EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[imdeng]

A few posts moved to: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...c-Appreciation

:-)

[gcpursuit]

About 5K numbers will straight up come from next year's quota. With an anticipated 15K spillover, 20K green cards can be expected to be given out. To give out 20K GCs, the date needs to be moved to make about 25K people eligible (just an estimate). This means 5K people will be left out when the date eventually retrogresses.

Sportsfan - Why would we get 5K from next year's quota since FB is not going to yield any spillover?

[sdesh005]

Question for inquiring minds. We now have confirmation of RFEs up to Oct 2009 PDs. They wouldn't be sending RFEs unless there is at least some chance of dates reaching that far. But - even most optimistic projections don't have dates moving to Oct 2009. So what's going on here?? Especially considering that if one doesn't get approved this year, they will send an RFE for Medical (and I guess EVL) next year again since, as Spec explained beautifully, I-693s will expire again in one year from the date of issue. Any thoughts?? Can dates conceivably move up to Oct 2009 this FY? I, personally, don't see it happening - but what other explanation is there?

I too have wondered about the same thing! I doubt there is any real need for them to move dates up to Oct 2009 just because RFEs were issued, but yeah you are right...why would they, unless they had some idea about the PD moving up to that point in the upcoming bulletin(s)? It could just be wishful thinking on our part because our PDs go beyond "early summer" (mine is end of July 2009, no EAD still ), but fingers crossed!

If I had to guess, I'd say June 01, 2009 would be the end point this FY...but who knows, there may be a very slim chance we get lucky!

[Spectator]

Question for inquiring minds. We now have confirmation of RFEs up to Oct 2009 PDs. They wouldn't be sending RFEs unless there is at least some chance of dates reaching that far. But - even most optimistic projections don't have dates moving to Oct 2009. So what's going on here?? Especially considering that if one doesn't get approved this year, they will send an RFE for Medical (and I guess EVL) next year again since, as Spec explained beautifully, I-693s will expire again in one year from the date of issue. Any thoughts?? Can dates conceivably move up to Oct 2009 this FY? I, personally, don't see it happening - but what other explanation is there?

RFE are issued all the time.

It may have changed, but I have yet to see a confirmed case of an RFE for a new I-693 for a late 2009 PD.

It needs about 22k approvals to satisfy the cases in the USCIS Inventory up to a COD of 01OCT09. Even allowing a 20% contingency for movement, at least 18k visas (plus any porting cases) would be needed in Q4 to satisfy that sort of movement. That seems a bit unlikely, even with the low number of EB2-WW approvals.

[gcpursuit]

RFE are issued all the time.

It may have changed, but I have yet to see a confirmed case of an RFE for a new I-693 for a late 2009 PD.

It needs about 22k approvals to satisfy the cases in the USCIS Inventory up to a COD of 01OCT09. Even allowing a 20% contingency for movement, at least 18k visas (plus any porting cases) would be needed in Q4 to satisfy that sort of movement. That seems a bit unlikely, even with the low number of EB2-WW approvals.

Spec - If we assume that next year's quota will also be used, does that make this possible? In your opinion what is a realistic COD?

P.S : I hope you say something beyond end of june ;-)

[Spectator]

Spec - If we assume that next year's quota will also be used, does that make this possible? In your opinion what is a realistic COD?

P.S : I hope you say something beyond end of june ;-)

That's such a difficult question.

I'm working on there being an additional 15-16k visas being available. That will bring the total number of EB2-I approvals somewhere to over 20k for the FY (depending on how many you think have already been used).

Depending on how much contingency is used, that translates to a COD in June/July 2009 IMO (perhaps a bit further if the porting cases do not get approved).

I do have some concerns about pre July 2007 porting cases pulling the COD back and it is difficult to judge how many there might be ready to be converted. There is no large body of evidence yet of USCIS issuing Medical RFE to these cases. Since the Medical would have last been completed in July 2007, all those cases will need a new I-693 and cannot be approved without an RFE.

Like many people, I'm looking at the RFE pattern with some interest.

Everyone knows I am a pessimist.

[gcpursuit]

That's such a difficult question.

I'm working on there being an additional 15-16k visas being available. That will bring the total number of EB2-I approvals somewhere to over 20k for the FY (depending on how many you think have already been used).

Depending on how much contingency is used, that translates to a COD in June/July 2009 IMO (perhaps a bit further if the porting cases do not get approved).

I do have some concerns about pre July 2007 porting cases pulling the COD back and it is difficult to judge how many there might be ready to be converted. There is no large body of evidence yet of USCIS issuing Medical RFE to these cases. Since the Medical would have last been completed in July 2007, all those cases will need a new I-693 and cannot be approved without an RFE.

