EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Kanmani]

trackright,

That is possible in my opinion. We have seen plenty of approvals in the past, even after the retrogression of CoD.

I can't say if that is the practicality as I have not come across anything official.

[qesehmk]

IMHO assignment of visa is the final step. So it is quite unlikely. The reason I won't say impossible because DOS/USCIS are capable of doing anything given that ultimately all institutions are only as strong as people that run them.

But I guess you are more interested in knowing if a visa number can be applied without any RFE. And the answer is absolutely yes. I just don't think not receiving an RFE is a bad thing.

All Guru's,

Would this Scenario be a possibility: If an RFE is not sent out and the applicant is current, adjucating officer assigns a VISA number and sends out RFE. Once they receive the response approve the case?

Just a thought.

[Spectator]

All Guru's,

Would this Scenario be a possibility: If an RFE is not sent out and the applicant is current, adjucating officer assigns a VISA number and sends out RFE. Once they receive the response approve the case?

Just a thought.

It's always been a subject of much speculation and differing opinions.

My thoughts would be similar to Q's.

Does it ever happen? - Probably.

Is it the norm? - I don't think so.

Looking at EB2-I always muddies the waters, since SO will be available at some time and CO can take that into account, even early on in the year in the case of FB numbers.

FY2013 into FY2014 possibly gave a rare chance to look at another Category that does not normally receive extra visas.

EB3-I dates moved dramatically in September 2013 in an attempt to use up spare visas made available by USCIS not being able to process new EB3-WW cases fast enough.

The movement generated far more eligible cases than could be approved in FY2014.

Consequently, many were approved in October/November 2013. Unlike FY2013, EB3-I will not benefit from extra visas in FY2014 and has a fixed number available.

The fact that EB3-I had to be retrogressed in December 2013 and did not again pass the October 2013 Cut Off Date again until May 2014 strongly suggests that the approvals in October/November 2013 came from the FY2014 allocation and were not approved from the FY2013 allocation.

Had a good proportion of those cases had a visa blocked from the FY2013 allocation, the EB3-I Cut Off Dates would have moved more than the 2 months it looks like they will move in FY2014.

Reserving visas awaiting an RFE response has a downside. If the RFE is not responded to, or is unacceptable, the visa might be wasted completely if the FY has ended. It is more efficient for the IO to simply issue the RFE and move onto another case where the visa might be issued immediately. They can't wait for a potential 87 days to finally approve the case and use the visa.

If there are delays between allocation and final approval, one reason might be that it is caused by a wait for a final supervisory review at the Service Center.

I think it is ultimately a question that will never have a definitive or satisfactory answer.

[Kanmani]

Reserving visas awaiting an RFE response has a downside. If the RFE is not responded to, or is unacceptable, the visa might be wasted completely if the FY has ended. It is more efficient for the IO to simply issue the RFE and move onto another case where the visa might be issued immediately. They can't wait for a potential 87 days to finally approve the case and use the visa.

If there are delays between allocation and final approval, one reason might be that it is caused by a wait for a final supervisory review at the Service Center.

I think it is ultimately a question that will never have a definitive or satisfactory answer.

Attachment 591 Nice argument Spec.

[Spectator]

Attachment 591 Nice argument Spec.

Kanmani,

Love the picture!

My reasoning could still be complete and utter rubbish. I think that's the point - nobody knows.

[Kanmani]

Kanmani,

Love the picture!

My reasoning could still be complete and utter rubbish. I think that's the point - nobody knows.

Your point is worth and valid as long as the renewal of I-693 is a must for adjudication. It is not sensible for an adjudicator to reserve a visa number and wait for the RFE response at least 50% of 19K times (I'll include myself too).

[manikchand]

They could 'reserve' a visa. Knowing that 90% or more applicants answer RFE's in < ~ 30 days,that's not a huge risk to the visa numbers. Depending on what happens with the RFE , if not received > 90 days they could then allocate the unused numbers to the next in queue. Maybe that's why the buffer of applicants Early Summer - Oct 2009 and also the reason of sending out RFE's 3 months in advance.

Everyone responds now making approvals go in line and faster when dates get current. Also, this could help with FIFO and get rid of the backlog chronologically.

[trackright]

Thanks Spec, Q and Kanmani .. That makes sense.. I just though that might be a possibility and wanted to get it out for opinions.

