EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[sairam09]

imdeng,

There is no provision in law for under use of EB3 visas to be used by other EB Categories (although it hasn't stopped CO from doing so in recent years).

Under the law, visas wasted in EB3 should result in under use of the overall EB allocation and would fall to the FB calculation in the next FY.

Spec where do you see this fiscal dates movement parked for EB2-I?

[imdeng]

Thanks for clarifying Spec. I had the thought that EB3 numbers, if available, will fall vertically to EB1 and then to EB2 - just like EB4/5 do.

imdeng,

There is no provision in law for under use of EB3 visas to be used by other EB Categories (although it hasn't stopped CO from doing so in recent years).

Under the law, visas wasted in EB3 should result in under use of the overall EB allocation and would fall to the FB calculation in the next FY.

[Spectator]

Spec where do you see this fiscal dates movement parked for EB2-I?

sairam,

I wish I could give you a simple answer - I can't.

The change in I-693 policy and the ability of the SC to issue RFE to all affected cases and process responses is in danger of causing a substantial disconnect between the number of cases pending (which is reasonably well known) and the demand they will create for DOS to issue visas within the FY2014 allocation (which is not).

Added to this is the continued apparent high consumption of EB1 (and possibly EB5).

I'll run through the whole spectrum of possibilities as I see them:

If CO chooses to move the COD purely based on the demand he is seeing generated to date, then he would probably have to move the EB2-I dates quite aggressively. There would be little point moving beyond a COD of 01NOV09, since that appears to be the high water mark for RFE issuance to date. All cases with a PD beyond June 14, 2008 must be more than one year old, other than those submitted from July 2014 onwards.

It's quite possible that CO has been in communication with USCIS (or will be) regarding processing timescales and the ability of USCIS to adjudicate sufficient cases. If that is the case, the forward movement could be more modest, assuming he believes the response he receives.

Finally, there is a very remote possibility that CO will both move EB2-I aggressively and also move some other Countries/Categories further than he might otherwise have done. That would present the opportunity for some other Categories/Countries to benefit from spare visas if he believes insufficient demand from EB2-I can be generated before year end. Certainly some December 2003 EB3-I applicants have reported receiving RFE for an updated I-693 - a date that is unattainable within the original EB3-I allocation. EB2-C (maybe) and EB3-C/M/ROW would also be in a position to mop up any spare visas, if the COD was moved forward. it would turn into a complete crap shoot, so I don't think this is a very likely scenario.

USCIS have yet again shown a complete inability to organize the proverbial "piss up in a brewery". The fault lies there and DOS have little ability to influence them.

Whatever happens, each scenario creates its own problems, either now, or in the future.

Treat my reply as the ramblings of a somewhat frustrated person, rather than an entirely well thought out answer.

[qesehmk]

USCIS have yet again shown a complete inability to organize the proverbial "piss up in a brewery".

Spec - I am really curious what you mean here!

Please reply about the first part of the sentence publicly. And since I am not quite familiar with second part - we can discuss that too over email privately

[sairam09]

sairam,

I wish I could give you a simple answer - I can't.

The change in I-693 policy and the ability of the SC to issue RFE to all affected cases and process responses is in danger of causing a substantial disconnect between the number of cases pending (which is reasonably well known) and the demand they will create for DOS to issue visas within the FY2014 allocation (which is not).

Added to this is the continued apparent high consumption of EB1 (and possibly EB5).

I'll run through the whole spectrum of possibilities as I see them:

If CO chooses to move the COD purely based on the demand he is seeing generated to date, then he would probably have to move the EB2-I dates quite aggressively. There would be little point moving beyond a COD of 01NOV09, since that appears to be the high water mark for RFE issuance to date. All cases with a PD beyond June 14, 2008 must be more than one year old, other than those submitted from July 2014 onwards.

It's quite possible that CO has been in communication with USCIS (or will be) regarding processing timescales and the ability of USCIS to adjudicate sufficient cases. If that is the case, the forward movement could be more modest, assuming he believes the response he receives.

Finally, there is a very remote possibility that CO will both move EB2-I aggressively and also move some other Countries/Categories further than he might otherwise have done. That would present the opportunity for some other Categories/Countries to benefit from spare visas if he believes insufficient demand from EB2-I can be generated before year end. Certainly some December 2003 EB3-I applicants have reported receiving RFE for an updated I-693 - a date that is unattainable within the original EB3-I allocation. EB2-C (maybe) and EB3-C/M/ROW would also be in a position to mop up any spare visas, if the COD was moved forward. it would turn into a complete crap shoot, so I don't think this is a very likely scenario.

