EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[tatikonda]

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y-July2014.pdf

Inventory data is a floating data, so there can't me much read thru this data.
except that, we know for certain that there are Approx 5708 new cases are added in EB1, 2769 new cases in EB2 plus any new cases which were already approved in EB from April to July to the overall EB category.. which is approx 8477 plus already approved in last 3 months..

[meragc]

This has nothing to do with priority dates moving for this FY. CO will look at the approvals (which are slow IMO) and look at the total spillover (which he will know accurately) and move the dates in the Sept VB accordingly. As I mentioned in my previous post, no first time I485 submitted now will be approved in this FY.

hi Vizcard,
my status is as follows

| EB2-I | PD: 02/11/09 | Waiting for date to be current to file I-485.

as per you, no first time i-485 will be approved this year, what time lines should i be looking at in terms of getting EAD, AP and GC?

[PD2008AUG25]

You are just a ray of sunshine, aren't you?

I don't really see much of a risk where too many 2009 people will get approved before 2008 ppl

I know I am being impatient. But things aren’t looking too good for TSC. There is no precedent with TSC in last four year where they issued no/few GCs when dates were moved forward and they had approvable applications. I am not sure why everyone assumes TSC will just flip the switch one day and will start approving. It has never happened in the past.

Based on Trackitt data. (2012 is an odd year because demand went down to zero.)

Movement of PD * Bulletin * TSC Approvals

7 months 2010 July 176
5 months 2010 August 177
2.25 months 2010 September 123

1.75 months 2011 May 64
3.5 months 2011 June 118
4.75 months 2011 July 198
1.25 months 2011 August 81

3 months 2011 October 55
3.5 months 2011 November 29
4.5 months 2011 December 35

9.5 months 2012 January 76
12 months 2012 February 264
4 months 2012 March 308
0 Months 2012 April 4

40 months 2013 August 341
5.5 months 2013 September 440
0 months 2013 October 254
0 months 2013 November 138

45.5 months 2014 July 54

If dates are moved aggressively in September bulletin, it would be evidence that CO fears wastage by TSC and there won’t be any respite for TSC filers.

[vizcard]

If dates are moved aggressively in September bulletin, it would be evidence that CO fears wastage by TSC and there won’t be any respite for TSC filers.

I agree with the bolded part... Not the rest.....atleast not yet.

[PD2008AUG25]

I agree with the bolded part... Not the rest.....atleast not yet.

I think picture should be more clear first 2 weeks of August. Four months of movement in 2013 produced almost 1200 trackitt approvals from TSC. If dates don't retrogress before December, TSC has to produce 250-300 approvals a month in remaining four months. We should see daily 7-10 approvals daily in August, that will be enough to shut me up.

[qbloguser]

This is a very good news for 2009-ers.

Interesting information from the tracker: waitin4GcGuy has PD 01/14/2009, approved on 07/23/2014.
this is creating more chaos.

[imdeng]

Don't know how much credence to give to this report. There is no source. The claim is that more than 500 EB2C applicants have *downgraded* to EB3C. Click Here

EB3C PD > EB2C PD for at least near future - so it does make sense from a pure PD point of view.

Update> I misread. There is a source. Apparently it was from the May meeting of lawyers with CO.

[vizcard]

Interesting information from the tracker: waitin4GcGuy has PD 01/14/2009, approved on 07/23/2014.
this is creating more chaos.

This is a very good news for 2009-ers.

Must be an error on someone's part since 2009 PDs are not current. Either he entered 2009 instead of 2008 or USCIS goofed up. Either way, good for him/her.

[vizcard]

Don't know how much credence to give to this report. There is no source. The claim is that more than 500 EB2C applicants have *downgraded* to EB3C. Click Here

EB3C PD > EB2C PD for at least near future - so it does make sense from a pure PD point of view.

Update> I misread. There is a source. Apparently it was from the May meeting of lawyers with CO.

Doesn't impact EB2I in the short term but it will help EB2C get closer to being "C"

[imdeng]

That's my feeling too. Trackitt has enough wrong/incomplete information floating around. Getting GC while not being current is kinda not even borderline - unless we have other reports of something similar happening - I would chalk it up to just unconfirmed rumor.

Must be an error on someone's part since 2009 PDs are not current. Either he entered 2009 instead of 2008 or USCIS goofed up. Either way, good for him/her.

[imdeng]

USCIS is dealing with 600K+ DACA renewals these days. DACAs will start expiring starting in Sept and renewals can be applied in a 120 day window before expiration. Wonder if that is what is slowing EB approvals, especially TSC. DACA renewals include an EAD - so they have to meet a 90 day timeline for it too.

