EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[CleanSock]

Got it. Thanks!

[savinir]

Again, allowing 5% denial, the current Inventory shows around 10.5k cases between the COD of 01APR10 you would require and a COD of 01JUN09.

Spec,

My PD is 15 Sep 2009. Any chance of getting GC this year or atleast in next year.


thank you for your time and effort.

[Raj0687]

I still don't get how the EB2I date would move upto jun/09 ? How would EB2I get 15K?

I know that there are only 10K FB spill over, very few from EB1, not many from EB2ROW.
Can some please through some light.

[ksur23]

Found this on Fragomen about August and September. http://www.fragomen.com/newsresource...tins&news=2704

"The State Department projects that the cut-off date could move to February 2009 in August and to an early summer 2009 date in September of this year."

[vedu]

That's great news. Just this morning I was doing some rough calculations and thought that the dates might move to February 1st 2009 in August and then to July 1st 2009 in September. I looked at the pending I-485 inventory and seems like by this logic, approximately 6,000 visas will be given to EB2I each month (July, August, September) for a total of 18,000 for the rest of the year. We will see how this pans out!

Found this on Fragomen about August and September. http://www.fragomen.com/newsresource...tins&news=2704

"The State Department projects that the cut-off date could move to February 2009 in August and to an early summer 2009 date in September of this year."

[imdeng]

I have moved (and replied to) a couple of post about RFEs to that thread. That thread has good amount of traffic right now - so don't worry about your post not getting attention there.

PS> I don't mind folks with urgent needs posting in the calculations thread occasionally; perhaps selfishly as I have done so myself in the past. For RFEs though - since we have a pretty active thread available, I will be moving RFE related posts there.

Guys please respect moderator's time and effort and post in appropriate threads.

[imdeng]

Welcome to the forum Raj. EB2ROW is the one expected to provide the bulk of SO this year. There has been a whole lot of discussion around why and how. PERM slowdown, has been C all year, low EB3ROW to EB2ROW porting because of EB3ROW movement etc. This will turn around next year though - but lets not worry about that now.

I still don't get how the EB2I date would move upto jun/09 ? How would EB2I get 15K?

I know that there are only 10K FB spill over, very few from EB1, not many from EB2ROW.
Can some please through some light.

[imdeng]

Am not Spec - but here are my $0.02 - This year is very tough but next year looks pretty good for you (and by corollary, for me, an Aug-2009 PD). Hang in there though - you are right in that very thin portion of demand density - so it wouldn't take very many visa numbers for things to move from June-09 to Sept-09. However, considering that even June-09 is a stretch, the odds are low for Sept-09 this year.

Spec,

My PD is 15 Sep 2009. Any chance of getting GC this year or atleast in next year.


thank you for your time and effort.

[imdeng]

I agree. There is no drama with EB2C - we know the exact demand and the exact supply - its just following its track. No one of consciously trying to keep EB2I just behind EB2C - its just how numbers have shaped up. It will continue to be so in coming years as well.

This is true. Buts its not a conspiracy. Eb2C just doesn't have the demand and hence has moved way ahead and EB2I has benefited as a result

[imdeng]

Q - the bulletin is more aggressive than just matching where we should have been. We finished FY2013 at 15JUN08 - so we are extending PD by 2.5 months off the bat - in July itself. Last year PDs did not move until the Aug bulletin.

I don't think there was any danger of EB2ROW getting off from being Current - was there? Your point on EB3ROW is valid and important. Its movement forward will be key to see if we can finally reach the scenario of horizontal spillovers to EB3I in near future.

So here are 3 key takeaways from this Visa Bulletin:
1. EB2I moved to where it should've been all year along (but was technically retrogressed because of portings). This movement is only partial and there should be further movement in next bulletin.
2. EB2 ROW stays current - that's good for EB2IC.
3. EB3 ROW doesn't retrogress further - which means EB3ROW has stabilized and now the forward movements will resume with new year or may be even earlier.

[imdeng]

Not for many many years. They are moving 5 weeks every month - and they are 5 years behind the current date - so at that rate they will take several decades to become current and provide SO to EB2I. They are suffering the side effects of the massive EB2I backlog.

Glass half full view is that we might some SO from EB2 C too .......... ofcourse it'll be negligible but to the person who gets approved because of it, he/she will be thankful.

[suninphx]

-
Now the bad:
- The big spillover from EB2-ROW comes at a price, which is that next year, they will provide nothing for all practical purposes.

Data point/analysis please?

[qesehmk]

imdeng thanks. Lets talk about all 3 one by one.
1. EB2I date is artificially retrogressed on a technicality of 7% quota (approx equal to 2800). The porting is more than that and so DOS moves dates to 2004. I think the dates should've been current into Jun 2008 all along. That is where the wall of demand is for EB2I. All other prior demand is trickling in from various prior months from EB3I.
2. EB2ROW indeed is not a surprise and that is the point. You don't want a bad surprise.
3. EB3ROW staying at Apr 2011 is good and forward movement will start soon but now I am a bit less bullish on EB3ROW being current next year. We will see!

