EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[RMS_V13]

Quoting based on Trackkitt approvals. SEVERAL applicants including myself got approved yesterday, we were getting anxious since everyone around us seem to be getting theirs. This is the highest we have seen since July 1st. May be TSC was waiting for the Sept VB to start processing EB2 I. If the trend continues, early 2009 applicants can get their approval.

My opinion based on why TSC took so long is, the cases were not subjected to background checks in advance anticipating movement. BCs had to be re-run causing the extra delay. I feel the Additional Review status can be attributed to this. To support this, L2 told me that my app was not pre-adjudicated and he can't tell whats going on, except someone "looked" which is consistent with subjecting my file to some kind of processing

[Light@EOT]

Hi All

I have been a silent follower of this forum. It is doing a great job in throwing lot of light into all these chaos. Trying and finding some (lot of) patterns and predictions, taking out wild guesses. Good job guys, keep it up.

Now, I have a thought/ questions:

Many gurus say that there is no need for CO to build up inventory and he has enough for FY15.

With the latest visa bulletin moving the EB2-I dates to May 01, 2009, by the end of sept, my guestimate is that CO would be left with around 13K inventory. (Is this correct?). If not, what is the figure expected. (Out of these 13K, all of them may not be 100% fit for GC for some reason or other. Or why is that we still case from 2004, 5 and 6 in 485 pending inventory?. My guesstimate here is 1K no-fit cases)

Following the last few years trend, EB2-I is getting around 18K to 20K every year.

This being the case, for FY15, CO would still need around 6 to 8K more. (So as not to waste any visas). Assuming 2K from porting (again, is this correct?), he would still need around 4 to 6K more.

Allowing for processing time of 4 months, he would need to call these IN 4 months before last quarter of FY15. That should be somewhere in March or April. (Further I believe USCIS will be overloaded with H1B season).

So I believe (Hope) there is a chance for inventory buildup sometime early next spring.

I believe CO would rather collect and have more inventoried not so as not to waste VISAs.

Am I missing something (or lot of things?) Gurus, any thoughts on these lines?

[kd2008]

Hi All

I have been a silent follower of this forum. It is doing a great job in throwing lot of light into all these chaos. Trying and finding some (lot of) patterns and predictions, taking out wild guesses. Good job guys, keep it up.

Now, I have a thought/ questions:

Many gurus say that there is no need for CO to build up inventory and he has enough for FY15.

With the latest visa bulletin moving the EB2-I dates to May 01, 2009, by the end of sept, my guestimate is that CO would be left with around 13K inventory. (Is this correct?). If not, what is the figure expected. (Out of these 13K, all of them may not be 100% fit for GC for some reason or other. Or why is that we still case from 2004, 5 and 6 in 485 pending inventory?. My guesstimate here is 1K no-fit cases)

Following the last few years trend, EB2-I is getting around 18K to 20K every year.

This being the case, for FY15, CO would still need around 6 to 8K more. (So as not to waste any visas). Assuming 2K from porting (again, is this correct?), he would still need around 4 to 6K more.

Allowing for processing time of 4 months, he would need to call these IN 4 months before last quarter of FY15. That should be somewhere in March or April. (Further I believe USCIS will be overloaded with H1B season).

So I believe (Hope) there is a chance for inventory buildup sometime early next spring.

I believe CO would rather collect and have more inventoried not so as not to waste VISAs.

Am I missing something (or lot of things?) Gurus, any thoughts on these lines?

Light@EOT welcome to the forum. Please read the discussion between Spec & me in the last 5-6 pages regarding inventory build up.

[qesehmk]

So I believe (Hope) there is a chance for inventory buildup sometime early next spring.

Welcome Light. Yes there is a 60% chance as I see it today. If at end of 2015 EB2I only reaches Q1 2010 then CO doesn't have to build inventory during spring of 2015. He can wait until Sep of 2015.

So the question is will EB2I reach at least Q1 2010 by Sep 2015. Right now it is a bit premature to predict. But i think there is a slightly more than 50% chance that it will.

[imdeng]

Light@EOT - Welcome to the forum and excellent first post BTW.

