EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[helpful_leo]

If the date stays put, that means they are tight on numbers. They can internally retrogress any time in September (this happened around mid September last year). They will issue GCs to folks in October but it remains to be seen the extent to which they will burn the numbers so early in the FY.

if the date moves OTOH, it means they have plentiful numbers, so folks like me who will only get a chance to send an RFE response by next week will have a very good chance to get greened.

Thanks - makes sense.
I hope likewise, as I am 2 months behind you in terms of PD, but with an earlier RFER date.

It might turn out this arbitrary policy change regarding termination of medicals screwed us all by jacking up TSCs workload and hampering their (minimal) efficiency!

[Kanmani]

In my case, I believe sending AC21 papers last year was a bad idea. If I ever get some more info on why I didn't receive the mass RFE in May/June itself, I will post it here. However from trackitt, I could figure out a decent set of people who were without RFEs and this was one of the reasons.

Sportsfan, believe it or not, it is all random. As per the personal data collection from friends and friends' friends', sending AC21 papers has no role in the chaos happening right now.

Did you analyze the RFE pattern with RD? Are you a Jan 2012 filer? My memory says, you or your family were in India that time(?)

I think cases might have been handed over to new/partially trained/half baked officers. As some one suggested DACA cases are in the fore front right now and looks like there is a meeting scheduled to discuss about those DACA cases with the new USCIS Director.

[helpful_leo]

I agree there should be some semblance though. Vizcard has a straight EB2I case and has responded to the mass RFE back in June. He should have been greened by now. I am seriously wondering why the TSC is holding his case until now.

There are a couple of others on Trackitt like Viz, current since July 1 and RFER near or past 60 days. Incidentally, someone with PD Jan 7, 2009, RD 3/10/12 and RFE sent date 7/10/14 (user name 'susarch') got approved at TSC!

And then when one compares TSC vs NSC, it gets all the more annoying.

I think for a process that even in its normal course takes a numbing 6 years + for approval, USCIS should be compelled to adopt a more transparent and accountable process so that just because TSC has workflow issues, its customers cannot be forced to wait an extra year or two!

[cursedguy]

There are a couple of others on Trackitt like Viz, current since July 1 and RFER near or past 60 days. Incidentally, someone with PD Jan 7, 2009, RD 3/10/12 and RFE sent date 7/10/14 (user name 'susarch') got approved at TSC!

And then when one compares TSC vs NSC, it gets all the more annoying.

I think for a process that even in its normal course takes a numbing 6 years + for approval, USCIS should be compelled to adopt a more transparent and accountable process so that just because TSC has workflow issues, its customers cannot be forced to wait an extra year or two!

Unfortunately, they are two reasons for this:

1. TSC has less staff vs NSC
2. Majority of the DACA cases fall under TSC jurisdiction because they are border states.
When they changed the law for DACA they(congress/president) obviously did not think of providing more resources to process DACA applications.

[vizcard]

Unfortunately, they are two reasons for this:

1. TSC has less staff vs NSC
2. Majority of the DACA cases fall under TSC jurisdiction because they are border states.
When they changed the law for DACA they(congress/president) obviously did not think of providing more resources to process DACA applications.

...... and Obama is thinking of giving EADs to illegals. Guess where most of them are

[Spectator]

2. Majority of the DACA cases fall under TSC jurisdiction because they are border states.
When they changed the law for DACA they(congress/president) obviously did not think of providing more resources to process DACA applications.

Not sure that is true.

I had a quick look at the number of DACA cases accepted by State and the Filing Lockbox address for that State.

For those that have more than 10k cases (about 80% of all cases) the numbers are:

Chicago -- 245,744
Phoenix -- 206,253
Dallas --- 190,658

That doesn't suggest Texas are overburdened compared to Nebraska.

Edit:- Updated with figures for all States.

[cursedguy]

Not sure that is true.

I had a quick look at the number of DACA cases accepted by State and the Filing Lockbox address for that State.

For those that have more than 10k cases (about 80% of all cases) the numbers are:

Chicago -- 179,768
Phoenix -- 206,253
Dallas --- 132,318

That doesn't suggest Texas are overburdened compared to Nebraska.

Fair Disclosure :- Phoenix only deals with Arizona and California so their complete total is shown above. The Chicago and Dallas numbers will be larger than shown (sharing another 124k between them) for all States, but I don't have the will do all 50 States. Ultimately, no lockbox is likely to have significantly more than any other.