BTW: $465 fee per renewal X 600K renewals = $279 Million revenue for USCIS. Guess they can afford to hire more staff and speed up processing, if they want/need to.

[Spectator]

krishn,

If you ignore the increase in 2012 and add an amount for CP cases, then the reduction would be a little over 4k for the period. That's a pretty good agreement to the figures I have calculated for the period.

By my reckoning, EB3-ROW has already reached somewhere in the expected maximum range for FY2014. Any further visas would now depend on EB3-P not being able to reach their overall 7% figure.

It seems more likely that the dates will not move again until October, when the FY2015 allocation becomes available.

I don't believe EB3-ROW had 9k available for Q4, due to very heavy approvals in Q1 & Q2 in particular.

Trackitt Approvals

Q1 - 94
Q2 - 136
Q3 - 45
Q4 - 1 (to date)

[vizcard]

USCIS is dealing with 600K+ DACA renewals these days. DACAs will start expiring starting in Sept and renewals can be applied in a 120 day window before expiration. Wonder if that is what is slowing EB approvals, especially TSC. DACA renewals include an EAD - so they have to meet a 90 day timeline for it too.

BTW: $465 fee per renewal X 600K renewals = $279 Million revenue for USCIS. Guess they can afford to hire more staff and speed up processing, if they want/need to.

$279M from renewals?! Damn...No wonder they say immigrants contribute to the economy!

[imdeng]

Here is another back of the envelope calculation. Mandatory grain of salt required - lots of assumptions and rough calculations.

1. PERM for ROW/M/P/C (henceforth EEI: Everybody Except India) is averaging ~23K per year in last few years. Rough figure - don't fight it - just accept it - we can do sensitivity to this later.
2. 23K PERM means a demand of 23 * 2.2 Visas per PERM * 1.2 Factor for NIW = ~61K
3. EB-2/3 has allocation of 80K - so we get total allocation of 19K to EB-2/3-I. This is only horizontal spillover in a steady state when EB-2/3-EEI is Current. Right now much of this spillover will not happen since EB-3EEI is far from being Current.
3. Assume 70% to EB2, 30% to EB3. EB2EEI demand ~43K, EB3EEI demand ~18K
4. So in a steady state scenario (when both EB2EEI and EB3EEI are Current), EB2I will get no horizontal spillover - just 3K normal allocation. EB2EEI will get backlogged by 6K (40 - 3 - 43) per year, EB3I will get 19K (40 - 3 - 18) horizontal spillover for total 22K allocation.

Hmm... so in couple of years when we actually reach the steady state above, assuming no FB spillover and no vertical spillover from EB-1/4/5, EB2I is going to get shafted big time while EB3I backlog will clear rapidly. It is also possible that EB3 will become current all around and provide vertical spillover (to EB1 and then hopefully going down to EB2).

Have I made any mistakes above? The conclusion portends a way too horrible future for EB2I! Of course when the above starts happening, EB applicants will start applying into EB-3 rather than EB-2, so the 70:30 ratio will change.

Even if we do a neutral case of 50:50, We will have EB-2/3-EEI demand as 30.5K each, giving EB-2/3-I total allocation of 9.5K each for a total of 19K. Considering EB-I PERM numbers are now in 30K+ range - we can get a sense of the whacking that lies ahead.

[Aurora]

That's my feeling too. Trackitt has enough wrong/incomplete information floating around. Getting GC while not being current is kinda not even borderline - unless we have other reports of something similar happening - I would chalk it up to just unconfirmed rumor.

Guru's,

There are 222 EB2I approvals as per Trackitt approvals sheet meaning in real 2886 (approx). Does this mean, till now USCIS got FY 2014-15 quota visa numbers and not SO visa numbers yet from CO. May be CO is waiting to see what are the real numbers from other categories, how many available and then allot visa numbers step by step or move COD if needed as per SO and provide visa numbers accordingly?

Just a thought. What do you think?

Note: We have not seen many approvals this week.

Regards!

[imdeng]

General opinion is that the regular quota was already blown away in Oct/Nov. We are definitely consuming spillover at this point.

There are 222 EB2I approvals as per Trackitt approvals sheet meaning in real 2886 (approx). Does this mean, till now USCIS got FY 2014-15 quota visa numbers and not SO visa numbers yet from CO. May be CO is waiting to see what are the real numbers from other categories, how many available and then move COD as per SO and provide visa numbers accordingly?

[Jagan01]

Hi,

I needed to know what should be filled under the I94 number section on the I485. My last entry into US was in 2011 and that I94 expired in 2011 itself. Since then I have had new H1 approval (in 2012) and the I797 receipt has a new I94. Should I be using the I94 number on the latest I797 approval OR should I be using the I94 number that was stamped in my passport in 2011 during my last entry.

