EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Kanmani]

bvsamrat,

In general, for the applicants from non-retrogressed countries, they process FIFO. During Spill-over season, it is expected that they approve in ascending order,the oldest PD first . Since the applications are spread over numerous adjudicators, it is impossible to do so.

To summarize, we really don't know.

[Fedup14]

Hi,

This could be stupid question ... but i'm not sure, where ever i read - most of the guys were stating -- eb4 / eb5 will be using all their visa's(spill over will be less). I'm really confused over here as when i checked inventory from oct 2013 to july 2014, overall usage seems less for these 2 categories..
e.g.
Eb4 -
Oct 2013 jan 2014 apr 2014 jul 2014
1062 1353 1187 1529

Eb5
18 654 59 180

if i add all these figures then also total visa allocation for these categories will be
eb4 = 5131
eb5 == 911

Considering both these categories are given around 10000 visa's each, why we shouldn't expect a good spill over from these categories?

[Spectator]

Hi,

This could be stupid question ... but i'm not sure, where ever i read - most of the guys were stating -- eb4 / eb5 will be using all their visa's(spill over will be less). I'm really confused over here as when i checked inventory from oct 2013 to july 2014, overall usage seems less for these 2 categories..
e.g.
Eb4 -
Oct 2013 jan 2014 apr 2014 jul 2014
1062 1353 1187 1529

Eb5
18 654 59 180

if i add all these figures then also total visa allocation for these categories will be
eb4 = 5131
eb5 == 911

Considering both these categories are given around 10000 visa's each, why we shouldn't expect a good spill over from these categories?

Fedup14,

Welcome to the forum.

No question is ever stupid.

Here's my thoughts.

The quality of the data in the USCIS Inventory is slightly questionable, but the main point to note is that it only covers those people who have chosen to adjust status in the USA by filing an I-485.

Notably missing from the USCIS data is the number of cases that undergo Consular Processing, which is signifiacant for some Categories and Countries.

From last FY figures, the % using AOS was:

EB4 - 80%
EB5 - 15%

Your figures would become :

EB4 - 5,131 / 80% * 100% = 6,414

In FY2013, EB4 used 6,446 visas.

EB5 - 911 / 85% * 100% = 6,073

In FY2013, EB5 used 8,564 visas.

Now looking at the trends for each Category, we could look at the underlying petition approvals for each Category.

For EB4, that would be the I-360 and for EB5 that would be the I-526.

EB4 (I-360)

From the USCIS Dashboard, the average monthly Receipts and Completions are:

Receipts

FY2012 - 1,599
FY2013 - 1,681
FY2014 - 1,661 (figures available to May 2014 only)

Completions

FY2012 - 1,222
FY2013 - 1,958
FY2014 - 2,030 (figures available to May 2014 only)

The data available suggests that EB4 approvals will be fairly level. That could give as much as 3.5k spillover to EB1. DOS doesn't release much info about EB4 approvals during the year.

EB5 (I-526)

Here, the increasing backlog of I-526 cases is probably the best indicator. Currently, the USCIS figures state that it takes 13.2 months to process an I-526, so the recent figures are at least a year away from showing up as approvals.

Backlog

May 2012 - 2,776
May 2013 - 6,228
May 2014 - 9,668

Given that the approval rate for an I-526 has generally been in the 80-85% range and that each I-526 approval leads to about 3 EB5 visas being used, it is fairly clear that EB5 will exceed their allocation of about 10k in the very near future.

Charles Oppenheim has already warned that he expects to have to retrogress EB5-China (who use 90% of EB5) as early as June 2015 and not later than August 2015 next year. See this article (July 16, 2014) and this article.

Hence, there should be no expectation of spare visas from EB5 going forward.

Finally, it's not yet clear yet whether EB1 will need to use some of any Fall Up from EB4/EB5. That would reduce the amount available to EB2.

Hope that helps and clarifies the situation and perhaps explains why people to not have great hopes for EB5 in particular.

[CleanSock]

No sure if someone else posted this before. If so, please ignore. Latest I485 inventory has been released

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y-July2014.pdf

[rka_72]

Spec/Q/gurus
Based on the latest inventory data and approvals so far, when do you think the TSC will start approving Aug current cases or Are they going to wait till Sep 1st?

[vik123]

Office of Foreign Labor Certifications Releases Update of Prevailing Wage Determination Factsheet for 3rd Quarter of 2014

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...Y2014_Q3TD.pdf

[qesehmk]

Spec/Q/gurus
Based on the latest inventory data and approvals so far, when do you think the TSC will start approving Aug current cases or Are they going to wait till Sep 1st?

rka - unfortunately I can't answer that question.

Generally speaking a service center may not be able to process some cases even though they are current. The reason is simple ... the service center also must prioritize and schedule all the current cases and that too by how far they are along in processing. Long story short ... even if TSC starts with Aug currrent cases in September - I wouldn't blame them. I do not know their load factor and what not.

[Spectator]

The All Forms and Adjustment of Status (Form I-485 Application) data for Q3 FY2014 has been released.