Next year is a grey area mostly because we don't know how bad it is going to be. The headwinds are considerable. We are carrying unusually high amounts of inventory in EB1 and EB2-ROW/M/P. A lot of cases are stuck in the PERM slowdown. If next year turned out to be the one that clears the PERM pipeline and draws down the high inventory levels, then we might be left with very little spillover. If spillover is small enough then there will be no need for inventory buildup in FY2015.

OTOH - something of other unanticipated factor comes out every year. High SO this year because of PERM slowdown was not anticipated by many. If you see Matt's spreadsheet, his target dates kept going up through the year with each revision. Something else might come out to be significant next year. Any takers for crackdown on EB1C misuse :-)

[Light@EOT]

Welcome Light. Yes there is a 60% chance as I see it today. If at end of 2015 EB2I only reaches Q1 2010 then CO doesn't have to build inventory during spring of 2015. He can wait until Sep of 2015.

... but in this case, ( assuming EB2I gets around 18K) there would be none (or very little) left to start the new FY 2016 with... will that be a desirable case for CO... just a thought...

Further, spring is when H1 season starts and to avoid "Rush of workload" wont it be better for CO to collect it little earlier ( wishful thinking)

[Light@EOT]

13K + about 5K more (new applications and porters).

If the next year is very good for spillovers, yes, an inventory buildup will happen. It depends upon EB1 mainly where the spillover will come from.

sportsfan33 - you think 5K new + porter between now and then ( then being May 2010 PD assuming we reach there ...)

[jimmys]

I don't see CIS doing inventory build up in spring 2015.

There are enough reasons. 1. NOT all applicants prior to May 01,2009 are gonna get approved before next spring. There will be a few thousands left out if not more(I firmly believe this is the case. If the numbers are enough to cover May 1, 2009 then the CoD would have been July 1,2009 to avoid visa wastage. In addition to these there were a lot of RFEs that were sent as late as July). 2. There will be about 4K (If you follow the last few years' trend) porters/new applicants for the next one year.

If you add these figures, 13300 (Current pending inventory between May 01,2009 - May 01,2010 as per July 2014) + 4000 (approx) + 2000 (left outs) = 19300. 19300 - 2800 (Regular) = 16500. Even if the spillover is gonna be 15K(This year's spillover is at 15K???) next year I don't see a reason for inventory build up before Sep 2015. If (a big if indeed) there's gonna be more than 18K/20K spillover next year then the inventory build up may happen sooner than Sep 2015. This year's spillover was aided by slow PERM approvals of EB2WW applicants.

And, any inventory build up is not good for people who are yet to file 485(like me) with PD after May 01,2009 as it will take another year (or a couple of years) for them to see the GC due to massive date movements back and forth.

[bluelabel]

If inventory build up does not happen in spring 2015 then CO has to move dates to May 1st 2010 by early spring. if CO moves dates in early spring to 1st May 2010, he will have enough time to accurately calculate the demand by July 2015 otherwise CO has to aggressively move dates in last quarter FY2015 to build inventory.

[qesehmk]

... but in this case, ( assuming EB2I gets around 18K) there would be none (or very little) left to start the new FY 2016 with... will that be a desirable case for CO... just a thought...

Further, spring is when H1 season starts and to avoid "Rush of workload" wont it be better for CO to collect it little earlier ( wishful thinking)

As I said it all depends on how EB2I's prospects look in 2015.

In the scenario you mention there would still be 5K porters from 2015 and 5K in 2016.

[Kanmani]

As I said it all depends on how EB2I's prospects look in 2015.

In the scenario you mention there would still be 5K porters from 2015 and 5K in 2016.

Q,

My opinion is that in a normal year with no retrogression in the mid of the FY, porters account for 3k of the total eb2I approvals. 5k is on the upper end.

I do think that there will be a forward movement as early as may'15 to finish of the FY2015, further to generate demand.

[jimmys]

If inventory build up does not happen in spring 2015 then CO has to move dates to May 1st 2010 by early spring. if CO moves dates in early spring to 1st May 2010, he will have enough time to accurately calculate the demand by July 2015 otherwise CO has to aggressively move dates in last quarter FY2015 to build inventory.