Like many people, I'm looking at the RFE pattern with some interest.

Everyone knows I am a pessimist.

Thank you,Spec. I am going to be selfish and wish it atleast reaches July 1st 2009 to get my EAD.

Forgive me for my ignorance. I know there will be pre-July 2007 porting cases but wouldnt most of them have ported last year. Would there be so much demand from pre-july 2007 porters? And what are the chances that a new application filed in July would affect the COD dates? Doesn't I-485 take much longer to get approved?

[Spectator]

Thank you,Spec. I am going to be selfish and wish it atleast reaches July 1st 2009 to get my EAD.

Forgive me for my ignorance. I know there will be pre-July 2007 porting cases but wouldnt most of them have ported last year. Would there be so much demand from pre-july 2007 porters? And what are the chances that a new application filed in July would affect the COD dates? Doesn't I-485 take much longer to get approved?

As I've said before, I don't think anyone filing a new I-485 will affect the approval numbers for FY2014 very much.

People will port when they have the opportunity or when they personally decide it is the only option. That timescale will be different for people with pre July 2007 PD. Not everyone will port immediately for various reasons.

The porting from those dates will continue for years, although it may be at a lesser number over time. As of the April Inventory, there are still more than 27k cases with a PD between 2004 and July 2007 for EB3-I.

Also, remember the actual porting process started a long time ago and involves a new PERM and I-140 approval. That can't just be switched off overnight. Given the gap between the "real" EB2-I Cut Off Date and and the EB3-I Cut Off Date, porting will continue. It's still many, many years before EB3-I is set to pass a COD of 01AUG07.

[suninphx]

sun,

In FY2011, EB2-WW (ROW, M, P) used 34,550 visas.

In FY2012, EB2-WW used 25,009 visas. EB2-WW was artificially retrogressed in Q4 and approvals that should have taken place in FY2012 were pushed to FY2013.

In FY2013, EB2-WW used 42,641 visas. The increase can be attributed to those delayed from FY2012 due to retrogression.

The average EB2-WW approvals for FY2012/FY2013 was 33,825 and for the period FY2011-FY2013 it was 34,067.

When only 140,000 EB visas are available, the initial allocation for EB2-WW is 34,434.

FY2014 approvals for EB2-WW have been exceptionally low, probably due to PERM processing times increasing and slow I-140 processing. Likely I-485 approvals have come from a time when certification numbers were very low.

The PERM processing times have started to reduce recently and the volume of PERM certifications has increased hugely (Q2 & Q3 FY2014 have seen double the number of certifications compared to each of the 4 preceding quarters).

There does not seem to be a reduction in the underlying number of EB-WW PERM cases, so it likely the EB2-WW I-485 approvals will rise sharply in FY2015. The lower the number of approvals in FY2014, the higher the approval numbers in FY2015 are likely to be.

EB3-ROW date movement might have a small effect eventually, but that will be for new PERM and probably only a major factor if EB3-ROW become Current.

Q has summarised it very eloquently in the next post.

Spec - thank you for excellent data points and thanks to Q for a nice summary.

There is no doubt that slow PERM processing (and all other related processing) has helped EB2I tremendously this year.

Going into next year here are couple of points for EB2-ROW to yield few thousand spillovers( I know it wont be as great as this year but may be not as bad as being projected)

1) PERM processing has picked up speed but still takes around 6 months and seems to be stabilizing around that point
2) Even if number approved PERM cases is increasing % of EB2-ROW continues to decrease and as EB3-ROW dates are also moving and near current ..less porting pressure on EB2-ROW and may be more % of EB3-ROW cases in the mix.

Lets see how it goes. Jan 15 inventory (if published) might have some useful data. But even before that let's see how this FY ends. Looking at the dates for which RFE are being issued , it appears we are in for a wild ride of random approvals. I am hope I am wrong here.

[Kanmani]

Since the Medical would have last been completed in July 2007, all those cases will need a new I-693 and cannot be approved without an RFE.

Like many people, I'm looking at the RFE pattern with some interest.

Looking at the RFE pattern, I am of the opinion that 2008/2009 ers without RFE may get approved with their already submitted I-693 itself. If there wasn't an arrangement as stated above, random RFEs are impossible.

If that is not the case, I am wondering how USCIS going to go with at least 18k RFEs in a short span of time.

[qesehmk]

I am wondering how USCIS going to go with at least 18k RFEs in a short span of time.

