EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[YTeleven]

No one is sure about the how far the dates will move in Aug's & Sep's Bulletin, you may be able to file for AOS if they move past July 09 in Sep's bulletin.
I think everyone in this forum will be suprised if not shocked, if they move to Oct 09 in Sep's or Oct's bulletin, it all depends on the spill over.
But I think you have a fair chance to file for AOS this fall. Good luck.

To clear off all the pending 485's ( without giving any breathing time for porters and new filers) till 01-Oct-2009, EB2-I needs a total of 28.5K visas in FY14.
In otherwords it needs a 7k in Jul'14, 8K in Aug'14 & another 8K in Sep'14.
The corresponding CODs will be Sep'08 for Jul'14, Mar'09 for Aug'14 & Oct'09 for Sep'14.

Now the question is how will EB2-I get these many visas. It can only happen if something extremely goes wrong with EB1C & EB2-ROW processing this year.
If we know ground realities in those categories then its anybody's guess where will be the dates move.

[helooo]

Hello Everyone,
I got Birth Certificate from India.My father's surname is not written on my Certificate but it's on my Paassport.My mother's surname is written on Birth Certificate but not on Passport.Birth certificate issuing authority says they can't add or remove anything.Is it ok or no?
Thanks

[Kanmani]

Hello Everyone,
I got Birth Certificate from India.My father's surname is not written on my Certificate but it's on my Paassport.My mother's surname is written on Birth Certificate but not on Passport.Birth certificate issuing authority says they can't add or remove anything.Is it ok or no?
Thanks

Nearly 90% of us have Birth Certificate issues, so called non-compatibility with US immigration requirements. Each Indian state issues BC in different format which is not rejected in that particular state's education system, we have no requirement of BCs once Secondary School Leaving Certificate is issued. ( I guess this holds true for most of the Indian states). Our Head ache starts once we start our immigration process.

helooo,

Your Birth Certificate is ok . Get affidavits as secondary evidence from your parents/relatives and submit them along with your BC.

[4WatItsWorth]

To clear off all the pending 485's ( without giving any breathing time for porters and new filers) till 01-Oct-2009, EB2-I needs a total of 28.5K visas in FY14.
In otherwords it needs a 7k in Jul'14, 8K in Aug'14 & another 8K in Sep'14.
The corresponding CODs will be Sep'08 for Jul'14, Mar'09 for Aug'14 & Oct'09 for Sep'14.

Now the question is how will EB2-I get these many visas. It can only happen if something extremely goes wrong with EB1C & EB2-ROW processing this year.
If we know ground realities in those categories then its anybody's guess where will be the dates move.

Long time reader, first time poster... and a big fan of the forum!

Q, Spec, Yt...
Given Math YT provides above, what do you make of the RFEs all way to end of Oct 09? I had been hibernating but woke up seeing them. My PD is 30-Oct-2009. Can I hope to get a chance to file I-485 this FY?

[vizcard]

Long time reader, first time poster... and a big fan of the forum!

Q, Spec, Yt...
Given Math YT provides above, what do you make of the RFEs all way to end of Oct 09? I had been hibernating but woke up seeing them. My PD is 30-Oct-2009. Can I hope to get a chance to file I-485 this FY?

The Fragomen bulletin said early summer. While "early summer" is open to interpretation, I don't think Oct 2009 will get current. The Oct RFEs probably indicate that Oct 2009 will be current this time next year.

My opinion is if you have a PD of mid to late 2009, you should delay doing your medical tests till early Aug. That way it will surely be valid next year. Otherwise you run the risk of having to do it all over again.

[flexan]

I have this question on how the I-485 inventory is managed? Let's say as an hypothetical example, if 20k visas are issued to EB2-I for this FY, how far will CO move the dates for EB2-I to maintain sufficient I-485 inventory build-up?

[vizcard]

I have this question on how the I-485 inventory is managed? Let's say as an hypothetical example, if 20k visas are issued to EB2-I for this FY, how far will CO move the dates for EB2-I to maintain sufficient I-485 inventory build-up?