USCIS have yet again shown a complete inability to organize the proverbial "piss up in a brewery". The fault lies there and DOS have little ability to influence them.

Whatever happens, each scenario creates its own problems, either now, or in the future.

Treat my reply as the ramblings of a somewhat frustrated person, rather than an entirely well thought out answer.

Thanks for your response..

"Treat my reply as the ramblings of a somewhat frustrated person, rather than an entirely well thought out answer." - This is what each individual is facing or under going right now..

[Spectator]

Spec - I am really curious what you mean here!

Please reply about the first part of the sentence publicly. And since I am not quite familiar with second part - we can discuss that too over email privately

Q,

Perhaps it's slang you are not familiar with.

A "piss up" means a group of people going out and drinking a lot (of beer).

Hence, "if someone couldn't organize a piss-up in a brewery", they are very bad at organizing things (to put it mildly).

[sairam09]

Spec for others who is not familiar with the slang, sounds like some is adulterating the original brewing factory...

[Spectator]

Spec for others who is not familiar with the slang, sounds like some is adulterating the original brewing factory...

That would just be a tragic waste of beer!!!

Well, some beers anyway. There's a few I think taste like that has already happened.

[MATT2012]

That would just be a tragic waste of beer!!!

Do you anticipate visa wastage?

[Spectator]

Do you anticipate visa wastage?

Matt,

Probably not, depending where the COD moves to. I assume you mean EB2-I wastage.

I can't get any sort of handle on the number of RFE that have been sent out to date, which makes an assessment rather difficult.

What's your view?

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec. I am not quite familiar with all these things!

But my question was - what is it that USCIS is doing (or not doing) currently that made you say that? Or is this just a general opinion.

I kind of share that opinion - just for the record. But just curious if something new happened.

Q,

Perhaps it's slang you are not familiar with.

A "piss up" means a group of people going out and drinking a lot (of beer).

Hence, "if someone couldn't organize a piss-up in a brewery", they are very bad at organizing things (to put it mildly).

[Jagan01]

Thanks Spec. I am not quite familiar with all these things!

But my question was - what is it that USCIS is doing (or not doing) currently that made you say that? Or is this just a general opinion.

I kind of share that opinion - just for the record. But just curious if something new happened.

Forgive my ignorance. I fail to understand this talk about visa wastage.

I feel last year USCIS did assign the visa numbers and later approved the cases in Oct and November. This scenario was put up by Q and I do believe that it happened. If USCIS can assign visa numbers and then give the actual visas in Oct/Nov then the same would happen this year. I do not see a possibility of visa wastage. Lets consider the rate of approvals is lower in Aug as well. The RFEs would surely be processed by Sep and visa numbers will be assigned and people will get approvals in Oct.

Once USCIS runs out with the pre-assigned numbers and the initial quota of the FY22015, they will internally retrogress the dates. Just like they did last year.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec. I am not quite familiar with all these things!

But my question was - what is it that USCIS is doing (or not doing) currently that made you say that? Or is this just a general opinion.

I kind of share that opinion - just for the record. But just curious if something new happened.

Q,

Nothing new I think.

I don't think it would have involved rocket science to have systematically issued RFE to those that required them based on PD and expiry date. That does not appear to have happened. Instead, RFE have been issued with seemingly indiscriminate dates. Some people have been approved before the previous I-693 expired, some may not receive them in time, while others are in danger of having to repeat medicals again next year.

Also, the time it is taking for RFE responses to reach the adjudicator to make a final decision on the case seem exceedingly long.

[Spectator]

Jagan01,

It's not a view I share.

[Aurora]

"Certainly some December 2003 EB3-I applicants have reported receiving RFE for an updated I-693 - a date that is unattainable within the original EB3-I allocation. EB2-C (maybe) and EB3-C/M/ROW would also be in a position to mop up any spare visas"

Spec,

Is it not mandatory rule/law that SO should be used for EB2I first before assigning visas to EB2C(cos PD is > EB2I), EB3I, EB3C or other countries/categories. I didn't get your statement "benefit from spare visas if he believes insufficient demand from EB2-I can be generated before year end. " how can EB2I be in less demand when there are clear numbers in DD/Inventory just released. Adjudication is same for all categories/countries and IMO I693 issue is valid for all countries/categories right?

