EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Spectator]

Spec,

Sorry...I didn't meant to misrepresent FY2013 to be specifically a normal year. I just wanted to make a point that next year USCIS will have to assign extra workload to existing officers OR employ additional resources to clear the excess backlog of I-140 applications piled this year along with the next year's new applications.

vedu,

OK, I understand now.

I'm not convinced USCIS will start reducing the backlog in any serious manner any time soon.

Just returning to a normal level where it doesn't increase will be another factor to increase I-485 approvals beyond the levels seen in FY2014.

The point I was trying to make is that there are a number of different factors that cumulatively could adversely affect the numbers available next FY.

It remains to be seen which ones come to pass.

[vedu]

I can't deny your statement below. But then there is also a possibility that by the end of FY2015, even with less than the normal spillover, EB2I dates will come close to April 2010, and therefore starting October 2015, DOS will have to open the floodgates again to generate the new demand for FY2016...sort of repeat of the 2012 year.

vedu,

The point I was trying to make is that there are a number of different factors that cumulatively could adversely affect the numbers available next FY.

[vizcard]

Viz,

I'm not worried about new 485 filings..
As of 31-May-2014 there are arounf 26k pending 140 applications.. we don't know how many of these belongs to EB1 & EB2-Row with concurrent filings. If these happens to be major chunk of those pending files and if those 140s get approvals then that will have impact on the COD movement for EB2-I in Sep & Oct 14.

I don't get it. YT says lower 140 approval (?) could mean more spillover for EB2I and you are saying this has got nothing to do with dates moving. How does more spillover have got nothing to do with dates moving this year?

YT,
While filing may be done concurrently, the processing of the 485 only starts after the 140 is approved. So for all intents and purposes they are "new" filings.

4WatItsWorth,
YTs statement does not impact spillover for 2014. It will impact spillover for next year.

[YTeleven]

Latest update on FY14Q3 PERM:
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...Y2014_Q3TD.pdf

FY14Q3 has become 15% bigger than FY13Q3. Looks like FY14 turns out to be another big year same as FY13 in terms of PERM reciepts.

More pain for EB2-I on the long run specifically for 2013 & 2014 applicants.

[Spectator]

Latest update on FY14Q3 PERM:
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...Y2014_Q3TD.pdf

FY14Q3 has become 15% bigger than FY13Q3. Looks like FY14 turns out to be another big year same as FY13 in terms of PERM reciepts.

More pain for EB2-I on the long run specifically for 2013 & 2014 applicants.

YT,

Thanks for the update.

I see that there is a slight change in the format this time. It now shows the % change on the same Qtr from the previous Year. Previously, it was showing the % change on the Year to Date.

Indeed, Q3 FY2014 is 15% higher than Q3 FY2013.

Because Q2 FY2014 was 21% lower than Q2 FY2013, the overall YTD change is 1.6% lower than FY2013.

I also note that the number of pending applications reduced only 3.1k from Q2 to Q3 (5.3%) and still stands at 55.4k.

[iatiam]

YT,

Thanks for the update.

I see that there is a slight change in the format this time. It now shows the % change on the same Qtr from the previous Year. Previously, it was showing the % change on the Year to Date.

Indeed, Q3 FY2014 is 15% higher than Q3 FY2013.

Because Q2 FY2014 was 21% lower than Q2 FY2013, the overall YTD change is 1.6% lower than FY2013.

I also note that the number of pending applications reduced only 3.1k from Q2 to Q3 (5.3%) and still stands at 55.4k.

Spec,

So the 64$ question is, how bad the spillover be next year? 6k? or 10k? or could it be zero? I know its too early to take a guess, but from your experience, how does the mounting inventory translate to reduction of SO? Also, what do you think will be a good SO number to prompt CO to open the floodgates again?

Iatiam

[gten20]

Yeah.. when is the next inventory build up expected? With no CIR or no word on EAD for H4. I am starting to lose patience. I can't begin to imagine how frustrating it must be for EB3I.

[Spectator]

Spec,

So the 64$ question is, how bad the spillover be next year? 6k? or 10k? or could it be zero? I know its too early to take a guess, but from your experience, how does the mounting inventory translate to reduction of SO? Also, what do you think will be a good SO number to prompt CO to open the floodgates again?

Iatiam

iatiam,

I don't want to speculate just yet. I need some more data points.

[AC_1980]

Note to the moderator, please move the post to where appropriate. Just wanted to make everyone aware of this:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5615465.html

in case if anyone is planning a trip. My wife is stuck in Vancouver for 4 days now, went for H1B stamping, still have not gotten back passport.

[YTeleven]

Note to the moderator, please move the post to where appropriate. Just wanted to make everyone aware of this:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5615465.html

in case if anyone is planning a trip. My wife is stuck in Vancouver for 4 days now, went for H1B stamping, still have not gotten back passport.

This is affecting both immigrant and non-immigrant visa systems world wide.

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/immigrant_visas.html

[qesehmk]

Note to the moderator, please move the post to where appropriate. Just wanted to make everyone aware of this:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5615465.html

in case if anyone is planning a trip. My wife is stuck in Vancouver for 4 days now, went for H1B stamping, still have not gotten back passport.

Thanks a ton AC_1980. I think people planning travel abroad to obtain Visa must pay attention to this and make decisions accordingly.

Since the glitch is of global nature - I bet it is also going to affect green card issuance. If it doesn't get resolved (highly unlikely) then it will result in wasted visas. However, if it does get resolved soon, then believe it or not - it will benefit backlogged countries because then all those un-issued permanent visas during glitch might be used for spillover. Just a perspective here - no calculations!

[fedupwithgc]

What do you guys think about TSC being very slow this year compared to NSC. There are only handful of approvals from them in Trackitt.... Very Frustrating.