Its a balance of inventory and demand. Inventory = Demand + pending applications. In the current situation, there is sufficient demand to NOT need to move dates to build inventory specifically. When both demand and inventory start to get low that's when CO would moves dates specifically to build inventory.

[Spectator]

I have this question on how the I-485 inventory is managed? Let's say as an hypothetical example, if 20k visas are issued to EB2-I for this FY, how far will CO move the dates for EB2-I to maintain sufficient I-485 inventory build-up?

As vizcard says, it is a balance between demand from EB2-I and supply of visas available at the time.

That's slightly complicated because USCIS process almost 100% of EB2-I cases and CO is reliant on the information provided by them. He can only see information on preadjudicated case and, when current, new cases/ converting cases only as they are approved.

Currently, it's fair to assume that he can see pretty much all the 31k EB2-I cases in the USCIS inventory as of April 2014.

What he can't see currently (and must estimate), are cases currently showing as EB3 (porters) and any applications that USCIS have not preadjudicated and requested a visa for. On the other hand, he must also make an estimate for cases that will either be denied or delayed beyond the current FY.

For example, if he had a further 15k visas left for EB2-I this year, that would leave 31 -15 = 16k left, plus any porters who use visas plus any new applications that use visas this FY as the opening balance for FY2015. In FY2015 there would be a few more porters to account for as well.

Only when the balance of known demand remaining approaches the number of visas available at a point in time, can CO consider moving the Cut Off Dates beyond 01MAY10. In the example above, he would need around 16k+ visas in FY2015 to move the dates beyond 01MAY10 and create a new inventory. I would stress that the 15k figure is an example figure only.

Some people might say that could happen in FY2015 and other believe it will be at least FY2016 before that point is reached.

EB2-China Cut Off Dates should move beyond 01MAY10 during FY2015. They will have at least 2.8k visas available, while demand going into FY2015 will be below that figure, at least judging by the present Cut Off date and the last Inventory figures.

Generally the dates move slightly in advance of visas being exhausted, since it takes several months for USCIS to process them to completion. Only then will CO be able to see the demand.

[CleanSock]

Spec,
Based on what you said about EB2 China, I checked their progression in FY13 and FY14 so far. They seem to be moving about a month every month. If the same pace continues without it halting during Q4 FY14 then they should hit May 2010 around April 2015, give or take a couple of months. So, you say EB2I can only hit May 2010 after EB2C reaches that point?

As vizcard says, it is a balance between demand from EB2-I and supply of visas available at the time.

That's slightly complicated because USCIS process almost 100% of EB2-I cases and CO is reliant on the information provided by them. He can only see information on preadjudicated case and, when current, new cases/ converting cases only as they are approved.

Currently, it's fair to assume that he can see pretty much all the 31k EB2-I cases in the USCIS inventory as of April 2014.

What he can't see currently (and must estimate), are cases currently showing as EB3 (porters) and any applications that USCIS have not preadjudicated and requested a visa for. On the other hand, he must also make an estimate for cases that will either be denied or delayed beyond the current FY.

For example, if he had a further 15k visas left for EB2-I this year, that would leave 31 -15 = 16k left, plus any porters who use visas plus any new applications that use visas this FY as the opening balance for FY2015. In FY2015 there would be a few more porters to account for as well.

Only when the balance of known demand remaining approaches the number of visas available at a point in time, can CO consider moving the Cut Off Dates beyond 01MAY10. In the example above, he would need around 16k+ visas in FY2015 to move the dates beyond 01MAY10 and create a new inventory. I would stress that the 15k figure is an example figure only.

Some people might say that could happen in FY2015 and other believe it will be at least FY2016 before that point is reached.

EB2-China Cut Off Dates should move beyond 01MAY10 during FY2015. They will have at least 2.8k visas available, while demand going into FY2015 will be below that figure, at least judging by the present Cut Off date and the last Inventory figures.

Generally the dates move slightly in advance of visas being exhausted, since it takes several months for USCIS to process them to completion. Only then will CO be able to see the demand.

[idiotic]

Some people might say that could happen in FY2015 and other believe it will be at least FY2016 before that point is reached.