Unfortunately it is a bit of spray and pray kind of strategy to me. They are issuing RFEs until Sep/Oct 2009 is a good indication that the dates actually might move upto that point. But then the reason they are a bit aggressive is to ensure that they fully utilize the quota. Not everyone with those dates will receive a GC so what we might see is people upto Mar most likely getting greened and then between Mar and Sep becomes a game of luck. But all of that is understandable. I wouldn't blame CO for such a strategy.

[vizcard]

Unfortunately it is a bit of spray and pray kind of strategy to me. They are issuing RFEs until Sep/Oct 2009 is a good indication that the dates actually might move upto that point. But then the reason they are a bit aggressive is to ensure that they fully utilize the quota. Not everyone with those dates will receive a GC so what we might see is people upto Mar most likely getting greened and then between Mar and Sep becomes a game of luck. But all of that is understandable. I wouldn't blame CO for such a strategy.

Possibly. But if they go by the book EVERY 2008/2009 person HAS to have a RFE. To Kanmanis point, how on earth are they going to process that unless it's just a matter of having a complete file for a pre-adjudicated case. A "check the box" exercise.

[Spectator]

Possibly. But if they go by the book EVERY 2008/2009 person HAS to have a RFE. To Kanmanis point, how on earth are they going to process that unless it's just a matter of having a complete file for a pre-adjudicated case. A "check the box" exercise.

So far, USCIS seem to have done that by shifting their entire workforce to issuing RFE. There's hardly been any approvals in June in any Category.

That strategy becomes a positive feedback loop.

USCIS/DOS managed to approve 15k EB2-I cases in 6 weeks and a further 5k EB3-I cases in 2 weeks last year. I don't think issuing 18k RFE is a problem given the time left in the FY.

[Jagan01]

Looking at the RFE pattern, I am of the opinion that 2008/2009 ers without RFE may get approved with their already submitted I-693 itself. If there wasn't an arrangement as stated above, random RFEs are impossible.

If that is not the case, I am wondering how USCIS going to go with at least 18k RFEs in a short span of time.

We do need to look at the concentration of the RFEs. There is a bunch of RFEs until Feb 2009. From Mar 2009 onwards the RFEs are pretty sparse. I have never applied for I-485 and do not know about the process after applying I-485. Is it always true that people who RFE should be current in that FY ?

[helpful_leo]

I have seen this possibility mentioned quite a bit - but will that be even legal since the recent I-693 policy change?
Or is there a loophole the CO can exploit to workaround the I-693 renewal requirement?

It would also be interesting to see what % of 2008 PDs have not received RFEs.
I am one of them : Dec 2008 PD, 485 / I-693 filed early Jan, 2012.

Looking at the RFE pattern, I am of the opinion that 2008/2009 ers without RFE may get approved with their already submitted I-693 itself. If there wasn't an arrangement as stated above, random RFEs are impossible.

If that is not the case, I am wondering how USCIS going to go with at least 18k RFEs in a short span of time.

[Jagan01]

I think we are all happy with the SO this year. However, one lesson I learnt is that there were two theories floating around at the start of the FY regarding the supply of visas which were given out in Oct / Nov 2013.

I might have to go back and check, but I distinctly remember that Q mentioned that approvals in Oct 2013 might have been numbers that were allotted from FY 2013. I feel he was bang on target. May be CO did not give out as many GCs from the FY 2014 allocation, as many here and on other forums predicted. May be the spillover from this FY was not used in the beginning of the year and all numbers came from FY 2013 OR FY 2014 regular 2.8k allocation. That might be the reason of a larger than anticipated "unused spillover" as of today.

Good luck to everyone who is current. Hope to see some long awaited approvals.

[helooo]

Gurus,
I am a first time filer with June 16,2008 date.What is the best case scenario to receive EAD and GC.My H1 is expiring on 09/30/2014.Do I need to apply for extension?
Thanks!

[vizcard]

Gurus,
I am a first time filer with June 16,2008 date.What is the best case scenario to receive EAD and GC.My H1 is expiring on 09/30/2014.Do I need to apply for extension?
Thanks!

There are 2 dynamics at play here
1. Legal status
2. Work authorization

For #1, you are good to go as you will be in the "pending 485" status.

#2 is a timing thing - You should get your application (485/EAD/AP) in before the 4th of july holiday. That way you will definitely get your EAD before 9/30 (there is a 90 day processing time window). If you feel that you will not be able to get your EAD application in immediately, you may want to consider extending your H1B.

There is an outside chance you will get your GC directly too especially if your date stays current in Oct.