For that to happen there should be very light utilization by both EB1 and EB2WW for the first two quarters. Unless it's going to be more than 15K spillover I don't see a reason for CO to move dates in spring beyond May 01,2010. If EB2WW PERM approvals pick up I won't be surprised if next year's spillover is somewhere between 8-10K.

I don't have the correct numbers yet. But,even with low EB2WW PERM approvals this year's spillover was 10K (approx between Jun/Jul 08 - May 01,2009) + 5K porters (approx) = 15K in total (approx). It's just the ballpark figure.

If EB1 and EB5 consume their quota, and EB2WW PERM approval starts picking up the spillover scenario for 2015 is bleak as of now. Of course, it could change if any of the underlying circumstances change. But the probability for that to happen is low.

[qesehmk]

Q,

My opinion is that in a normal year with no retrogression in the mid of the FY, porters account for 3k of the total eb2I approvals. 5k is on the upper end.

I do think that there will be a forward movement as early as may'15 to finish of the FY2015, further to generate demand.

Kanmani - I think 3K is an old number. It's been a while I have been using 5K. But I admit I haven't verified it quite well. Besides if anything it makes the forecast conservative. And as immigration situation becomes acute we may see the number grow. If you think about it EB3 folks in 2004/5/6/7/8 will all try to upgrade ... even 9/10/11. Why not. So finding 5K folks among approx 60-80K people is not that hard.

I am optimistic that there will be an inventory build up. But I will wait to pass even a preliminary judgement on it until the 2015 picture is somewhat clear.

[jimmys]

Oct 2014 inventory data would be a right place to start.

[bieber]

Kanmani,

I'm unable to send private messages, how can we create space?

here is what I wanted to say, sorry about cut off date, one thing for sure, next FY is yours. I was in exactly same spot last year.

[tenyearsgone]

If you think about it EB3 folks in 2004/5/6/7/8 will all try to upgrade ... even 9/10/11. Why not.

This is certainly true esp. in the hot job markets. Anecdotally, I have seen this happening a bunch of times in the Bay Area where folks from 08/09 have proactively upgraded and 2010 folks are contemplating it in anticipation of EB2I date movement.

[Kanmani]

Kanmani,

I'm unable to send private messages, how can we create space?

here is what I wanted to say, sorry about cut off date, one thing for sure, next FY is yours. I was in exactly same spot last year.

Thanks B. These RFEs and the hint from CO about dates moving to spring ( I hate that word ) gave confidence (I’m The King Of The World woooho whooohoooo”- kind of ) for some time. I am alright now.

Regarding PM, you must clear some old messages to create space. If you think they are precious, you can move them to a word document and save it .

[Kanmani]

Kanmani - I think 3K is an old number. It's been a while I have been using 5K. But I admit I haven't verified it quite well. Besides if anything it makes the forecast conservative. And as immigration situation becomes acute we may see the number grow. If you think about it EB3 folks in 2004/5/6/7/8 will all try to upgrade ... even 9/10/11. Why not. So finding 5K folks among approx 60-80K people is not that hard.

I am optimistic that there will be an inventory build up. But I will wait to pass even a preliminary judgement on it until the 2015 picture is somewhat clear.

People from 2004 to '11 are upgrading constantly, not all , people are still stuck for valid reasons. The up-gradation takes place all over the year but the window for visa allotment has shrunken. This gate closing policy of DoS by retrogressing the dates prohibits a porter to reserve a place holder on the next available visa line. I still think 3k is on the run. Opinions differ.

[Kanmani]

First of all i am sorry for posting this topic here. i dont know how to start a new thread ..Please move this to a different thread .

Question regarding finger printing appointment: when we go to the ASC is just passport enough as identification document? Actually my son does not have Non-driver photo ID. So i have just his passport. is that enough or i need to get a Non-driver photo ID from DMV.

Please help gurus..

Newguy,

You can certainly use the passport as photo id. I am sure about that.