Please move this to appropriate topic after I get a few replies.

[bieber]

Hi,

I needed to know what should be filled under the I94 number section on the I485. My last entry into US was in 2011 and that I94 expired in 2011 itself. Since then I have had new H1 approval (in 2012) and the I797 receipt has a new I94. Should I be using the I94 number on the latest I797 approval OR should I be using the I94 number that was stamped in my passport in 2011 during my last entry.

Please move this to appropriate topic after I get a few replies.

Jagan

Your I94 on new H1 should match the old I94 number from the travel. Only the expiration date keeps changing with I94

[Aurora]

General opinion is that the regular quota was already blown away in Oct/Nov. We are definitely consuming spillover at this point.

My bad, I meant they would have got FY 2015 numbers (in advance). Instead of using them in Oct/Nov, CO might have used now. Might get clear picture of SO in coming months then allocate accordingly. End of the day we all expect not to waste any visa's .......

[Spectator]

My bad, I meant they would have got FY 2015 numbers (in advance). Instead of using them in Oct/Nov, CO might have used now. Might get clear picture of SO in coming months then allocate accordingly. End of the day we all expect not to waste any visa's .......

The law does not allow that.

FY2015 numbers can only be used from October 1, 2014.

[Kanmani]

Oct 1 2014 Spec

[bluelabel]

Here is another back of the envelope calculation. Mandatory grain of salt required - lots of assumptions and rough calculations.

1. PERM for ROW/M/P/C (henceforth EEI: Everybody Except India) is averaging ~23K per year in last few years. Rough figure - don't fight it - just accept it - we can do sensitivity to this later.
2. 23K PERM means a demand of 23 * 2.2 Visas per PERM * 1.2 Factor for NIW = ~61K
3. EB-2/3 has allocation of 80K - so we get total allocation of 19K to EB-2/3-I. This is only horizontal spillover in a steady state when EB-2/3-EEI is Current. Right now much of this spillover will not happen since EB-3EEI is far from being Current.
3. Assume 70% to EB2, 30% to EB3. EB2EEI demand ~43K, EB3EEI demand ~18K
4. So in a steady state scenario (when both EB2EEI and EB3EEI are Current), EB2I will get no horizontal spillover - just 3K normal allocation. EB2EEI will get backlogged by 6K (40 - 3 - 43) per year, EB3I will get 19K (40 - 3 - 18) horizontal spillover for total 22K allocation.

Hmm... so in couple of years when we actually reach the steady state above, assuming no FB spillover and no vertical spillover from EB-1/4/5, EB2I is going to get shafted big time while EB3I backlog will clear rapidly. It is also possible that EB3 will become current all around and provide vertical spillover (to EB1 and then hopefully going down to EB2).

Have I made any mistakes above? The conclusion portends a way too horrible future for EB2I! Of course when the above starts happening, EB applicants will start applying into EB-3 rather than EB-2, so the 70:30 ratio will change.

Even if we do a neutral case of 50:50, We will have EB-2/3-EEI demand as 30.5K each, giving EB-2/3-I total allocation of 9.5K each for a total of 19K. Considering EB-I PERM numbers are now in 30K+ range - we can get a sense of the whacking that lies ahead.

Since EB2C is not current, they would not consume any spillovers. Out of 23K PERMs if 5K belongs China, and 70% of them are Eb2, it would turn out to be 9240 visas. So potential spillover is 6440 to India. EB2C is may not become current in next 2-3 years.

[Jagan01]

Jagan

Your I94 on new H1 should match the old I94 number from the travel. Only the expiration date keeps changing with I94

Thanks for the reply but they do not match. My i797 renewal was done prior to my short India trip. Hence the two numbers don't match. The subsequent h1 after I changed jobs was based on the i797 approval and hence the new h1 has the amen umber as previous i797 approval.

[Spectator]

It is also possible that EB3 will become current all around and provide vertical spillover (to EB1 and then hopefully going down to EB2).

imdeng,

There is no provision in law for under use of EB3 visas to be used by other EB Categories (although it hasn't stopped CO from doing so in recent years).

Under the law, visas wasted in EB3 should result in under use of the overall EB allocation and would fall to the FB calculation in the next FY.

[Kanmani]

Thanks for the reply but they do not match. My i797 renewal was done prior to my short India trip. Hence the two numbers don't match. The subsequent h1 after I changed jobs was based on the i797 approval and hence the new h1 has the amen umber as previous i797 approval.

Jagan,

In general they do match. Getting a new I-94 number do not hurt the process anyway. Use the latest one.