I'm starting to wonder whether it just shows how slow the process is once the RFE Response has been received by the SC to when it ever makes it back to an IO's desk and comes up for adjudication.Originally Posted by fedupwithgc
Maybe the new I-693 policy (and hence RFEs for most people) is the reason why the COD moved in July this FY.
I have no insight at all. It's frustrating for everybody.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Here is my take on it. Looking at the SOFAD, EB2-I could end up with 24k this year because of the slow rate of PERM processing for ROW. If that happens I think the dates will move in next bulletin to 1st July or latter and hold till October 31st and may retrogress
in Nov. CO may also decide to give EB2-I its share of 3000 visas in October so that, it is utilized early before retrogression. I think not all in this forum will agree as I am being a little optimistic, but even Spec & Sportsfan will agree 24k is not unreasonable.
I wish you good luck and hope your decision last year pays off this year.
NSC:EB2 India, Priority Date:05/27/09, ND:03/08/12, NRD:03/14/12
Well... if they decided to use up part if FY2016 allocation in Oct/Nov like last year - then who knows! Several thousand EB2Is were approved in Oct/Nov last year. We will need just about 1000-1200 for each month's movement in mid-to-late-2009. So even 5000 visas as like 4 month's movement - enough to go until 01NOV09 - so as to cover all the RFEs.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
What trends do you think can be extracted? Receipt numbers include all kinds of cases - cases on both sides of mine are mostly GC Renewals. Don't think much can be extracted from receipt numbers.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Its just middle of July. They have two and half months to finish the job. I am sure ALL no-problem 2008 cases will be done this FY. Folks who get current in next VB might get into a bit of a lottery depending upon how large the movement is for Sept. If the movement is just couple of months - then I think most will sail through. If the movement is like 6-8-10 months - then part of that group might get left behind.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
07/15/2014: India EB-2 Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Could Move Back as Early as in November 2014?
In the August 2014 Visa Bulletin, the State Department released their prediction for visa number movement for India EB-2 with a warning that it could move backward significantly in the next several months. According to the AILA, it could come as early as in November 2014. Usually, visa numbers do not retrogress in the first month (October) of a fiscal year, but tends to move backward later part of the first Quarter or first part of second Quarter. It is hoped that the number keeps moving forward for India EB-2 in September and Octobeer so that EB-2 Indian professionals get further relief before it faces another nightmare for a significant period of time. Result of November national election can bring some changes in the political environment, but the Washington gridlock is likely to continue through at least 2016 Presidential election and broken immigration system may have to endure the pains for a long time.
07/15/2014: India EB-2 Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Could Move Back as Early as in November 2014?
In the August 2014 Visa Bulletin, the State Department released their prediction for visa number movement for India EB-2 with a warning that it could move backward significantly in the next several months. According to the AILA, it could come as early as in November 2014. Usually, visa numbers do not retrogress in the first month (October) of a fiscal year, but tends to move backward later part of the first Quarter or first part of second Quarter. It is hoped that the number keeps moving forward for India EB-2 in September and Octobeer so that EB-2 Indian professionals get further relief before it faces another nightmare for a significant period of time. Result of November national election can bring some changes in the political environment, but the Washington gridlock is likely to continue through at least 2016 Presidential election and broken immigration system may have to endure the pains for a long time..
If this is true, then I think the dates will be moved to October 2009 in two steps to cover all the recently released RFEs. In the process, they will use this year's spill over, next year's EB2I quota, and any left overs from this year's family quota to clear as many cases as they can. Then come November, there will be no other option than to retrogress the dates significantly for the remainder of the year until next year's spillover will be available in the last quarter. What do you guys think?
I think it is boilerplate statement. I don't think much can be read in that statement. Although - I do agree with the possibility (likelihood?) that they can go to 01NOV09 in two steps to clear all the RFEs using some part of next year's numbers in Oct.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
TBH, the Oh statement is a lot of words saying absolutely nothing and adding nothing new.
The most likely scenario is that the Cut Off Dates set for September 2014 will be held in October 2014 to allow those cases that could not be approved within the FY2014 limits to be approved.
That would likely use the initial allocation for EB2-I in FY2015 if the September 2014 COD has been set correctly and cases are ready to be adjudicated by then after the RFE responses.