Q - the bulletin is more aggressive than just matching where we should have been. We finished FY2013 at 15JUN08 - so we are extending PD by 2.5 months off the bat - in July itself. Last year PDs did not move until the Aug bulletin.

I don't think there was any danger of EB2ROW getting off from being Current - was there? Your point on EB3ROW is valid and important. Its movement forward will be key to see if we can finally reach the scenario of horizontal spillovers to EB3I in near future.

[vyruss]

Dates being current for mid-2009 contradicts many calculations (based on best available data of course). My theory is that any 2009 dates made current will only get RFEs this September. You respond to the RFEs with fresh medicals which are valid through October 2015. So any 2009 dates that are current will be greened in Summer 2015 and not in September/October 2014. This approach also gives CO with a latest set of inventory to deal with next year. This approach is feasible only for 2009 when the PERM filings are low. Even if the 2009 dates are not made current in September 2014, they will to be made current and greened next year; so why not issue the RFE now- the medicals that follow will be valid for one year. Thoughts??

[Spectator]

-
Now the bad:
- The big spillover from EB2-ROW comes at a price, which is that next year, they will provide nothing for all practical purposes.

Data point/analysis please?

sun,

In FY2011, EB2-WW (ROW, M, P) used 34,550 visas.

In FY2012, EB2-WW used 25,009 visas. EB2-WW was artificially retrogressed in Q4 and approvals that should have taken place in FY2012 were pushed to FY2013.

In FY2013, EB2-WW used 42,641 visas. The increase can be attributed to those delayed from FY2012 due to retrogression.

The average EB2-WW approvals for FY2012/FY2013 was 33,825 and for the period FY2011-FY2013 it was 34,067.

When only 140,000 EB visas are available, the initial allocation for EB2-WW is 34,434.

FY2014 approvals for EB2-WW have been exceptionally low, probably due to PERM processing times increasing and slow I-140 processing. Likely I-485 approvals have come from a time when certification numbers were very low.

The PERM processing times have started to reduce recently and the volume of PERM certifications has increased hugely (Q2 & Q3 FY2014 have seen double the number of certifications compared to each of the 4 preceding quarters).

There does not seem to be a reduction in the underlying number of EB-WW PERM cases, so it likely the EB2-WW I-485 approvals will rise sharply in FY2015. The lower the number of approvals in FY2014, the higher the approval numbers in FY2015 are likely to be.

EB3-ROW date movement might have a small effect eventually, but that will be for new PERM and probably only a major factor if EB3-ROW become Current.

Q has summarised it very eloquently in the next post.

[qesehmk]

In simple words - the fundamental demand doesn't vary far too much from one year to next. However due to idosyncracies of processing various states of GC (Labor, 140 & 485) the SOFAD waxes and wanes from one year to the next.

sun,

In FY2011, EB2-WW (ROW, M, P) used 34,550 visas.

In FY2012, EB2-WW used 25,009 visas. EB2-WW was artificially retrogressed in Q4 and approvals that should have taken place in FY2012 were pushed to FY2013.

In FY2013, EB2-WW used 42,641 visas. The increase can be attributed to those delayed from FY2012 due to retrogression.

The average EB2-WW approvals for FY2012/FY2013 was 33,825 and for the period FY2011-FY2013 it was 34,067.

When only 140,000 EB visas are available, the initial allocation for EB2-WW is 34,434.

FY2014 approvals for EB2-WW have been exceptionally low, probably due to PERM processing times increasing and slow I-140 processing. Likely I-485 approvals have come from a time when certification numbers were very low.

The PERM processing times have started to reduce recently and the volume of PERM certifications has increased hugely (Q2 & Q3 FY2014 have seen double the number of certifications compared to each of the 4 preceding quarters).

There does not seem to be a reduction in the underlying number of EB-WW PERM cases, so it likely the EB2-WW I-485 approvals will rise sharply in FY2015. The lower the number of approvals in FY2014, the higher the approval numbers in FY2015 are likely to be.

EB3-ROW date movement might have a small effect eventually, but that will be for new PERM and probably only a major factor if EB3-ROW become Current.

[vyruss]

Some folks have got their RFE. Most likely they will respond in the month of June with 693 dated June 2014. This should expire June 2015. So unless they get current June 1, the 693 expires.

The response doesn't reset the clock. The date of the medical exam resets the clock. So if you get your 693 done today but send the final response in by 6/13, the clock starts on 6/11 and not 6/13. Atleast that's my understanding of the rule.

vizcard thanks for that clarity. This is all under the assumption that the RFEs are for medicals and not for something else. Talked to a friend who received a notice for FP appointment for his son. His PD is May 2009. I think they need a fresh set of FP for him.

Part of the pessimism in my reasoning stems from the disbelief in the date movement without any numbers backing it. Where are the numbers for this coming from? Every category seems to be more or less used with spillovers limited to less than 10,000. For the dates to move to mid-2009, and actually greened, there is a need for at least 20,000 numbers for regular cases and some more for CP cases. Does anyone have a reasonable grasp on where the excess spillover is coming from?