Your point is worth and valid as long as the renewal of I-693 is a must for adjudication. It is not sensible for an adjudicator to reserve a visa number and wait for the RFE response at least 50% of 19K times (I'll include myself too).

Adjudicator enna kenaya ? ( Somebody Good in English please translate)

[flexan]

Hello Gurus,

Are there any chances of EB2-I PD dates reaching early 2011 in Q3 2015? Thanks for your response.

[vizcard]

Hello Gurus,

Are there any chances of EB2-I PD dates reaching early 2011 in Q3 2015? Thanks for your response.

I doubt it. I think there is a chance they will move dates to 2011 in Q4 2014 earliest. I personally think it will be Q1 2015 or later.

[JJcalifornian]

Is there a way we can have an estimate on dates movement on July VB ? , in light of the current movement wouldn't help to issue so many GCs due to the undergoing RFEs.

I would receive the RFE by next week, thinking, if I hold it till the July VB and move the dates at least to 1 Feb 2009, I can get the I485 approved easily, as they open up my RFE response they see that my PD is current and issue the GC right away rather than keeping it in the file and wait for the PD movement.

[hushmybaby]

I doubt it. I think there is a chance they will move dates to 2011 in Q4 2014 earliest. I personally think it will be Q1 2015 or later.

Hi Vizcard --- Are you saying there is a chance of EB2-I 2011 to be current in 2015 ?

Please let me know as I was thinking of employment change in 2015 and start the Perm process again. Thanks.

[imdeng]

Early 2011 - Hmm... if you are looking for an EAD/AP, then IF CO starts inventory building in FY 2015 then you will have a shot at that. Currently, the overall feel on the board (and my opinion) happens to be that inventory building may not be needed until FY2016. However, we will know a little better after this FY ends. I will put the odds of it happening in Q3FY2015 as very low.

Please remember that this is just a guess, somewhat informed guess - but a guess nonetheless.

Hello Gurus,

Are there any chances of EB2-I PD dates reaching early 2011 in Q3 2015? Thanks for your response.

[qesehmk]

Guys ... i know there is a lot of euphoria and excitement because of the prospective date movement.

But may I request to keep the language professional. Don't want to be a cultural police here. So I am not going to touch anybody's post. Simply making a request.

@hushmybaby welcome to forum. Viz is saying 2011 will be current not earlier than Q4 of 2015 i.e. Jul-Sep of 2015.

[vizcard]

Sorry I meant to Q4 2015 in my earlier post sinc we are already in Q4 2014

[CleanSock]

But what if the armageddon scenario (as mentioned by Spec) comes true? Then we won't even touch 2010 next FY.

Sorry I meant to Q4 2015 in my earlier post sinc we are already in Q4 2014

[Silverlining027]

But what if the armageddon scenario (as mentioned by Spec) comes true? Then we won't even touch 2010 next FY.

I have same question in my mind. My PD is july 2010, EB2I. Gurus please provide some info. Thank you.

[vizcard]

I have same question in my mind. My PD is july 2010, EB2I. Gurus please provide some info. Thank you.

Spec is right. The numbers don't support movement. The only way it would move is if CO wants to build inventory. I doubt it'll happen in FY2015 but if it did I'd expect it in Sept 2015.

[triplet]

Spec is right. The numbers don't support movement. The only way it would move is if CO wants to build inventory. I doubt it'll happen in FY2015 but if it did I'd expect it in Sept 2015.

I think it sucks, but the fact is we all have to wait for 6 years - I think 6 is the norm and 5 is the exception. My PD is Oct 08 and it will be 6 years (if &) when I get the green card in my hand this year. The ebb and flow of the process could land a green card for those who have priority dates at the start of 2010 in 5, but the chances of that are slim. There's no other way of putting it, it simply sucks and more so if you're stuck in a job that you don't like. Think like this though, once you get it, everything opens up and it would have all been worth it - so, hang in there and don't give up!

[eb22010]

I got the EAD end of April 2012. For me, ****iew it as 3.5 years, which is not too bad considering everything. Yes, the actual green card is going to happen this year, but it doesn't change anything for me at least.

Late 2008-early 2010 was the "lucky window". Most of us got the EADs into 2-3.5 years of our GC journey. The unlucky folks are late 2010 folks who are really going to have to wait 6 years just for the EAD.

I missed to file earlier when the dates were current previously. Any chance wheb Feb 2010 will be current again. Is it in 2016?