The chances for extra FB visas in FY2015 is much less and I don't think we will see the level seen in the last 2 years.
A movement to cover the RFEs issued to the end of October 2009, IMO risks using any SO that might be available to EB2-I in FY2015. I don't think CO will risk that as early as October 2014. Of course, he will have the benefit of pretty much knowing FB usage for FY2014 when he sets the October VB and at least a rough idea of the latitude he may have.
If CO wants to try and help applicants not have to redo medicals, he has the option to move the COD forward in July 2015. There is no need to clear those cases in October 2014. Ultimately, it was USCIS who decided to issue the RFE, when and to who, not DOS.
Currently, I would see the Cut Off Date in October being held at the September date, then retrogression in November until later in the FY, when a clearer picture on likely SO can be determined.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spectator, in that case, what is your best guess estimate for the PD to become current in Sep 2014. Do you think the early summer estimate (May 2009 ?) still holds true?
http://www.murthy.com/2014/07/15/dos...to-retrogress/
It appears to be based on this AILA document:DOS Predictions: FB2A to Move Forward, EB2 India to Retrogress
July 15, 2014
The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) has announced that it will now begin to issue a report each month intended to provide reliable predictions and analysis regarding the movement of cutoff dates in the visa bulletin. These reports will be based on discussions with Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State (DOS), following the release of each month's visa bulletin. The predictions made in this month's AILA report, and summarized here for MurthyDotCom readers, is in addition to the insights offered in the August 2014 Visa Bulletin.
Family Second Preference "A" (FB2A) Likely to Advance Soon
Chief Oppenheim predicts that the long-stagnant FB2A cutoff dates will move forward in September 2014. As of the August 2014 Visa Bulletin, the FB2A cutoff date stands at March 15, 2011 for Mexico, and May 1, 2012 for all other countries of chargeability. In the upcoming September 2014 Visa Bulletin, these dates could advance, "possibly as far as late fall 2012."
Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2) India to Retrogress
There is little question that EB2 India will see retrogression (i.e. backward movement of cutoff dates) in fiscal year 2015 (FY15). This retrogression could occur as early as November 2014, a month after the October 1st start of FY15.
The reason for this is a bit complicated. The cutoff dates in the visa bulletin are a product of visa number supply-and-demand, and setting these dates involves making estimations based on a number of variables. These variables include historical patterns, expected future demand, and case processing trends. The DOS notes that adjustment-of-status (I-485) applications submitted in July and August 2014 will not increase visa number demand in EB2 until sometime in early FY15. This is because the demand for visa numbers does not hit the DOS until the cases are processed by the USCIS and visa numbers are requested. This is why there can be a delay between a large influx of applications and retrogression within a category.
Employment-Based, Third Preference (EB3)
The DOS did not offer predictions for EB3. However, the report did review the unusual developments in the EB3 China category in the recent past. In mid-2013 through May 2014, the EB3 China cutoff date was more favorable than EB2 China. This generated requests to "downgrade' from many who would otherwise be in EB2. As a result, the demand for EB3 China visa numbers significantly increased each month in early calendar year 2014, leading the category to retrogress considerably; demand eventually dwindled, allowing the dates to again move forward in the August 2014 Visa Bulletin.
Employment-Based, Fifth Preference (EB5)
The DOS expects to have to establish a cutoff date in the EB5 category in FY15 for China. This may happen by June 2015. The exact timing depends upon a number of factors, including the pace of case processing by the USCIS.
Conclusion
The Murthy Law Firm appreciates the willingness of the DOS, and specifically Chief Oppenheim, to provide insights into the expectations for visa bulletin cutoff date movement. The movement of cutoff dates in the monthly bulletin can be mystifying and frustrating for many. The predictions and explanations offered by the DOS at least should help to provide some transparency to the process.
Copyright © 2014, MURTHY LAW FIRM. All Rights Reserved
which is restricted to AILA members.7/14/2014 Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim- July 2014
DOS Liaison Committee series of monthly “check-ins” with Charlie Oppenheim, designed to keep members informed of Visa Bulletin progress and to obtain his analysis of current trends and future projections, beyond the basic visa availability updates provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin.
