Wow .. one thing went unnoticed by me.
First time in last 9 years TOTAL IMMIGRATION DROPPED.
What a bummer. At a time when the population is aging and US needs workforce replacement, that time we see total immigration dropping.
Originally Posted by Spectator
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I got RFE on 06/05/2014 but so far I havent received the notice. I called USCIS and asked them to resend. My question now is, How many days will I get to respond to RFE? I hope the RFE is for medicals but not sure as of now.
Thanks in advance for your responses.
Gurus ,
I have a question about the visa bulletin predictions. Does the predictions include FY15 numbers that may be given out in October like last year?
I have turned down a couple of opportunities because of the immigration situation in the last few months.I was holding on to little hope that my PD (6/29/2009) may get current and I could file my I-485 this year at least.
i hope you are right sportsfan!With a PD of Jun 17 09. I hope i don't miss the boat this time. At least hoping to get an EAD.
Q - GC issuance has been remarkably stable in last 10 years. Very minor variations. DHS calls the group LPR - Lawful Permanent Residents - and in the last 10 years, there has been ~1 million LPRs every year - give or take a little bit. The small decline in 2013 has mainly been because of drop in the biggest category for LPR - Immediate Relatives of Citizens.
2004 - 957,883
2005 1,122,257
2006 1,266,129
2007 1,052,415
2008 1,107,126
2009 1,130,818
2010 1,042,625
2011 1,062,040
2012 1,031,631
2013 - 990,553
Update: I looked at Citizenship data - and that seems to be increasing modestly. 2011: 694K, 2012: 757K, 2013: 780K. Interestingly, folks from China are getting a lot of GCs, but much fewer citizenships.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Here's another 20 years of LPR numbers.
1984 --- 541,811 ----- 1994 --- 803,993
1985 --- 568,149 ----- 1995 --- 720,177
1986 --- 600,027 ----- 1996 --- 915,560
1987 --- 599,889 ----- 1997 --- 797,847
1988 --- 641,346 ----- 1998 --- 653,206
1989 - 1,090,172 ----- 1999 --- 644,787
1990 - 1,535,872 ----- 2000 --- 841,002
1991 - 1,826,595 ----- 2001 - 1,058,902
1992 --- 973,445 ----- 2002 - 1,059,356
1993 --- 903,916 ----- 2003 --- 703,542
I think some of the major shifts relate to Bills passed by Congress e.g. The Immigration Reform and Control Act, or IRCA, of 1986, The Immigration Act of 1990, The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act, or IIRAIRA, of 1996, The Legal Immigration Family Equity, or LIFE, Act and LIFE Act Amendments of 2000. I'm not sure there has been any Bills of significance since then that have passed into law.
In particular, The Immigration Act of 1990 (IMMACT90) was signed into law as P.L. 101-649 by President Bush on November 29, 1990. It constituted a major revision of the Immigration and Nationality Act, which remained the basic immigration law. Its primary focus was the numerical limits and preference system regulating permanent legal immigration. Besides legal immigration, the eight-title Act dealt with many other aspects of immigration law ranging from nonimmigrants to criminal aliens to naturalization. This Bill set the numerical limits that we know today. The Immigration Act of 1990 increased the total immigration limit to 700,000 and increased visas by 40 percent. Family reunification was retained as the main immigration criterion, with significant increases in employment-related immigration. The 1990 Act set the numbers and Categories for both FB and EB that remain to this day.(culled from various sources)
The figures by Year from 1820 to 2013 for LPR are in this excel file from DHS
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Unbelievably Quiet Today.
Yup. Calm before the storm. We are only a few days away from the BIG visa bulletin.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Question for Spec and other folks intimately familiar with trackitt data: Is the slowdown in approvals still continuing? Spec had mentioned that since USCIS seems to have shifted much of their manpower towards sending RFEs to EB2I, approvals had slowed down for other categories. This, of course, has possibility of positive impact on spillover to EB2I. Now that bulk of RFEs seem to have been issued, has the approvals pace picked up again?
Follow up question for thought - in previous years, did EB2-ROW and EB1 approvals slow down in July/Aug/Sept when USCIS needs to process a large number of EB2I cases? If that is yes - then combining with the existing slowdown for RFE, USCIS might not have much capacity to do too much more than take care of EB2I RFE and approvals. This would make USCIS enter FY2015 with larger inventory for EB1 and EB2ROW - and help SO in FY2014.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
News for progress of both EB2-China and EB3-China in coming months due to the possible availablility of spare visas from FB-China. This would be similar to South Korea each year. I don't know the original source, otherwise I would quote it. This came from http://www.mitbbs.com and was in English.
andAssociation (AILA) Annual Conference and have good news to share with our clients.