Thanks!

[MATT2012]

Matt,

Probably not. I assume you mean EB2-I wastage.

I can't get any sort of handle on the number of RFE that have been sent out to date, which makes the reply difficult.

What's your view?

Yes, EB2I,
I am very much disappointed with the level of approvals, especially from TSC where roughly 55% or more cases traditionally represent. With the level of approvals, they may not even finish the cases that are current in July. From the trackitt data you maintain here, there are roughly 170 EB2I approvals this month. That is roughly 1850-2250 approvals, depending on the conversion ratio. Last fiscal, USCIS would have approved around 14.5 K EB 2 I cases between August and September. Between the movements in July and August, there are roughly 13 k cases + new interfile cases.( May be around 15.5 K cases total). Unless TSC gears up significantly, I do not see them completing many cases. With the chances of further movement in September and if it adds another 6.5k, the total will be around 22k. With 2k or so already greened, around 16k cases needs to be completed between August and September( I took 4k carried forward). I certainly don't see approvals picking up that fast, unless cases are already in the very final stage of visa allocation. The pace required to complete that many cases is certainly achievable but that pace should be much faster than what we noticed last year..

From the inventory, EB2ROW cases are increasing, my hope is,if EB2 I approvals are getting delayed, due to the new medical policy, they have a buffer build in EB2 ROW, and visa wastage can be avoided. That way the risk is spread between this year and early next year..

Note: 6.5 k number is just an assumption, please don't question me..it can be higher or lower..

[Jagan01]

Jagan01,

It's not a view I share.

Spec,

I understand. I was myself not a believer of the opinion that visa numbers can be assigned from one FY and then approvals being sent out in Oct of next FY. However, the I485 pending inventory showed evidence enough to convince me to embrace that view.

There was a huge decrease in the pending inventory between Oct and Apr pending inventories. The decrease is not evident from Eb2 numbers but it is seen in EB3I numbers. Many ported and hence EB2I did not see that huge decrease. It was kind of (X(original pending in Eb2I) + Y(Porting from EB3I to EB2i) - Y(Approvals in EB2I) = X)

This decrease in EB3I was almost 3400 and that in Eb2I was 1400. Total approvals in EB2i would have been approximately 4800 in this FY. I am sure that CO did not use SO that early and some of the 4800 did come from previous FY.

[qesehmk]

Just to keep things in perspective - 10 years back USCIS would literally waste tends of thousands of visas.

I can say with 100% confidence that that's not going to happen again - at least not this year.

But will USCIS waste 500 / 1000/ 1500 visas in a category. Nobody can rule that out.

As per October Approvals - yes indeed I believe that some of the approvals spill into October. But not November. That goes too far.

The reason is simple. DoS can issue a visa as late as 30th Sep. But then USCIS still needs to process the case. Print the card, send an email and whatnot. So post decision activity. So USCIS can still be working on a case in October that technically got visa from prior year quota.

It's really as simple logic as that.

Forgive my ignorance. I fail to understand this talk about visa wastage.

I feel last year USCIS did assign the visa numbers and later approved the cases in Oct and November. This scenario was put up by Q and I do believe that it happened. If USCIS can assign visa numbers and then give the actual visas in Oct/Nov then the same would happen this year. I do not see a possibility of visa wastage. Lets consider the rate of approvals is lower in Aug as well. The RFEs would surely be processed by Sep and visa numbers will be assigned and people will get approvals in Oct.

Once USCIS runs out with the pre-assigned numbers and the initial quota of the FY22015, they will internally retrogress the dates. Just like they did last year.

[Spectator]

"Certainly some December 2003 EB3-I applicants have reported receiving RFE for an updated I-693 - a date that is unattainable within the original EB3-I allocation. EB2-C (maybe) and EB3-C/M/ROW would also be in a position to mop up any spare visas"

Spec,

Is it not mandatory rule/law that SO should be used for EB2I first before assigning visas to EB2C(cos PD is > EB2I), EB3I, EB3C or other countries/categories. I didn't get your statement "benefit from spare visas if he believes insufficient demand from EB2-I can be generated before year end. " how can EB2I be in less demand when there are clear numbers in DD/Inventory just released. Adjudication is same for all categories/countries and IMO I693 issue is valid for all countries/categories right?