[docgana]

Folks,

Does anyone know if changing in address and filing AR-11 delays the processing of application? I have a June'08 priority date and has been waiting since July'14 for any update on the RFE response sent.

Regards,

[ramaka02]

No, but once AR11 is sent, call USCIS and confirm the change of address on file in their system. You should also receive a confirmation email on the change of address also.

Folks,

Does anyone know if changing in address and filing AR-11 delays the processing of application? I have a June'08 priority date and has been waiting since July'14 for any update on the RFE response sent.

Regards,

[kd2008]

Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim: August 12, 2014 (Updated 8/20/14) http://aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=49304
DOS Liaison Committee series of monthly “check-ins” with Charlie Oppenheim, designed to keep members informed of Visa Bulletin progress and to obtain his analysis of current trends and future projections, beyond the basic visa availability updates provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin.
AILA Doc. No. 14071401.

Folks of these forum should check whether they can get access to this document and if they get it then post at least the summary here.

Oh law firm says: 08/20/2014: Impact of Potential OBAMA EB Fix Excluding Dependent Family Members from EB ** Numberical Limit

AILA liaison reportedly asked Mr. Oppenheim of DOS the potential impact of such reform on immigration visa cut-off dates and his answer was that it would accelerate cut-offs but cut-offs would still exist in the family-based peference immigrant visa categories, while such fix would result in all of EB visa categories immediately becoming current and continuously remaining current for the foreseeable future. But within a year of two, filing and approval of new petitions could require cut-off dates for some preferences for some countries. Interesting....................................... ..........

Stupid as usual since Spec's fabulous analysis at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...8775#post48775 has clearly shown it is not possible.

[bvsamrat]

FIFO is out of the door when the applications are divided over several officers and low hanging fruits (as explained by SPEC some time back) are those without any complications (either by officers or by applicant's specific nature. This is the one of the main reasons as to why the priority date has been extended to 4 months ahead as they knew that some cases would take long time (the percentage is not known, but pundits might estimate based on trackitt).

The check in procedure once PD becomes current might have some time bound checks which would vary for each case and this will take FIFO out of equation in general. (when all steps/checks being identical then FIFO might look practical.

Sorry, I am not able to explain more than this, But this MHO

bvsamrat,

In general, for the applicants from non-retrogressed countries, they process FIFO. During Spill-over season, it is expected that they approve in ascending order,the oldest PD first . Since the applications are spread over numerous adjudicators, it is impossible to do so.

To summarize, we really don't know.

[maverick2Seattle]

Hi Guru,

One of my colleague told me about this forum and I that makes me new to this forum. My PD July 2008. I-485, I-131 and I-765 were filed on July 30, 2014. When do you guys think I will get EAD and GC?

Thank you very much in advance.

Mav.

[avkeb2]

Gurus,

I got email notifications on mine and my spouse cases that it has been transferred to local office for further processing.
Could somebody tell if this is something to worry or what does this mean to case processing.

Initial Review

On August 20, 2014, we transferred your I485, APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS, to your local USCIS Office for further processing. The new office has jurisdiction over your case and will send you a decision as soon as processing is complete or you will be notified if further information or action is needed


PD: OCT 2008
RD: 01/2012
AC21: 11/2013
RFE: 06/11/2014
USCIS received RFE reply : 07/14/2014
Congressman enquiry on 08/18/2014 and got reply as officer is reviewing your application and they would contact you soon. With in 2 days I got the above status alert on our cases.

Please advise. Thank you.

[avkeb2]

Gurus,

I got email notifications on mine and my spouse cases that it has been transferred to local office for further processing.
Could you somebody tell if this is something to worry or what does this mean to case processing.

Initial Review

On August 20, 2014, we transferred your I485, APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS, to your local USCIS Office for further processing. The new office has jurisdiction over your case and will send you a decision as soon as processing is complete or you will be notified if further information or action is needed

My PD: Oct 2008
RD: Jan 2012
AC21 filed: 11/2013
RFE : 06/11/2014
RFE Replied: 07/14/2014
RFE details: EVL, EAD copies, I-94, Medicals

Did Congressman enquiry on 08/18/2014 and got reply as officer is reviewing your application and they would contact you soon.

[avkeb2]

Thanks for the reply Sportsfan33. Appreciate for spending time.

I took info pass appt on 08/26, hopefully they can provide more insight as you said.

Meanwhile when I called USICS customer service, 1st level Cust. Serv. Rep told me nothing wrong with my case but it got transfered, when I asked if they see any issue with my case. She did not tell me where it got transferred though.

When I contacted my corporate attorney(fr@@@@en), their response is like, sometimes USCIS does these inorder to balance the work load.

I researched myself in trackitt and this forum, did not get much info. Looks like for some ppl they got interview, for some it was pending for long time. Not sure what is going on with my case.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

I'm a first-time filer (filed in 1st week of July with a PD of 24th July 2008). First week of august we did fingerprinting and got it stamped. Yesterday, we received one more fp appointment notice. I called up the NSC and the rep couldn't provide any detail on why the 2nd notice was issued.