At the conference, officials from the Department of State Visa Office stated that they anticipate “significant movement” in the Visa Bulletin cut-off dates for the China employment-based second preference categories (EB-2) in the upcoming months. Visa Office representatives indicated two reasons for this optimistic outlook: 1) excessive levels of demand in EB-2 category have subsided, and 2) there are several hundred unused visas in the family-based preference categories. To ensure that all immigrant visa numbers available to China in this fiscal year are used, the Visa Office plans to rollover the unused visas allocated to the family-based preference categories and to make them available to the employment-based preference categories. This is a routine procedure that the Visa Office applies to ensure that visa numbers are not wasted before this current fiscal year ends in September.
We do caution that the above is only a prediction from the Visa Office. Experience has shown that numerous factors, such as unexpected surge in demand or faster I-485 processing by the USCIS, may arise that can affect anticipated movements in the Visa Bulletin. Our firm will continue to monitor the Visa Bulletin each month and will notify clients when their priority dates become current.
Edit:- This appears to be the source.
It makes sense that both EB2 and EB3 would benefit, since the "spare" visas should be prorated to the various EB Categories.United States State Department Projects Advancement for EB-3 China
June 24, 2014
Executive Summary
State Department officials project that EB-3 China could advance significantly in the remaining months of the fiscal year, although exact cut -off dates will remain unknown until the next State Department Visa Bulletin is published in early July.
The priority date cut-off for EB-3 China could advance significantly in August 2014, in contrast to earlier projections which suggested that the category would remain static and possibly retrogress during the remainder of fiscal year 2014. The State Department anticipates that unused family-based immigrant visa numbers could be available to be applied to the EB-3 China backlog. Due to unpredictable fluctuations in allocation of immigrant visa numbers, however, the exact cut-off date will not be known until the August Visa Bulletin is published in early July.
The projections were presented during the annual American Immigration Lawyers Association conference late last week.
Edit:- The source of this quote appears to be Fragomen.
I don't believe the news has any impact on the movement for EB3-I. Extra numbers available to China will, however, reduce the allocation available to EB3-ROW, since it does not increase the actual numbers available to EB3. Similarly, it could possibly reduce the numbers available to EB2-I. It does not sound like we are talking about more than a few hundred across both Categories, so the result will be negligible.
PS Theoretically, CO might be able to do something similar with India. I confess i don't know how that might work, when India will exceed 7% use anyway with high EB1 use and spillover. It may be the reason that EB2-I received somewhat more approvals last year than spillover alone would have allowed. I admit to being a little confused, since the predicted movement for EB3-I is very poor and theoretically, they would also benefit. Possibly Indian FB approvals have increased this FY.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
According to Trackitt, this months approvals are about 40% lower than the corresponding time last month. That is probably slightly exaggerated by the almost total absence of any EB3-WW approvals.
In general, the real slowdown in approvals is in September, but that might also be as a result of September being a "short" month due to visas for the FY running out. September is generally something like a 2 week month. You can look at some of the monthly Trackitt monthly totals for various Categories / Countries in this thread.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Very interesting. Just the fact that China, which used to be such a large consumer of visa numbers, has fallen behind the 7% threshold, is significant news. AFAIU, This doesn't affect EB3I since they were not going to get any more than the usual quota anyways. However, this will take some precious numbers away from EB2I since EB2C will get more than the annual quota now. Essentially, this does not change overall EB allocation at all - just allows EB-C to exceed their annual quotas in both EB2 and EB3 categories so that FB+EB reaches 7%. Am having a hard time believing that China is running below 7% EB+FB level - will have to look up the numbers.
About such a scenario for India, I don't think India will be below 7% (EB+FB) anytime soon.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
imdeng,
The figures for China last year were:
------- Actual ---- 7%
EB ---- 20,078 -- 11,093
FB ---- 13,732 -- 15,820
Total - 33,810 -- 26,913
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
While this is a good news for EB2/3 C, this is somewhat a bad news for India and possibly for EB3ROW because the visas from FB are rolled over to EB only next year - not in the same year.
So basically EB2C is going to eat into the SOFAD that otherwise EB2I would get all and EB3C will do the same with EB3ROW numbers as far as current year is concerned.
Sorry folks for the bad news. I hope I am wrong.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q,
I believe you are correct, but the impact should be very low.
(1) will come from the EB2-C initial allocation.1) excessive levels of demand in EB-2 category have subsided, and
2) there are several hundred unused visas in the family-based preference categories.
(2) mentions a few hundred visas, which will be split across EB2 and EB3 at worst.
While every visa number may count, it isn't too earth shattering for EB2-I or EB3-ROW. In EB3, Philippines has a much larger effect, numbering thousands rather than hundreds.
My perspective anyway.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec - you don't have to be so much guarded!! We should speak our mind. I especially value your thoughts.
Yes I agree with you with a caution that last year the under usage in FB-C was 4K. So I hope "a few hundreds" is what we will see this year.