AILA Doc. No. 14071401.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Folks - I would request posters to resist the temptation to ask questions like "when will X be current?" until you have looked through previous posts in this forum. When you do look through, you will find that in most cases, it has already been discussed. Of course, if you think that your situation has not been discussed yet or if the situation is urgent - please go ahead and post.
I do not wish to discourage anybody from posting. I just want folks to be mindful and do some research first.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
I just wonder why DOS didn't give any predictions for EB3, is that difficult or DOS doesn't have a clue about what demand is?
they should at least have a good picture until OCT12, some random reports i found talks about EB3P reach APR11 same as ROW
and then a movement in OCT bulletin of 1 year until APR12
but again not sure why DOS offered no predictions
@imdeng, I am not sure if this is related to my question but I would like to humbly state something. I have read every single post in this thread for the past few weeks and in some threads on trackitt. The problem is that a lot of posts use the immigration lingo like SO, COD etc. and lawyer type language which is difficult to understand for newbies like me. In the ensuing confusion and concern about being ready to file on the first day of month when date becomes current, these posts are posted to get some information in layman's terms. I apologize for any repetition caused in this.
Sagar - I was not talking about anybody specific. No need to apologize - if you looked through the forum and could not find the answer, then of course you should post. I understand that the process is stressful and I am happy to help with your questions and also any terminology that might be confusing.
Q - Perhaps we should create a glossary page?
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Thanks imdeng. We used to have one. I just copied it into a separate thread. CLICK HERE
All Gurus please feel free to change that single post instead of adding a new post to that thread.
If you need moderator rights to change posts then let me know.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Thanks Q. I am going to put a link to the Glossary in my signature.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Pardon the humor but i wanted to use all of the terms together.
Waiting for the COD gods to give us a a lot of SO and little FA and a sprinkle of FD for a a tasty punch of SOFAD.
The reason is simple, We want our PD's to get into love zone PD<CD because it sucks to be friended by PWMB which makes me so PWMB.
The CO is so stingy he only wants SFM , i tell him forget it man give us some BTM
He threatened me with UFM and the stick of BTM.
But if we send him some cookies he will move the COD and let us all R485 and get our SYA.
Most of us probably have memorized all of this by rote, thanks to the 6-year wait! Nice one, lightens the mood.
Thought I'd add...Most of us probably have memorized all of this by rote, thanks to the 6-year wait! Nice one, lightens the mood.
------------
Ultimately the aim is for all of us to get the magical email / text and get greened
------------
Although not really glossary-worthy terms, I had to get rid of some nervous energy.
EB2ROW approvals continue to be slow. Spec's trackitt data shows just 13 approvals - and we are 17 days out in July. If the pace continues to be slow - it will help EB2I date movements. CO will need to make up his mind for Sept VB in next 15-20 days. If EB2ROW consumption is low enough at that point then he might be forced to make a big jump in EB2I.
It doesn't matter too much if not everybody who is current gets a GC this FY. We have last year's precedence that CO is willing to burn a bit of next years allocation in Oct/Nov. So I am hoping for a big jump in Sept bulletin, clearing of only a part of that in Sep and then clearing rest (or good part of the rest) in Oct/Nov.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Agreed. Plus EB2I isn't going full force either.
i forget what the multiplier is between Trackitt and "reality" (6x?) but with 131 total EB2 approvals in half the month thats less than 800 approvals so far (assuming 6x). Ofcourse the pace is expected to pick up but even if it doubles we are looking at 2500 approvals for the month of July (total !). That's pretty underwhelming if you ask me.
Last two years, EB2I trackitt ratio has been ~13x. We are at 106 EB2I approvals in July so far - so thats ~1378 approvals. For this FY we have had 753 EB2I approvals - thats 9789 EB2I approvals so far. Yup - we have a long way to go - and it does seem underwhelming at the moment.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Let's hope this comes true! I see that your PD is in 08/2009, very close to mine (last week of July '09)...so of course we have a vested interest in this!
Looking at your signature, I don't see any EAD details - is that because you just didn't add them or because you missed the boat, like me, in 2012 when the dates jumped up to 2010 PDs? Just curious...
There are currently 4 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 4 guests)
Posting Permissions