[RMS_V13]

I remember reading on trackitt a couple of days back that someone was told that a bunch of TSC adjudicators were off site for some training. They are supposed to be back on Monday and within a week, we are supposed to see more approvals from the TSC. The original post sounded somewhat credible and I am inclined to believe it.

There is definitely something going on at TSC. We just need to wait. I think August and September will be the months when majority of approvals will happen.

congressional liaisons are on training, not adjudicators

[YTeleven]

EB based I-485 Application Completions last year.
---------------------------------------------
Month~~TSC~~~~~NSC~~~~~Total Completions
---------------------------------------------
Aug13~~11116~~~14609~~~25725
Sep13~~12018~~~13367~~~25385
Oct13~~11183~~~12817~~~24000
----------------------------------------------

If you see the last year processing data, you will notice that they have worked from Aug'13 thru Oct'13 to process year end applications and they mentioned the following in the Nov'13 DD dated 07-Oct-2013:

The FY 2013 Employment annual limits were reached prior to the end of September, and no further allocation
of numbers was possible after that time. Offices continued to process Employment cases, submitted them in
the normal manner, and such cases were then held in the Visa Office’s “Pending Demand” file. All eligible
cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits.

I've a strong feeling that they will follow the same trend this year too and continue process thru oct'14 by holding extra cases in pending demand file and allocating the visas later in Oct'14 from FY15 quota.
This way they can make sure not to waste a single visa from FY14 quota.

[PD2008AUG25]

What do you guys think about TSC being very slow this year compared to NSC. There are only handful of approvals from them in Trackitt.... Very Frustrating.

There are theories galore! AOs are abducted by aliens!

I think simple fact is TSC is slow, inefficient and swamped with work. As per published data, they take 7+ months for processing I-485s compared to 4 by other Service Centers. Applicants of other categories like K1 are also bemoaning excessive delays at TSC. I believe this trickle business will go on until November and there are no floodgates to be opened here. As you can see trackitt for last year, plenty of applicants in similar situation did not get GCs even as their dates were current for 3-4 months. Heck, NSC is issuing GCs to people who replied RFE 2 weeks ago. Advancing dates aggressively in September will only make matter worse for us TSCers.

SR, InfoPass or Senator/Congressmen, nothing seems to help those who are stuck.

[RoosterC]

What determines whether a case should be filed at TSC or NSC? I am wondering why my lawyer choose to file at TSC?

[whatever]

RoosterC,
Jurisdictions listed here..
http://www.immihelp.com/directory/servicecenters.html

[Kanmani]

What determines whether a case should be filed at TSC or NSC? I am wondering why my lawyer choose to file at TSC?

If you are referring to I-485 filing then the place where you live determines the service center.

NSC :
Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Guam or the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

TSC:
Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, U.S. Virgin Islands, or West Virginia

Detailed here : http://www.uscis.gov/i-485-addresses

[RoosterC]

If you are referring to I-485 filing then the place where you live determines the service center.

NSC :
Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Guam or the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

TSC:
Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, U.S. Virgin Islands, or West Virginia

Detailed here : http://www.uscis.gov/i-485-addresses

Actually I am in California. So wondering why my form was filed to TSC?

[justvisiting]

YT,

Thanks for the update.

I see that there is a slight change in the format this time. It now shows the % change on the same Qtr from the previous Year. Previously, it was showing the % change on the Year to Date.

Indeed, Q3 FY2014 is 15% higher than Q3 FY2013.

Because Q2 FY2014 was 21% lower than Q2 FY2013, the overall YTD change is 1.6% lower than FY2013.

I also note that the number of pending applications reduced only 3.1k from Q2 to Q3 (5.3%) and still stands at 55.4k.

PERM seems to be slowly picking up pace. Currently a 5 month wait, compared to a 7 month wait at the beginning of the year. Not a massive improvement, but something worth considering when estimating EB2-ROW+m+p

[Kanmani]

Actually I am in California. So wondering why my form was filed to TSC?

I have no idea on how it could be TSC. May be somebody could help you to figure out why! Did you double check your RN, LIN/SRC?

Did you file Concurrently both I-140 and I-485 ?

[RoosterC]

I have no idea on how it could be TSC. May be somebody could help you to figure out why! Did you double check your RN, LIN/SRC?

Did you file Concurrently both I-140 and I-485 ?

No. I filed along with everybody else in 2012 with approved I-140, which was also filed in TSC. All my EAD/AP and I485 were all filed at TSC. I got RFE recently also from TSC.

[RMS_V13]

No. I filed along with everybody else in 2012 with approved I-140, which was also filed in TSC. All my EAD/AP and I485 were all filed at TSC. I got RFE recently also from TSC.

I am from IL, but was filed with TSC because employer is based out of TX.

L2 actually told me that it will take 3-6 months to process apps. I almost said 'dude u gotta be kidding me'

This is all so screwed up.

[PDAUG052010]

I have been a silent reader of this forum for years and this is my first post. Thanks to all the gurus for their in depth analysis and contribution.

I just want to bring everybody's attention that a 2010 Feb EB2I PD has received RFE for medicals and EVL. It looks very odd. Is this just a one off instance?

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...009-matt-gurus

See Post # 5.

[aquatican]

From most of predictions from the last bulletin ( release Jul 10)
it seems like Conservative is Mar 2009 and Wildly Optimistic is Nov 2009.

If we split the difference we get Jul 2009. In the next bulletin for September ( Upcoming Aug 10) I think there is a 50% chance we will get to this date with some + ve winds ( Slow approval speed, EB 2 ROW spillover)
and some -ve winds ( Extra #s for Chinese quote, Full utilization of EB5)