EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Kanmani]

Wow! That's it! One more Year!
('Four more years' was a happy message though.)

[qesehmk]

So as expected the EB2-I dates did move albeit not upto Oct 2009.

And that is fine. It is a good indication of how DoS is committed to FIFO from its end. In other words they want to make sure that they can provide visas to people in the order of their priority and do it in a manner that ensures visa availability for most of them.

I am glad that we were right on the money this year too. May 2009 is going to mean people upto Mar 2009 will definitely clear. People in April have probably 50% chance since I would imagine CO made slightly bigger move than was necessary to ensure all Visas get utilized.

I am also cautiously optimistic that the dates may not retrogress upto Dec bulletin. So people in April 2009 should at least get through in Oct/Nov if not in Sep. Good luck everybody.

[vishnu]

Comparing commentary in Sep 2014 bulletin vs Sep 2013 bulletin, suggests there could be more date movement next month

Sep 2014 (keeping it open)
Continued forward movement of this cut-off date during the upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, however, and no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Once there is a significant increase in India Employment Second preference demand it will be necessary to retrogress the cut-off date, possibly as early as November, to hold number use within the fiscal year 2015 annual limit.

Sep 2013 (commentary suggestive of movement having been completed)
India: This cut-off date has been advanced significantly more than originally expected, based on the projection that there would be "otherwise unused" numbers under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. This is the result of a decrease in Employment First preference number use, and a similar decrease in Employment Second preference demand for most other countries during the past two months. It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.

[qbloguser]

No movement for China!??

So as expected the EB2-I dates did move albeit not upto Oct 2009.

And that is fine. It is a good indication of how DoS is committed to FIFO from its end. In other words they want to make sure that they can provide visas to people in the order of their priority and do it in a manner that ensures visa availability for most of them.

I am glad that we were right on the money this year too. May 2009 is going to mean people upto Mar 2009 will definitely clear. People in April have probably 50% chance since I would imagine CO made slightly bigger move than was necessary to ensure all Visas get utilized.

I am also cautiously optimistic that the dates may not retrogress upto Dec bulletin. So people in April 2009 should at least get through in Oct/Nov if not in Sep. Good luck everybody.

[qesehmk]

No movement for China!??

They don't get the benefit of these extra visas during last month because the visas go to most backlogged country i.e. India.

However I would've expected 1 month movement for China. The fact there wasn't means China has reached their cap for the year in August itself.

[geniusmag]

So as expected the EB2-I dates did move albeit not upto Oct 2009.

And that is fine. It is a good indication of how DoS is committed to FIFO from its end. In other words they want to make sure that they can provide visas to people in the order of their priority and do it in a manner that ensures visa availability for most of them.

I am glad that we were right on the money this year too. May 2009 is going to mean people upto Mar 2009 will definitely clear. People in April have probably 50% chance since I would imagine CO made slightly bigger move than was necessary to ensure all Visas get utilized.

I am also cautiously optimistic that the dates may not retrogress upto Dec bulletin. So people in April 2009 should at least get through in Oct/Nov if not in Sep. Good luck everybody.

Can one expect further movement in the Oct bulletin based on the 2015 quota being available or is that it until July 2015 ? If it is the latter what happens to folks after May 2009 who have responded to the RFE - medicals again next year ?

[Praslee]

Is it true that the visa number is allocated in FIFO by priority date? My priority data is Sep 30 2008 and my attorney will apply the AOS sometime this week (say by Aug 15th). So do you think that I have a good chance of getting GC this year only, provided there are no major RFEs? thanks.

So as expected the EB2-I dates did move albeit not upto Oct 2009.

And that is fine. It is a good indication of how DoS is committed to FIFO from its end. In other words they want to make sure that they can provide visas to people in the order of their priority and do it in a manner that ensures visa availability for most of them.

I am glad that we were right on the money this year too. May 2009 is going to mean people upto Mar 2009 will definitely clear. People in April have probably 50% chance since I would imagine CO made slightly bigger move than was necessary to ensure all Visas get utilized.

I am also cautiously optimistic that the dates may not retrogress upto Dec bulletin. So people in April 2009 should at least get through in Oct/Nov if not in Sep. Good luck everybody.