Thanks!

Only while there is sufficient demand. Demand is the operative word here.

Last year, there were plenty of EB3-ROW applicants, but USCIS could not process sufficient of them to completion within the time scale. As a result, EB3-I benefited from significant FA within EB3. CO moved the EB3-I COD forward in anticipation of that event. Nobody seemed to mind about that.

If USCIS are unable to process sufficient EB2-I cases to completion (and hence the Demand that DOS "sees"), then the spillover rules allow other Countries/Categories to use the visa numbers (FA first, followed by FD).

The USCIS Inventory is not Demand. That only occurs (for AOS cases) when USCIS actually approve the case and request/use the visa number from DOS.

CO can use estimates of use (as he did in FY2013) when setting the COD for the September VB, so there is nothing illegal in making contingency plans if he feels they are warranted.

If the visa numbers are not used by EB, they will fall to FB next year. Due to the nature of the FB calculation, FB will not receive any extra visas as a result of that. Hence, in the most extreme case, it is preferable for other EB cases to use the visas. For that to happen, the COD has to be sufficiently advanced to make those Countries/Categories cases "current" in the VB. If a case is current in the VB, then it can be approved when adjudicated. That's why a said it would be a total crap shoot and hence a very unsatisfactory solution.

As I tried to make clear, I think the scenario has a very low probability, although it remains an option.

[Aurora]

Yes, EB2I,
"USCIS would have approved around 14.5 K EB 2 I cases between August and September."

"around 16k cases needs to be completed between August and September( I took 4k carried forward)"

Matt,

Answer is in your explanation. Last year they processed 14.5K in Aug and Sep. This year they have around 16K (1.5K more) for same period. Why do you think they cannot do it this year when they did last year. True that TSC is slow, who knows NSC would have consumed all visa's released by CO for July.

Regards!

[MATT2012]

Yes, EB2I,
"USCIS would have approved around 14.5 K EB 2 I cases between August and September."

"around 16k cases needs to be completed between August and September( I took 4k carried forward)"

Matt,

Answer is in your explanation. Last year they processed 14.5K in Aug and Sep. This year they have around 16K (1.5K more) for same period. Why do you think they cannot do it this year when they did last year. True that TSC is slow, who knows NSC would have consumed all visa's released by CO for July.

Regards!

The current pace of approvals will only complete between 6k and 7k. I am also hoping, they are currently running a marathon and starting next week they will run 100m. i know I had the answer within my answer. Was just throwing some thoughts, so would atleast learn a little more...

[cursedguy]

Somehow, I think the Immigration crisis or DACA approvals are slowing down the approvals from TSC. Another user who contacted TSC through senator was told that a TSC staff (some of them ) was at an offsite training facility for the past two weeks until 7/28. It will be a miracle for CO to complete this year without major screw ups.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Just came across this news article about a week ago. Talks about a single case but the bigger point is that there is a significant potential for fraud and abuse in EB5 category which USCIS may be overlooking.

Very interesting read. Please move it to the other forum if not appropriate.

http://fortune.com/2014/07/24/immigr...visa-for-sale/

[qesehmk]

Just came across this news article about a week ago. Talks about a single case but the bigger point is that there is a significant potential for fraud and abuse in EB5 category which USCIS may be overlooking.

Very interesting read. Please move it to the other forum if not appropriate.

http://fortune.com/2014/07/24/immigr...visa-for-sale/

I think this story is quite unfair to EB5 program which fundamentally is a good program and a very stringent one for that matter.

The fraud was outside the program in the way this company cheated potential investors.

The author did a poor or a malacious job of using the story about victims of a fraud into a story that makes it sound like something is wrong with EB5 program.

p.s. - But the fraud story is just a wow!! Few months back a 'Gentleman' advised me to start bringing people from India to US to give birth to "anchor babies". I totally declined and told him flat that that may be illegal. Whether illegal or not - I am not going to do that.

[Spectator]

OFLC have updated the Data with FY2014 Q3 Figures.

PERM, H-2A, H-2B, LCA and Prevailing Wage Data is available.

I will update the PERM section of FACTS & DATA with the official data (it already includes the unofficial DOL LCR data for Q3) as I have time to do so.

UPDATE :- The figures have now been updated.