect of waiting for one more year or more.

[anasha1721]

is there a chance to get an approval this year? PD is December 2008. Got an RFE on june 5 and the RFERR date is Jul 25. Also used AC21 as I changed employer this year in march and am working on H1b visa. Not sure if these things delay the approval. The case is in Initial review status for me and my dependents. Really getting anxious about this with a prospect of waiting for one more year or more.

[vizcard]

is there a chance to get an approval this year? PD is December 2008. Got an RFE on june 5 and the RFERR date is Jul 25. Also used AC21 as I changed employer this year in march and am working on H1b visa. Not sure if these things delay the approval. The case is in Initial review status for me and my dependents. Really getting anxious about this with a prospect of waiting for one more year or more.

Im fairly sure you will get approved but that is an awfully long time to respond to the RFE. Open a SR online and hope for the best.

[vizcard]

is there a chance to get an approval this year? PD is December 2008. Got an RFE on june 5 and the RFERR date is Jul 25. Also used AC21 as I changed employer this year in march and am working on H1b visa. Not sure if these things delay the approval. The case is in Initial review status for me and my dependents. Really getting anxious about this with a prospect of waiting for one more year or more.

Im fairly sure you will get approved but that is an awfully long time to respond to the RFE. Open a SR online and hope for the best.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

So, I hear a lot of people saying that dates are going to retrogress in November. Does this mean retrogression is effective Nov 1, 2014 or the Nov bulletin will announce that retrogression shall start on dec 1, 2014.

I'm a first-time end august, 2008 filer, if anybody is wondering why this question

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

So, I hear a lot of people saying that dates are going to retrogress in November. Does this mean retrogression is effective Nov 1, 2014 or the Nov bulletin will announce that retrogression shall start on dec 1, 2014.

I'm a first-time end august, 2008 filer, if anybody is wondering why this question

[qesehmk]

So, I hear a lot of people saying that dates are going to retrogress in November. Does this mean retrogression is effective Nov 1, 2014 or the Nov bulletin will announce that retrogression shall start on dec 1, 2014.

I'm a first-time end august, 2008 filer, if anybody is wondering why this question

It is more likely that dates will retro in Dec .. not November. The reason is .. Nov bulletin comes in first week of Oct. There is virtually no data available in first week of Oct for CO to make a decision. Thus he can only make a decision and publish as part of Dec bulletin.

Aug 2008 and if you are not approved ... you need to start making noise and explore why.

[qesehmk]

So, I hear a lot of people saying that dates are going to retrogress in November. Does this mean retrogression is effective Nov 1, 2014 or the Nov bulletin will announce that retrogression shall start on dec 1, 2014.

I'm a first-time end august, 2008 filer, if anybody is wondering why this question

It is more likely that dates will retro in Dec .. not November. The reason is .. Nov bulletin comes in first week of Oct. There is virtually no data available in first week of Oct for CO to make a decision. Thus he can only make a decision and publish as part of Dec bulletin.

Aug 2008 and if you are not approved ... you need to start making noise and explore why.