I may be wrong but border states have more requests..

http://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/imm...e-legalization

California 162,007 29%
Texas 88,106 16%
Illinois 30,982 6%
New York 28,414 5%
Florida 22,021 4%
Arizona 19,990 4%
North Carolina 19,883 4%
Georgia 17,356 3%
New Jersey 15,681 3%
Colorado 12,132 2%


Of the 553,197 applications approved to date, 427,653, or 77 percent, are originally from Mexico, with several other Latin American countries making up the remaining top 10 countries of origin of DACA approvals. California is home to the most DACA recipients, with 29 percent of the 553,197 approved. Texas, Illinois, New York and Florida follow with a combined 31 percent.

So I think TSC = 88106 + 22021 +19883+17356 (Texax, FL, NC, GA) = 147366
where NSC = 30982 + 12132 (IL, CO) = 43114

It seems TSC is processing more than 3 times compared to NSC but the Top processing center is California.

Let me know if something is wrong..

EDIT: I see the difference now between our calculations, I think the lockbox service just sorts your application and forwards the application to the correct service center (they dont process it). I'm assuming they have to be processed at CSC, TSC, NSC or VSC right ?

[Spectator]

Of course the border states have more requests, but that does not mean TSC handle the cases.

You need to look at the filing address to see where the cases are likely to be processed. Just because they are border states does not mean they are processed at TSC.

I have updated my previous post with the totals for each lockbox for all states and territories. I'll reproduce it here:

Chicago -- 245,744
Phoenix -- 206,253
Dallas --- 190,658

Phoenix lockbox generally goes to NSC
Dallas lockbox generally goes to TSC
Chicago lockbox generally goes to Chicago (or wherever the FB cases are processed (not NSC or TSC)).

[cursedguy]

Of course the border states have more requests, but that does not mean TSC handle the cases.

You need to look at the filing address to see where the cases are likely to be processed. Just because they are border states does not mean they are processed at TSC.

I have updated my previous post with the totals for each lockbox for all states and territories. I'll reproduce it here:

Chicago -- 245,744
Phoenix -- 206,253
Dallas --- 190,658

Phoenix lockbox generally goes to NSC
Dallas lockbox generally goes to TSC
Chicago lockbox generally goes to Chicago (or wherever the FB cases are processed (not NSC or TSC)).

DACA
Requests Filed
with USCIS :
USCIS will process all DACA requests, regardless of whether the individual
is in removal proceedings (unless the individual is in immigration detention
under the custody of ICE) or subject to a final order of removal. Depending
on when the order was issued, this could be an order of deportation, exclusion
or removal. A complete DACA package consists of concurrently filed Forms
I-821D, Consideration of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals and I-765,
Application for Employment Authorization, with the worksheet, Form I-
765WS. Forms I-821D and I-765 must be filed concurrently. DACA requests
will be adjudicated by all four Service Centers.

Somebody already used FOIA to find out how they process the applications. Page 18 - it says the applications are processes at all Four service centers but doesnt say what logic they use to send the applications to those service centers - So I rest my case , I assumed it is by jurisdiction of the service centers.

http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-cont...se-Package.pdf

[Spectator]

cursedguy,

I think I have already shown you the logic USCIS use to process requests.

Rather than overburden a single SC which happens to be geographically closer to the majority of requests, USCIS has designated where to file the request by State. This ensures a fairly even distribution of processing across the SCs based on their processing capacity.

If it doesn't, USCIS can reroute some cases to other SC for load balancing.

DACA is not a consideration for the slow pace of EB approvals at TSC.

[kd2008]

cursedguy,

I think I have already shown you the logic USCIS use to process requests.

Rather than overburden a single SC which happens to be geographically closer to the majority of requests, USCIS has designated where to file the request by State. This ensures a fairly even distribution of processing across the SCs.

If it doesn't, USCIS can reroute some cases to other SC for load balancing.

DACA is not a consideration for the slow pace of EB approvals at TSC.

Spec, I agree with your analysis. The Texas Service Center is not overburdened when compared to others as of now based on the current available data. May I hint at upcoming Executive orders by the President. Last time USCIS marshaled and rejigged the workflow and adjudicators for DACA relief in record 6 weeks. I believe the same will be true for the upcoming relief whatever it may be. TSC is showing peculiar behavior for sure and it may be indicative of what the focus of change might be. This is pure conjecture - and not backed by any solid evidence on my part.

[Spectator]

Spec, I agree with your analysis. The Texas Service Center is not overburdened when compared to others as of now based on the current available data. May I hint at upcoming Executive orders by the President. Last time USCIS marshaled and rejigged the workflow and adjudicators for DACA relief in record 6 weeks. I believe the same will be true for the upcoming relief whatever it may be. TSC is showing peculiar behavior for sure and it may be indicative of what the focus of change might be. This is pure conjecture - and not backed by any solid evidence on my part.

kd,

I don't disagree that if EO expands the concept, then the situation might change.