The following is more of wishful thinking

With CIR almost dead and this is Obama's sixth year of presidency do you think that there is higher probability of repeat of Aug 2007 scenario. This might serve dual purpose of providing some administrative relief for legal immigrants and also build up inventory.

[Spectator]

Spec,
Based on what you said about EB2 China, I checked their progression in FY13 and FY14 so far. They seem to be moving about a month every month. If the same pace continues without it halting during Q4 FY14 then they should hit May 2010 around April 2015, give or take a couple of months. So, you say EB2I can only hit May 2010 after EB2C reaches that point?

Cleansock,

EB2-I cannot have a Cut Off Date later than that for EB2-C while EB2-I has a greater demand than EB2-C.

To do so currently, EB2-I would be using "otherwise unused visas". In that situation, EB2-C would have to share the same Cut Off Date as EB2-I.

The converse is not true, if EB2-C can achieve a later Cut Off Date than EB2-I purely on the basis of their initial allocation (a minimum of 2.8k).

CO explained this in the May 2011 VB. The relevant part from Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5) is:

Based on amount and priority dates of pending demand and year-to-date number use, a different cut-off date could be applied to each oversubscribed country, for the purpose of assuring that the maximum amount of available numbers will be used.

Note that a cut-off date imposed to control the use of “otherwise unused” numbers could be earlier than the cut-off date established to control number use under a quarterly or per-country annual limit.

For example, at present the India Employment Second preference cut-off date governs the use of numbers under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit.

Although not directly related to your question, there was also an interesting section entitled D. BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON FREQUENTLY MISUNDERSTOOD POINTS in the April 2010 VB. It's worth having bookmarked IMO.

I think I will post the full content of both in the FACTS and DATA section for easy reference.

[CleanSock]

I see. That means they both are loosely coupled. Even though EB2I can never surpass EB2C as long as it has more demand than EB2C, at the same time EB2C hitting May 2010 doesn't guarantee EB2I hitting May 2010 sometime close to it either. So I guess demand buildup in FY15 is ruled out.

Cleansock,

EB2-I cannot have a Cut Off Date later than that for EB2-C while EB2-I has a greater demand than EB2-C.

To do so currently, EB2-I would be using "otherwise unused visas". In that situation, EB2-C would have to share the same Cut Off Date as EB2-I.

The converse is not true, if EB2-C can achieve a later Cut Off Date than EB2-I purely on the basis of their initial allocation (a minimum of 2.8k).

CO explained this in the May 2011 VB. The relevant part from Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5) is:



Although not directly related to your question, there was also an interesting section entitled D. BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON FREQUENTLY MISUNDERSTOOD POINTS in the April 2010 VB. It's worth having bookmarked IMO.

I think I will post the full content of both in the FACTS and DATA section for easy reference.

[4WatItsWorth]

I don't think Oct 2009 will get current. The Oct RFEs probably indicate that Oct 2009 will be current this time next year.

Thanks, vizcard. In that case, on the USCIS' part, why should there be a hurry to send those RFEs now verses next year? Especially, since the medicals are $600-700 expense for a family and they probably know it. Do they usually send such RFEs for dates that are not likely to be current?

Additionally, I think that close to the end of FY the last year, CO forecast Feb2008 and the dates actually moved to June2008. This year he supposedly said early Summer (say, Jun, Jul) 09. Is it possible that it may actually go through end of Oct 09? Does he tend to stay conservative?

[Chilli19]

If we assume the following visa allocations for the EB2-I (which is a fair one considering the last 4 years stats):
FY14 - 22k
FY15 - 12k
FY16 - 22k
then we can expect early 2011 cases will be getting the EADs in early FY17.
Also, FY17 will be interesting to see as there will not be any EB3-EB2 porting pressures for EB2-I as all of the EB3-I backlog will be cleared by then due to lack of EB3-ROW demand.

Based on above assumptions when do you think there is a chance of buiding new inventory i.e. getting an EAD for the PD 05/27/2010

[vizcard]

Thanks, vizcard. In that case, on the USCIS' part, why should there be a hurry to send those RFEs now verses next year? Especially, since the medicals are $600-700 expense for a family and they probably know it. Do they usually send such RFEs for dates that are not likely to be current?