[Kanmani]

Comparing commentary in Sep 2014 bulletin vs Sep 2013 bulletin, suggests there could be more date movement next month

Sep 2014 (keeping it open)
Continued forward movement of this cut-off date during the upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, however, and no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Once there is a significant increase in India Employment Second preference demand it will be necessary to retrogress the cut-off date, possibly as early as November, to hold number use within the fiscal year 2015 annual limit.

Sep 2013 (commentary suggestive of movement having been completed)
India: This cut-off date has been advanced significantly more than originally expected, based on the projection that there would be "otherwise unused" numbers under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. This is the result of a decrease in Employment First preference number use, and a similar decrease in Employment Second preference demand for most other countries during the past two months. It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.

Vishnu,

I interpreted the wordings in the same way you did, but that doesn't fit right into the retrogression warning on dates might be unavailable as early as November.

I am not ready for this 'Hope' theory at this moment. I am done.

I am a bit happy that my prediction on Sept'14 CoD was correct.

[qesehmk]

Can one expect further movement in the Oct bulletin based on the 2015 quota being available or is that it until July 2015 ?

There is some weak evidence that would make one optimistic about some movement in Oct. This movement - if materializes - would strictly be based on 2015 quota and not based on the need to create inventory.

As of now there is no need for CO to create inventory because he still has 1 year worth EB2I inventory. But you never know he might want to have more than 1 year inventory on hand!

See Vishnu's post above. I concur with that view but I didn't want to raise expectations too much and hence I didn't talk about it in my earlier post today.

[imdeng]

Oh Boy! So this year is done. Congratulations and best wishes to folks current in the Sept bulletin. Based on the movement, it seems like most of the folks current should be able to get through this FY or in Oct.

The language is vague enough to leave the possibility of an Oct movement. At least maintaining the dates during Oct seems like a good bet. Retrogression is scheduled for Nov bulletin. I am still holding out for 01NOV2009 in Oct bulletin to consume some of FY2015 numbers.

[tomhagen]

Can one expect further movement in the Oct bulletin based on the 2015 quota being available or is that it until July 2015 ? If it is the latter what happens to folks after May 2009 who have responded to the RFE - medicals again next year ?

Sorry if it is disappointing but I don't think there will any further movement. May 09 is stretch and 2015 quota will be used to accommodate the PD's up until May 09. Also I am optimistic that retrogression will not happen in November. And for the folks after May 09, it starts all over again for Medicals

[qesehmk]

Is it true that the visa number is allocated in FIFO by priority date? My priority data is Sep 30 2008 and my attorney will apply the AOS sometime this week (say by Aug 15th). So do you think that I have a good chance of getting GC this year only, provided there are no major RFEs? thanks.

At a Macro level the answer is yes it is FIFO. For Sep 2009 the chances of obtaining GC in next 2-4 months are close to nil (RFE or no RFE). Sorry for the tough predicament. I hope Spec/Kanmani/Sport/Viz etc also chime in.

p.s. Regarding FIFO - DoS only indirectly ensures FIFO. If USCIS requests a visa number and one is available DoS has to give one. DoS doesn't really do anything else in terms of prioritizing. So it's really USCIS that needs to ensure FIFO and they do an ok job at it.

That's why DoS is very careful in moving the dates because otherwise USCIS is a crazy place .. they will approve 2009 folks while 2006 people are waiting. No kidding!

p.p.s. - I misread Praslee's date. My bad. Sep 2008 should be ok this year.

[rka_72]

Now that the Sep bulletin is out, I think now TSC will start considering the Aug bulletin cases

[MATT2012]

Congrats to all who got current today and all here(Q, Spec, Kanmani,...) who got the calculations of this year EB2i movement very close to accurate. No surprises in either EB2I or EB3I.

[cursedguy]

Oh Boy! So this year is done. Congratulations and best wishes to folks current in the Sept bulletin. Based on the movement, it seems like most of the folks current should be able to get through this FY or in Oct.

The language is vague enough to leave the possibility of an Oct movement. At least maintaining the dates during Oct seems like a good bet. Retrogression is scheduled for Nov bulletin. I am still holding out for 01NOV2009 in Oct bulletin to consume some of FY2015 numbers.