Even then, I would say the timing of any such announcement is unlikely to affect FY2014 processing.

Like others, I am quite worried about the lack of approvals from TSC.

I was looking back at last year's figures. In the last 7 days in September 2013 before visas ran out, 263 (80%) of the 332 approvals on Trackitt for EB2-I were from TSC. That was more than a third of total TSC EB2-I approvals for August/September in a period of just 7 days (the last ones at that).

It's a bit sad to see the same pattern potentially repeating this year.

PS In the period Oct 1-8 2013, TSC Trackitt approvals were 98 compared to NSC's 28. The disparity suggests TSC approvals were less than they should have been in FY2014, had they been up to speed in the same way as NSC was.

[Feb262009]

Is there any way someone (like AILA) check why the Visa bulletin is not yet released? I wonder.

[geterdone]

Is there any way someone (like AILA) check why the Visa bulletin is not yet released? I wonder.

last year it was released on the 12th of August. So may be it will be out tomorrow.

[Kanmani]

FY-2013's September bulletin was released on August 12th of '13. They are well within their time window.

[Feb262009]

Thank you for your replies. I thought 10th is the cut-off. Looks like it is not.

[helpful_leo]

Add to those puzzles the TSC pattern of approvals, things start getting murkier. There is a game being played that we do not quite understand and we can only hope will be brought to some successful closure.

Haven't seen a more opportune place to employ Hanlon's Razor

Never attribute to malice (or strategy) that which is adequately explained by stupidity (or incompetence)!

[RMS_V13]

Vizcard and I are both July filers at about 50 wish days from RFERR. No flipping updates.
Waiting for Sept VB to decide if I have to start being aggressive in following up.

[Rachel]

Vizcard and I are both July filers at about 50 wish days from RFERR. No flipping updates.
Waiting for Sept VB to decide if I have to start being aggressive in following up.

Hi - Our PD is June 25th 2008 filed at TSC. I am worried that our GC's might not come thru this year with the way things are going. What can I do to followup? I read here about calling the senator or getting infopass..Can somebody provide information about ways to followup and process for it. Thanks so much.

[RMS_V13]

Hi - Our PD is June 25th 2008 filed at TSC. I am worried that our GC's might not come thru this year with the way things are going. What can I do to followup? I read here about calling the senator or getting infopass..Can somebody provide information about ways to followup and process for it. Thanks so much.

Just scroll thru the last 2 pages in this thread.

I'm hoping the bulletin get releases and then I'll make my move accordingly. If the dates advance, then I'll wait for 69 days from RFERR. If not raise SR. At this point I'm mentally prepared that I won't get this year and honestly it makes me envious of the NSC approvals.

before that, the talk to L2.

[smuggymba]

Shame on USCIS if they can't give GC to each and every individual whose PD is till Jan 2009 and has replied to any RFE in time.

[venkat]

what happened to September visa bulletion? Are they delaying it to accurately forecast and come up with a proper date?

My worry is more they move it is lesser the chance for people who are stuck in TSC delay queue as NSC would start approving left and right come September 1st.

Hope TSC wakes up soon....

[vedu]

Guys,

September visa bulletin is out. EB2 India cut off date is at 1st May 09.

[dorais]

September bulletin is out. EB2I is 01May2009.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...mber-2014.html


D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

INDIA Employment-based Second Preference: The use of potentially "otherwise unused" Employment numbers prescribed by Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) has allowed the India Employment Second preference cut-off date to advance very rapidly in recent months. Continued forward movement of this cut-off date during the upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, however, and no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Once there is a significant increase in India Employment Second preference demand it will be necessary to retrogress the cut-off date, possibly as early as November, to hold number use within the fiscal year 2015 annual limit.

[helpful_leo]

September bulletin is out. EB2I is 01May2009.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...mber-2014.html


D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

INDIA Employment-based Second Preference: The use of potentially "otherwise unused" Employment numbers prescribed by Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) has allowed the India Employment Second preference cut-off date to advance very rapidly in recent months. Continued forward movement of this cut-off date during the upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, however, and no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Once there is a significant increase in India Employment Second preference demand it will be necessary to retrogress the cut-off date, possibly as early as November, to hold number use within the fiscal year 2015 annual limit.

Experts,

Is this 3 month plus PD movement considered good, and what does it indicate about visa number availability?

Also, do the above notes indicate EB2I will remain current at least up to Jan 09 PD till end of October (i.e. another 2.5 months)?