Additionally, I think that close to the end of FY the last year, CO forecast Feb2008 and the dates actually moved to June2008. This year he supposedly said early Summer (say, Jun, Jul) 09. Is it possible that it may actually go through end of Oct 09? Does he tend to stay conservative?

Couple of factors -
1. USCIS and DOS are 2 different organizations that don't necessarily talk to each other on a daily basis. So USCIS doesn't know for sure how far dates will progress. For all you know DOS might be working off the same assumption that since CO said Feb 08 and dates moved to June so lets be prepared for the worst. The last thing USCIS would want is to get blamed for visas going unused. As for the money part of it, do you think they really care ?

2. CO and DOS make forecasts based on assumptions and available data at that point in time . As with any forecast, they tend to be more accurate the closer you get. So I fully expect that while he said early summer 2009 in May-end, that will change by July-end in either direction.

[Spectator]

Unofficial Prediction of Visa Number Movement for the Rest of FY 2014 From AILA Conference From Oh Law Firm

06/20/2014: Unofficial Prediction of Visa Number Movement for the Rest of FY 2014 (September 30, 2014)

Reportedly, at the AILA National Conference, DOS sources disclosed the following rough predictions:

• EB-2 India:

• August: Move upto "early" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)

• September: Move upto "spring" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)

• EB-3 India: Not more than a week at a time

• China EB-3: Anticipated major movement

• Family-based Immigrant Categories: In the current pace

On behalf of our readers, this reporter wants to express a gratitude for a colleague attorney who currently attends the conference and was sharing the valuable information with us and our audience.

[Kanmani]

From Oh Law Firm

EB-2 India:

August: Move upto "early" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)
September: Move upto "spring" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)

Hmm. Thanks Spec.

Looks like I am gonna miss the boat by 2-3 weeks difference. Frustrating!

[Pundit Arjun]

Hmm. Thanks Spec.

Looks like I am gonna miss the boat by 2-3 weeks difference. Frustrating!

I dont think you will miss the boat, Kanmani. I received an RFE and My PD is 3.5 months after you

[Spectator]

• EB-2 India:

• August: Move upto "early" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)

• September: Move upto "spring" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)

Hmm. Thanks Spec.

Looks like I am gonna miss the boat by 2-3 weeks difference. Frustrating!

Kanmani,

Well, "spring" is as vague a term as "early summer", although it is slightly less optimistic.

I do agree that the DOS (CO) information to date is something of a mismatch to the dates that USCIS are issuing RFE for. As someone mentioned previously, perhaps USCIS are going overboard in ensuring that they can't be blamed for visa wastage. That would have been fine without the change in the I-693 policy.

I wouldn't give up hope entirely.

I thought the EB3-China comment was interesting. It suggests CO overreacted with such a large retrogression and that more visas within their allocation will be available this FY.

I have no reason to believe the information is inaccurate, but I would still like to see some confirmation on other sites. Given it is the AILA Conference and quite important news, the usual suspects should also be reporting it (but maybe early next week).

[Kanmani]

Mr.CO is playing with our emotions by choosing a different strategy to torture us. First time ever, I am into the information on seasons of this country.

My favorite season is FALL. (at Shenandoah National Park)

[Spectator]

Mr.CO is playing with our emotions by choosing a different strategy to torture us. First time ever, I am into the information on seasons of this country.

My favorite season is FALL. (at Shenandoah National Park)

It's an interesting situation.

DOS are in charge of setting the Cut Off Dates, so it appears to be USCIS playing with people by hinting at later dates.

On the other hand, USCIS have complete control over the number of approvals (very few CP for EB1, EB2), so if USCIS don't approve other cases, they can force DOS' hand. June approvals on Trackitt are extremely low and I don't think that will improve from July to the end of the FY, when other case approvals will be subsumed by the flood of EB2-I approvals.

I can't disagree about Shenandoah National Park, but I think I've already completed most of the walks that can be done in a day's hiking.

[vizcard]

I can't disagree about Shenandoah National Park, but I think I've already completed most of the walks that can be done in a day's hiking.