Can anybody whose been through a similar situation advise on what next steps we can and specifically 'how do I get information on why the 2nd appointment notice was issued'? (If it was done by mistake and probably all it takes is to find that one right person who can fix it so that our application doesn't get into a bottleneck)

Also, is the retrogression expected for Nov 1 or Dec 1st?

[qesehmk]

Don't want to freak you out IIWTT. But it could be that they got a false positive with some undesirable person in their database. Or another - rather benign possibility - they lost it. I can't think of anything else. I am sure this is simple stuff. Just do what is being asked. Dont think too much.

I'm a first-time filer (filed in 1st week of July with a PD of 24th July 2008). First week of august we did fingerprinting and got it stamped. Yesterday, we received one more fp appointment notice. I called up the NSC and the rep couldn't provide any detail on why the 2nd notice was issued.

Can anybody whose been through a similar situation advise on what next steps we can and specifically 'how do I get information on why the 2nd appointment notice was issued'? (If it was done by mistake and probably all it takes is to find that one right person who can fix it so that our application doesn't get into a bottleneck)

Also, is the retrogression expected for Nov 1 or Dec 1st?

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Don't want to freak you out IIWTT. But it could be that they got a false positive with some undesirable person in their database. Or another - rather benign possibility - they lost it. I can't think of anything else. I am sure this is simple stuff. Just do what is being asked. Dont think too much.

Thanks for your response, Qesehmk.

I'm not freaked out but when you don't get any information in such a situation I get irritated. Actually, we got a fp for all in the family. So, we were thinking that they messed up the first appointment.

It presents a big hassle because we got travel into boston (which is a nightmare on a weekday)..and my wife has to take time off from work & we've to pull my daughter from school for the day. Thinking about all these increases my irritation

We are thinking of trying a walkin to another ASC in the boston area early next week before school starts to try our luck on getting an fp done.

[qesehmk]

I hear u ...
Hopefully this should go smooth.

Thanks for your response, Qesehmk.

I'm not freaked out but when you don't get any information in such a situation I get irritated. Actually, we got a fp for all in the family. So, we were thinking that they messed up the first appointment.

It presents a big hassle because we got travel into boston (which is a nightmare on a weekday)..and my wife has to take time off from work & we've to pull my daughter from school for the day. Thinking about all these increases my irritation

We are thinking of trying a walkin to another ASC in the boston area early next week before school starts to try our luck on getting an fp done.

[Dan2013]

Almost every one who filed in July are getting second FP notices its a glitch at their end, although it seems simple IT glitch the concerning part for me is that I hope July filers don’t lose their place in processing Queue as waiting for FP and August cases getting processed ahead of them.

[helooo]

I'm a first-time filer (filed in 1st week of July with a PD of 24th July 2008). First week of august we did fingerprinting and got it stamped. Yesterday, we received one more fp appointment notice. I called up the NSC and the rep couldn't provide any detail on why the 2nd notice was issued.

Can anybody whose been through a similar situation advise on what next steps we can and specifically 'how do I get information on why the 2nd appointment notice was issued'? (If it was done by mistake and probably all it takes is to find that one right person who can fix it so that our application doesn't get into a bottleneck)

Also, is the retrogression expected for Nov 1 or Dec 1st?

There is some problem in the system.I did FP in July and again got the FP notice for 9/2/14.I saw on Trackitt that of folks who filed in July got this second FP notices.I am going Monday for FP and will update.

[glennphil]

Hi, My PD 09/23/14 EB3 PHIL, is there a possibility that it may current on Oct visa bulletin? thanks

[imdeng]

Replied to you in the EB3 thread. Please continue the discussion there. Also - the year is mistyped in one of your messages.

Hi, My PD 09/23/14 EB3 PHIL, is there a possibility that it may current on Oct visa bulletin? thanks

[Spectator]

The Oh website is reporting

08/23/2014: Effective 08/23/2014, China EB-5 Visa Unavailable Until 09/30/2014

AILA has reported that China EB-5 numbers for FY 2014 has been reached and effective today, EB-5 visa number will be unavailable for the Chinese until the end of the FY 2014, 09/30/2014. Reportedly, those cases for which interviews have been scheduled and visa number could have been reserved are not affected by the current visa exhaustion notice. For details, please contact the visa posts.

On the AILA website there is indeed an alert:

8/23/2014 DOS Alert: China EB-5 “Unavailable” for Remainder of FY2014

Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the DOS Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division announced at the AILA EB-5 conference that effective Saturday, August 23, 2014, the maximum number of visas that may be made available for use by China EB-5 applicants during FY2014 has been reached.
AILA Doc. No. 14082360.

The actual document is restricted to AILA members, so I can't see any more than that.

Note that visas already allocated to consulates for September will be honored. Most EB-5 visas are issued at consulates, rather than AOS.

Internal retrogression for China is pretty much the same as saying EB-5 will reach their FY2014 allocation of 10,667 visas.

UPDATE :- This is the official announcement from DOS.