[CleanSock]

I guess early 2011 people don't even come into the picture in that case. I think there may not be any inventory build up post May 2010 the reason being 2010 is a heavy year in terms of number of applications. All CO may need to do is move the dates by 6 months and he would get enough applications to use all the available visas.

I got the EAD end of April 2012. For me, ****iew it as 3.5 years, which is not too bad considering everything. Yes, the actual green card is going to happen this year, but it doesn't change anything for me at least.

Late 2008-early 2010 was the "lucky window". Most of us got the EADs into 2-3.5 years of our GC journey. The unlucky folks are late 2010 folks who are really going to have to wait 6 years just for the EAD.

[YTeleven]

I guess early 2011 people don't even come into the picture in that case. I think there may not be any inventory build up post May 2010 the reason being 2010 is a heavy year in terms of number of applications. All CO may need to do is move the dates by 6 months and he would get enough applications to use all the available visas.

This is NOT entirely true. Actually, the FY2010 received 28% lesser PERM applications than FY2009. As the PD is based on the PERM received date, we will see lesser applications in FY2010. Key here is FY2010 NOT CY2010.
There is a very bright chance of inventory buildup in 2nd of half of FY2015. In FY2015 EB2-ROW will consume heavily but still we can expect a total visa allocations to EB2-I in the range of 12k to 15K which will be 10K lesser than what is predicted for FY14. If you go thru my earlier postings, I was predicted the date movement to July1st 2009(which was a conservative estimate) based on the EB2-ROW consumption pattern, when everyone was so pessimistic on date movements including CO.

[vedu]

YTeleven,

It's good to hear your early predictions about the next year! We will have far better insight once this year's craziness ends in a few months!

This is NOT entirely true. Actually, the FY2010 received 28% lesser PERM applications than FY2009. As the PD is based on the PERM received date, we will see lesser applications in FY2010. Key here is FY2010 NOT CY2010.
There is a very bright chance of inventory buildup in 2nd of half of FY2015. In FY2015 EB2-ROW will consume heavily but still we can expect a total visa allocations to EB2-I in the range of 12k to 15K which will be 10K lesser than what is predicted for FY14. If you go thru my earlier postings, I was predicted the date movement to July1st 2009(which was a conservative estimate) based on the EB2-ROW consumption pattern, when everyone was so pessimistic on date movements including CO.

[CleanSock]

Inventory buildup in second half of FY2015? That sounds very dream like! I just checked PERM statistics of FY 2010. I see from DOL pdf that they certified 28,930 PERM applications from Indians. I am not sure how many of those were for EB2I. How does that number compare to EB2I in FY2009 and how many have they processed/will be processing (a rough estimate) by the end of this FY?
Sorry if this had already been explained before. All those previous calculations went over my head.

This is NOT entirely true. Actually, the FY2010 received 28% lesser PERM applications than FY2009. As the PD is based on the PERM received date, we will see lesser applications in FY2010. Key here is FY2010 NOT CY2010.
There is a very bright chance of inventory buildup in 2nd of half of FY2015. In FY2015 EB2-ROW will consume heavily but still we can expect a total visa allocations to EB2-I in the range of 12k to 15K which will be 10K lesser than what is predicted for FY14. If you go thru my earlier postings, I was predicted the date movement to July1st 2009(which was a conservative estimate) based on the EB2-ROW consumption pattern, when everyone was so pessimistic on date movements including CO.

[vizcard]

This is NOT entirely true. Actually, the FY2010 received 28% lesser PERM applications than FY2009. As the PD is based on the PERM received date, we will see lesser applications in FY2010. Key here is FY2010 NOT CY2010.
There is a very bright chance of inventory buildup in 2nd of half of FY2015. In FY2015 EB2-ROW will consume heavily but still we can expect a total visa allocations to EB2-I in the range of 12k to 15K which will be 10K lesser than what is predicted for FY14. If you go thru my earlier postings, I was predicted the date movement to July1st 2009(which was a conservative estimate) based on the EB2-ROW consumption pattern, when everyone was so pessimistic on date movements including CO.

Could you explain the math again for me please (or point me to the post if you posted it previously). There are variables for the 485 numbers that are not necessarily reflected in PERM numbers.
- EB1 doesn't need PERM (affects SO)
- EB3 -> EB2 porting may inflate some of the previous PERM numbers... so net new might not really be that much lower.
- PERM data reports don't split by EB2 and EB3.