Funnily even FB-I has always been under utilizing their 7% limit (not quota!). Sometimes I feel that the way VO deals with all these quotas is discretionary at best and discriminatory at worst. The reality probably is somewhere in the middle.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
First column total should be 20,078+13,372 = 33,450 - right? Well above the FB+EB 7% threshold of 26,913. Have their demand come down enough to fall below 26,913? Perhaps it has fallen below by just a few hundreds - hence the disclaimer in the original communication.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
I believe the 7% rule plays out if the country is not backlogged individually (i.e. outside the ROW). Now that EB3C has matched EB3ROW, they can lay claim to extra visas from EB3ROW allocation just like Phillippines and South Korea. I am not sure how this works in EB2C.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
I am not aware of such a law. Situations where law doesn't say anything are left to DoS' discretion. And my judgement is that DoS uses discretion in a way that is not quite clear. e.g. they didn't use the same discretion last year when FB C under utilized the limit.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
imdeng,
Oops!
Thanks for pointing that out. I somehow managed to add the EB1-EB3 total to FB rather than all EB. I have corrected the original post.
EB5-C received 6,807 Fall Across and EB1C received 3,077 Fall Across, allowing them to exceed 7%.
EB2-C and EB3-C also received slightly over 7%, but EB as a whole also overshot the allocation by 2,803.
As reference, India received 48,294 visas (FB 12,996 and EB 35,298).
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Q,
I was not being guarded - I just don't see it as a big deal. It won't alter my estimates at all.
EB2-I did receive more visas last year than spillover alone allowed. That would have allowed only 13,263 (including the initial allocation). In fact, EB2-I received 17,193 visas, a difference of 3,930. FB-I was only 2,824 below the maximum allowed.
I think they did pretty well personally.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I was referring to "my perspective anyway" !
Lets hope it is not a big deal. But the fact it was worthwhile to mention (as opposed to thousands when s korea uses and nothing is mentioned) makes me feel it may not be as small as a few hundreds.
I didn't understand your calculation of 13.2 vs 17.2K for EB2I last year.
Are you referring to the fact that although the quota was 156K EB as a whole received 161K?
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q and imdeng,
I would refer you to this post in FACTS & DATA for CO's own explanation of the South Korea situation.
imdeng,
You are correct about EB3 - extra use by China would further reduce the EB3-ROW allocation, since there is no Fall Down to EB3, all 7% Countries use their entire allocation and the total available to EB3 as a whole is a fixed number.
For EB2, it is not quite the same situation.
Yes, extra use by EB2-C would theoretically eat into the EB2-ROW allocation of 28,828 within the overall initial allocation for EB2 of 40,040. If there were no Fall Down (or Fall Across from Mexico or Philippines), the situation would be the same as EB3.
However, since no Country within EB2-ROW remotely approaches 7% use, those Countries would have first call on any Fall Down or Fall Across if they still had demand. The numbers are only available to Countries such as EB2-C and EB2-I that have reached their 7% limit after demand from Countries yet to reach the 7% limit has been satisfied.
The net result of extra EB2-C use would be to reduce Spillover available to EB2-I.
e.g If EB2-ROW had demand for 28,828 and EB2-C could use 300 more visas. The EB2-ROW allocation would initially drop to 28,528 and they would be 300 short of demand if only 40,040 visas were available and C, I, M & P all used their maximum allocation and there was no Fall Down from EB1.
EB2-ROW could get the extra 300 visas either from Fall Across from EB2-M or EB2-P within EB2 OR from Fall Down from EB1. Either way, the Spillover available to EB2-I would be reduced by the 300 extra visas that EB2-C were able to use. Only if total spillover was less than 300 would EB2-ROW fail to satisfy their demand, but spillover to EB2-I would be zero in that case.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec hope you don't mind me asking for an explanation in light of the info you are pointing to; what's different this year for China compared to 2013 when 4K were unused that VO was compelled to issue a statement on the topic this year but not last?
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I'll spell it out in more detail.
Fall Down was composed of :
EB1 - 6,263
EB4 - 4,805
EB5 - 2,687
Total Fall Down - 13,755
Fall Across in EB2 was
EB2-M - 1,455 Gave Fall Across
EB2-P - (1,267) Still stayed within overall 7% EB and FB limit
EB2-ROW - (3,852) Required more approvals than initial allocation (due to previous FY retrogression)
Total Fall Across - (3,664)
i.e. EB2-WW used 3,664 of the 13,755 Fall Down.
Net Spillover available - 10,091
Theoretical maximum SOFAD for EB2-I equals 10,091 spillover plus 3,172 initial allocation = 13,263 total approvals.
Actual EB2-I approvals were 17,193.
EB2-I received 3,930 more approvals than spillover alone justified. Part of that would have been due to the over use of the total EB allocation.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
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