[imdeng]

As vizcard said, you don't necessarily need to apply for H1B extension if you get your EAD application out quickly. However, it is usually recommended that you stay on H1 until you get your GC, if possible. If you run into some trouble with your 485 and/or EAD - you will at least have a backup option.

Gurus,
I am a first time filer with June 16,2008 date.What is the best case scenario to receive EAD and GC.My H1 is expiring on 09/30/2014.Do I need to apply for extension?
Thanks!

[imdeng]

One can get an RFE without being current, one can also reply to an RFE without being current.

I feel that as they are sending RFEs every day, and they have good amount of time left this FY, they can indeed send them to everyone until late 2009. USCIS has shown that they can ramp up pretty quick when they need to. 18K RFEs is not that much high for the kind of workload USCIS processes.

We do need to look at the concentration of the RFEs. There is a bunch of RFEs until Feb 2009. From Mar 2009 onwards the RFEs are pretty sparse. I have never applied for I-485 and do not know about the process after applying I-485. Is it always true that people who RFE should be current in that FY ?

[imdeng]

That seems like a sound strategy to me. In Aug, give GC up to a safe date that will not cross the SO limits. Then for Sept extend dates such that there are enough ready cases to not waste any number (right now, it seems, somebody has figured this to be Oct 2009). This will mean that only a fraction of the folks in the last group will get GC - but at least there will be no waste.

Unfortunately it is a bit of spray and pray kind of strategy to me. They are issuing RFEs until Sep/Oct 2009 is a good indication that the dates actually might move upto that point. But then the reason they are a bit aggressive is to ensure that they fully utilize the quota. Not everyone with those dates will receive a GC so what we might see is people upto Mar most likely getting greened and then between Mar and Sep becomes a game of luck. But all of that is understandable. I wouldn't blame CO for such a strategy.

[Spectator]

That seems like a sound strategy to me. In Aug, give GC up to a safe date that will not cross the SO limits. Then for Sept extend dates such that there are enough ready cases to not waste any number (right now, it seems, somebody has figured this to be Oct 2009). This will mean that only a fraction of the folks in the last group will get GC - but at least there will be no waste.

With the change in the I-693 validity policy, it is also important to ensure that more people do not fall though to FY2015 than there are visas available in FY2015 prior to retrogression.

I can almost guarantee that a late 2009 PD applicant who submits their RFE response in June and who is not approved before retrogression in FY2015 will have to repeat their Medical Exam again.

In that respect, I expected a more staged issuance of RFE by the PD likely to be current in the next VB. If the COD is likely to move to early 2009 in the August VB, there is no need to issue late 2009 PD RFE in June at all.

[imdeng]

I agree. Thats why I was surprised by Medical RFEs given to late 2009 PDs. It would have made more sense to go in stages as you mentioned. But then, as you mentioned, USCIS seem to be doing just RFEs right now. I guess they want to be done with all RFEs and get back to then processing the responses and approving cases. This would mean duplication of effort for both the applicants and USCIS for all folks who get RFE but do not get approved this year - but then long range planning has never been USCIS' strong suite.

A (very unlikely to happen) workaround would be to finish the visa numbers for this year in Sept, push dates to Oct-09 (or whatever is the latest RFE) in Oct - and then drop another 5-6K visas from FY2015 allocation in Oct to clear out the RFE inventory. Unlikely to happen because they can't give more than the normal allocation (2.8K) so early in the FY, the 27% rule, uncertainty of future SO numbers etc.

...
I can almost guarantee that a late 2009 PD applicant who submits their RFE response in June and who is not approved before retrogression in FY2015 will have to repeat their Medical Exam again.

In that respect, I expected a more staged issuance of RFE by the PD likely to be current in the next VB. If the COD is likely to move to early 2009 in the August VB, there is no need to issue late 2009 PD RFE in June at all.

[trackright]

All Guru's,

Would this Scenario be a possibility: If an RFE is not sent out and the applicant is current, adjucating officer assigns a VISA number and sends out RFE. Once they receive the response approve the case?

Just a thought.

[vizcard]

All Guru's,

Would this Scenario be a possibility: If an RFE is not sent out and the applicant is current, adjucating officer assigns a VISA number and sends out RFE. Once they receive the response approve the case?

Just a thought.

Based on my understanding of the process that would not be possible. I'm not sure how one could "reserve a visa" without putting him/her on the demand list i.e. "approving" the person. They couldn't approve a person without having the complete file - in this case, it wouldn't have a valid 693.

Maybe Kanmani can chime in.