Sorry that you did not get current this year, I like your optimism. See you around then!


EDIT: And a big thanks to Spec, Q and others who got it right again!. Trackit is down since yesterday, it cant handle Eb2I traffic.

[Praslee]

Thanks. But in your original post you said "I am glad that we were right on the money this year too. May 2009 is going to mean people upto Mar 2009 will definitely clear". ZThen, what do you mean by saying "For Sep 2008 the chances of obtaining GC in next 2-4 months are close to nil (RFE or no RFE)."

At a Macro level the answer is yes it is FIFO. For Sep 2008 the chances of obtaining GC in next 2-4 months are close to nil (RFE or no RFE). Sorry for the tough predicament. I hope Spec/Kanmani/Sport/Viz etc also chime in.

p.s. Regarding FIFO - DoS only indirectly ensures FIFO. If USCIS requests a visa number and one is available DoS has to give one. DoS doesn't really do anything else in terms of prioritizing. So it's really USCIS that needs to ensure FIFO and they do an ok job at it.

That's why DoS is very careful in moving the dates because otherwise USCIS is a crazy place .. they will approve 2009 folks while 2006 people are waiting. No kidding!

[qesehmk]

Thanks. But in your original post you said "I am glad that we were right on the money this year too. May 2009 is going to mean people upto Mar 2009 will definitely clear". ZThen, what do you mean by saying "For Sep 2008 the chances of obtaining GC in next 2-4 months are close to nil (RFE or no RFE)."

Stupid me!!

I read your date as Sep 2009. Sorry. Sep 2008 should get a GC this year itself. The dates will retrogress in Dec 2015. So you have ample time from now till then.

[anuprab]

yeah I don't understand the same, my sister who was nov 2008 got cleared in first week of Aug. So I am guessing people upto May 2009 are definitely going to get cleared in the next 2 months or so.

[Praslee]

Thanks. I can see you being overwhelmed with questions.

Stupid me!!

I read your date as Sep 2009. Sorry. Sep 2008 should get a GC this year itself. The dates will retrogress in Dec 2015. So you have ample time from now till then.

[qesehmk]

a big thanks to Spec, Q and others who got it right again!

and viz kanmani sport jagan matt imdeng and many others. Sorry if I am forgetting anybody.

[Kanmani]

Matt, I was praying for your optimistic prediction to come true just like it happened last year. I do check your excel sheet very often. Thanks.

Congratulations to all our members who are current and I wish Viz, Sportsfan and all others waiting, all the best for your speedy approval.

[imdeng]

We started the year with EB2I: 15JUN08, ending with 01MAY09 -> 10.5 months movement. A less than 1 year movement even after some pretty significant tailwinds - EB2ROW slowdown, low density in EB2I during late 2008 and 2009, extra visas from FB. Given this, considering that next year is getting set up to be full of headwinds (except continued low density in EB2I in 2009), its going to be quite painful going forward. Buckle up folks - its going to be a rough ride.

[anuprab]

do you think there will be movement post May 1 2010 to build inventory? This is so frustrating as we missed the boat 3 yrs back by 2 days and now waiting to get current. I am not even expecting greencard but just want to be able to file 485. Is this too much to ask !!

We started the year with EB2I: 15JUN08, ending with 01MAY09 -> 10.5 months movement. A less than 1 year movement even after some pretty significant tailwinds - EB2ROW slowdown, low density in EB2I during late 2008 and 2009, extra visas from FB. Given this, considering that next year is getting set up to be full of headwinds (except continued low density in EB2I in 2009), its going to be quite painful going forward. Buckle up folks - its going to be a rough ride.

[gcseeker2009]

Folks- I am a silent spectator of this forum for the past 2.5 years and this is my first post. I would be current in September. My PD is 04/09/09. Thanks to all the gurus for the accurate predictions. Now I am bracing myself for the roller coaster ride in September. Thanks again team...u guys are doing a awesome job.

[ramaka02]

I concur, thank you guys for doing such an accurate and noble job of helping us all! Being an uber optimist (Saggi trait) that I am, I would not lose hope about the dates not moving further. You never know after all it is DOS and our fav USCIS that we are talking about here !