I didn't know Spec and Kanmani are east coasters or maybe im being presumptuous.

[vyruss]

Unofficial Prediction of Visa Number Movement for the Rest of FY 2014 From AILA Conference From Oh Law Firm

06/20/2014: Unofficial Prediction of Visa Number Movement for the Rest of FY 2014 (September 30, 2014)

Reportedly, at the AILA National Conference, DOS sources disclosed the following rough predictions:

• EB-2 India:

• August: Move upto "early" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)

• September: Move upto "spring" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)

This is like a triangulation job. Fragomen said it is going to be Early Summer 2009. The AILA conference says it is going to be Spring 2009. There is no mention of early or late Spring. Either way Mid June 2009 to October 2009 appears to be toast. So even if you get an RFE, I would delay it as much as possible before responding. This will at least ensure that your medicals will be valid next year when the dates will be made current for June to October 2009. NSC has also been very slow in sending out the physical copies of the RFEs. It should at least give us more time to respond and the hope in that is the new medicals will be valid for one more year when the dates will become current again.

If we crunch the numbers, there is very less likelihood for the dates to go beyond June 2009. If we assume a lot of denials, very low porting and ultra low new applications, we can stretch the dates a bit. Making everyone go through the medical tests on a hunch that the dates may move is an unrealistic expectation. I am trying to understand what kind of medical issues lets you stay in the country for several years on temporary visas (work or otherwise), but would actually become problematic once you become a permanent resident. The biggest thing with these tests seems to be the TB test with a lot of false positives. Even if you assume you have the TB and the worst variations of it, you were in the country for more than 10 years for Pete's sake. Why would it be tested during PR process and why not before? This whole approach seems to be coming out of someones rear (sorry if I am violating the forums standards here). Is the fear that the potential immigrant is going to become a burden because of his/her health issues? Are the same set of medical evaluations applied to all the immigrants to the country (both legal and illegal)?

[SenorMeow]

Just wanted to stop by (since it has been a while) and wish those counting down the hours and minutes to July 1 the very best! It's nice to see the experts still contributing here and discussions remain respectful and content focused, which is kind of ironic considering this post is off topic .

Here's my prediction: my "expert number crunching" tells me that there will be many happy posts in the weeks to come - some later than others, but definitely happier in tone the longer the wait. Sit tight and don't lose hope if your approval notification doesn't arrive immediately - mine woke me up on an early October morning last year after what felt like an eternity!

Good luck guys!!!

[aquatican]

This latest news is definitely a setback. With Early summer it was possible PD would move to July 1 2009 or later but Spring 2009 could mean anywhere from Mar to Jun 09. It seems like fine tuning predictions is almost an impossible task because even CO is playing it by year as can been seen from Fragomen and then AILA information.

This is like a triangulation job. Fragomen said it is going to be Early Summer 2009. The AILA conference says it is going to be Spring 2009. There is no mention of early or late Spring. Either way Mid June 2009 to October 2009 appears to be toast. So even if you get an RFE, I would delay it as much as possible before responding. This will at least ensure that your medicals will be valid next year when the dates will be made current for June to October 2009. NSC has also been very slow in sending out the physical copies of the RFEs. It should at least give us more time to respond and the hope in that is the new medicals will be valid for one more year when the dates will become current again.

If we crunch the numbers, there is very less likelihood for the dates to go beyond June 2009. If we assume a lot of denials, very low porting and ultra low new applications, we can stretch the dates a bit. Making everyone go through the medical tests on a hunch that the dates may move is an unrealistic expectation. I am trying to understand what kind of medical issues lets you stay in the country for several years on temporary visas (work or otherwise), but would actually become problematic once you become a permanent resident. The biggest thing with these tests seems to be the TB test with a lot of false positives. Even if you assume you have the TB and the worst variations of it, you were in the country for more than 10 years for Pete's sake. Why would it be tested during PR process and why not before? This whole approach seems to be coming out of someones rear (sorry if I am violating the forums standards here). Is the fear that the potential immigrant is going to become a burden because of his/her health issues? Are the same set of medical evaluations applied to all the immigrants to the country (both legal and illegal)?