[bluelabel]

Q - the bulletin is more aggressive than just matching where we should have been. We finished FY2013 at 15JUN08 - so we are extending PD by 2.5 months off the bat - in July itself. Last year PDs did not move until the Aug bulletin.

I don't think there was any danger of EB2ROW getting off from being Current - was there? Your point on EB3ROW is valid and important. Its movement forward will be key to see if we can finally reach the scenario of horizontal spillovers to EB3I in near future.

Is there a chance in FY 2015, CO moves dates in advance to 1st May 2010 and build additional inventory with portings/new applications instead of waiting till July 2015?

[vyruss]

Thanks for that Spec/Sportsfan. With the date movement there will be fresh wave of porting added to the mix. Do porters file a fresh 485 when they interfile? If they do, the 485 processing time of 4 months essentially kills their chance of getting greened in FY 2014 as dates are expected to retrogress in November anyway. Is this correct?

[imdeng]

Welcome to the forum bluelabel. My opinion is that there is enough inventory and additional demand (porting, folks who missed filing during last inventory gathering) left in EB2I to finish FY2015 without trying to get new inventory. New inventory will likely not be necessary until FY2016.

Is there a chance in FY 2015, CO moves dates in advance to 1st May 2010 and build additional inventory with portings/new applications instead of waiting till July 2015?

[mkmcmmn]

Hi vyruss,
If an applicant had already filed a I-485 based on an EB3 I140, they do NOT need to file another I-485 after their EB2 I140 is approved. They can just send a "interfiling request" to USCIS to link the original I485 to the newly approved EB2 I140. This process is relatively fast, it does not take 4 months.... may be just a month or so.

Thanks for that Spec. With the date movement there will be fresh wave of porting added to the mix. Do porters file a fresh 485 when they interfile? If they do, the 485 processing time of 4 months essentially kills their chance of getting greened in FY 2014 as dates are expected to retrogress in November anyway. Is this correct?

[imdeng]

We shouldn't ascribe too much strategic decision making to what CO/USCIS do. IMO CO/USCIS look only as far as their eyes (and available data) see - which in most cases does not extend beyond the end of the FY. The situation is too fluid and dynamic for long term planning - every FY is different with different sets of constraints - just look at the EB2-WW numbers posted by Spec couple posts down.

Dates being current for mid-2009 contradicts many calculations (based on best available data of course). My theory is that any 2009 dates made current will only get RFEs this September. You respond to the RFEs with fresh medicals which are valid through October 2015. So any 2009 dates that are current will be greened in Summer 2015 and not in September/October 2014. This approach also gives CO with a latest set of inventory to deal with next year. This approach is feasible only for 2009 when the PERM filings are low. Even if the 2009 dates are not made current in September 2014, they will to be made current and greened next year; so why not issue the RFE now- the medicals that follow will be valid for one year. Thoughts??

[Spectator]

Thanks for that Spec. With the date movement there will be fresh wave of porting added to the mix. Do porters file a fresh 485 when they interfile? If they do, the 485 processing time of 4 months essentially kills their chance of getting greened in FY 2014 as dates are expected to retrogress in November anyway. Is this correct?

sportsfan answered so thanks should go there. My answer was a repeat, so it was deleted.

There are 2 types of porters.

a) Those who already have an I-485 pending under EB3. That's limited to PDs up to July 2007, since EB3-I has never passed that date since EB3-I was Current in 2007.

Those cases only need to complete the interfiling process, which can be very quick. These types of cases can be approved within the FY, provided USCIS have sent out the RFE for a new Medical in good time. So far on Trackitt, there is a distinct lack of early PD cases reporting receiving an RFE for a new Medical.

b) Those that have never filed an I-485, but whose case now becomes Current under EB2. They are just the same as new non-porting EB2 filers who previously missed the boat. No interfiling is involved, since they do not already have an I-485 to convert from a an EB3 basis to an EB2 basis.

Probably not much chance of being approved within FY2014. Some possibility in October 2014 for very early submitted cases. Most likely later in FY2015. It depends partly on when they can file and whether they choose to include an I-693 or not.

[imdeng]

Question for inquiring minds. We now have confirmation of RFEs up to Oct 2009 PDs. They wouldn't be sending RFEs unless there is at least some chance of dates reaching that far. But - even most optimistic projections don't have dates moving to Oct 2009. So what's going on here?? Especially considering that if one doesn't get approved this year, they will send an RFE for Medical (and I guess EVL) next year again since, as Spec explained beautifully, I-693s will expire again in one year from the date of issue. Any thoughts?? Can dates conceivably move up to Oct 2009 this FY? I, personally, don't see it happening - but what other explanation is there?

[Spectator]

Spec, while organizing the threads, you were wondering if you are writing in a foreign language! On a fun note Yes Spec ! English is a foreign language to all the Indians

Kanmani,

Good one!

Trust you to be so logical.

Languages have never been my strong point - I admire those who are so fluent in a non-native tongue.

I couldn't even begin with a non-roman script language, let alone anything that reads right to left.

Reading the Chinese translations always reminds me how different that language is.