[qesehmk]

People from 2004 to '11 are upgrading constantly, not all , people are still stuck for valid reasons. The up-gradation takes place all over the year but the window for visa allotment has shrunken. This gate closing policy of DoS by retrogressing the dates prohibits a porter to reserve a place holder on the next available visa line. I still think 3k is on the run. Opinions differ.

It makes it difficult but the moment gates open .... the crowd can run through. So on a full year basis I am more comfortable with 5K. As you say yes ... opinions can differ and so does comfort level of prediction.

[TeddyKoochu]

Kanmani and Q, Iam fairly sure Q would remember this.

- Porting was calculated way back as the reduction of EB3I inventory over a year minus the annual cap.
- This is a overstatement because we assumed that every case that fell into this category is porting.
- The only time this was done was back in 2011 and the number was calculated as 3K, this could never be done later on as CP numbers were mixed with inventory next year.
- Now back in 2010 - 2011 EB3-I inventory used to be 60K now its 30K, so you would notice that potential candidates for porting is kind of half.
- Now if you dig deeper into this most of the folks who are stuck now are either a) Having a 3 yr degree or a combination that cannot be evaluated as a 4Yr degree b) People stuck in companies which have a policy of 'No porting' even for people who are Directors by now c) People who are happy to be on EAD.
- Only people who are in category b) can potentially port even though the condition for EB3-I is absolutely horrible.

Just my personal thought is that porting number should not go up and even in the worst case scenario should stay at 3K because the number of potential porters is less now. Honestly there is no way to count upgrades for people who have not filed their 485 from Jul 2007 to Till date maybe an assumption that 2/3rds for India are ultimately EB2 is closer to reality.

[qesehmk]

Teddy

Nice to hear from you. I think the inventory is much more than 30K. I think it is closer to 60-80K if you count 2007 till 2014 that never had chance to file.

Kanmani and Q, Iam fairly sure Q would remember this.

- Porting was calculated way back as the reduction of EB3I inventory over a year minus the annual cap.
- This is a overstatement because we assumed that every case that fell into this category is porting.
- The only time this was done was back in 2011 and the number was calculated as 3K, this could never be done later on as CP numbers were mixed with inventory next year.
- Now back in 2010 - 2011 EB3-I inventory used to be 60K now its 30K, so you would notice that potential candidates for porting is kind of half.
- Now if you dig deeper into this most of the folks who are stuck now are either a) Having a 3 yr degree or a combination that cannot be evaluated as a 4Yr degree b) People stuck in companies which have a policy of 'No porting' even for people who are Directors by now c) People who are happy to be on EAD.
- Only people who are in category b) can potentially port even though the condition for EB3-I is absolutely horrible.

Just my personal thought is that porting number should not go up and even in the worst case scenario should stay at 3K because the number of potential porters is less now. Honestly there is no way to count upgrades for people who have not filed their 485 from Jul 2007 to Till date maybe an assumption that 2/3rds for India are ultimately EB2 is closer to reality.

[Kanmani]

Thanks Teddy. I included those you categorized under (a) and (b) in my calculation, as I know many EB3 ers who have no option to upgrade, but well placed, well paid and living in 750k houses around VA.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

Nice to hear from you. I think the inventory is much more than 30K. I think it is closer to 60-80K if you count 2007 till 2014 that never had chance to file.

The USCIS inventory count is 30K but that is only folks till Jul 2007. I think you are right about the grand total. Typically in a year EB2-3 maybe 50-50 but filing in EB3 it seems is just an aid to get H1B extension or reserve ones place in the queue in reality the EB2-3 split is really closer to 2:1. The number of EB3's post 2007 is the main area where the porting is happening and those folks are not in the inventory yet.

[qesehmk]

The USCIS inventory count is 30K but that is only folks till Jul 2007. I think you are right about the grand total. Typically in a year EB2-3 maybe 50-50 but filing in EB3 it seems is just an aid to get H1B extension or reserve ones place in the queue in reality the EB2-3 split is really closer to 2:1. The number of EB3's post 2007 is the main area where the porting is happening and those folks are not in the inventory yet.

Teddy you are right about EB2:3 split. In terms of porting though one doesn't need to be in the inventory to port. That's why I am at 5K.